Marital Processes, Arranged Marriage, and Contraception to Limit Fertility

An international transition away from familially arranged marriages toward participation in spouse choice has endured for decades and continues to spread through rural Asia today. Although we know that this transformation has important consequences for childbearing early in marriage, we know much less about longer-term consequences of this marital revolution. Drawing on theories of family and fertility change and a rural Asian panel study designed to measure changes in both marital and childbearing behaviors, this study seeks to investigate these long-term consequences. Controlling for social changes that shape both marital practices and childbearing behaviors, and explicitly considering multiple dimensions of marital processes, we find evidence consistent with an independent, long-standing association of participation in spouse choice with higher rates of contraception to terminate childbearing. These results add a new dimension to the evidence linking revolutions in marital behavior to long-term declines in fertility and suggest that new research should consider a broader range of long-term consequences of changing marital processes.     

Population Dynamics: Poverty,Inequality, and Self-Regulating Fertility Rates

Population growth without a parallel increase in capital impoverishes any society and tends to deepen inequality. The system is dynamic because people who perceive or foresee contracting economic opportunity usually restrict family size. Worsening poverty feeds back into the loop to slow, then stop further population growth.     

An Imperfect Contraceptive Society: Fertility and Contraception in Italy

Italy represents an unexpected and in some ways paradoxical outcome in terms of fertility control: a drop to one of the lowest birth rates in the world has been accompanied by continuing extensive use of traditional methods despite the availability of modern contraception. Using data from 349 interviews conducted in 2005–06 in four Italian cities, we argue that Italian women commonly achieve “unplanned” and desired conceptions through the use of withdrawal and natural methods. While data from other countries reveal similar notions of ambivalence surrounding pregnancy intentions and contraceptive use, Italy stands out for the surprising correlation between highly “managing” the conditions under which children are born and the socially commended approach of “letting births happen.” Such results suggest the need to rethink theoretical understandings of low fertility. Through the use of non‐technological methods, individuals manipulate culturally produced norms and beliefs about the appropriate time to have a child; simultaneously, their actions are embedded in larger cultural, economic, and political processes.     

鼓励生育政策能否提高生育率?——基于生育成本缺口递增的视角

中国总和生育率的下降引发调整生育政策的讨论,但鲜有对鼓励生育政策的效果评估与理论解释.通过马斯洛需求层次理论构建生育成本缺口递增假说,并基于世界人口政策数据库与OECD家庭数据库对基于转移支付的鼓励生育政策进行了效果评估,得出如下结论:第一,生育成本是一种动态结构,需求跃迁导致生育成本缺口增速快于收入增速,进而决定鼓励...     

Women,Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy

Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables’ influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics—namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables—female-related predictors, in particular—have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.     

Fertility and Infertility: Toward an Integrative Research Agenda

In this article, we show that social science research on fertility and infertility consists of largely separate research traditions, despite shared interest in pregnancies and births (or lack thereof). We describe four ways these two traditions differ: (1) publication trajectories and outlets, (2) fields of study and major theoretical frameworks, (3) degree of attention to the other topic, and (4) language and definitions used. We then discuss why future integration of these bodies of research would be beneficial, outline potential steps toward rapprochement, and provide common areas of dialogue that could facilitate and enrich these bodies of research. We offer a more holistic framework using the reproductive career as an extension of existing lifecourse approaches in both fertility and infertility research. We conclude with a brief empirical example and discussion of methodological issues for measuring and modeling reproductive careers.     

On the Modernity of Traditional Contraception: Time and the Social Context of Fertility

Many studies of fertility implicitly equate temporal management, biomedical contraception, and “modernity” on the one hand, and “tradition,” the lack of intentional timing, and uncontrolled fertility on the other. This article questions that equation, focusing on the widespread use of periodic abstinence in southern Cameroon. Drawing on field data and the Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey, the article investigates how local concepts of timing shape both contraceptive choice and the evaluation of methods as “modern” or “traditional.” Cameroonian women prefer periodic abstinence because they perceive it as “modern,” a modernity tied both to the social context in which it is taught and to its unique temporal form. By contrast, Depo‐Provera, pills, and the IUD are seen as less‐than‐modern, because they are less exigent of temporal control. The reliance on a behavioral, rather than technological, contraceptive method parallels the experience of the European fertility transition. Cameroonian women draw on a complex social repertoire in making contraceptive choices; methods are preferred or rejected not only on the basis of their efficacy in averting pregnancy, but also because of their correspondence to models of legitimate social action. Reproductive practices may have social motivations that are unrelated to fertility per se.     

Making Comparisons of Demographic Aggregates more Meaningful: A Case of Life Expectancies and Total Fertility Rates

With the recent emphasis on human development, development researchers are making frequent use of aggregate demographic measures in describing development experiences and more so while linking health and development. And it is often seen that comparison of these demographic aggregates across space and time is naïve given their complex construct on one hand and the implied meaning on the other. Are these comparisons across the board valid for the meanings ascribed to them? Or are the stated achievements as well as projected trends based on them reliable? This paper attempts to illustrate these concerns taking the twin aggregate measures frequently in use namely the life expectancy and Total fertility Rates. The primary focus here has been to link additional dimension of the same phenomenon (referring to survival or fertility here) which does not follow the principle of matched ordering while read along with these aggregates. Taking into account these additional dimensions, the magnitude of the differences in these aggregate measures gets moderated and their comparison across levels (between lower and higher) becomes more consistent.     

Marriage Patterns And Cumulative Fertility In West Malaysia: 1966–1967

Differentials in age at first marriage and being married more than once are discussed for a probability sample of West Malaysian currently married women 15-44 years of age. Both marriage ages and the incidence of multiple marriages vary greatly by race, place of current residence, wife's education, and husband's occupation; and the marriage variables are shown to have significant effects on the cumulative fertility of West Malaysian women. Early marriage leads to higher cumulative fertility and multiple marriages lead to lower cumulative fertility. Since the social groups with the highest proportions of early marriages are also those with the highest incidence of multiple marriages, the marriage variables explain some but not all of the variance in cumulative fertility for West Malaysian social groups. After adjustment for the effects of the marriage variables, rural Indian or Pakistani women still have the highest cumulative fertility and urban Chinese women with more than five years of schooling still have the lowest cumulative fertility.     

Equity,Security and Fertility: A Reaction to Thomas

This paper assesses recent arguments that sustained fertility decline cannot occur in circumstances of inequality, insecurity, and injustice. Naturally, these conditions are to be abhorred. However, the empirical record suggests that none of them acts as an absolute barrier to mass adoption of birth control and subsequent fertility decline. Recent trends in Bangladesh illustrate this point most vividly. One of the greatest fallacies of many fertility theories has been the assumption that there is an economic or social imperative in underdeveloped countries for couples to have many children. To the contrary, the historic norm for all societies has been an average of only about two surviving children per woman, implying an adaptation to low, not high, net fertility.     

MIS Promotes Contraception andReproductive Health: Yandu,Jiangsu

YanduCounty,JiangsuProvincehasmademuchheadwayinimprovingitsfamilyplanningservicesthroughaneffectivemanagementinformationsystem(MIS).DemographicsAreall,300squarekmPopulations920,000Birthratef&perthousandin1999,comparedto'23.65in1990Naturalincreaseratef1.5perthousand(1999)TheDevelopmentofinformationManagementThesystelllwastirstilltroducedin1993.In1994,alltowllsilltilecoulltywereequippedwitllInicrocolllputers.TileMISsoftwareOnthemanagementofcllildbearillg-agewonlell,developedbytheStateFal…     

Landholding and Fertility: A Rejoinder

In this paper the relative time cost of children compared to other types of household tasks, and the relative time cost of producing quantity rather than quality of children is examined. These propositions lie at the heart of much of the literature on the economics of fertility, but they have rarely been examined directly. We employ household time-use data from a study of a large metropolitan area in the United States. Our results cast doubt on the notions that: (a) child-services are more time-costly than other household tasks; (b) that quantity of child-services is more time-costly than quality of child-services. Moreover, there appear to be strong complementarities between child-services and other household tasks, and time spent on child care does not seem to act as an obstacle to working outside the home. Finally, we suggest another economic interpretation of the fertility transition centred not on changes in objective factors exogeneous to the household, but, instead, on the internal economic power structure of the household itself.     

Fertility In England: A Long-Term Perspective

This paper deals with two aspects of long-run fertility trends in England. First detailed and widely comparable fertility measures (Coale's indices) are reconstructed for England from the mid-sixteenth century to the present. Secondly the extent and nature of local and regional variation in those indices is discussed. The calculation of Coale's indices has never previously been attempted for so long a time span. Doing so requires the use of several different sources of information and a new method for combining them. The results provide significant insights into the development of the distinctive English demographic regime. The analysis of spatial patterns makes it apparent that local, rather than regional, variation was the main source of different fertility patterns in the nineteenth century. These patterns are obscured when counties or larger units are made the framework for analysis.     

Fertility differences in Peru: A reconsideration

Abstract In a series of articles by Stycos, Heer and W. H. James, predominantly Indian areas of Peru were reported to have significantly lower levels of fertility than the economically better developed Spanish-speaking areas. Heer and James reported similar findings for Bolivia and Ecuador as well as Peru.     

生育意愿:是确定值还是区间

本文以2015年先后在北京和天津开展的"居民生育意愿和行为研究"为例,探讨个体生育意愿存在区间范围的现象.研究证实,在数量方面,两成以上的人计划生育1到2个孩子,后来由于种种原因生育了1个或者2个.在性别方面,"儿女双全"是大多数人的美好愿望,但是可能仅有不到一成的人会为了实现"儿女双全"而坚持生育两个孩子.有性别偏好并不意味着就会人为选择子女性别,只有拥有强烈性别偏好的人群规模才会与出生性别比升高密切相关.在年龄方面,实际生育子女的年龄在理想生育年龄3岁左右的范围内,都被认为是满意的.充分认识到个体生育意愿并不是一个确定值而是存在一个区间范围,这对于生育水平的预测具有重要的认识论和方法论意义.     

Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition

Our paper focuses on the realization of fertility intentions, exploring a new aspect of the post-communist fertility transition. By making use of a follow-up study, it was possible to compare five European countries and to analyze the chances of realizing short-term, time-dependent fertility intentions. There is always a difference between intention and behavior. It is partly due to demographic and social factors, such as age, parity, partnership status, but once these are accounted for, important differences remain between western European and post-communist countries. In the period after the turn of the millennium, chances of realizing intentions are significantly lower in post-communist countries than in western European countries. The lower chance of realization is a consequence of social anomie originating from discrepancy between slow value shift and the increased dynamism of structural changes.     

Risk and Fertility: A Reply to Robinson

Japanese household structure has changed dramatically over the last two decades, especially with regard to multi-generational co-residence. In this paper, we use logit analysis to investigate the extent to which married Japanese men and women aged 30 to 59 live with their parents and, in particular, how socio-economic and demographic characteristics are associated with co-residence. For men, being the eldest child, being in a lower-status occupation, living in a small town or rural area, being in an arranged marriage, and having a parent without a spouse are all positively associated with co-residence. For women, only demographic variables matter – being the eldest child, having a husband who is not the eldest child, and having a parent without a spouse, lead to a higher probability of co-residence with own parents. For those middle-aged Japanese who are not co-residing with their parents, we analyse the frequency of seeing and telephoning their parents and find that the distance between the residences of members of different generations, as well as other socio-economic and demographic factors, affect the frequency of contact. The study is based on data from the 1988 Mainichi Newspapers/Nihon University Japanese National Family Survey.     

Fertility transition in Arab countries: A re-evaluation

During the two decades extending from the late 1970s, average TFR in Arab countries declined by more than two births per woman. The paper examines changes in the proximate determinants of Arab fertility and evaluates some of the underlying factors that are variously held to have influenced the fertility transition. The proximate and underlying determinants of fertility in Arab countries are compared with those of other regions. Among the factors examined are economic hardship, delayed marriage, and female education and labour force participation. The roles of oil revenues and of the Islamic religion are also considered. An interesting feature is that fertility declined despite continued desires for large families.