THE CULTURE OF CORRUPTION,TAX EVASION,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This study uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the effects of corruption and tax evasion on fiscal policy and economic growth. The model is calibrated to match estimates of tax evasion in developing countries. The calibrated model is able to generate reasonable predictions for net tax rates, the corruption associated with public investment projects, and the negative correlation between corruption and tax revenue. The presence of corruption and evasion is shown to have significant, but not large, negative effects on economic growth. The relatively moderate effects help explain the absence of a robust negative correlation between growth and corruption in cross‐country data. The model also implies that cracking down on tax evasion before addressing corruption can be a bad idea and that higher wages for public officials can improve welfare. (JEL H3, O4)     

Tax rates and economic growth in the OECD countries

This article proposes refined econometric estimates of effective marginal income tax rates for 23 OECD countries from 1951 to 1990. Panel regressions find such measures negatively correlated with economic growth. These results are consistent with endogenous growth theories and opposite to those of most empirical literature, which relies on measures of effective average tax rates. The negative correlation is also robust to consideration of other growth determinants.     

WHO PAYS THE BAR TAB? BEER CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES

Few studies explore the linkages between health behaviors and macroeconomic outcomes. This study uses 1971–2007 state‐level data from the United States to estimate the impact of beer consumption on economic growth. We document that beer consumption has negative effects on economic growth measures once the endogeneity of beer consumption is addressed. Our estimates are robust to a range of specification checks. These findings run parallel to a large body of literature documenting substantial social and economic costs stemming from alcohol use. (JEL I1, O4)     

ECONOMIC GROWTH REGRESSIONS FOR THE AMERICAN STATES: A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

We use extreme-bounds analysis to assess the sensitivity of numerous control variables identified in the state growth literature. We employ annual panel data on the American states to identify which variables are robust to small changes in the conditioning information set. The results provide a set of core variables as a starting point for future research that relies on state growth regressions. The findings also demonstrate that several important conclusions in the literature depend on how variables are measured. ( JEL R11, O23, C23, 018)     

Verteilungskoalitionen und Demokratische Staatsstrukturen als Determinanten der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung?

This comment critically focuses upon Volker Kunz’s (KFfSS Vol. 52, 2000: 195–225) empirical findings concerning the political and institutional underpinnings of economic development in the OECD world. It is argued that a most similar systems design is inappropriate to explore the political sources of economic growth. Reanalyzing the determinants of economic growth rates in a cross-section of 21 OECD countries provides little evidence for a political dimension of economic development. More specifically, I cannot replicate his findings that consensus democracy and distributional coalitions hamper economic growth. It is shown that long-term economic growth rates first and foremost are determined by economic catch-up resulting from differentials in initial levels of economic development.     

Theoretical Implications of Regional Effects

Local economic institutions (systems of property rights and rules of land use) influenced the course of economic change in European history, as well as state formation and religious change. In this paper, I outline the theoretical implications of these regional effects. None of our existing macrolevel theories and explanations of the "rise of the West" can adequately incorporate them, so I present an alternative theory, based on rational choice premises. Yet the existence of these regional effects also highlights the deficiencies of a rational choice theoretical approach. First, the approach is unable to explain historical contexts, institutional legacies, or the effects of timing, which were vital for outcomes of social change but that lie outside the model itself. Second, although it can be very useful, the model of the actor motivated by material self-interest often proved inadequate in historical situations. Solutions are suggested.     

The Socioeconomic Determinants of the Age at First Marriage among Women in Hong Kong

This paper analyzes the determinants of the age at first marriage among women using an integrated approach incorporating social, familial, and economic factors. Hazard analysis was applied to an original data set for Hong Kong containing 1,024 observations compiled on the basis of a household survey with respondents selected by random sampling. Our findings support the human capital hypothesis, which predicts that women with higher educational attainment and stronger career commitment tend to marry later. In addition, we find that social and family background characteristics are also important determinants of the age at first marriage, including how strongly traditional values and ties to the natal family are held by the women. This research was funded by grants from the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and the Faculty Research Committee of the Hong Kong Baptist University, respectively. I would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers of this journal for their valuable comments.     

TAXPAYER WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR HEALTH INSURANCE REFORM: A CONTINGENT VALUATION ANALYSIS

A key criterion for evaluating policies to expand health insurance coverage is weighing the costs of such policies against the willingness of the public to pay for coverage expansions. We use new panel survey data from New York State to estimate residents' willingness to pay (WTP) to expand public insurance coverage. Using a nonparametric double‐bounded contingent valuation (CV) approach, we specifically ask residents about their WTP to reduce the rate of uninsurance in the state. Our results imply an aggregate lower‐bound WTP of over $2,800 per year to cover one person. We also analyze heterogeneity in WTP by sub‐group and changes in individual WTP over time between 2008 and 2010. We find that a large majority of residents are willing to pay additional taxes to reduce the number of uninsured in the state, and that average WTP remained remarkably stable despite the economic downturn and the politically polarized discussions surrounding the Affordable Care Act. Decomposing the changes in individual WTP, we find that economic factors related to the recession, including changes in income and employment status, cannot explain changes in individual WTP, whereas individual changes in political opinions about health insurance reform between 2008 and 2010 are strongly correlated with changes in WTP. (JEL H20, H42, H51, H75, I13)     

DOES SOCIAL CAPITAL PROMOTE SAFETY ON THE ROADS?

I present evidence that social capital reduces traffic accidents and related death and injury, using data from a 10‐year panel of 48 U.S. states. The econometric challenge is to distinguish the causal effects of social capital from bias resulting from its correlation with unobservable characteristics by state that influence road risks. I accomplish this by employing snow depth as an instrument, and by restricting attention to summertime accidents. My results show that social capital has a statistically significant and sizable negative effect on crashes, traffic fatalities, serious traffic injuries, and pedestrian fatalities that holds up across a range of specifications. (JEL R41, I18, Z13)     

INEQUALITY AND GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES: WHY PHYSICAL AND HUMAN CAPITAL MATTER

We investigate the relationship between economic growth and top income inequality under the influence of human and physical capital accumulation, using an annual panel of U.S. state‐level data. Our analysis is based upon the “unified” framework offered by Galor and Moav (2004) while the empirics account for cross‐section dependence, parameter heterogeneity, and endogeneity, in nonstationary series. We conclude that changes in inequality do not influence growth, neither in the short run nor in the long run in the United States as a whole in the 1929–2013 period. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of overall income inequality measures. These findings provide support for the theoretical prediction of the unified theory of inequality and growth, according to which the growth effect of inequality becomes insignificant in the latest stages of economic development that the United States experiences during our period of investigation. Therefore, future policies aiming at moderating the concentration at the upper end of income distribution are not likely to have adverse growth consequences in developed countries such as the United States. (JEL I21, O47, C23)     

The mountain stream of infant development

Development is complex. It encompasses interacting domains, at multiple levels, across nested time scales. Embracing the complexity of development—while addressing the challenges inherent to studying infants—requires researchers to make tough decisions about what to study, why, how, where, and when. My own view is inspired by a developmental systems approach, and echoed in Esther Thelen's (2005) mountain stream metaphor. Like a river that carves its course, the active infant navigates the social and physical environment and generates rich inputs that propel learning and development. Drawing from my experiences, I offer some recommendations to guide research on infants. I encourage researchers to embrace discovery science; to observe infants in ecologically valid settings; to recognize the active and adaptive nature of infant behavior; to break down silos and consider the nonobvious; and to adopt full transparency in all aspects of research. I draw on cascading influences in infant play, language, and motor domains to illustrate the value of a bottom-up, cross-domain, collaborative approach.     

LEGISLATIVE TURNOVER,FISCAL POLICY,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. STATE LEGISLATURES

Increased turnover among legislators can make them short‐sighted, affecting fiscal policy and economic growth. We exploit the exogenous variation in legislative turnover induced by term limit laws and by redistricting in the 50 U.S. states, finding that increased turnover increases capital spending by state governments, which may be designed to constrain future governments. The changes may cause long‐run distortions in the economy, reducing long‐term economic growth. (JEL H72, H73, H76)     

An analysis of well-being in retirement: The role of pensions,health, and ‘voluntariness’ of retirement

This paper examines a wide range of determinants of retiree well-being of retirees. Using data from the 2000 Health and Retirement Study, increases in economic factors such as income lead to higher well-being, although relative income has a larger effect than absolute income. The strongest predictors are the voluntariness of entering retirement, pension characteristics, and health. Retirees “forced” to retire or have defined contribution pensions or bad health have significantly lower well-being. The results suggest a more nuanced approach in addressing retiree well-being than just a focus on the economic well-being of retirees.     

Midwifery in Colorado: A case study in the politics of professionalization

This paper uses documentary evidence, interviews, and participant observation to examine the professionalizing activities of lay midwives in Colorado. It shows that professionalization for midwives is primarily a political process. In order to gain state recognition and professional autonomy, lay midwives were forced into the political arena, where they encountered resistance from economic competitors. I argue that medical dominance over childbirth practices and professional segmentation between lay midwives and certified nurse midwives were the primary reasons Colorado lay midwives failed to achieve professional status.I would thank the Colorado midwives for their cooperation in this study. My thanks also to the reviewers for their comments on earlier drafts.     

The determinants of modern Maltese emigration

The author evaluates studies by Huw R. Jones and Russell King concerning the determinants of emigration from Malta and tests a new set of migration functions using cross-sectional and time-series data for the inter-censal years 1957 to 1967. Jones and King concluded that emigration was influenced more by socio-demographic factors than by economic forces. In the present article, the author concludes that economic factors did influence the decision to migrate from Malta. The policy implications of these findings are also considered. (summary in FRE, SPA)     

The third sector in welfare policies in Italy: the contradictions of a protected market

The paper describes how the involvement of non-profit organisations (NPOs) in welfare politics in Italy has historically developed in a mutual accommodation with the state, which has prevented the growth and the public recognition of an independent third sector. Using data from official statistics and recent research on non-profits, three analytical dimensions of the relationship between State and the third sector are considered: the resource exchange; the division of responsibility for delivering public services; and the dynamics of social policy making. The study indicates that distinctive features of the ‘welfare mix’ in Italy have been: the attribution of public status to many NPOs as a consequence of an arrangement between Church and state; the weakness of state guidance, in spite of the generous economic assistance provided to NPOs by the state; the substitutive role of NPOs in providing basic public services; and the emergence of informal arrangements between public authorities and NPOs mediated by political patronage. I thank Ralph Kramer, Ugo Ascoli, Perri 6, and three anonymous referees ofVoluntas for helpful comments they provided on an earlier draft of this paper. My research was supported by a grant from the National Council of Research of Italy, and through facilities provided by the School of Social Welfare at the University of California, Berkeley. An earlier version of this paper is published in P. 6 and I. Vidal (eds)Delivering Welfare: Re-positioning Non-profit and Co-operative Action in Western European Welfare States, CIES, Barcelona, 1994.     

The Determinants of Human Trafficking: A US Case Study

Human trafficking is a global problem. In this paper, I seek to find the determinants of international human trafficking by using the US as a case study. Previous studies have drawn primarily from the migration literature, proposing hypotheses that focus on economic factors, the level of democracy and other “push” factors in the countries of origin that create incentives for individuals to migrate. However, we know that international human trafficking is an involuntary form of migration and may be influenced by additional factors. I hypothesize that factors that influence the cost–benefit calculation of the trafficker determine the volume of human trafficking, in addition to the factors that affect the size of the pool of trafficking victims. I test my theory using the negative binomial regression model. My results indicate that while income inequality within a country and poor protection of women's rights are likely to produce a specific pool of victims, it is the reduction of operational costs for the trafficker that increases the number of individuals who are trafficked.     

Assessing Bias in the Estimation of Causal Effects: Rosenbaum Bounds on Matching Estimators and Instrumental Variables Estimation with Imperfect Instruments

Propensity score matching provides an estimate of the effect of a "treatment" variable on an outcome variable that is largely free of bias arising from an association between treatment status and observable variables. However, matching methods are not robust against "hidden bias" arising from unobserved variables that simultaneously affect assignment to treatment and the outcome variable. One strategy for addressing this problem is the Rosenbaum bounds approach, which allows the analyst to determine how strongly an unmeasured confounding variable must affect selection into treatment in order to undermine the conclusions about causal effects from a matching analysis. Instrumental variables (IV) estimation provides an alternative strategy for the estimation of causal effects, but the method typically reduces the precision of the estimate and has an additional source of uncertainty that derives from the untestable nature of the assumptions of the IV approach. A method of assessing this additional uncertainty is proposed so that the total uncertainty of the IV approach can be compared with the Rosenbaum bounds approach to uncertainty using matching methods. Because the approaches rely on different information and different assumptions, they provide complementary information about causal relationships. The approach is illustrated via an analysis of the impact of unemployment insurance on the timing of reemployment, the postunemployment wage, and the probability of relocation, using data from several panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP).     

“You Know,Abraham Was Really the First Immigrant”: Religion and Transnational Migration

The purpose of this article is to summarize what we know about the role that religion plays in transnational migration and to outline a strategy for further research in this area. While migration scholars now generally acknowledge the salience of migrants' economic, social, and political transnational activities, we have largely overlooked the ways in which religious identities and practices also enable migrants to sustain memberships in multiple locations. My goals in this article are threefold. First, I provide a brief overview of related bodies of work on global, diasporic and immigrant religion and differentiate them from studies of migrants' transnational religious practices. Second, I selectively summarize what we have learned about the role of religion in transnational migration from prior research. Finally, I propose an approach to future research on these questions.¹     

Social Change in Postwar Japan: A Theoretical Consideration

Abstract  The objective of this paper is to examine social change in postwar Japan using the concept of social structure. There are two ways to conceptualize social structure. I would like to call the first, established by Radcliffe-Brown and Parsons, "Structure as a Pattern," and the other, established by Levi-Strauss, "Structure as a Rule." It is clear that postwar social change in Japan has brought about a new economic order, but it is also true that Japanese society is beginning to accept a new system of values. My conclusion is that the structure of the Japanese social system has. under the pressure of internationalization, reached a crucial turning point.