A Decisional Framework of Offshoring: Integrating Insights from 25 Years of Research to Provide Direction for Future*

Mirroring the growing trend for firms to support their operations by locating activities abroad, research on the practice of offshoring has increased considerably in recent years. However, despite the mounting research, understanding of the key factors influencing decision‐making for offshoring remains surprisingly limited due to fragmentation. In this study, we synthesize and integrate insights from different research domains in order to develop a comprehensive decisional framework for key offshoring decisions. The integrative decisional framework is based on a systematic review of offshoring research published in the most influential management and business journals in the past 25 years. In addition to providing a snapshot of the state of research on decision‐making for offshoring, this study aims to stimulate future research by identifying promising research opportunities. In particular, we propose that future research should use alternative theories to incorporate overlooked aspects of decision‐making, integrate different theories to account for the interdependencies between decisions, and adopt a portfolio perspective that considers each decision as part of an overall offshoring strategy.     

On operations research and value conflicts

The paper addresses the question of how operations research (OR) ought to handle decision problems that involve value conflicts. First, we note that early OR was considered essentially value free within the OR community, with a mechanistic systems perspective, although some voiced concern that an analyst should not detach herself from the consequences of her work. Then we propose a value conflict scale, which we use to assess the conflict levels in a small sample of OR applications. We then turn to value identification. In practise, organizational value statements include many kinds of values, and we discuss how values can be sorted out according to ethical categories, which helps in identifying consequentialistic decision criteria. The next question is how values can be enacted in a decision process. We review findings in neuroscience, which indicate that intra-personal decision-making takes place in a field of tension between deliberation and affect. The implication is that low level conflicts may leave decision-makers too cold for values to be enacted and therefore want infusion of emotion. On the other hand, emotions in high-level conflicts may run too high to give reason a chance. Emotions, therefore, need to be tempered and this can be achieved through at least two strategies: a focus on consequences rather than virtues and rules and discourse ethics. These are the subjects of the two last parts of the paper. We conclude by proposing five ethical rules for OR analysis of value conflicts. An analyst should not regard herself as being detached from the decision that are made, should be conscious that good decision-making requires temperate emotions that balance affect and deliberation, should promote focus on consequences, should promote the view that stakeholders have intrinsic value; they should not be treated instrumentally and should encourage fair processes to identify stakeholder values.     

The Impact of Product Returns and Retailer's Service Investment on Manufacturer's Channel Strategies*

We study the distribution channel decision of a manufacturer who considers whether to add an online channel (direct channel) to its brick‐and‐mortar retailer (indirect channel). The retailer faces the opportunity to invest in store assistance to help consumers choose products and thus reduce product returns. Special attention is given to the impact of product returns and retailer's store assistance investment on manufacturer's dual channel decision. We examine conditions under which the manufacturer uses dual channels and how various relevant factors affect its channel decision under two settings, depending on whether the retailer has its own online store or not. When the retailer does not have its online store, we find that (i) the addition of the direct channel raises the wholesale price; (ii) the direct channel addition hurts the retailer if the nonreplacement rate is low; (iii) the manufacturer has a lower incentive to add the direct channel when the retailer's service cost is lower or its returns reduction rate from service investment is higher; and (iv) the manufacturer should treat its own returns handling cost as a key factor in its channel structure decision. In addition, when the retailer operates an online store, we find that the manufacturer may have an incentive to add a direct channel such that both firms own direct channels.     

Understanding Organizational Safety Using Value-Focused Thinking

Decision analysis is recognized as the right way to make risk management decisions, using probabilistic techniques to assess the accident risk. It is also accepted that the decisions that individuals in the organization make affect the likelihood of an accident and thus managerial and organizational factors should be included in the risk modeling process. However, decision analytic techniques have not been used to understand the decisions that are made by these individuals. The initial domain for this research is marine transportation. We use the framework of value-focused thinking in order to understand safety decisions made within our research partner organization, a major domestic oil tanker operator. We describe the results of interviews held with managers and employees from this organization. Through these interviews, we sought to understand the values these experts apply in their roles within the organization and the objectives they seek to achieve to contribute to its overall safety performance. The end result is a framework that not only portrays the fundamental objectives of safe operations for various roles in the organization, but also interconnects these different decision contexts. We believe that this approach is fundamentally different from those used in previous work and that this is an interesting application of value-focused thinking.     

A Modeling Framework for Supply Chain Simulation: Opportunities for Improved Decision Making*

Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and the modeling capabilities of the simulation tool. This combination should provide the basis for a realistic simulation model, which is both transparent and complete. The need for transparency is especially strong for supply chains as they involve (semi)autonomous parties each having their own objectives. Mutual trust and model effectiveness are strongly influenced by the degree of completeness of each party's insight into the key decision variables. Ideally, visual interactive simulation models present an important communicative means for realizing the required overview and insight. Unfortunately, most models strongly focus on physical transactions, leaving key decision variables implicit for some or all of the parties involved. This especially applies to control structures, that is, the managers or systems responsible for control, their activities and their mutual attuning of these activities. Control elements are, for example, dispersed over the model, are not visualized, or form part of the time‐indexed scheduling of events. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that explicitly addresses the modeling of control structures. First, we will conduct a literature survey with the aim of listing simulation model qualities essential for supporting successful decision making on supply chain design. Next, we use this insight to define an object‐oriented modeling framework that facilitates supply chain simulation in a more realistic manner. This framework is meant to contribute to improved decision making in terms of recognizing and understanding opportunities for improved supply chain design. Finally, the use of the framework is illustrated by a case example concerning a supply chain for chilled salads.     

Uses and Misuses of Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in Environmental Decision Making

We focus on a class of multicriteria methods that are commonly used in environmental decision making—those that employ the weighted linear average algorithm (and this includes the popular analytic hierarchy process (AHP)). While we do not doubt the potential benefits of using formal decision methods of this type, we draw attention to the consequences of not using them well. In particular, we highlight a property of these methods that should not be overlooked when they are applied in environmental and wider decision-making contexts: the final decision or ranking of options is dependent on the choice of performance scoring scales for the criteria when the criteria weights are held constant. We compare this "sensitivity" to a well-known criticism of the AHP, and we go on to describe the more general lesson when it comes to using weighted linear average methods—a lesson concerning the relationship between criteria weights and performance scoring scales.     

决策支持理论研究

本文提出了开环与闭环决策系统的概念,在此基础上初步讨论了决策支持理论,并提出了决策支持系统工程与系统集成的研究框架。在决策科学中,现在绝大部分的研究工作集中在对开环决策系统的研究上,这对于研究决策与决策支持是必须的,但这还远不够,如果要真正提高决策及决策支持的有效性,就必须研究闭环决策系统,必须把决策问题识别与求解放在统一的框架中进行研究。     

Technology assessment: Need and motivation of industry

The problems of decision making when the decision concerns large-scale technical plants have increased, largely due to the difficulties of assessing environmental factors. Technology assessment is an approach which can assist in undertaking the necessary analysis which will expose the social impact, participation of affected groups, and the evaluation of political processes for large-scale technical developments. This paper examines the obstacles to the use of Technology assessment techniques by industry and in particular concentrates upon the problems of forecasting future technological change. The paper examines the view that TA is primarily a concept of political decision making and places the concepts of politics in the broadest sense, not merely in a narrow partly political framework. Finally, the paper examines the arguments for and against quantitative evaluation and claims that TA, used properly, can provide valuable qualitative as well as quantitative insights into the impact of processes upon the political, social and economic environment. Thus, suggesting that TA is a technique of forecasting which companies that are involved in the development of major, and therefore heavy resource-consuming, projects should consider the use of this technique as part of their appraisal process.     

坚持还是放弃? 基于前景理论的新生创业者承诺升级研究

坚持或者放弃创业是新生创业者面临的重要且艰难的抉择。已有研究主要基于理性决策的假设分析个体特征、创业活动以及创业环境对坚持或者放弃创业的影响。与已有研究不同,本文认为新生创业者的坚持不是完全理性的决策,其中存在承诺升级现象。研究基于前景理论(框架效应和反射效应)分析了坚持创业中的承诺升级,识别了可能的影响因素:前期投入时间、前期投入资金、创业计划的规范性、技术创业和心理预算,并利用面向中国新生创业者的动态跟踪调查数据(Chinese Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics,CPSED)进行了实证检验。针对两类样本(所有273个样本、没有盈利的182个样本)的实证研究取得了一致的结论 :前期投入的时间越多,新生创业者越倾向于坚持创业;前期是否投入资金以及创业计划的规范性对是否坚持创业的影响不显著;存在心理预算负向影响新生创业者的坚持;与非技术创业者相比较,技术创业者更倾向于坚持创业。     

Supply chain configuration conundrum: how does the pharmaceutical industry mitigate disturbance factors?

How a supply chain (SC) is configured can have a significant impact on the performance of global firms. More specifically, disturbance factors (i.e. those factors associated with uncertainty and risk) are increasingly important considerations. This paper focuses on endogenous, exogenous and environment-related SC disturbance factors and their relative importance when configuring global SCs. Three alternative scenarios of SC configurations for European-based pharmaceutical firms are identified – insource nearshore, outsource nearshore and outsource offshore. Through a multi-phase, mixed-methods approach we find that the top five disturbance factors managers should be aware of while configuring their SCs are quality defects, unforeseen and random interruptions in manufacturing processes, order processing difficulties, untimely delivery of products and a mismatch between market demand and supplier responsiveness. This study is able to provide insights into the impact of disturbance factors on the SC configuration strategy for Big Pharmas (BPs). We show that SC disturbances influenced the decision to bring production back home (reshoring) or to a closer location (nearshoring). To mitigate the effects of disturbances many BPs recalibrated their SC configurations by insourcing core products, outsourcing non-core products offshore and developing offshore insourcing capabilities through ‘captives’.     

固定价格与英式拍卖同时使用时顾客行为分析

很多网站采用在英式拍卖中加入固定价格选项的方式销售多件同类商品.我们证明了,在此规则下存在一个弱占优投标策略.若顾客对商品的估价低于固定价格,那么,当拍卖价格低于他的估价时,该顾客参与拍卖,且以自己的估价作为报价是他的弱占优投标策略;否则,当拍卖价格超过他的估价时,他退出拍卖.若顾客对商品的估价高于或等于固定价格,他会在参与拍卖和接受固定价格之间进行选择;若他参与拍卖,将固定价格作为报价是他的弱占优投标策略.我们发现,该顾客是选择参与拍卖、还是选择以固定价格购买主要依赖于顾客到达拍卖时距离拍卖结束的剩余时间.最后,通过算例,我们对影响顾客参与策略的因素进行了数值分析并得到了一些结论.     

Multiobjective investment planning under uncertainty

In this paper we consider the relevance of various planning methods and decision criteria to multiobjective investment planning under uncertainty. Assuming that a natural reaction to uncertainty is to operate so as to leave open as many good options as possible (as opposed to maximizing subjective expected utility) we argue that the planning process should concentrate on analyzing the effects of the initial decision, and that for this exercise the classical methods of mixed integer programming are inappropriate. We demonstrate how the technique of dynamic programming can be extended to take account of multiple objectives and use dynamic programming as a framework in which we analyze the robustness of an initial decision in the face of various types of uncertainty. In so doing we also analyze the risks involved in both the planning and decision making functions.     

The Accuracy of Cross-Validation Results in Forecasting

The widespread use of regression analysis as a business forecasting tool and renewed interest in the use of cross-validation to aid in regression model selection make it essential that decision makers fully understand methods of cross-validation in forecasting, along with the advantages and limitations of such analysis. Only by fully understanding the process can managers accurately interpret the important implications of statistical cross-validation results in their determination of the robustness of regression forecasting models. Through a multiple regression analysis of a large insurance company's customer database, the Herzberg equation for determining the criterion of validity [11] and analysis of samples of different size from the two regions covered by the database, we illustrate the use of statistical cross-validation and test a set of factors hypothesized to be related to the statistical accuracy of validation. We find that increasing sample size will increase reliability. When the magnitude of population model differences is small, validation results are found to be unreliable, and increasing sample size has little or no effect on reliability. In addition, the relative fit of the model for the derivative sample and the validation sample has an impact on validation accuracy, and should be used as an indicator of when further analysis should be undertaken. Furthermore, we find that the probability distribution of the population independent variables has no effect on validation accuracy.     

Supply Chain Contract Design: Impact of Bounded Rationality and Individual Heterogeneity

In this article, we model various forms of non‐optimizing behavior in a newsvendor setting, including biases such as recency, reinforcement, demand chasing, and anchoring, as well as unsystematic decision errors. We assume that a newsvendor may evaluate decisions by examining both past outcomes and future expected payoffs. Our model is motivated by laboratory observations under several types of supply chain contracts. Ordering decisions are found to follow multi‐modal distributions that are dependent on contract structures and incentives. We differ from previous research by using statistics to determine which behavioral factors are applicable to each decision maker. A great deal of heterogeneity was discovered, indicating the importance of calibrating a contract to the individual. Our analysis also shows that the profit performance and the effectiveness of co‐ordinating contracts can be affected by non‐optimizing behaviors significantly. We conclude that, in addition to the aggregate order quantities, the decision distributions should be considered in designing contracts.     

Ex Ante and Ex Post: What Does Rod Stewart Really Know Now?1

Do we really know whether or not we have “maximized” utility, or do we just know that we are “happy” or “sad”? We argue that we can never know objectively whether or not utility has been maximized; however, people acting on a free market are sufficiently close to the decision as to be able to hazard a better guess about their opportunity costs than policy makers.     

How hot cognition can lead us astray: The effect of anger on strategic decision making

Anger is one of the most frequently experienced emotions. However, the extant research on the impact of anger has predominantly focused on its effect on decision making in simple decision tasks. Strategic decision making differs significantly from such tasks, as it is characterized by complexity, ambiguity, and a high information load. To better understand the impact of emotions on strategic decision making, we investigate the effect of anger on decision quality and decision speed. To do so, we carry out a strategy field experiment with 52 executives in which we use participants’ psychophysiological skin conductance response. In line with psychological research on non-strategic decisions, we find that anger negatively influences decision quality in strategic decision making. However, in contrast to predictions made by research on non-strategic decisions, we find no increase in decision speed among angry participants. We thus extend extant theory by suggesting that anger impacts the quality of strategic decisions but does not affect important process characteristics such as decision speed.     

AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF COMPUTER-ASSISTED DECISION ANALYSIS*

Decision analysis tools often are used in semistructured and ill-structured situations. While some researchers have argued that computerized decision analysis programs may improve decision quality in such situations, research support for this assertion is weak. In this laboratory study, business students used a computerized decision-analysis program with short strategic-management cases to prepare decision reports. Independent raters' perceptions of aided and unaided decision performance were contrasted, attitudes of students toward the program were assessed, individual differences were correlated with attitudes, and the program's impact on students' perceptions of their decision processes and performance was examined. Student attitudes toward the computerized aid were favorable, and individual differences in reactions generally were as predicted. However, the program did not improve the independent ratings of students' decision reports and recommendations. These findings suggest that computerized decision aids should be adopted cautiously. If such aids result in positive user affect and heightened decision confidence without corresponding improvements in decision quality, they may be dysfunctional. Rigorous research methodologies which incorporate independent evaluations of analyses and decisions are recommended for use in future research on computerized decision-analysis programs.     

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate.     

Strategic planning in an age of uncertainty

Strategic planning and decision making in the face of uncertainty have always presented a serious challenge to top management, but the present scale of uncertainty is unprecedented. Decision makers used to be able to rely on the past to predict the trends of the future. Now they are increasingly being forced to make important decisions that depend upon highly uncertain external factors for which the past offers little guidance. In all areas of business and government, there is a vital need to understand and implement procedures that enable decision makers to deal more effectively with uncertainty for planning and allocating their organizations' resources.Because of differences in their social, political and economic environments, European and Japanese managers are today affected by many acute areas of uncertainty— such as industrial democracy, floating exchange rates, changing social and political values, growing environmental awareness, government regulation, technological change, pollution control regulation, energy cost, and raw material availability—earlier than their counterparts in the U.S.A. These uncertainties affect not only private sector manufacturing industries, but also financial and service industries as well as nationalized industries and government organizations.This article shows how ineffective methods of dealing with uncertainty can lead to serious mistakes with costly consequences. The cost of overconfidence and people's natural but futile tendency to ignore or to try to eliminate uncertainty is illustrated by the crises seen recently in the world steel and shipbuilding industries. The article then demonstrates how decision analysis procedures that focus directly on the major decision points in the strategic plan enable executives not only to include uncertainty directly in their strategic planning, but also to increase their understanding of the decision process and their ability to communicate the results to others.