MFN tariff treatment of imports from China: Effects on U.S. employment

This article estimates the effects on U.S. output and employment of granting most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff treatment to imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC). Import demand elasticities are used to estimate changes in imports resulting from the lower tariff rates. A highly disaggregated U.S. input-output table and labor-output ratios are used to convert changes in imports into changes in domestic output and employment at a detailed sectorial level. U.S. import restraints on the textile and apparel industry are incorporated into the analysis. The article explores the implications of increased imports from the PRC for U.S., PRC, and LDC policy makers.     

Are Subsidies to be Blamed? A Reexamination of U.S. Countervailing Duty on Hog Imports From Canada

A dramatic increase in U.S. hog imports from Canada triggered a successful countervail action against Canada in 1985, and resulted in an import tariff. This paper finds Canadian subsidies were not a major factor explaining increased hog exports, rather, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar played a larger role. More importantly, we find that hog imports from Canada did not “injure” the U.S. industry. These results imply the U.S. hog countervail duty was the outcome of rent-seeking activities rather than due to economic factors.     

Automobile prices and protection: The U.S.-Japan trade restraint

We examine the effects of the U.S.-Japan trade restraint on automobile prices and quality upgrading, for both Japanese imports and American small cars. From April 1981 to April 1984 the suggested retail price of all Japanese models increased by 15.8 percent, or 5.3 percent per year. We find that nearly the entire amount of this rise can be explained by the upgrading of individual models. This upgrading may benefit consumers who would purchase a luxury import in any case, but harms those who desire the basic imports. In addition to upgrading, we conclude that a second cost of the trade restraint has been to prevent the yen depreciation from being passed onto American consumers, in terms of lower imported auto prices. For U.S. small cars we find a 9.1 percent rise in the suggested retail price, or 3 percent per year, with a fraction of this amount due to model upgrading. If the yen depreciation had led to lower import prices without the trade restraint, then we expect that U.S. auto prices would have been lower, too.     

The impact of the Soviet Union upon the U.S. feed/livestock sector— An assessment

In this article, the impact of volatile Soviet Union corn imports on the U.S. feed/livestock sector is analyzed using an econometric model. The model's attention to supply response when feed price changes enables it to determine the nature of the effect of exogenous shocks across feed and livestock sectors. The model is used in historical simulation to demonstrate the effects of actual and alternative paths of variable Soviet import demand and to explore the difficulties of deriving a stabilizatior policy for these linked sectors.     

Import competition, employment and wages in U.S. manufacturing

This paper uses cointegration analysis to examine if employment and wages in the U.S. manufacturing sector exhibit any long run relationship with import competition. While overall the cointegration analysis supports the results reported in Revenga’s (1992) panel study it indicates that in the long run a positive correlation between import price and employment and/or a negative correlation between import price and wage are sector sensitive. There is also a considerable variation in the magnitude of employment and wage elasticities.     

The international trade in automobiles: Explaining short-run changes in the import share of the United States market, 1979–1981

This paper examines the underlying causes for the rapid rise of the import share of the U.S. automobile market in the 1979 to 1981 time frame. Using data on the import share by state for the 1975–1979 period, a logit model is developed explaining movements in the import share. The principal purpose is to demonstrate that the rapid growth of the import share was due to a unique set of short-run factors such as constrained U.S. small car production capacity and exceptional consumer preference for fuel efficient automobiles. The sensitivity of the import share to changes in different factors is examined. The article concludes that U.S. policy makers concerned with the long-run viability of the U.S. automobile industry should discriminate between changes in import penetration caused by short-run factors and those caused by a secular deterioration of the U.S. comparative advantage in automobile production.     

Modeling manufactured imports: Methodological issues with evidence from Australia

This paper investigates the relationship between manufactured import flow to Australia, and relative prices and domestic economic activity net of cyclical demand effects over the period 1981Q3 to 1991Q2. This is done through the estimation of import demand functions for total manufactured imports and nine major import categories using the general-to-specific modeling approach. We find that the homotheticity assumption on activity elasticity is met in most cases. The price elasticity estimates for individual categories range from 0.32 to 2.1, with a weighted average of 0.52. We also find some evidence of upward bias in price elasticity estimates when an aggregate import function is employed in a context where a significant portion of imports are subject to quantitative restrictions (QRs).     

Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies

We analyze the spillovers of Western economic sanctions against Russia into twenty-seven transition economies of the former Soviet Union, and Central and Eastern Europe. These spillovers are measured in terms of their impact on bilateral trade and direct investments for the period of 2014–2018. We construct a new dataset to quantify each episode of Western/US sanctions against Russia. The gravity models of bilateral trade and direct investment are used and the data analysis is conducted using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood econometric technique. We estimate that the Western and U.S. sanctions against Russia spilled over into third-party small countries. These sanctions resulted in the significant decline of exports from transition economies, Russian imports to transition economies, and Russian direct investments to transition economies. Interestingly, the direct investments to Russia from transition economies sharply increased during the same period. The quantitative estimates of the spillovers suggest the following cumulative changes. Due to an imposed sanction type (e.g., against an individual, entity or sector) each episode of Western/U.S. sanction resulted in the decline of aforementioned indicators in the range of 10.9–30.5-million-dollar/5.6–16.9-million-dollar of exports from transition economies, 6.3–17.7-million-dollar/3.3–9.8-million-dollar of Russian imports to transition economies, and 3.4–9.4-million-dollar/1.7–5.2-million-dollar of Russian direct investments to transition economies. The direct investments to Russia from transition economies increased by 10.9–30.6-million-dollar/5.7–17-million-dollar, respectively.     

Short run responses to foreign exchange crises

This paper constructs a short-run general equilibrium model for an LDC-type economy. Some key features are the possibility of excess capacity and the presence of quantitative restrictions on exports and imports. A rich variety of pricing possibilities for tradeable goods is allowed for, including “water in the tariff” as well as domestic prices exceeding world prices with binding import quotas.The model is used to analyze alternative responses to a foreign-exchange crisis. Import controls, devaluation and cuts in government expenditures are compared. We find that: i) import quotas can worsen the balance of trade, ii) rationing foreign exchange for noncompetitive imports is stagflationary, increasing prices even under excess capacity, iii) a devaluation has strong effects on income distribution, although output and employment expand, and iv) cuts in government spending are deflationary but the income distribution effects are neutral.     

《日美半导体协议》冲击下的日本半导体产业发展研究——基于日本高科技企业经营业绩的分析

自20世纪70年代末,在"本政府的支持下,"本半导体产业实现跨越式发展,进而引发"美间的半导体摩擦。美国采取限制进口、阻碍"本引入先进技术等措施抑制"本半导体产业发展,"美两国还于1986年签订了《"美半导体协议》。通过分析"本高科技企业经营业绩的微观数据发现:《"美半导体协议》在短期内对"本半导体企业的营业收入、净利润及净资产收益率等企业竞争力指标产生了负面影响;"本半导体企业通过调整生产经营方式、合理布局产业链、调整经营结构、加强自主创新等方式,在中期内一定程度改善了企业的生产经营状况,但"本半导体产业的持续发展受到阻碍。在中美经贸摩擦严峻的背景下,中国的高科技企业或可从中获得启示。     

美国核政策调整与国际核不扩散机制的前景

国际核不扩散机制是美国防止核扩散,限制对手核力量以实现自身利益的重要手段,是美国维系其主导的世界核秩序的重要干预变量;而核不扩散机制的内在运行逻辑,也使得美国核政策成为决定该机制发展方向的最主要变量。因此,奥巴马政府核政策的调整,势必对核不扩散机制的维持和发展产生深刻影响。中国是现行核不扩散机制的重要参与方,美国核政策的调整必将通过国际核不扩散机制这一干预变量给中国造成直接或间接影响。     

Protectionism: An analysis from project LINK

The LINK system of world trade is used to examine present tendencies toward protectionism. In protectionist scenarios we increase the prices of manufactured imports into 13 LINK-OECD countries by 5, 10, and 20 percent respectively, for 1978–1979. If a country's import equations do not depend significantly on relative price, we impose corresponding quantitative import restrictions of 5, 10, and 20 percent. Smaller OECD countries, developing countries, and socialist countries are assumed to be nonprotectionist in these scenarios. The discrepancies between the values of leading variables in the protectionist scenarios and in a baseline case show the effects of the different degrees of protectionism assumed. The results describe and validate Adam Smith's principles of the gains from free trade.     

扩张与收缩：论美国外交的周期性

自1801年托马斯·杰斐逊总统上台以来，美国外交即呈现出“扩张——收缩——再扩张——再收缩……”的周期模式。从上一次扩张到下一次扩张或从上一次收缩到下一次收缩的平均时间约为45年左右。迄今为止，美国外交经历了四个半周期。美国经济的周期性波动、国际局势的变动、国内思潮的转换等因素是推动美国外交扩张与收缩的主要动力。当前美国外交开始步入第五个周期的收缩期，这将对世界和中国产生重大影响。     

银根紧缩、银根放松与放而不松——大萧条前后中美货币政策效果比较研究

对比20世纪20—30年代中国和美国的货币政策功能，在经济发达的美国，货币政策只能刹车不能启动，符合货币理论的逻辑，而在经济落后的近代中国，货币供给既能刹车又能启动，现代货币理论对此无法解释。货币政策无法启动经济的前提是需求约束型经济（美国），而在供给约束型经济（中国）中，货币政策是可以启动经济的。在两种经济状态下，紧缩银根都可以使经济增长减速或刹车。     

Agriculture,trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case

The persistent appreciation of the U.S. dollar from 1980 through 1984 raise the issue of macroeconomic impacts on trade sectors as a critical policy concern. In this article a six-variable vector autoregressive model is utilized to evaluate the dynamic effects of macroeconomic shocks on U.S. agriculture, a key trade sector. The results suggest that the impacts are substantial. Expansion of the money supply or a decline in the real interest rate or the real value of the dollar has a positive effect on agricultural exports and relative prices, whereas autonomous inflationary shocks have negative effects.     

South African quotas on textile imports from China: A policy error?

In August 2006 the South African government announced quotas on the imports of clothing and textile products from China. Three questions arise. What are these expected benefits? What will be the most likely impact of the import quotas on the South African economy? And what are the policy implications? In this paper we answer these questions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find that, contrary to the motivations apparently underlying the quota implementation, the macro-economic, sector and household effects are negative and result in greater inequality between poorer and richer households. We refer to modeling results elsewhere in the literature which report results consistent to ours. The policy implications are that the imposition of these quotas could come to be seen as a policy mistake, and that South Africa may benefit more from considering a free trade agreement with China.     

Cross-border school enrolment: Associated factors in the U.S.–Mexico borderlands

This paper examines students who live in Mexico but attend school in the U.S., and looks into the factors associated with their decision to study abroad. Based on Mexico’s 2015 Intercensal Survey, cross-border students are described in terms of their number, location, educational level and socioeconomic characteristics. Subsequently, the study estimates probit models to analyze the factors associated with studying in the United States. Cross-border students are mainly U.S.-born and concentrated in Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. The probability of being a cross-border student is positively associated with age, household income and having a household member who was born in the U.S. or is a cross-border worker. Cross-border students come from high-income households with strong ties to the United States. The decision to study in the U.S. is likely taken due to the higher quality of the country’s education system and to facilitate an eventual transition into the U.S. labor market.     

Trade policy and the United States labour market

The United States Government proposed a sweeping review of existing trade deals when the current Administration took office in January 2017. This paper reviews the ongoing changes, and considers the potential impact of two strands of the trade policy debate on the United States labour market. First, we consider policy decisions that may impact the location decision of multinational enterprises, especially within the context of the renegotiation of NAFTA. Second, we review the policy debate related to the steel industry, and the potential channels through which an import tariff on steel imports may impact the labour market.     

后“9·11”时代美国边界安全空间的外扩性趋势分析——以集装箱安全计划(CSI)为例

"9·11"后,美国边界安全政策发生了深刻变化,体现出了很多新的特点与发展趋势,边界安全空间的外扩性就是其中之一。本文拟以集装箱安全计划(CSI)为例对此进行分析,指出"9·11"后美国政府通过国际间政府合作等方式实现了美国边界安全空间的外扩,使美国的边界成为保卫边界安全的最后一道而不是第一道防线,扩大了美国边界安全保卫的战略纵深。这是"9·11"后美国政府边界安全政策的一个新特点,也是全球化时代主权国家边界安全保卫中值得探索的一种积极方式。     

Costs and distortion of U.S. regulation policy in intercoastal lumber shipping

This article quantitatively analyzes the various impacts of current U.S. coastal restrictions on the Northwest lumber industry. The history of U.S. maritime regulation is briefly reviewed and a simulation model is developed to measure its affect on lumber shipments and transport costs. The results of the model indicate that aggregate cost redutions obtained through deregulation are likely to be small. The pattern of intercoastal shipments could change a great deal, however, with U.S. producers picking up a large share of the Northeast market.