Trade liberalisation and urban–rural linkages: a CGE analysis for Ethiopia

Using a rural–urban computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper examines the impacts of trade liberalisation on structural transformation and overall growth of the Ethiopian economy. The simulation experiments suggest that the impacts of trade liberalisation depend on wage-setting conditions in the urban region. With a fixed urban real wage, trade reform adversely affects overall economic growth mainly because of large contractions in the urban region. If urban nominal wage is flexible, both rural and urban regions experience expansion in GDP. An important policy implication of this analysis is that the success of trade liberalisation critically depends on the extent to which product and labour market reforms are synchronised. On the other hand, simultaneous implementations of nominal devaluation and reductions in external trade tariffs would not enhance structural transformation of the economy. However, this policy conflict does not necessarily arise if the introduction and implementation of different policy instruments of trade reforms are appropriately sequenced.     

Cultural policy and investment in China: Do they realize the government’s cultural objectives?

Cultural policy in China has both economic and cultural objectives. In this paper we consider how these two objectives are linked through increases in cultural output. We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy to analyse the impact of cultural investment on the output of cultural goods and services between 2009 and 2015, and we carry forward the simulations to 2030. Our results show that this cultural policy instrument has had a positive impact on the output of cultural goods and services in a manner that also underpins the purely cultural objectives of government.     

Measuring State TANF Policy Variations and Change After Reform*

Objectives. Our objectives are to describe the policies adopted after PRWORA, which vary across states, to test for common underlying policy concepts, demonstrating how these policies are interrelated, and to examine whether policy stringency diffused to neighboring states results in greater policy stringency across all states over time. We convert textual TANF welfare guidelines into empirically derived policy dimensions and use the derived quantitative scores to describe variation and change in welfare policy dimensions across status during the 1996–2003 post‐welfare‐reform period. Methods. Utilizing the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, we apply a factor analytic methodology to 78 unique state policy guidelines that were coded on a lenient‐to‐stringent continuum. Regression analyses, employing spatial contiguity weighting, are used to describe policy diffusion. Results. The results identified 15 underlying first‐order post‐welfare‐reform policy dimensions, which for scientific parsimony were further reduced to three second‐order underlying dimensions representing rules governing eligibility: eligibility requirements for groups, behavioral responsibilities for maintaining eligibility, and eligibility time limits and exemptions. Analysis of the quantitative scores showed that by 2003 states had become more lenient regarding eligibility criteria for groups but decidedly more stringent regarding behavioral guidelines for maintaining eligibility and eligibility time limits and exemptions. Spatial clustering is not found globally but is significant for some states at the local level. Spatial diffusion is apparent only for behavioral rules. Conclusions. Our results suggest that TANF policy variations across states go beyond payment levels to include salient eligibility rules. The patterns of variability in change scores across states do not support a pervasive “race to the bottom” conclusion.     

Public Perception of Environmental Issues in a Developing Setting: Environmental Concern in Coastal Ghana

OBJECTIVE: Balancing environmental quality with economic growth in less developed settings is clearly a challenge. Still surprisingly little empirical evidence has been brought to bear on the relative priority given environmental and socioeconomic issues among the residents themselves of such settings. This research explores such perceptions. METHODS: We undertake survey research with 2500 residents of coastal Ghana on policy issues, focusing on environmental topics. RESULTS: Our analyses reveal a significant amount of environmental awareness, with education and political engagement consistently predicting higher levels of concern. In addition, environmental issues are deemed important even when considered relative to other socioeconomic issues. CONCLUSION: In the end, we argue that our work sheds light on global environmentalism and the ways in which local populations in less developed settings prioritize social and environmental concerns. This work also has important policy implications since insight on local perceptions may help buttress policy responses designed to cope with global change.     

Achievements,experiences and challenges: The 30-year development of social policy in China

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a brief summary of China’s social policy in the last three decades by dividing it into two significant stages. It analyses the different policy orientations and concrete measurements in the two stages. According to the author, the changes and development of China’s social policy in the last three decades were, to a large extent, responses to the economic transition and the current socio-economic conditions. In the first stage, China’s social policy had to keep a low social welfare level to support the labour-intensive and foreign-trade oriented economic model in the 1990s. In the second stage, it had turned more to solve serious social problems and responded to the new economic and social challenges. After the fast development of almost two decades, China’s social policy is still facing big challenges. Several important issues for further social policy development are discussed in this paper.     

论转型时期的政策利润

我国在由计划经济向市场经济转型过程中 ,改革的每一步都是靠政策推动的 ,政策利润是在不同时期对不同对象开放的 ,由此形成我国主体不同的政策利润和不同时期的富裕群体。政策利润的生成及由此形成的富裕群体是我国转型时期的必然产物。随着我国市场经济体制的建立和买方市场的形成 ,各种类型经济主体赚取不同政策利润所造成的事实上的不公平竞争和市场法则复杂化的问题日益突出 ,因此 ,我们必须清理各种政策利润 ,实现各经济主体的无差别化 ,使之在公平的环境下平等竞争     

Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact

This paper proposes a modelling approach to assess the cross-region and cross-sector economic impacts of the restrictions imposed by governments to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The nationwide lockdown imposed in Italy during the first wave of the pandemic is used as a benchmark. However, the adopted approach allows an ex-ante assessment of alternative policy responses, in the event of successive pandemic waves, in order to rationalise the policy intervention and reach the best possible compromise between containing the risk of contagion and reducing economic losses. The used approach consists of a non-linear programming model based on a multiregional Input-Output (I-O) table, which guarantees greater flexibility than traditional I-O analysis. It is applied to estimate both direct and indirect losses of GDP and employment produced by alternative policy responses represented by general and differentiated lockdowns. The evidence deriving from the Italian experience shows a sort of learning process through successive waves based on the introduction of increasingly flexible and tailored policy responses to the pandemic.     

Policy instrument affordances: a framework for analysis

The present study uses the concept of technological efficacy derived from ecological psychology and design studies to offer an alternative way of analyzing how policy instruments affect change. Reasoning from this, the paper outlines a framework for analyzing policy instruments in terms of their affordances. We define affordances as the means through which an instrument exerts influence on its intended target audience. Using this approach, we contend that policy instruments may be analyzed as interfaces that organize social relations and create structures of opportunity and/or restrict possibilities for action. We argue that explicating the pathways through which instruments afford or constrain action is a central task for policy analysis. Our proposed framework of analysis builds on the idea that instruments yield effects by facilitating action and learning. We further contend that the actions that an instrument can facilitate or inhibit are determined by specific affordance modalities of the instrument in conjunction with contingencies of the actor and the policy environment. Examples from research policy are used to illustrate some of these effects.     

Economic,social and environmental effects of reducing dairy methane emissions through market-based policies: An application of the Livestock Policy Simulation Model

Several technological approaches to mitigate methane dairy emissions are available; however, assuming that technological change alone generates the necessary incentives to accelerate emissions reduction is risky. Without adequate market signals, producers might choose not to use the technologies available or to the desired extent. Addressing this economic problem requires altering producers’ and consumers’ behaviour by introducing incentives or constraints. Employing the livestock policy simulation model, we examine the effects of reducing methane emissions in the dairy sector under different market-based policy instruments. We used the primary dairy sector in Uruguay as a case study. The results show that a policy mix combining a set of market-based instruments can be more effective than a single policy instrument alone.     

Tunisia after the 2011’s revolution: Economic deterioration should,and could have been avoided

The political instability and social unrest in Tunisia since 2011, generated a short-term foresight of the macroeconomic management which contributed to the deterioration of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals. The objective of this paper is to provide the policy makers with quantitative arguments showing the importance to undertake the macroeconomic stabilization and the structural reforms that improve the total factor productivity, one of the main engines of a sustained economic growth. To that end, the paper employs a financial dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using six flow-of-funds accounts representing the Tunisian economy in 2010. In a first stage, I reproduce the main macroeconomic variables observed for the Tunisian economy over 2011–2018. In a second stage, the model is used to compare the impacts of counterfactual policy scenarios on the Tunisian macroeconomic performance. The results show that the economy could perform much better, in relation to a battery of macroeconomic indicators (economic growth, unemployment, public external and domestic debts, current account, fiscal balance) under alternative economic policies. The most insightful results are obtained under the scenario of a total factor productivity’s growth progressing at its average level of 2001–2010. Indeed, this could generate an average yearly gain in terms of GDP growth of 3.45 percentage points and a reduction of the average unemployment rate by 7 percentage points over the same time horizon.     

The role of the welfare state in supporting economic transitions following family bereavement: Comparing Britain and Israel

Despite its centrality to the experience of death and grief, it is only in recent years that the economic burden following family bereavement has been recognized by social care professionals and scholars. Based on the realization that death and bereavement are grounded in social context, and assuming this economic burden is a multifaceted phenomenon, the present study compares the British and Israeli welfare systems in three policy settings: social security, funeral services, and bereavement leave. The findings suggest that while in both systems bereavement and especially widowhood is considered a deserving category, recent pressures for restructuring the British welfare state have been successful in shifting provision from the state to the market. The findings also show that in both cases, albeit to a lesser extent in Israel, current policy measures are not fully aligned with critical scholarship on bereavement and its financial consequences, nor with socio‐economic and demographic trends. These disparities are addressed using the notion of disenfranchised grief and by emphasizing the pivotal, although often overlooked role of the welfare state in constituting it. Lastly, the differences between the two cases are discussed in terms of the powerful role of Judaism in shaping Israeli policy.     

依托资源和特色优势:加快黑龙江省农村专业合作经济组织发展

黑龙江省农村专业合作经济组织虽然得到了一定的发展 ,但总体上仍是规模小 ,水平低 ,难以满足农业产业化发展的需要。应根据我国加入WTO后农产品市场及国际市场竞争规则的变化 ,借鉴国际农业合作社的发展经验 ,依托黑龙江省资源优势和特色优势 ,充分利用现代经营方式 ,在总结供销社改革和专业合作社发展经验的基础上 ,加强政策支持和引导 ,加快黑龙江省农村专业合作经济组织发展。     

How do placements in kinship care compare with those in non‐kin foster care: placement patterns,progress and outcomes?

As the use of kinship care is set to rise in England, it is important that policy and practice developments are based on firm evidence about kin placement outcomes and how these compare with those in stranger foster care. The research reported in this paper was based on case file reviews of 270 children, half in kin placements and half in stranger foster care, and on interviews with a sub-sample of 32 kin carers, social workers, children and parents. Kin carers were found to be significantly more disadvantaged than stranger foster carers: more kin carers were lone carers, with health problems, living in overcrowded conditions and had financial difficulties. The children, in contrast, were remarkably similar in the two kinds of placement. The main differences between the children in the two settings are examined in the paper. The children's progress and outcomes in terms of placement quality and disruption were very similar in the two settings, but kin placements lasted longer, mainly because fewer were planned as interim placements. However, because kin carers persisted with very challenging children and yet received fewer services than stranger foster carers, they were more often under strain. The implications for policy and practice are examined.     

Emerging markets: Prospects and challenges

This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term. It argues that EM policymakers’ ability to grapple with an incomplete and uneven recovery will be constrained by high public debt and uncertain inflation prospects as well as external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments. The paper also discusses potential impact of a tightening in global financial conditions and appreciation of the US dollar that could be triggered by a general increase in risk aversion or a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy.     

住房权实现中国家平等对待义务的客观性——兼论经济适用房和廉租房政策的合理性

作为一项社会经济权利,住房权的国家义务较具弹性,但这并不意味着政府的住房保障政策不必遵守任何法律上的规范标准.在住房权实现过程中,国家具有平等对待每一个公民的义务,只有在充分考虑未从住房优惠政策中获益的群体的利益的基础上,以尊重利益受到不利影响的公民的平等权为前提,将比例原则作为客观的检验标准,国家的住房保障政策才具有合法性的根基.而在时下热议的经济适用房和廉租房政策中,更能看出住房权国家义务的客观标准所具有的实际功能.只有符合客观检验标准的住房保障政策才能与基本权利体系相协调,与和谐法治社会的发展相一致.     

Free provision of services and cross-border labour recruitment

This article identifies how the use of the European Union (EU) mobility rules, as formulated by the EU's Posting Directive, has been linked to the temporary provision of services in practice. It demonstrates how this linkage, legitimised by European Court rulings, undermines the Directive's original intent to provide rights-based regulation of labour mobility in the Union. In the assessment of posting practices, striking findings of two studies co-conducted by the author in 2003 and 2010 are discussed. In the first section, the origins of the Directive are described, followed by sections that contextualise the posting rules in the framework of the fundamental economic freedoms of EU Treaties, and discuss the problems related to implementation and enforcement. Based on the Directive's definition of posting, three issues of governance and practice are raised: (a) regulation of the employment relationship, (b) application of labour conditions and (c) respect for collective agreements. A final section offers policy recommendations in order to deal with the ways in which posting governance and practices currently impede any vision of rights-based mobility in the EU. It is argued that current minimalist interpretation of the posting rules can neither guarantee equal treatment nor protect the rights of temporary migrant workers.     

Fiscal and monetary policy rules revisited

Why have automatic procedures designed to limit or eliminate the discretion of policy-makers become popular in recent years? The first part of the paper addresses fiscal policy rules by analyzing their political appeal as restrainers, symbols, partisan weapons, and ideological statements. The second part of the paper considers monetary policy rules and their rationales, and critiques them. We argue that fiscal and monetary policy rules may not be as efficacious as their supporters claim, and they raise new problems stemming from their biases, rigidity, and antidemocratic implications.     

The Rules of the Game: The Politics of National Pensions in Korea

This article explores the conditions in which policy changes occur over time. It studies the institutional pathways taken by national pensions in Korea over an extended period by identifying the key moments which have pushed through their development: initiation (1973), implementation (1988) and reform (1998). Public pensions have developed over time in an incremental fashion, bringing an ever‐growing proportion of the population under their umbrella. What accounts for this development? A number of factors may be at work. The elderly population has rapidly increased; the traditional extended family has increasingly become a nuclear one, meaning that what used simply to be a family issue of protecting the elderly has become a social matter; urbanization and industrialization have resulted in an ever‐growing number of life‐time contingencies such as unexpected income losses. Convincing as these socio‐economic accounts may seem, however, they offer only a snapshot, underscoring the politics of national pensions which stretch over long periods. This article seeks to answer how and in whose interest national pensions come on to the political agenda; how they are framed and defined; and how political actors respond to pressures for national pension reform. In each of the three stages, it is suggested, somewhat different institutional rules have operated. Defining institutional rules as ‘the process of who gets represented in the decision‐making processes’, this article identifies the different institutional rules which have played a pivotal role in the social policy‐making processes.     

Linkage leverage democratization and liberalization: is promoting democracy the same as promoting human rights?

Research on transnational human rights promotion and democratization often assumes that human rights promotion and democratization promotion are the same. But evidences from recent studies give reasons to question this assumption. This article compares the EU’s influence on democratization and human rights reforms in 29 countries in East-Europe West-Asia, the Middle East, and North-Africa. The results indicate that the impact of the EU on human rights protection is more notable than its impact on democracy levels. The article explains these results based on the lower level of threat to regime survival as a result of human rights reform, compared to democratization; the transmission of a clear message regarding the importance of the issue of human rights to the EU and to the member states; and the strong economic leverage the EU possess. The article draws policy implications including matching each policy goal with the most effective instruments to achieve it. The most effective human rights promotion instrument is economic pressure whereas democratization is more influenced by emulation processes than by economic pressure.