The skew generalized t distribution as the scale mixture of a skew exponential power distribution and its applications in robust estimation

In this paper, we consider the family of skew generalized t (SGT) distributions originally introduced by Theodossiou [P. Theodossiou, Financial data and the skewed generalized t distribution, Manage. Sci. Part 1 44 (12) ( 1998), pp. 1650–1661] as a skew extension of the generalized t (GT) distribution. The SGT distribution family warrants special attention, because it encompasses distributions having both heavy tails and skewness, and many of the widely used distributions such as Student's t, normal, Hansen's skew t, exponential power, and skew exponential power (SEP) distributions are included as limiting or special cases in the SGT family. We show that the SGT distribution can be obtained as the scale mixture of the SEP and generalized gamma distributions. We investigate several properties of the SGT distribution and consider the maximum likelihood estimation of the location, scale, and skewness parameters under the assumption that the shape parameters are known. We show that if the shape parameters are estimated along with the location, scale, and skewness parameters, the influence function for the maximum likelihood estimators becomes unbounded. We obtain the necessary conditions to ensure the uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators for the location, scale, and skewness parameters, with known shape parameters. We provide a simple iterative re-weighting algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimates for the location, scale, and skewness parameters and show that this simple algorithm can be identified as an EM-type algorithm. We finally present two applications of the SGT distributions in robust estimation.     

Natural (Non‐)Informative Priors for Skew‐symmetric Distributions

In this paper, we present an innovative method for constructing proper priors for the skewness (shape) parameter in the skew‐symmetric family of distributions. The proposed method is based on assigning a prior distribution on the perturbation effect of the shape parameter, which is quantified in terms of the total variation distance. We discuss strategies to translate prior beliefs about the asymmetry of the data into an informative prior distribution of this class. We show via a Monte Carlo simulation study that our non‐informative priors induce posterior distributions with good frequentist properties, similar to those of the Jeffreys prior. Our informative priors yield better results than their competitors from the literature. We also propose a scale‐invariant and location‐invariant prior structure for models with unknown location and scale parameters and provide sufficient conditions for the propriety of the corresponding posterior distribution. Illustrative examples are presented using simulated and real data.     

Models for Extremal Dependence Derived from Skew‐symmetric Families

Skew‐symmetric families of distributions such as the skew‐normal and skew‐t represent supersets of the normal and t distributions, and they exhibit richer classes of extremal behaviour. By defining a non‐stationary skew‐normal process, which allows the easy handling of positive definite, non‐stationary covariance functions, we derive a new family of max‐stable processes – the extremal skew‐t process. This process is a superset of non‐stationary processes that include the stationary extremal‐t processes. We provide the spectral representation and the resulting angular densities of the extremal skew‐t process and illustrate its practical implementation.     

Non‐Gaussian geostatistical modeling using (skew) t processes

We propose a new model for regression and dependence analysis when addressing spatial data with possibly heavy tails and an asymmetric marginal distribution. We first propose a stationary process with t marginals obtained through scale mixing of a Gaussian process with an inverse square root process with Gamma marginals. We then generalize this construction by considering a skew‐Gaussian process, thus obtaining a process with skew‐t marginal distributions. For the proposed (skew) t process, we study the second‐order and geometrical properties and in the t case, we provide analytic expressions for the bivariate distribution. In an extensive simulation study, we investigate the use of the weighted pairwise likelihood as a method of estimation for the t process. Moreover we compare the performance of the optimal linear predictor of the t process versus the optimal Gaussian predictor. Finally, the effectiveness of our methodology is illustrated by analyzing a georeferenced dataset on maximum temperatures in Australia.     

Bias prevention of maximum likelihood estimates for scalar skew normal and skew t distributions

The skew normal model is a class of distributions that extends the Gaussian family by including a shape parameter. Despite its nice properties, this model presents some problems with the estimation of the shape parameter. In particular, for moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator is infinite with positive probability. As a solution, we use a modified score function as an estimating equation for the shape parameter. It is proved that the resulting modified maximum likelihood estimator is always finite. For confidence intervals a quasi-likelihood approach is considered. When regression and scale parameters are present, the method is combined with maximum likelihood estimators for these parameters. Finally, also the skew t distribution is considered, which may be viewed as an extension of the skew normal. The same method is applied to this model, considering the degrees of freedom as known.     

Estimation of P(Y < X) for Weibull Distribution Under Progressive Type-II Censoring

Based on progressively Type II censored samples, we consider the estimation of R = P(Y < X) when X and Y are two independent Weibull distributions with different shape parameters, but having the same scale parameter. The maximum likelihood estimator, approximate maximum likelihood estimator, and Bayes estimator of R are obtained. Based on the asymptotic distribution of R, the confidence interval of R are obtained. Two bootstrap confidence intervals are also proposed. Analysis of a real data set is given for illustrative purposes. Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to compare the different proposed methods.     

Shannon Entropy and Mutual Information for Multivariate Skew‐Elliptical Distributions

Abstract. The entropy and mutual information index are important concepts developed by Shannon in the context of information theory. They have been widely studied in the case of the multivariate normal distribution. We first extend these tools to the full symmetric class of multivariate elliptical distributions and then to the more flexible families of multivariate skew‐elliptical distributions. We study in detail the cases of the multivariate skew‐normal and skew‐t distributions. We implement our findings to the application of the optimal design of an ozone monitoring station network in Santiago de Chile.     

On bias reduction estimators of skew-normal and skew-t distributions

A particular concerns of researchers in statistical inference is bias in parameters estimation. Maximum likelihood estimators are often biased and for small sample size, the first order bias of them can be large and so it may influence the efficiency of the estimator. There are different methods for reduction of this bias. In this paper, we proposed a modified maximum likelihood estimator for the shape parameter of two popular skew distributions, namely skew-normal and skew-t, by offering a new method. We show that this estimator has lower asymptotic bias than the maximum likelihood estimator and is more efficient than those based on the existing methods.     

Inference of R = P[X < Y] for skew normal distribution

This article studies the estimation of R = P[X < Y] when X and Y are two independent skew normal distribution with different parameters. When the scale parameter is unknown, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is proposed. The maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation, and confidence interval of R are obtained when the common scale parameter is known. In the general case, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is also discussed. To compare the different proposed methods, Monte Carlo simulations are performed. At last, the analysis of a real dataset has been presented for illustrative purposes too.     

Box–Cox realized asymmetric stochastic volatility models with generalized Student's t-error distributions

This study proposes a class of non-linear realized stochastic volatility (SV) model by applying the Box–Cox (BC) transformation, instead of the logarithmic transformation, to the realized estimator. The non-Gaussian distributions such as Student's t, non-central Student's t, and generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t-distributions are applied to accommodate heavy-tailedness and skewness in returns. The proposed models are fitted to daily returns and realized kernel of six stocks: SP500, FTSE100, Nikkei225, Nasdaq100, DAX, and DJIA using an Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian method, in which the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm updates BC parameter and the Riemann manifold HMC algorithm updates latent variables and other parameters that are unable to be sampled directly. Empirical studies provide evidence against both the logarithmic transformation and raw versions of realized SV model.     

Is a Brownian Motion Skew?

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimator corresponding to the observation of a trajectory of a skew Brownian motion, through a uniform time discretization. We characterize the speed of convergence and the limiting distribution when the step size goes to zero, which in this case are non‐classical, under the null hypothesis of the skew Brownian motion being an usual Brownian motion. This allows to design a test on the skewness parameter. We show that numerical simulations can be easily performed to estimate the skewness parameter and provide an application in Biology.     

A note on bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates for the scalar skew t distribution

The skew t distribution is a flexible parametric family to fit data, because it includes parameters that let us regulate skewness and kurtosis. A problem with this distribution is that, for moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the shape parameter is infinite with positive probability. In order to try to solve this problem, Sartori (2006) has proposed using a modified score function as an estimating equation for the shape parameter. In this note we prove that the resulting modified maximum likelihood estimator is always finite, considering the degrees of freedom as known and greater than or equal to 2.     

Modified maximum likelihood estimator under the Jones and Faddy's skew t-error distribution for censored regression model

It is well-known that classical Tobit estimator of the parameters of the censored regression (CR) model is inefficient in case of non-normal error terms. In this paper, we propose to use the modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator under the Jones and Faddy''s skew t-error distribution, which covers a wide range of skew and symmetric distributions, for the CR model. The MML estimators, providing an alternative to the Tobit estimator, are explicitly expressed and they are asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator. A simulation study is conducted to compare the efficiencies of the MML estimators with the classical estimators such as the ordinary least squares, Tobit, censored least absolute deviations and symmetrically trimmed least squares estimators. The results of the simulation study show that the MML estimators work well among the others with respect to the root mean square error criterion for the CR model. A real life example is also provided to show the suitability of the MML methodology.     

ASYMPTOTIC LIKELIHOOD APPROXIMATIONS USING A PARTIAL LAPLACE APPROXIMATION

Elimination of a nuisance variable is often non‐trivial and may involve the evaluation of an intractable integral. One approach to evaluate these integrals is to use the Laplace approximation. This paper concentrates on a new approximation, called the partial Laplace approximation, that is useful when the integrand can be partitioned into two multiplicative disjoint functions. The technique is applied to the linear mixed model and shows that the approximate likelihood obtained can be partitioned to provide a conditional likelihood for the location parameters and a marginal likelihood for the scale parameters equivalent to restricted maximum likelihood (REML). Similarly, the partial Laplace approximation is applied to the t‐distribution to obtain an approximate REML for the scale parameter. A simulation study reveals that, in comparison to maximum likelihood, the scale parameter estimates of the t‐distribution obtained from the approximate REML show reduced bias.     

Bayesian comparative study on binary time series

In this paper, we consider the Bayesian analysis of binary time series with different priors, namely normal, Students' t, and Jeffreys prior, and compare the results with the frequentist methods through some simulation experiments and one real data on daily rainfall in inches at Mount Washington, NH. Among Bayesian methods, our results show that the Jeffreys prior perform better in most of the situations for both the simulation and the rainfall data. Furthermore, among weakly informative priors considered, Student's t prior with 7 degrees of freedom fits the data most adequately.     

Stress-Strength Reliability of a Two-Parameter Bathtub-shaped Lifetime Distribution Based on Progressively Censored Samples

Based on progressively Type-II censored samples, this article deals with inference for the stress-strength reliability R = P(Y < X) when X and Y are two independent two-parameter bathtub-shape lifetime distributions with different scale parameters, but having the same shape parameter. Different methods for estimating the reliability are applied. The maximum likelihood estimate of R is derived. Also, its asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval for R. Assuming that the shape parameter is known, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is obtained. Based on the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of R an exact confidence interval of that has been obtained. The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator are calculated for R. Bayes estimate of R and the associated credible interval are also got under the assumption of independent gamma priors. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed estimators. One data analysis has been performed for illustrative purpose. Finally, we will generalize this distribution to the proportional hazard family with two parameters and derive various estimators in this family.     

THE GENERALIZED SECANT HYPERBOLIC DISTRIBUTION AND ITS PROPERTIES

ABSTRACT

The properties of a family of distributions generalizing the secant hyperbolic are developed. This family consists of symmetric distributions, with kurtosis ranging from 1.8 to infinity, and includes the logistic as a special case, the uniform as a limiting case, and closely approximates the normal and Student's t-distributions with corresponding kurtosis. A significant difference between this family and Student's t is that for any member of the generalized secant hyperbolic family, all moments are finite. Further, technical difficulties associated with evaluating moments of Student's t (especially for fractional degrees of freedom) are not present with this family. The properties of the maximum likelihood and modified maximum likelihood estimates of the location and scale parameters for complete samples are considered. Examples illustrate the methods developed in this work.     

A note on comparison and improvement of estimators based on likelihood

The problem of estimation of a parameter of interest in the presence of a nuisance parameter, which is either location or scale, is considered. Three estimators are taken into account: usual maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, maximum integrated likelihood estimator and the bias-corrected ML estimator. General results on comparison of these estimators w.r.t. the second-order risk based on the mean-squared error are obtained. Possible improvements of basic estimators via the notion of admissibility and methodology given in Ghosh and Sinha [A necessary and sufficient condition for second order admissibility with applications to Berkson's bioassay problem. Ann Stat. 1981;9(6):1334–1338] are considered. In the recent paper by Tanaka et al. [On improved estimation of a gamma shape parameter. Statistics. 2014; doi:10.1080/02331888.2014.915842], this problem was considered for estimating the shape parameter of gamma distribution. Here, we perform more accurate comparison of estimators for this case as well as for some other cases.     

The use of Jeffreys priors for the Student-t distribution

The Jeffreys-rule prior and the marginal independence Jeffreys prior are recently proposed in Fonseca et al. [Objective Bayesian analysis for the Student-t regression model, Biometrika 95 (2008), pp. 325–333] as objective priors for the Student-t regression model. The authors showed that the priors provide proper posterior distributions and perform favourably in parameter estimation. Motivated by a practical financial risk management application, we compare the performance of the two Jeffreys priors with other priors proposed in the literature in a problem of estimating high quantiles for the Student-t model with unknown degrees of freedom. Through an asymptotic analysis and a simulation study, we show that both Jeffreys priors perform better in using a specific quantile of the Bayesian predictive distribution to approximate the true quantile.     

Linear approximate ML estimation in scaled Type I generalized logistic distribution based on Type-II censored samples

The scaled (two-parameter) Type I generalized logistic distribution (GLD) is considered with the known shape parameter. The ML method does not yield an explicit estimator for the scale parameter even in complete samples. In this article, we therefore construct a new linear estimator for scale parameter, based on complete and doubly Type-II censored samples, by making linear approximations to the intractable terms of the likelihood equation using least-squares (LS) method, a new approach of linearization. We call this as linear approximate maximum likelihood estimator (LAMLE). We also construct LAMLE based on Taylor series method of linear approximation and found that this estimator is slightly biased than that based on the LS method. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to investigate the performance of LAMLE and found that it is almost as efficient as MLE, though biased than MLE. We also compare unbiased LAMLE with BLUE based on the exact variances of the estimators and interestingly this new unbiased LAMLE is found just as efficient as the BLUE in both complete and Type-II censored samples. Since MLE is known as asymptotically unbiased, in large samples we compare unbiased LAMLE with MLE and found that this estimator is almost as efficient as MLE. We have also discussed interval estimation of the scale parameter from complete and Type-II censored samples. Finally, we present some numerical examples to illustrate the construction of the new estimators developed here.