System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study

The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause‐and‐effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.     

Optimal Enhancement and Lifetime of Software Systems: A Control Theoretic Analysis

We develop an optimal control model to maximize the net value provided by a software system over its useful life. The model determines the initial number of features in the system, the level of dynamic enhancement effort, and the lifetime of the system. The various factors affecting these optimal choices are systems characteristics (e.g., complexity, age, quality), user learning, and process maturity. We also consider that there is a time lag between the addition of a feature and the realization of its benefit to users. The basic model is extended to consider the decision of replacing the existing system by a new one.     

Process Safety Behavioral Systems: Behaviors Interlock in Complex Metacontingencies

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to identify behavioral components active in process safety. Three types of behavior classes are identified as contributors to process safety: task-specific behaviors, safety-directed behaviors, and behaviors associated with situational awareness. Behavioral systems analysis is used to provide a framework for identifying the cross-functional interlocking behavioral contingencies that can, even over a period of years, contribute to process safety incidents. Leadership behaviors are also identified that can create the context in the form of metacontingencies that maintain these interlocking contingencies.     

System Dynamics Understanding in Projects: Information Sharing,Psychological Safety,and Performance Effects

Systems thinking has proven useful in project management planning activities and has been suggested as a critical driver of a range of beneficial organizational behaviors. Yet, empirical evidence on the myriad of ways in which systems thinking can impact internal project dynamics and performance remains limited. This study focuses on one aspect of systems thinking in particular: the ability to recognize and understand the dynamics of systems and their features (e.g., feedback and delay). It makes use of a unique, large‐scale interview data set along with objective and structured survey data drawn from multiple sources associated with supply chain system implementation projects. Analysis suggests that an individual's understanding of system dynamics as well as the similarity of such understanding to that typical of their team is, in fact, a strong predictor of both perceptions of psychological safety and information sharing quality in project work. These outcomes appear to mediate the relationship between system dynamics understanding and performance.     

产品责任预防方法与体系研究

产品责任是我国企业在加入WTO后面临的一个重要课题。由于我国在产品责任方面的立法水平较低,企业管理层尚未对产品责任问题有充分的认识。本文就造成产品责任的三种缺陷提出了产品责任预防的策略与方法。提出了将产品责任预防体系与ISO9000质量管理体系融合,达到预防产品责任,提高产品质量和企业竞争力的目的。     

Interpreting MSHA Citations Through the Lens of Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems: Investigating Their Impact on Mine Injuries and Illnesses 2003–2010

Since the late 1980s, the U.S. Department of Labor has considered regulating a systems approach to occupational health and safety management. Recently, a health and safety management systems (HSMS) standard has returned to the regulatory agenda of both the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). Because a mandated standard has implications for both industry and regulating bodies alike, it is imperative to gain a greater understanding of the potential effects that an HSMS regulatory approach can have on establishment‐level injuries and illnesses. Through the lens of MSHA's regulatory framework, we first explore how current enforcement activities align with HSMS elements. Using MSHA data for the years 2003–2010, we then analyze the relationship between various types of enforcement activities (e.g., total number of citations, total penalty amount, and HSMS‐aligned citations) and mine reportable injuries. Our findings show that the reduction in mine reportable injuries predicted by increases in MSHA enforcement ranges from negligible to 18%. The results suggest that the type and focus of the enforcement activity may be more important for accident reduction than the total number of citations issued and the associated penalty amount.     

Task Analysis for Industrial Work Process from Aspects of Human Reliability and System Safety

In the design, development, and manufacturing stage of industrial products, engineers usually focus on the problems caused by hardware or software, but pay less attention to problems caused by human error, which may significantly affect system reliability and safety. Although operating procedures are strictly followed, human error still may occur occasionally. Among the influencing factors, the inappropriate design of standard operation procedure (SOP) or standard assembly procedure (SAP) is an important and latent reason for unexpected results found during human operation. To reduce the error probability and error effects of these unexpected behaviors in the industrial work process, overall evaluation of SOP or SAP quality has become an essential task. The human error criticality analysis (HECA) method was developed to identify the potentially critical problems caused by human error in the human operation system. This method performs task analysis on the basis of operation procedure. For example, SOP, analyzes the human error probability (HEP) for each human operation step, and assesses its error effects to the whole system. The results of the analysis will show the interrelationship that exists between critical human tasks, critical human error modes, and human reliability information of the human operation system. To identify the robustness of the model, a case study of initiator assembly tasks was conducted. Results show that the HECA method is practicable in evaluating the operation procedure, and the information is valuable in identifying the means to upgrade human reliability and system safety for human tasks.     

Bypassing Publicity for Getting Things Done: Between Informal and Formal Planning Practices in Finland

This article contributes to the discussion concerning the ways in which network governance and classical-modernist government practices juxtapose and redefine the idea of publicity in planning practices. Through Finnish urban planning cases we ask what kind of publicity is being promoted. We argue that new modes of governing build and employ institutional ambiguity for ‘getting things done’. This provides possibilities to ‘skim the cream’ of the best possible ways of resolving present planning issues. The crucial question is whether the possible positive outcomes give a mandate to the process, even if the process operates in a democratic void.     

Performance as a Basis for Price-setting in the Capital Goods Industry:: Concepts and Empirical Evidence

This paper discusses a new pricing strategy, which leads to a certain variability of prices as the supplier offers to fix prices to performance parameters of long-lasting industrial goods. The underlying idea is to give a signal of the supplier’s competence and/or to conclude a contract, which contains additional value for both parties to the market. Some theoretical findings are applied to this concept and lead to 13 hypotheses, especially dealing with the perceptions of the buyer. Empirical research covered 131 German mechanical engineering companies. The data were used to evaluate the use of performance-based pricing and test the hypotheses. The results show a mixed picture. Uncertainty-reducing effects are well perceived while other assumptions could not be confirmed. Based on the results recommendations are developed on how and when to apply performance-based pricing.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.     

企业管理情境下生态系统理论框架与未来研究方向

鉴于目前尚缺乏具有广泛影响力的“生态系统”理论基础,包括缺乏具有广泛影响力的概念定义及内在因果逻辑的机理解释,基于复杂系统理论和生命周期视角,研究认为,企业管理情境下的生态系统具备自组织、相互依赖、基础设施和竞合过程四大核心特征,而这些特征构成生态系统理论框架的四大维度,其间的“统一性”揭示了生态系统的复杂性和动态性本质。进一步地,高绩效、高韧性的生态系统得益于:①由于缺乏核心控制者,众多异质性成员之间充分频繁互动,不断产生多元系统价值主张;②系统成员间具备“半结构化”的相互依赖,使生态系统能更具弹性,更有效地面对多变、不确定、复杂和模糊的情境;③多样化的赋能设施产生于并最终赋能异质性生态系统成员;④成员间通过竞合机制共创和共取价值,促使生态系统持续演进。     

Methods for Whole System Change in Public Organizations and Communities: An Overview of the Issues

In a world that is made up of interconnected systems, public leaders are learning that they must build commitment, alignment, and ownership among a broad group of individuals and groups in order to implement change. An increasing variety of processes and methods are being utilized for engaging an organization or community in whole system change. Large group methodologies, originally developed by organization development practitioners and theorists, are now gaining currency in public organizations and communities. At the same time, community organizers who successfully utilized confrontation and conflict-oriented methods in the civil rights, labor and other movements, are employing broadly participative, collaborative approaches by creating small group settings where citizens can share their views and using large group meetings to engage multiple stakeholders in community change. This special symposium explores and reflects on the rich mix of methods in use for whole system change in public organizations and communities.     

Technological innovation and operational effectiveness: their role in achieving performance improvements

The purpose of this article is to examine the role of the alignment between technological innovation effectiveness and operational effectiveness after the implementation of enterprise information systems, and the impact of this alignment on the improvement in operational performance. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine structural relationships between the set of observed variables and the set of continuous latent variables. The findings from this research suggest that the dimensions stemming from technological innovation effectiveness such as system quality, information quality, service quality, user satisfaction and the performance objectives stemming from operational effectiveness such as cost, quality, reliability, flexibility and speed are important and significantly well-correlated factors. These factors promote the alignment between technological innovation effectiveness and operational effectiveness and should be the focus for managers in achieving effective implementation of technological innovations. In addition, there is a significant and direct influence of this alignment on the improvement of operational performance. The principal limitation of this study is that the findings are based on investigation of small sample size.     

Policy Learning for Flood Mitigation: A Longitudinal Assessment of the Community Rating System in Florida

Floods continue to inflict the most damage upon human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. Because localized flooding tends to be spatially repetitive over time, local decisionmakers often have an opportunity to learn from previous events and make proactive policy adjustments to reduce the adverse effects of a subsequent storm. Despite the importance of understanding the degree to which local jurisdictions learn from flood risks and under what circumstances, little if any empirical, longitudinal research has been conducted along these lines. This article addresses the research gap by examining the change in local flood mitigation policies in Florida from 1999 to 2005. We track 18 different mitigation activities organized into four series of activities under the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) for every local jurisdiction in Florida participating in the FEMA program on a yearly time step. We then identify the major factors contributing to policy changes based on CRS scores over the seven-year study period. Using multivariate statistical models to analyze both natural and social science data, we isolate the effects of several variables categorized into the following groups: hydrologic conditions, flood disaster history, socioeconomic and human capital controls. Results indicate that local jurisdictions do in fact learn from histories of flood risk and this process is expedited under specific conditions.     

基于过程的服务型企业电子商务就绪评价的实证研究

根据企业电子商务绩效动态评价模型,针对服务型企业电子商务流程特征,构建由战略规划、资源、能力和绩效四个维度构成的服务型企业电子商务就绪评价指标体系。该指标体系通过四个维度之间的因果递进作用关系,实现对价值产生的就绪因素、中间过程因素和关联作用关系的综合评价,突破前人孤立、静态的结构化视角,形成一种新的具有过程评估特点的就绪评价方法。采用实证研究方法,通过124家服务型企业的数据,从RBV理论﹑Nolan阶段性理论和资源投入波动性分析三个方面综合论证了该指标体系的合理性,以及其所具有的动态跟踪﹑阶段评估和诊断预测功能。     

Leadership and Crew Resource Management in High-Reliability Organizations: A Competency Framework for Measuring Behaviors

High-reliability organizations (HROs) have emerged across a number of highly technical, and increasingly automated industries (e.g., aviation, medicine, nuclear power, and oil field services). HROs incorporate complex systems with a large number of employees working in dynamic, and potentially dangerous environments. Effectively managing contingencies in HROs, to simultaneously promote safe and efficient behaviors is a daunting task. Crew Resource Management (CRM) has emerged in HROs as a highly effective approach to training and sustaining essential skills within work teams operating across a large workforce. CRM provides a competency framework that enables adherence to standard work instructions while, at the same time, encourages adaptive variance in responding to effectively manage current environmental circumstances that depart from normal routines. This paper considers the development of CRM across several high-reliability industries, develops a behavior analytic account of CRM behaviors, and describes an approach to measuring behaviors within simulated and actual work environments.     

Decentralizing Risk Analysis in Large Engineered Systems: An Approach to Articulating Technical and Socioorganizational Dimensions of System Performance1

Nuclear power production in France, as the domain of one national utility and one reactor builder, has a standardized profile of technical installations, safety procedures, and personnel qualifications. Despite this relative homogeneity, discrepancies are observed from one production unit to another, notably in the area of worker-safety performance. There is a strong implication for risk analysis: varying performance cannot be attributed solely to the technical dimensions of equipment, procedures, and human skills. The authors retain as a working hypothesis that safety performance is an outcome of interactions between technical and organizational factors. Traditional risk analysis appears to be underequipped to represent such interactions. The notion of decentralized risk analysis (DRA) is introduced as a means of achieving this goal. A program of applied research carried out in a NPP facility is presented. It aims at increasing, across plant work structure, knowledge and control of these interactions specific to the given context. Systematic measurements and feedback of social representations are performed, using a three-dimensional factor space of individual and organizational values. Direct involvement of the total plant population, transfer of analytic tools, methodological continuity, interactive elaboration of data, coordination of different levels of findings with operations, follow-up and feedback of measured change, are the main features of this DRA process. In the case cited, improvement observed in safety performance parallels changes in measured social representations. The value of DRA for articulating technical and organizational dimensions of risk, and for integrating information into decision-making, is argued.     

学习型组织中的虚拟团队知识共享模型研究

传统的知识共享理论不能直接应用到虚拟团队知识共享研究之中,为克服虚拟团队知识共享存在的障碍,对交互记忆系统运作的核心--元记忆目录进行了扩展,加入元知识和社会网络2个维度,以帮助虚拟团队解决统一知识表述、规范专长认知、知识资源描述和展现内部实际沟通网络等问题.以扩展性元记忆目录为核心,建立了基于交互记忆理论的虚拟团队知识共享模型,并对知识共享模型各因素的相互关系进行了分析,提出了未来研究的结构方程模型.     

基于碳配额交易和减排技术的供应链策略选择

本文以一个碳排放依赖型制造商和一个供应商组成的两级供应链为研究对象,考虑碳配额与交易机制和碳减排技术投入及消费者低碳偏好等因素下的供应链策略选择问题。若政府制定的碳配额不足以满足目标生产,制造商可以通过碳交易获得额外的碳排放权或采用碳减排技术、或两者结合,以实现收益最大化。本文采用报童模型,针对制造商的几种策略建立了供应链成员的收益模型。研究发现,对于制造商来说,碳减排技术和购买额外碳排放权相结合的策略一直是最优的;碳交易使制造商的碳排放总量上升,政府应该谨慎推行;通过制定适当的碳配额,政府可激励企业投资碳减排技术,从而降低碳排放总量并提高经济效益。     

产业集群技术知识创新系统演化阶段与路径分析

从创新系统视角研究产业集群问题。阐述产业集群技术知识创新系统内涵;通过分析产业集群技术知识创新系统的知识构成、创新参与者、创新行为构建产业集群技术知识创新系统结构模型;指出产业集群技术知识创新系统发展的阶段性特点;揭示产业集群技术知识创新系统演化规律及演化路径;对沈阳装备制造业集群的技术知识创新系统进行案例分析。