The ins and outs of unemployment and the assimilation of recent immigrants in Spain

We study the employment assimilation of the recent wave of immigration in Spain for the period 2002–2006. We differentiate the immigrants by their year of arrival in Spain. Following Shimer (Am Econ Rev 95(1):25–49, 2005) and using data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey, we calculate the job finding and the job exit rates. Throughout the period, immigrants show higher job finding and job exit rates. We also present a search and matching model with search intensity, where natives, new immigrants, and old immigrants compete in the labor market. The simulated model is able to reproduce the differences observed in their job finding and unemployment rates.     

金融危机背景下俄罗斯失业人口的迁移研究

论文主要针对近几年内俄罗斯失业者与求职者的迁移问题,还有各地区相关专家的观点进行了综合分析。研究表明,对俄罗斯失业人口而言,实现迁移的重要因素是工资的实质性提高和迁移目的地的住房问题。在危机背景下,俄罗斯各地区的劳动力市场并未做出实质性调整,导致国内失业与求职人口的迁移积极性不高。因此,在促进国家内部流动和缓解劳动力市场的压力方面,国家的经济干预功能还需进一步强化。     

Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work

Transitions from unemployment into temporary work are often succeeded by a transition from temporary into regular work. This paper investigates whether temporary work increases the transition rate to regular work. We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate a multi-state duration model, applying the ‘timing of events’ approach. The data contain multiple spells in labour market states at the individual level. We analyse results using novel graphical representations, which unambiguously show that temporary jobs shorten the unemployment duration, although they do not increase the fraction of unemployed workers having regular work within a few years after entry into unemployment.     

Measuring Precarious Employment: A Proposal for Two Indicators of Precarious Employment Based on Set-Theory and Tested with Dutch Labor Market-Data

Scholars claim that precarious employment is rising. The precariously employed earn low wages, have little job- and income security and occupy jobs that can generally be deemed low quality. These employees are at a disproportionally high risk of poverty and are at risk of detrimental psychological effects. Despite the salience of the issue, precarious employment remains an elusive concept and has proven difficult to measure directly. Instead, measurement tends to rely on non-integrated indicators and proxies, thus introducing significant issues concerning the validity of found results. This paper proposes two integrated indicators for specific aspects of precarious employment. Indicator 1 focuses on income insecurity and is constructed using wage, supplementary income and unemployment benefit entitlements. Indicator 2 focuses on job insecurity and is constructed using contract type and unemployment duration. Additionally, to check for the coexistence of job- and income insecurity at the individual level and give a more holistic picture of precarious employment, Indicators 1 and 2 are integrated. First, previous research on precarious employment and job insecurity is reviewed to bolster the indicators’ validity. Second, the indicators are constructed using an approach grounded in crisp-set theory and data from the Dutch “Organisatie Strategisch Arbeidsmartkonderzoek” labor supply panel. Finally, the indicators are tested by assessing precarious employment over time, by educational level, sector and immigrant status.     

Self-Reported Satisfaction and the Economic Crisis of 2007–2010: Or How People in the UK and Germany Perceive a Severe Cyclical Downturn

Self-reported satisfaction measures respond to a great variety of socio-demographic characteristics as well as the job and living environment. In this paper we ask whether the recent financial market crisis has caused a deterioration of satisfaction not only for the unemployed but also for those out of the labour force and especially those in employment. The focus of our analyses is on the pattern of life, job and health satisfaction over time and the influence of unemployment rates, inflation rates and GDP growth. We compare the UK and Germany, two countries with different employment protection regulations and different consequences of the crisis for the labour market. For our analysis we use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and the British Household Panel Study for the period 1996–2010 and supplement this with annual information on macroeconomic indicators. We estimate Ordered Logit and OLS models, both with individual fixed effects. We find some limited psychological costs with respect to self-reported life satisfaction in the crisis years, and a considerable impact of regional and national unemployment rates. Looking at job and health satisfaction we get similar though somewhat weaker results.     

Cyclical variations in unemployment duration

In this paper I study how individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, using unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. A compositional, an outflow, and a residual calendar-time component are identified, and they all contribute to explaining the variations in unemployment duration. Based on the analysis it is concluded that long-term unemployment is a phenomenon that is associated with periods of high unemployment, but nothing should prevent the long-term unemployed finding jobs again as aggregate unemployment eventually starts falling. In particular, there is no evidence of negative duration dependence, not even at long durations, and not when aggregate unemployment is high. Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999     

Do stepping-stone jobs exist? Early career paths in the medical profession

In the Netherlands, students who want to become a medical specialist have to enrol in a training program which is in limited supply. During the search for a position as trainee (or “junior medical specialist”), they may accept a temporary job as a medical assistant. We use a micro data set to investigate whether such work experience increases the probability of becoming junior medical specialist. To deal with selectivity, we simultaneously model the transitions from unemployment to trainee, from unemployment to medical assistant, from medical assistant to trainee and from medical assistant to unemployment. We find that a job as medical assistant helps to become a medical specialist. Received: 27 July 2000/Accepted: 31 January 2001 All correspondence to Gerard J. van den Berg. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

The duration of unemployment in Russia

This paper uses longitudinal survey data to assess factors affecting the duration of unemployment in Russia. We examine four types of marginalised labour force participants, according to ILO guidelines and survey responses, and we estimate duration models for each type. It turns out that the sets of characteristics with the strongest effects on the duration are remarkably similar across the different unemployment definitions and model specifications. Therefore, despite the formidable practical measurement problems, problematic groups of individuals can actually be identified. Received: 27 January 1999/Accepted: 27 January 2000     

Poland on the dole: The effect of reducing the unemployment benefit entitlement period during transition

We analyse the unemployment benefit regime change that occurred in Poland in December 1991 using data from the Polish Labour Force Survey. Before December 1991, the entitlement period to unemployment benefits was unlimited. Thereafter, it was reduced to 12 months (with a few exceptions). Using the difference-in-differences approach within a hazard rate framework, we find that the regime change did not have a significant effect on the duration of unemployment. The results thus give credence to the view that the unlimited entitlement period of the old unemployment benefit regime was not the main culprit for the long durations of unemployment in Poland, although the generous eligibility criteria may have contributed to the increase in the incidence of registered unemployment at the beginning of the transition process. Received: 21 May 1997/Accepted: 15 March 1999     

Transitions from employment among young Norwegian workers

In a large representative sample of young Norwegian workers, we estimate gross transitions to unemployment, education, and other exits in a multinomial logit. In line with received literature, we find that individuals with high education, experience, and income have significantly lower probabilities of job exits. While female education rates have increased to surpass those of males, female labour market outcomes are still more responsive to family related background characteristics as compared with the outcomes for males. Received: 17 October 1996/Accepted: 5 March 1999     

Do immigrants displace young native workers: The Austrian experience

This paper studies the effect of increased immigration in Austria on the unemployment risk of young natives. Austria experienced a dramatic rise in the share of alien workers as a result of the breakdown of the former communist regimes (especially from former Yugoslavia). We concentrate on unemployment entry of young male workers, who are supposed to compete most heavily with new immigrants. Our results indicate that the detrimental impact – if it exists at all – is only minor. This is irrespective of the analyzed proxy for competition: The share of foreign workers in an industry or in a region. Received: 7 March 1996/Accepted: 20 March 1998     

农民工失业保险需求影响因素研究——基于深圳市农民工调查的分析

根据2008年5月对深圳市农民工失业保险现状与需求实态调查数据,运用Logistic回归模型,定量分析了农民工参加失业保险的主要影响因素。研究结果表明：农民工的文化程度、支出水平、再就业的难易程度、在城市工作的年限、长远打算和对未来生活的预期是影响其参保的主要因素,提出了尽快把农民工纳入失业保险范围、加强农民工的教育培训和拓展就业途径等政策建议。     

Deciphering the Relationship Between Internal Migration and Regional Disparities in Tunisia

This study analyses the key factors that shape inter-governorates migration in Tunisia, focusing mainly on the role of demographic, geographical and socio-economic factors in driving migration flows. It uses basic and extended gravity models, as well as Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood model for modeling migration data to assess the relative importance of distance, job market characteristics and economic variables. The main findings reveal that inter-governorate migrations in Tunisia are affected by high population size at the origin and destination locations, high unemployment rate at the origin and low unemployment rate at the destination. The results suggest also that migration flows are negatively affected by high job vacancies and the annual average per capita household expenditure at the origin.     

失业保险对失业持续时间的影响——以厦门为例

本文采用厦门市失业者登记信息数据库的数据,应用Cox比例风险回归模型分析失业保险对失业持续时间的影响,实证分析结果表明性别、失业前月工资收入、失业保险发放期限和失业保险发放标准会影响失业者失业持续时间。     

Mismatch in the Norwegian Labour Market 2003–2013: Did Immigrants Make a Difference?

For the Norwegian economy, 2003–2013 was a period of large growth and big business cycle fluctuations. The aggregate uv-curve reflects this and shows a reduction in both the vacancy rate and the unemployment rate from 2003 to 2013, suggesting improved labour market matching over the period. The inclusion of Eastern European countries in the European Union in 2004 and 2007 caused an increasing influx of foreign job seekers. I quantify regional and occupational mismatch, and make a distinction between natives and immigrants. Indicators show no reduction in mismatch over time, which therefore cannot account for the increased labour market efficiency that the uv-curve suggests. However, ‘footloose’ immigrants seem to have adapted better than ‘rooted’ natives to the structure of labour demand in the regional dimension, and thus to have contributed to a lower level of mismatch than would have resulted without immigrants. In the occupational dimension immigrants made no significant difference. Levels and differences in employment and unemployment among and between immigrants and natives were not well explained by their education levels or types.     

Job opportunities,economic resources,and the postsecondary destinations of American youth

Using a nationally representative sample of graduates from the high school class of 2003-2004, I test the warehouse hypothesis, which contends that youth are more likely to leave school and enter the labor force when there are available job opportunities (and vice versa). Using two measures of job opportunities—local unemployment rates and the percentage of local workers employed in jobs that require a bachelor’s degree—I find support for the warehouse hypothesis. In areas where unemployment is low, with ample jobs that do not require a bachelor’s degree, youth have higher odds of entering the labor force. In areas where unemployment is high, with few jobs that require only a high school diploma, youth have higher odds of entering college. The effect of unemployment on enrollment is more pronounced for low-income youth than for high-income youth, with both low- and high-income youth turning to four-year schools rather than two-year schools when job opportunities are limited.     

流动人口群体特征变动与失业风险差异

本文采用2014年和2017年流动人口动态监测数据,探讨了中国省际流动人口失业风险的变动趋势以及影响因素.研究发现:2017年省际流动人口失业风险比2014年高出26％.性别、受教育程度、流动原因、流入地地域等变量对流动人口失业风险的边际影响出现了明显上升趋势.Oaxaca分解结果表明,流动人口失业风险上升的63.67...     

流动人口初职时间间隔及其影响因素的性别差异——基于生存分析的视角

基于福建省2977个流动人口职业流动的个体历时数据,应用Kaplan-Meyer方法和Cox比例风险模型方法,对不同性别流动人口的初职时间间隔及其影响因素的异同进行分析。研究发现,与男性流动人口相比,女性流动人口离开初职的概率略小,但在初职的时间间隔偏短。在初职时间间隔的影响因素中,初职收入、教育年限、婚姻状态、家庭迁移类型和流入地城镇等级规模的影响存在性别共性,而家庭抚养比、职业类型、企业性质和来源地类型的影响存在性别差异。     

When informal is normal… On the role of credentials and contacts for the job entry in Serbia

The paper focuses on the roles of human capital and social resources in structuring young people's entries into either the formal or the informal labour market in the Serbian transformation society. Results show that informal labour market in Serbia follows the structure of the secondary labour market and signals vulnerability on part of youths employed there. Education dropouts are largely channelled to the informal sector, whereas favourably educated Serbian graduates are less attracted to it. Job search via social networks facilitates entry to unregistered employment, but slows down entry to registered employment for job seekers. Whereas stratification of labour market entry by education largely follows patterns of primary and secondary labour market attainment in any industrialized society, the effects of contacts might exhibit traces of inefficiencies peculiar to the transformation countries. Analyses are conducted on the basis of the Serbian school-leaver survey (2006) applying event history modelling and binomial regression analysis.     

The socio-economic status of migrant populations in regional and rural Australia and its implications for future population policy

The migrant population living in regional and rural Australia has been growing, partly because of the introduction and expansion of a number of state-specific and regional migration programs by the Australian Government over the period since 1995. The programs were created in response to both the skill shortages in regional and rural Australia and environmental and social critiques of urban migration. This study uses data from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing in Australia to compare five socio-economic measures: labour force participation, unemployment, income, educational attainment, and occupational status, between the migrant and Australia-born populations. The results reveal that the migrant population in regional and rural Australia now records similar values for the labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, median individual weekly income, and proportion in high skill level occupations to the Australia-born population. The most notable difference is that migrants have a substantially higher level of education, particularly university education. The differences between men and women on these socio-economic measures are wider for the migrant population than for the Australia-born. Recently-arrived migrants are significantly more educated, more highly skilled and higher paid than their longer-standing counterparts. The study also discusses the differences between the larger migrant groups living in regional and rural Australia. The improvement in the socio-economic outcomes experienced by the migrant population of regional and rural Australia and their broad similarity to those of the Australia-born living in these regions strengthen the case for increasing the proportion of migrant settlers going to these regions.