Dividend yield and stability versus performance on the German stock market: a descriptive study

It is often examined in the literature whether the dividend yields of stocks correlate with their total returns. This paper analyzes the effect of dividend yield on return as well as on risk and on performance of stocks and stock portfolios on the German market. Not only the influence of dividend yield but also of dividend stability is subject to our analysis. Furthermore, tax aspects are considered. However, this study should rather be seen as an empirical analysis of the influence of dividends as a capital market anomaly than a theoretical based validation approach. Our data set comprises daily adjusted stock prices and dividend payment data from the German capital market over the period 3 January 2000–31 July 2008. This period was characterized by a high volatility of the stock market. In addition to the existing literature examining mainly the long-term influence of dividend yields, we also want to find out whether stocks with high and stable dividend payments are able to reduce the risk of a stock investment in short time periods characterized by extreme conditions. We use blue chips (DAX), stocks of medium-sized companies (MDAX), and stocks of technology firms (TecDAX). Our findings suggest that stock performance generally improves with an increasing dividend yield, where this result is actually based on risk reduction instead of a higher return. However, this risk reduction diminishes with an increasing degree of diversification.     

民营上市公司实际控制人与现金股利研究

实际控制人对上市公司的现金股利分配具有重要影响。本文以2004-2006年沪深证券交易所的民营上市公司为样本,对实际控制人与现金股利之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果证实,实际控制人通过IPO的方式获得上市公司的控制权同现金股利显著正相关,控制权与现金流权同现金股利显著正相关,控制权与现金流权发生分离和采用金字塔控制方式同现金股利显著负相关。而且,与通过非IPO的方式获得上市公司控制权的实际控制人相比,通过IPO的方式获得上市公司控制权的实际控制人其控制权与现金流权对现金股利的影响更加显著,控制权与现金流权发生分离和控制方式为金字塔时发放的现金股利更多。     

Revisiting the stock price impact of quality awards

In an event study, Hendricks and Singhal [Hendricks KB, Singhal VR. Quality awards and the market value of the firm: an empirical investigation. Management Sci 1996;42:415–36.] find evidence that firms that win quality awards are further rewarded with a stock price increase on the day of the award announcement. We revisit Hendricks and Singhal (1996), extend their research and find four reasons why management, owners and analysts should be cautious about expecting an abnormal return when a firm wins a quality award. First, in our sample of Baldrige Award winners, the evidence of a stock price response on the announcement day is only marginally significant. Second, in our sample of State quality award winners, the announcement day relationship between stock returns and winning awards is not significant. Third, in the most recent subperiod, 1992–1997, we find no evidence of positive abnormal returns. Fourth, the marginally significant Baldrige results are actually driven by just four companies. A company-by-company microanalysis reveals that only 50% of the award winners experienced positive abnormal returns. The diminishing stock price response on event day does not necessarily imply a lack of stockholder rewards. Evidence from other studies suggests that the stockholders are rewarded for successful total quality management (TQM) implementation, but the rewards can come long before and after the formal award is presented. From a shareholder value perspective, TQM still matters but the award ceremonies may not.     

股票市场历史信息的长记忆性特征研究

回顾历史是为了预测未来,历史能够蕴含事物发展的脉络和内在规律。那么投资者能否通过对股市历史的分析来制定投资决策以及预测未来走势?文章选择中国沪深两市指数、亚洲有代表性的日经225指数以及在世界金融市场有重要影响的标准普尔500指数为研究对象,运用动态估计方法,对股市长记忆性的时变特征进行分析,探讨股票市场历史信息的可鉴性;除采用修正R/S方法、LW估计外,又加入较为新颖的ELW和FLW两种方法作为对比。实证结果表明,虽然几种方法得出的时变长记忆参数并非完全相同,但是有关股市长记忆性的结论基本一致;股市收益序列在整个样本区间并未表现出显著的长记忆性,但在极端事件发生时,收益序列会表现出显著的相关性,体现了股市长记忆性的时变特征,此时可以通过对历史数据信息的分析,达到规避极端风险的目的。     

股利政策的股东财富效应:来自中国股市的经验证据

国内现有文献关于上市公司股利政策的研究,主要集中在股利政策的信号传递理论、代理成本理论和影响因素三个方面,对上市公司通过股利分配实现股东高回报率的股东财富效应研究较少,而国外从税收政策变化和税负差异的角度研究股利政策财富效应并不适合中国的情况。为此,本文基于我国上市公司股权分置的特殊治理结构,以2003-2004年所有分配股利的上市公司为样本,实证检验了我国上市公司股利政策的股东财富效应。研究表明,分配现金股利使非流通股股东实现高回报率,流通股股东获得股票股利的较高短期收益率。     

From zero-sum to win-win - Organisational conditions for successful shared value strategy implementation

The number of publications on shared value strategies (SVSs) is continuously increasing. Literature does not answer the question which organisational conditions are necessary and which conjunctions of conditions are sufficient for the successful implementation of SVSs. This research aims at filling the gap by condensing empirical evidence found in the literature on successful SVSs, stakeholder management, corporate social responsibility, and positive social change. The article synthesises the findings of these streams of research into a set-theoretical framework and proposes five complex conditions necessary for successful SVS implementation: shared value-oriented entrepreneurial vision, strategic alignment (STA), shared value-oriented innovation (SVI), networking capabilities (NCs), and impact monitoring. Additional empirical evidence from cases claiming successful implementation of SVS allows the suggestion of several simple conditions constituting the complex conditions. Qualitative comparative analysis can be used for empirically testing the necessity of the suggested conditions and the sufficiency of conjunctions of complex conditions for SVS implementation success. The proposed framework enhances theoretical knowledge concerning successful SVS implementation and is an important step to support management efforts in reorienting their companies from zero-sum strategies to win-win SVSs.     

非连续不确定时间股息和可修正执行价格的权证定价研究

本文通过引入股息期货合约这一概念,得出考虑了非连续不确定时间股息的欧式权证定价模型,并结合我国市场上通行的权证行权价格修正条款,研究出适合我国市场权证的、考虑非连续不确定时间股息和可修正执行价格的欧式权证定价模型。并以阿胶EJC1为例进行了实证研究,研究表明新的模型较经典的Black-Scholes模型能更优地对中国权证进行定价。研究还表明:权证的行权价格修正条款并不能完全消除股息发放对权证价值的影响,权证价值仍然因为股息发放而减少。     

审计师关注客户所在地区社会信任水平吗? ——基于Pecking Order模型的研究

文章利用CGSS调查数据度量客户所在地区的社会信任水平,进而考察其对审计师决策的影响。文章首先分别考察了社会信任水平与审计定价、出具非标审计意见的倾向、审计师变更之间的关系,结果发现,公司所在地区的社会信任水平与审计定价、审计师变更均呈显著负向关系,表明审计师会对位于高社会信任地区的客户收取更低的审计费用、审计契约更为稳定,但社会信任与审计师出具非标意见的倾向之间没有显著关联。有序Logistic检验结果表明,在审计定价和审计师变更决策之间,审计师存在优先选择次序:对于低社会信任地区客户,他们会优先通过提高审计收费的手段来控制相关风险。只有在风险超出其承受力、不能通过提高审计费用来控制时,才会放弃客户。此外,文章还发现,地区法治水平能够缓解社会信任对审计师决策的影响。这一研究有助于加深社会信任与审计师决策之间关系的理解,并有助于理解审计师的风险管理策略。     

Occupational Upgrading and the Business Cycle

Many economics theories suggest that the assignment of workers to occupations changes over the business cycle: expansions allow workers to upgrade to occupations that pay higher wages and require more skill. This paper provides some empirical evidence from the USA that such upgrading does occur and that, as predicted, it has greater effects on less‐skilled individuals. Furthermore, the skill composition of new hires changes over the business cycle, even within occupations. Consistent with a job competition model, the education levels of new hires within occupations are higher when the unemployment rate is high and this effect is more pronounced in lower‐paying occupations. The changes in assignment imply that low‐skilled individuals suffer most from recessions in terms of occupation quality and unemployment. The results are consistent with employers responding to a greater supply of educated workers by increasing hiring standards, and so imply that the social return to education may be lower than the private return. However, the results are also consistent with more neo‐classical models of the labor market.     

The pressure cooker: When crisis stimulates explorative business model change intentions

How do firms respond to critical threats, such as regulatory turmoils or disruptive innovations? After more than three decades of contradicting theoretical arguments and inconsistent empirical results, this question remains unresolved. One view argues for and finds evidence for amplified propensity to engage in change when organization members perceive critical threat. The other view supports the threat-rigidity phenomenon, reinforcing resistance to change through a focus on habitual practices and routines. To resolve this puzzle, we draw on the multi-dimensional framework of ‘crisis’ strategic issues processing, supplemented with the behavioral decision making perspective. In particular, we investigate the conditions of emergence of radical (explorative) business model change intentions within organizations in response to major threats. The resulting model suggests that cognitive moderators – perceived predictability and time pressure – lead to highly divergent results of critical threat perception, such that low predictability and high time pressure attenuate the threat-induced explorative business model change intentions. The model is tested in two empirical contexts, real estate brokerage and higher education, finding strong empirical support.     

Craft,magic and the re-enchantment of the world

This essay challenges the prevailing view of progressive rationality and disenchantment as set out in Max Weber's social theory and reproduced in organizational neo-institutionalism. We observe that rationality and disenchantment cannot exist in the absence of magic, mystery and enchantment. We argue that the contemporary celebration of rationality and disenchantment is a modernist discourse that has marginalized equally compelling instances of re-enchantment. Drawing from the popular press and management research we identify five themes of re-enchantment in the world; the rise of populism, the return of tribalism, the resurgence of religion, the re-enchantment of science and the return to craft. We use these phenomena to elaborate four alternative constructs – authenticity, reflexivity, mimesis and incantation - that counterbalance the over rationalized and paralyzing concepts in neo-institutionalism – legitimacy, embeddedness, isomorphism and diffusion.     

Corporate social responsibility,board of directors,and firm performance: an analysis of their relationships

This paper aims to contribute to the empirical evidence relating corporate social responsibility (CSR), board composition, and firm performance. Using a sample of Spanish listed firms included in the IBEX 35 over the period 2005–2010 the results show that the percentage of independent directors affect firm CSR activities, and that this effect is moderated by the resources available to the firm (measured by return on assets). Also, the CSR has a mediating role on the relation between the independence of the board of directors and firm value. These results hold for other board characteristics (board size and women as directors).     

A Mental Model Proposed to Address Sustainability and Terrorism Issues

I have assembled traditional ways to think about human needs and power along with empirical data to support a mental model of human values. The hierarchy of needs from the world of psychology and the hierarchy of power from the world of diplomacy provide a structure for the model. The empirical data collected from several nations over the last three decades support the structure. Furthermore, an examination of specific trends in this data for specific values indicates that it is not impossible to achieve a sustainable world driven by sustainable values. A world that will be defined by its successful movement toward the "triple bottom line," a term articulated by John Elkington, is a world in which economic prosperity, environmental protection, and social equity are aligned. To say that the model allows one to address terrorism is based on the assumption that the lack of social equity or the perception of that lack determines the likelihood of terrorism.     

LYING ABOUT WHAT YOU KNOW OR ABOUT WHAT YOU DO?

We compare communication about private information to communication about actions in a one‐shot 2‐person public good game with private information. The informed player, who knows the exact return from contributing and whose contribution is unobserved, can send a message about the return or her contribution. Theoretically, messages can elicit the uninformed player's contribution, and allow the informed player to free‐ride. The exact language used is not expected to matter. Experimentally, however, we find that free‐ride depends on the language: the informed player free‐rides less—and thereby lies less frequently—when she talks about her contribution than when she talks about the return. Further experimental evidence indicates that it is the promise component in messages about the contribution that leads to less free‐ride and less lying.     

When to Carry Eccentric Products? Optimal Retail Assortment under Consumer Returns

To understand whether retailers should consider consumer returns when merchandising, we study how the optimal assortment of a retailer is influenced by its return policy. The retailer selects its assortment from an exogenous set of horizontally differentiated products. Consumers make purchase and keep/return decisions in nested multinomial logit fashion. Our main finding is that the optimal assortment has a distinct structure for relatively strict return policies: it is optimal to offer a mix of the most popular and most eccentric products when the refund amount is sufficiently low, which can be viewed as a form of risk sharing between the retailer and consumers. In contrast, if the refund is sufficiently high or when returns are disallowed, the optimal assortment is composed of only the most popular products (a common finding in the literature). We provide preliminary empirical evidence for one of the key drivers of our results: more eccentric products have higher probability of return—conditional on purchase. In light of our analytical findings and managerial insights, we conclude that retailers should take returns into account when merchandising.     

我国上市公司高管人员过度自信与股利分配决策的理论和实证研究

在现有研究成果的基础上,在假设上市公司高管人员过度自信的条件下,建立恰当的数学模型从理论上研究上市公司高管人员的过度自信心理偏好对公司股利分配决策的影响机理。同时,以中国上市公司为样本对我国上市公司高管人员的过度自信心理偏好如何影响其股利分配决策进行实证研究。研究结果表明,当上市公司高管人员观察到的项目信号值大于项目质量均值时,股利分配水平与其过度自信负相关;当高管人员观察到的信号值小于项目质量均值时,股利分配水平与其过度自信正相关;在我国股票市场环境下,股利分配水平在过度自信高管人员经营的公司中更高。     

A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments

A wide body of empirical evidence finds that approximately 25 percent of fiscal stimulus payments (e.g., tax rebates) are spent on nondurable household consumption in the quarter that they are received. To interpret this fact, we develop a structural economic model where households can hold two assets: a low‐return liquid asset (e.g., cash, checking account) and a high‐return illiquid asset that carries a transaction cost (e.g., housing, retirement account). The optimal life‐cycle pattern of portfolio choice implies that many households in the model are “wealthy hand‐to‐mouth”: they hold little or no liquid wealth despite owning sizable quantities of illiquid assets. Therefore, they display large propensities to consume out of additional transitory income, and small propensities to consume out of news about future income. We document the existence of such households in data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. A version of the model parameterized to the 2001 tax rebate episode yields consumption responses to fiscal stimulus payments that are in line with the evidence, and an order of magnitude larger than in the standard “one‐asset” framework. The model's nonlinearities with respect to the rebate size and the prevailing aggregate economic conditions have implications for policy design.     

The Significance of Socioeconomic and Ethnic Diversity for the Risk Communication Process

Risk communication is being characterized as one way of facilitating more effective, democratic and participatory risk management strategies. An emphasis on formal communication approaches as a means to improve decisions and decrease conflict will highlight the challenge of managing hazards within a culturally heterogeneous society. Communication and participatory strategies will be considered successful only if diverse communities can be engaged as partners in the policy process. Because responses to risks are embedded and evolve within broader social environments, achieving the promise of risk communication across a diverse society may not be possible absent an understanding of how sociocultural variables and past experiences shape the exchange of ideas or information in any particular situation. This paper considers the implications of ethnic and socioeconomic variability for the risk communication process, summarizing theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence on the link between sociocultural features and risk responses. Specifically, the factors that define the context of communication may influence: the initial framing of a risk issue, particularly, the adoption of an environmental justice vs. scientific/economic perspective; the perceived importance of various aspects of the decision problem; and prior beliefs about environmental hazards and agencies involved in risk management. Two examples of situations requiring communications about risk are presented and illustrate how these principles could operate in minority or lower-income communities. A significant challenge for health and regulatory officials will be to engage in an interactive process of information and opinion exchanges that is reasonable and effective within vastly different socioeconomic and cultural contexts.     

Internal corporate governance mechanisms as drivers of firm value: panel data evidence for Chilean firms

The paper analyses to what extent ownership structure, capital structure, and dividend policy as corporate governance mechanisms drive the firm value. From a data panel of publicly quoted Chilean firms for the years 2002–2010, we find that there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between ownership concentration and firm value. The positive slope is supported by the supervision hypothesis; whilst the negative relation between ownership concentration and firm value is supported by the expropriation hypothesis. We also find that there is a positive impact of both leverage and the dividend pay-out on the firm value. In this case, these two mechanisms reduce the free cash flows which otherwise might be used opportunistically by managers in their own interests (free rider problem). Contrary to the previous empirical literature in Chile, it is found that the mere fact that a firm is affiliated to a business group/conglomerate impacts positively its value. This positive effect is basically driven by the development of intragroup capital markets, and the governance imposed by the rules of the conglomerate.     

Sustainable supply chain practices: an empirical investigation on Indian automobile industry

The purpose of this research study is to analyze sustainable supply chain (SSC) management practices for Indian automobile industry and to identify the critical factors for its successful implementation. Despite the fact that SSC has been frequently promoted as a means of improving business competitiveness, little empirical evidence exists in the literature validating its positive link with organizational performance. Sustainable supply chain practices (SSCP) not only help in reducing environmental degradation but it also has social and economic implications (as per tipple bottom line approach). For this purpose, empirical data is collected to measure the SSCP prevailing in Indian automobile industry. A structural equation modeling technique is used to build the measurement and structural models. Later, statistical estimates are used to validate the model that has been built. The data analysis helps to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis that has been stated based on the structural model. The result shows how SSCP are correlated and help in improving the supply chain performance among the industries being surveyed. It is also observed that environmental and social performance have a positive relationship with economic performance.