中国股票市场的有效性检验与分析

中国股票市场是否具有有效性,对于其资本资源配置功能及自身建设和走向国际市场意义重大。我们通过X2拟合检验法和偏度、峰度检验法可以发现中国股市尚未达到强有效;而序列相关和游程检验法的结果说明中国股市也未达到弱有效。中国股市存在着用显的周末效应。进一步通过ARIMA模型可以验证上海、深圳股市的同步性。     

中国城市食品消费中的原产地效应

在国际营销研究领域,原产地因素得到了较为广泛的研究。但在中国经济飞速发展的今天,中国城市食品消费市场上,相关研究还较少。本文试图揭示中国城市消费者在食品消费时,是否出现原产地效应,以及原产地效应的影响变量问题。本文抽取北京、昆明、南昌三市共600个消费者样本,运用参数检验法进行实证研究后发现,在中国城市食品消费市场上,原产地因素对消费者的品质认知及购买意向均有显著影响。其影响变量主要有性别、收入等。     

越轨:一种新的视阈——从社会差别的角度看越轨

对越轨行为的成因、本质以及如何有效的进行调控 ,历史上有生物学、心理学、社会学等多种理论的解释。但这些理论有一些共同的局限性 ,阻碍着对越轨问题的深刻认识。从社会差别制度化的角度来看 ,越轨行为是对社会差别制度化的反叛。制度创新则是解决越轨问题的有效途径和根本方法     

司法潜见对定罪过程的影响

如何看待无罪率,折射出打击犯罪与保护人权之间的内在紧张关系。以32万刑事判决为样本,对其中的有罪判决与无罪判决进行量化比较,结果发现,无罪与有罪的司法决定不完全取决于案件基本事实是否符合实体定罪条件,它还与刑事诉讼过程中的某种司法潜见有关。司法潜见源于证据信息不对称、实体性暗示、控辩力量对比悬殊、控方对案件的初选等四类背景信息,使司法人员对案件是否有罪的最终结果早有心理准备和预期。司法潜见包括无罪潜见,也包括有罪潜见。由于司法潜见的存在,一些有罪判决是实体定罪条件与有罪潜见的综合产物,因而零无罪率是不可能的。司法潜见位于形式理性与实质理性二元分析框架的盲区,只有在坚持形式理性的过程中,自觉控制司法潜见的影响,才能实现对公民刑事法权利的平等保护。     

精神损害赔偿的类型化评定与法官自由裁量

本文针对目前精神损害赔偿评定缺乏统一量化标准的现状 ,着重从中国十年来精神损害赔偿实践情况、确定数额依据和有关研究成果入手 ,通过借鉴国内外确定赔偿数额的有益的原则和方法 ,提炼立法和实务经验 ,深入地探究精神损害的内在结构及其特点 ,分别对精神损害赔偿的类型化评定 ,进行法律技术处理 ,提出不同的适用原则和方法 ,并结合实例加以阐释。在这个评定过程中 ,文章强调重视法官的自由心证裁量权的运用及其作用。     

有关并购中价值来源的一项实证研究

有关公司并购后是否创造价值的争论还在继续,需要深入研究的是公司并购中价值源于何处?根据并购是否创造价值可以从是否提高公司经济增加值来判断的准则,以独立样本T检验方法对张小宁提出的E-VA五个层面分析指标进行实证研究后发现,提高营业EVA是并购后主并公司和目标公司提升价值的共同来源,而主并公司还能通过合理的避税来进一步提升价值。     

浅谈黑格尔关于同一、差别、对立、矛盾诸概念的涵义

<正> 黑格尔关于同一、差别、对立、矛盾诸概念及其相互联系的论述,实质上创立了对立统一的系统学说。尽管这些论述是以客观唯心主义为基础的,被裹上了神秘的坚硬外壳,但对于辩证法思想的发展仍作出了杰出贡献。黑格尔认为,矛盾的产生和发展过程是本质自身的“反思”运动(本质向自身内部深入的无限运动),开始是作为不同规定的同一出现的,然后产生差别,转而成为对立,最后显     

对体育教学过程优化程度的评价

对体育教学过程优化程度的评价,是实现体育教学过程最优化不可缺少的一个环节。通过评价,可以为整个教学过程的优化提供必要的反馈指导。评价步骤与方法如下:１、教学目标效果评价目标效果评价是指对教学实际效果与教学目标设计的比较和分析。目标效果的评定在体育教学中是完全可以做到的。比如:身体素质的教学目标可以分类量化。其中弹跳素质的目标效果可以这样确定:假设某生的原始纵跳成绩为Ｅ,在教学中教师额定目标为Ｄ,经过优化教学测定某生的实际纵跳成绩为Ｆ,则某生在经过最优化的教学训练后所得教学目标效果为:Ｘ＝Ｆ-ＥＤ-Ｅ×１０…     

网络差别定价的类判与规制

《个人信息保护法》对自动化决策下的差别定价进行了规定,但缺乏对网络差别定价合理标准及规制路径的指引。根据程序公平是否完备,可将网络差别定价分为两类：一是经营者告知消费者差别定价,对该类差别定价合理性的判断应从格式条款入手,并以是否显著高于正常定价为标准;二是经营者未告知消费者差别定价,判断标准是差别定价行为是否符合特定原则,并与同类消费者进行价格比较。合理的网络差别定价可以实现帕累托有效配置,不合理的网络差别定价容易导致不平等的市场结构,损害社会整体福利。因此应探索相应的规制路径,首先可以改进隐私协议和告知方式,完善消费者的同意权与选择权,同时应确立网络经营者的信义义务。其次,应从网络差别定价的特殊性入手,强化行业组织的算法规制、公益诉讼的主动参与、多元化规制措施的运用。另外,行政机关可在模拟经营者需求曲线的基础上促使网络经营者主动去合规,从而提高行政监管的专业能力。最后配套技术的完善和区块链技术的运用使消费者能主动甄别不合理的网络差别定价,从而减少不合理网络差别定价产生的损害。     

论后天物理主义视角下“红色”的物理还原

物理事实和感受质之间关系是心灵哲学的争点之一，涉及感受质是否可以进行物理还原、是否存在解释鸿沟等诸多问题。本文以“红色”这一既具有物理客观性，又可以作为人的感受质存在的对象为切入点进行分析。在后天物理主义的视角下，可量化的客观“红色”和作为感受质的“红色”的先天同一关系被拆解开，前者作为外部世界的物理事实，后者作为人类认识外部世界的神经过程，进而使后者可以被还原为物理状态，从而保障了物理主义的可行性。     

大数据产业相关市场界定的困境与出路

相关市场的界定是反垄断执法的首要前提,也是反垄断法司法适用的重要基础性工作。传统的相关市场分析方法主要是定量的SSNIP分析和定性的产品替代分析,它们主要基于传统的实体行业而设计。在大数据产业中,由于大数据产品、服务具有双边市场、“免费”模式、用户锁定效应和网络外部性等特征,用传统方法界定相关市场存在诸多弊端,应该结合大数据产品和服务的特征,改进传统SSNIP分析法路径,并综合借鉴SSNIC分析法、盈利模式测试法和产品性能测试法等,方能对大数据产业相关市场作出准确、科学、合理界定。     

To thine own self be true? Clarifying the effects of identity discrepancies on psychological distress and emotions

After many years of research across disciplines, it remains unclear whether people are more motivated to seek appraisals that accurately match self-views (self-verification) or are as favorable as possible (self-enhancement). Within sociology, mixed findings in identity theory have fueled the debate. A problem here is that a commonly employed statistical approach does not take into account the direction of a discrepancy between how we see ourselves and how we think others see us in terms of a given identity, yet doing so is critical for determining which self-motive is at play. We offer a test of three competing models of identity processes, including a new “mixed motivations” model where self-verification and self-enhancement operate simultaneously. We compare the models using the conventional statistical approach versus response surface analysis. The latter method allows us to determine whether identity discrepancies involving over-evaluation are as distressing as those involving under-evaluation. We use nationally representative data and compare results across four different identities and multiple outcomes. The two statistical approaches lead to the same conclusions more often than not and mostly support identity theory and its assumption that people seek self-verification. However, response surface tests reveal patterns that are mistaken as evidence of self-verification by conventional procedures, especially for the spouse identity. We also find that identity discrepancies have different effects on distress and self-conscious emotions (guilt and shame). Our findings have implications not only for research on self and identity across disciplines, but also for many other areas of research that incorporate these concepts and/or use difference scores as explanatory variables.     

How dominance hierarchies emerge from conflict: A game theoretic model and experimental evidence

We develop a game theoretic model of conflict and empirically test its predictions to study the emergence of social hierarchies in small groups. Previous research shows uncertainty about actors' ability may lead to more conflict; conflict demonstrates actors' ability and establishes relationships of dominance and submissiveness. Since we assume uncertainty regarding ability to be a crucial cause of conflict, we focus on the effects of different information conditions. We posit that actors know the distribution of abilities in their group and vary whether or not they know (1) their own ability and (2) their interaction partners' interaction histories. Our results from a laboratory experiment closely match qualitative model predictions. Most importantly, conflict produces information about actors’ ability, which reduces subsequent conflict. In an exploratory analysis we investigate to what extent gender, social value orientation, risk preferences and a competitive personality account for the quantitative discrepancies between model predictions and subject behavior.     

Modeling repeated measures of dichotomous data: Testing whether the within-person trajectory of change varies across levels of between-person factors

In this paper, we consider the following question for the analysis of data obtained in longitudinal panel designs: How should repeated-measures data be modeled and interpreted when the outcome or dependent variable is dichotomous and the objective is to determine whether the within-person rate of change over time varies across levels of one or more between-person factors? Standard approaches address this issue by means of generalized estimating equations or generalized linear mixed models with logistic links. Using an empirical example and simulated data, we show (1) that cross-level product terms from these models can produce misleading results with respect to whether the within-person rate of change varies across levels of a dichotomous between-person factor; and (2) that subgroup differences in the rate of change should be assessed on an additive scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the probability of disease) rather than on a multiplicative scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the odds of disease). Because usual approaches do not provide a significance test for whether the rate of additive change varies across levels of a between-person factor, sample differences in the rate of additive change may be due to sampling error. We illustrate how standard software can be used to estimate and test whether additive changes vary across levels of a between-person factor.     

变化中的地理学及其实验技术的改进

从地理学史的研究中可以看出，地理学研究方法沿着描述——解释——系统分析与综合的道路发展。随着地理科学中现代数量研究方法的引入，地理科学的实验不再仅仅是自然地理的分析性实验，而是以３Ｓ为基础，理论地理学为指导，包括观测性实验、模拟性实验和试验性实验在内的实验体系。在高校地理教学中应改革实验设备的落后状况，建立新型的地理系统与地理过程研究实验室，并改革课程的设置，增加数理课程和现代技术课程的比重，加大实验课的份量     

文化的传承发展规律探析

人类社会无论是物质层次的实体文化创建,还是精神层次的观念文化形成,都应该有着一定的规律可循。我们可以从文化活动和文化创造的基本特性入手,深入探讨人类文化从客观到主观、从传统到现代、从同质到异质和从量变到质变的传承发展规律。     

Bridging the gap: Incorporating qualitative data into quantitative analyses

This paper describes a technique that allows a researcher to incorporate qualitative data from open-ended survey questions into a quantitative analysis. It involves storing the quantitative and qualitative data in two separate files using the same respondent identification number in each. These two files are then linked, via this identification number. This procedure allows one to: access relevant verbatim quotes, identify themes and subthemes, deal with ambiguous answers, interpret the quantitative findings, do deviant case analyses, and identify some types of coding errors. While the intent is for this to be used with large scale survey data, it can also be used in semistructured interviews. The advantage of this technique is that it facilitates the use of qualitative data using programs such as SPSS and SAS that are familiar to most quantitative researchers, without having to learn new skills.     

Measuring associations with randomized response

The view of many in the social science research community, it appears, underestimates the scope and potential of the randomized response technique, particularly with regard to its analytic capabilities. That is, there seems to be some concern that this data collection strategy is, by its nature, analytically restrictive. However, the quantitative, unrelated question model of randomized response can be reformulated into a measurement error model, which in turn allows a wide range of multivariate approaches. Also illustrated through a simulated correlation experiment is the type of adjustments that need to be made to manipulate randomized response data more powerfully than has been the practice in the past.     

区域战略性新兴产业的分阶段选择模型及应用——以重庆市为例

运用定量评价与定性分析相结合的研究方法,构建了区域战略性新兴产业的分阶段选择模型。模型将选择过程细分为区域分析、定量选择和综合分析三个阶段,解决目前战略性新兴产业分类与现有统计数据分类存在差异、选择过程复杂等问题。以重庆市为例进行实证分析：第一阶段通过对重庆市进行区位分析筛选出有色金属采选业、金融等35个产业;第二阶段针对第二产业和第三产业分别采用因子分析法和熵值法进行优选,得到交通运输设备制造业、金融等13个产业;第三阶段结合技术发展方向对以上产业进一步分析,提出重庆市战略新兴产业重点应放在高端装备制造业和新一代信息技术,其次是新能源汽车、生物医药和新能源领域。     

思想建党与制度治党同向发力 ——以国有企业党支部标准化建设为例

思想建党与制度治党是中国共产党政党治理中的核心。已有文献大多聚焦于“应然”层面的二者同时发力、同向发力的整合分析。以某国有企业推动的党支部标准化建设为个案,关注思想建党与制度治党同步共举、同向发力的“实然”层面。开发了思想建党效果与制度治党效果测量量表,提出基于党员个体认知-情感-行为互动模式下的思想建党与制度治党同向发力的结合点。研究表明,党员对以国有企业基层党组织标准化建设为抓手的思想建党和制度治党的认可度较高,不同性别、年龄、党龄阶段和是否担任党内职务对效果评价有相助影响,是否担任行政职务不影响党员的评价。研究采用相关分析方法验证了思想建党与制度治党同步共举、同向发力。