Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

A Critical Analysis of Australian Television Coverage of Election Opinion Polls

Much recent attention has focused on the nature and possibleeffects of media coverage of opinion polls. Accordingly, thisarticle reports the results of a detailed critical analysisof Victorian television news coverage of election opinion pollsduring the 1980 Australian federal election campaign. Five aspectsof the coverage were analyzed: its extent, focus, completeness,accuracy, and critical balance. The results of the study indicatethat the coverage was seriously, perhaps irredeemably, flawed     

The Poll as a News Event in the 1980 Presidential Campaign

Public opinion polls made up 15 percent of the news events coveredduring the 1980 presidential election campaign, but news storiesgenerated by polls were no more likely to receive better playin the 50 newspapers studied than other stories about the campaign.Horserace polls were popular with editors during the last twoweeks of the campaign.     

The Use of Polling in Congressional Campaigns

This study examines successful 1974 congressional campaignsthat used public opinion polling. The primary focus of the researchwas on where and how polling was used in the campaign and thefactors that influenced its use. Polling was most common inhighly competitive, well-financed races involving younger, lesspolitically experienced candidates. Surveys were typically begunquite early in the campaign and emphasized candidate standingand determined which issues were most salient to the electorate.The way polling was used was influenced primarily by party affiliation,the hiring of a professional polster and campaign expenditures     

The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election

The 2004 presidential election campaign provided a venue fora wide variety of polling, and it was not without its controversies.In the end, the final estimates of the preelection polls, thebread and butter of the polling industry, were very good atsuggesting it would be a close race, with Bush the likely winner.In historical perspective, the overall performance was aboveaverage for the period since 1956. Issues raised in the medialeading up to the end of the campaign and the final estimates,however, created some controversy, especially about the likelyvoter methodology used by different organizations. There werealso some anomalies at the end of the campaign as some firmsand collaborators ended up producing different estimates ofthe outcome depending on likely voter definitions or the modeof data collection.     

Of Polls, Mountains: U.S. Journalists and Their Use of Election Surveys

Polls are a prominent feature of U.S. election news coverage.Although polls are used to explain voter opinion, they are employedmostly to fuel horse-race coverage and to craft images consistentwith the candidates’ positions in the race. Moreover,U.S. journalists sometimes misinterpret polls by slighting thepossibility that changes in candidate preference are the resultof survey error rather than real change. On balance, U.S. journalists’dependence on polls adversely affects the quality of Americanelection coverage.     

Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.     

Exploring the Liaison Between Polling and the Press

Polling has taken on new dimensions with the upsurge of press-conductedpolls and surveys. This diffusion of polling technology raisesa number of issues for the press, for the institution of publicopinion polling, and for politics and policy making. News creationby polls offers the press some opportunities for altering andextending traditional modes of coverage of politics. But itposes some dangers as well, which deserve close attention.     

Variation in White House Polling Operations: Carter to Clinton

Using an entirely new data source, this article presents evidencethat significant variation exists in how much different presidentialadministrations use private White House polls. Federal ElectionCommission (FEC) disclosure records reveal the amount of moneythat presidents since Jimmy Carter paid (through their respectiveparty organizations) to the designated White House pollsters.These financial figures, in turn, roughly correlate with theestimated number of polls commissioned for the White House,as determined through archival research and information providedby the pollsters themselves. Two patterns emerge: some presidentspoll heavily from the start of their administrations (RonaldReagan and Bill Clinton); others poll only lightly during thefirst 3 years in office (Jimmy Carter and George Bush). Thesefindings reinforce scholarly assessments of Reagan and Clintonas pursuing a "permanent campaign" approach to leadership, whereasCarter and Bush lacked much interest in public relations techniques.Our evidence suggests a need for a refinement of the institutionalizationconcept as found in the academic literature on White House polling.We agree that all modern presidents inherit sophisticated toolsfor understanding public opinion, but we demonstrate that theydo not use these tools with equal attention or regularity. Putdifferently, a polling capability has been institutionalizedwithin the White house, but substantial variation still existsin how much a given administration uses that capability.     

Toward an Open-Source Methodology: What We Can Learn from the Blogosphere

During the 2004 election campaign, millions of political enthusiastsdownloaded poll data on the Internet, while "Weblogs" provideda new forum for commentary on survey methodology. At the sametime, traditional public opinion surveys came under pressurefrom declining cooperation, contact, and coverage rates, andmany automated and Internet surveys began to proliferate. Thisarticle provides some examples of "blog" commentary on automatedand Internet polls and then explores the lessons to be learnedfrom the spirit of innovation and openness of the Internet inevaluating new survey methods such as automated polls and thoseconducted over the Internet.     

WAR PROGRAMMING: The Propaganda Project and the Iraq War

The invasion of Iraq was justified to the American people by a sophisticated propaganda campaign that reflected a think tank's vision for a new foreign policy. One objective of this article is to set forth a theoretical argument for analyzing modern propaganda campaigns as a feature of mass-mediated discourse crafted by think tanks and highly organized claims makers. We propose that the current structure of policy and critique is now institutionalized and formatted as War Programming, which connects criticism within a narrative sequence, including critiques and reflections about journalistic failings. The scope of the action is so immense that it precludes and preempts its critique. The second objective is to show how the rationale for the invasion was developed as a "public conspiracy" over a decade by the members of the Project for a New American Century (PNAC). The third aim of this article is to describe and clarify why the PNAC plans for Iraq and an imperialist foreign policy received very little news media coverage. Qualitative content analysis of news materials suggests that the news sources and media shared a logic and perspective about "timely and entertaining news." The PNAC plan was not publicized by the major news media because it fell outside the focus of the Bush administration's propaganda campaign to demonize Iraq and its leader Saddam Hussein, who was held to be responsible for attacks on the United States. The implications of such a well-organized propaganda campaign for future news coverage of war are discussed.     

Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less

Changes in journalism—including newsroom cutbacks, anemphasis on repackaging secondhand material, and the demandsof 24-hour news—have expanded the reliance on polls asnews, including polls of a sort once considered not reliablefor publication, and led to a more superficial understandingof the 2004 presidential race. The proliferation of outletsoffering news, which has resulted in greater competition foraudience, has also intensified the motivation of using pollsin part for their marketing value rather than purely their probativejournalistic value. The more "synthetic" style of contemporaryjournalism has increased the tendency to allow polls to createa context for journalists to explain and organize other news—becomingthe lens through which reporters see and order a more interpretativenews environment. A greater dependence on horse race trackingpolls by the media has reinforced these tendencies and furtherthinned the public’s understanding toward who won andaway from why. Growing audience skepticism and political polarizationhave created an environment of distrust about the methodologyand integrity of polling. All of these factors, in turn, arefrustrating the efforts of academic and commercial pollstersto maintain standards and deepen understanding among journalistsabout public opinion research and how to use it as journalism.     

Horse-Race Journalism: Reporting the Polls in the 1976 Presidential Election

Reporting of public opinion polls conformed to a horse-raceimage of campaign reporting during the 1976 presidential election.Journalists avoided prediction, reported segments of the sample,selectively compared results, emphasized spectacles, questionedthe validity of polling, made a few mistakes, and ignored certaindata in their reporting. All these activities reinforced theimage of elections as a sporting event.     

The Role of Corporations in the 1980 U.S. Congressional Elections*

The issues of whether and how corporate campaign donations affect the operation of American elections have recently become the focus of public and scholarly debate. Using Federal Election Commission campaign finance data, this analysis identifies a link betwren contributions from business PACs and candidate success in the 1980 U.S. congressional elections. Findings also confirm an association between corporate support and legislative voting for candidates re-elected in 1980. Candidates heavily supported by business PACs during the campaign did better at the polls and were more likely to vote conservatively if elected than those not so strongly endorsed by economic interests. Results are discussed in terms of various theories of the state as well as their relevance to potential election finance reforms.     

Classifying Undecided Voters in Pre-Election Polls

The treatment of "don't know", "no opinion," or other nsonsubstantiveresponses is a problem in many consumer research surveys. Thispaper looks at the problem in the context of 1980 presidentialelection opinion polls. During the campaign, a relatively largeproportion of those interviewed said that they were undecidedas to whom they planned to vote for. Discriminant analysis isused to allocate undecided voters to candidates. The methodis validated by a postelection follow-up survey.     

Who is leading the campaign charts? Comparing individual popularity on old and new media

Attention in the mass media is seen as crucial for electoral success. However, most ordinary candidates hardly get any attention in the news. With social media outlets becoming ever more popular, the question is whether the overall asymmetry in attention for candidates still holds today. Do candidates who dominate the traditional media during the campaign also dominate the social media? Or can candidates make up for a lack of mass media coverage by attracting attention on these new media platforms? This paper aims to answer these questions by pairing Twitter activity and Twitter popularity with newspaper attention for a large number of individual candidates in the 2014 Belgian election campaign. We expand the normalization versus equalization debate by not only looking at how much a new medium is used, but also at its success in terms of popularity and audience reach. Our findings show that the two platforms are indeed related, mainly because a small political elite dominates both old and new media. Twitter popularity and Twitter activity (albeit to a lesser extent) are higher among powerful politicians. We elaborate on why these findings are so much in line with the normalization hypothesis.     

The Electoral Glass Ceiling

Abstract

Scholars such as Kahn and others have shown that the print news media have covered women candidates in ways likely to diminish their electoral viability. Those effects have yet to be verified in a non-experimentalsetting or extended to television. We offer non-experimental evidence of news-based effects for print news and television. We examine the effects of media coverage patterns by analyzing Senate races using the 1988-92 ANES Senate Election Study. Our results provide consistent support for the contention that news media coverage has disadvantaged women candidates in the eyes of voters. This work suggests a need for greater attention to research on broadcast news coverage of women candidates.     

Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics

Only in recent years has the "likely voter" technology beenextended to polls well in advance of an election. In the caseof the 2000 U.S. presidential election, CNN/USA Today/Galluptracking polls indicated considerable fluctuations in likelyvoter preferences, greater than among the larger pool of registeredvoters surveyed. This article explores how Gallup’s likelyvoter model exaggerates the reported volatility of voter preferencesduring the campaign. Much of the reported variation in candidatepreference reported by Gallup in that election is not due toactual voter shifts in preference but rather to changes in thecomposition of Gallup’s likely voter pool. The findingshighlight dangers of relying on samples of likely voters whenpolling well before Election Day.     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.