Period effects on race- and parity-specific birth probabilities of American women, 1917–1976: A new measure of fertility

A new measure of fertility—period coefficients in a prediction of the probability of birth by parity and race—for American women during the period 1917–1976 is explained and displayed. The measure estimates the probability that a next birth will be due to annual conditions, net of age, and is specific to race and parity. We controlled effects of age including a parameter based on an explicit theoretical conception about how age and period influences combine. This refined measure promises greater explained variance, more parsimoniously and more realistically, than has been true of earlier analyses of U.S. fertility trends.     

Labor market influences on Women's fertility decisions: Longitudinal evidence from Canada

While fertility theories suggest that insecure labor market experiences encourage women to postpone having children, few have examined whether job insecurity perceptions influence fertility in the North American context—an omission we address in the current study. Findings from event history analyses of a panel dataset of Canadian workers (Canadian Work, Stress and Health Study) reveal that perceived job insecurity is salient for women's first birth decisions but not subsequent births. Further subgroup analyses show that the association between perceived job insecurity and likelihood of a first birth is limited to college-educated women and those in low unemployment labor market regions. Among women with less than a college degree and those in high-unemployment regions, the likelihood of a first birth does not vary by respondents' perceptions of insecurity. Results suggest a more nuanced relationship between insecure work and women's childbearing decisions than predicted by traditional pro-cyclical accounts of the economy-fertility association.     

Population growth and the birth squeeze

Birth squeezes result from an imbalance in the number of males and females in the childbearing ages, and can have a significant impact on the level and distribution of births. To measure the effects of a birth squeeze, the observed male and female age-specific birth rates were distinguished from the underlying fertility magnitudes, which reflect the mutual propensity of males and females of specified ages to have a child. The fertility magnitudes, readily expressible in terms of the birth rates, are nonetheless independent of the age-sex composition of the population, while the birth rates are affected by compositional changes. The two-sex Total Fertility Rate, TFR2, the average of the male and female TFRs, is advanced as a summary measure of fertility independent of the birth squeeze, and a simple index, U, is defined to measure the severity of the squeeze. Analyses involving stable population models, alternative population projections, and the birth squeezes found in contemporary populations documented the importance of the birth squeeze for studies of fertility. In particular, the size of the distortions introduced by the birth squeeze was seen as related to the level of fertility itself. In high-fertility populations, the birth squeeze depresses observed female age-specific birth rates, and thus conventional measures can significantly underestimate the fertility reduction needed to end population growth.     

Unemployment scarring by gender: Human capital depreciation or stigmatization? Longitudinal evidence from the Netherlands, 1980–2000

Using longitudinal data from the Dutch Labor Force Supply Panel (OSA), this article examines how unemployment scarring (i.e., wage setbacks following unemployment) and its underlying mechanisms operate across gender in the Netherlands over the period 1985–2000. A series of fixed effect panel models that correct for unobserved heterogeneity, reveal a notable disparity in unemployment scarring by gender. Interestingly, while unemployment scarring is short-lived and partly conditional upon human capital differences among women, it is strongly persistent among men and contingent upon old age, ethnicity, and tight economic conditions. Our findings provide new evidence regarding unemployment scarring by gender while they support the hypothesis that among women the effects of unemployment scarring are predominantly driven by human capital depreciation, while among men stigma effects dominate.     

住房财富效应与居住模式对适龄人群生育意愿的影响研究

在城市住房价格居高不下与生育率持续走低的背景下,文章通过OLS模型,采用CGSS2018年调查数据和2017年城市房价数据,研究住房财富效应与居住模式对适龄人群生育意愿的影响。结果表明:住房的财富效应对适龄生育人群生育意愿具有正向促进作用;核心家庭相较于主干家庭的生育意愿较低;核心家庭偏向生育女孩,主干家庭偏向生育男孩。通过工具变量法进行检验,结果仍然稳健。建议加大保障性住房供给,重塑主干家庭,鼓励代际同居,以提高适龄人群的生育意愿。     

Unintended fertility and the stability of coresidential relationships

Having an unintended birth is associated with maternal and child health outcomes, the mother-child relationship, and subsequent fertility. Unintended fertility likely also increases the risk of union dissolution for parents, but it is unclear whether this association derives from a causal effect or selection processes and whether it differs by union type. This article uses data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth to compare union stability after intended and unintended births in coresidential relationships. Results show that coresidential couples are more likely to break up after an unintended first or higher-order birth than after an intended first or higher-order birth, even when accounting for stable unobserved characteristics using fixed-effects models. The negative association is stronger for marriages than cohabitations, despite the overall higher dissolution rate of cohabiting unions. We conclude that unintended fertility at any parity is disruptive for coresidential couples in ways that increase the risk of union dissolution.     

Education and fertility decline in China during transitional times: A cohort approach

We examine the effect of education on birth outcomes in China during the period of economic transition and large-scale changes in mass education and population control measures. Retrospective micro data from the 2008 Chinese General Social Survey and discrete time event history analysis are used to examine the fertility history of several cohorts of women born between 1945 and 1968. We observed births at different parities, distinguishing the education effect across cohorts and rural/urban sectors. We found differences across cohorts consistent with unique features of the Chinese context, such as the radical egalitarian era of educational expansion, and the Reform Era. We also found that despite the increase in some education levels across cohorts (e.g., junior high school in rural areas), birth chances were more likely to be concentrated among less educated women, suggesting the impact of factors related to returns to education and hence the desire for children.     

Are white evangelical Protestants lower class? A partial test of church-sect theory

Testing hypotheses derived from church-sect theory and contemporary research about changes in evangelical Protestants’ social status, I use repeated cross-sectional survey data spanning almost four decades to examine changes in the social-class hierarchy of American religious traditions. While there is little change in the social-class position of white evangelical Protestants from the early 1970s to 2010, there is considerable change across birth cohorts. Results from hierarchical age–period–cohort models show: (1) robust, across-cohort declines in social-class differences between white evangelical Protestants and liberal Protestants, affiliates of “other” religions, and the unaffiliated, (2) stability in social-class differences between white evangelical Protestants and moderate, Pentecostal, and nondenominational Protestants, (3) moderate across-cohort growth in social-class differences between white evangelical Protestants and Catholics, and (4) these patterns vary across indicators of social class. The findings in this article provide partial support for church-sect theory as well as other theories of social change that emphasize the pivotal role of generations.     

Separating age,period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920–1970

Four models are developed to describe the odds transformation of period- and age-specific fertility rates as products of age, period, and cohort effects. These are applied to data for white U.S. women age 15–44 from 1920 to 1970, with equal weights given to each rate. All models which include age fit subsets of the data extremely well. Per effect, the incorporation of periods improves the fit much more than the incorporation of cohorts. It is shown that first differences are invariant in two-effect models, and second differences are invariant in the three-effect models.     

Unemployment and men's entrance into female-dominated jobs

Despite the contraction of many male-dominated occupations, men have made limited progress in entering female-dominated jobs. Using monthly employment histories from the SIPP, we examine whether individual economic conditions—such as a period of unemployment—are associated with men subsequently pursuing female-dominated work. Specifically, we ask whether men are more likely to enter female-dominated jobs after unemployment, compared to men who take a new job directly from employment. We find that unemployment significantly increases the odds of men entering female-dominated work among men who make job transitions. By examining changes in occupational prestige as well as wage differences before and after unemployment, we also find that entering a female-dominated job (compared to other job types) may help men mitigate common scarring effects of unemployment such as wage losses and occupational prestige downgrades. Accordingly, this study reveals a critical occupational route that may allow men to remain upwardly mobile after involuntary unemployment.     

The scarring effect of unemployment on psychological well-being across Europe

Past unemployment may have a pervasive psychological impact that occurs across nations. We investigate the association between unemployment events across working life and subsequent psychological well-being across 14 European countries. Additionally, we consider the influence of between-country differences in labour market institutions and conditions on the cross-country well-being effects of unemployment. Data detailing life-long employment trajectories and contemporary life conditions are drawn from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. The well-being impact of unemployment is modeled using linear, multi-level specifications. Each six-month spell of past unemployment is found to predict reduced quality of life and life satisfaction after the age of 50, having adjusted for a broad range of individual and country-specific covariates. In contrast, the impact of past unemployment on depression is explained by individual demographic factors. We identify the first comparative long-term evidence that unemployment welfare scarring may be a broad, international phenomenon.     

论印度失业问题对政治的影响

长期严重失业对印度政治产生了深刻的影响。严重的失业和贫困不仅使底层人民觉醒,用选票决定政党更迭,而且对印度宗教、种姓、族群冲突以及国家分裂倾向产生了巨大的影响。解析印度失业对政治的影响可以为发展中国家在经济发展中对待失业问题提供一种警示。     

劳动力产权性质对失业风险分担机制的影响

劳动力产权形态客观上经历了一个由共有状态向私有状态转化的社会历程 ,其产权性质对转轨经济中劳动力失业风险分担机制的形成具有重要影响。根据失业风险的成因与类型 ,国家与劳动者应分别承担总失业风险中的“系统风险”与“个别风险”部分。中国转轨经济失业社会保障的核心内容 ,就是建立“国家与个人共担、个人为主体”的失业风险分担机制     

关于调整我国现行生育政策的思考

在为什么需要适时调整我国现行生育政策上,应恰如其分地认识它对减缓未来人口老龄化和老年抚养比严重程度、增强未来家庭养老功能、促进未来广大少年儿童身心健康成长和抑制未来出生人口性别比持续升高的作用;在何时调整我国现行生育政策上,从多方面考虑以2015年后较为合适;在如何调整我国现行生育政策上,最好采取"新人新办法,老人老办法"的"双轨制"。     

城乡居民生育意愿差异及其影响因素

意愿生育性别偏好虽然只是人们的一种主观生育意愿,但会对生育行为产生一定的影响。当生育数量不受限制时,人们通过多育来满足性别偏好。当生育数量受到生育政策的约束和限制时,人们往往通过各种技术手段来满足性别偏好。生产力、文化、社会、经济、政策领域等方面因素是城乡居民意愿生育性别偏好差异的形成原因．应从文化、经济、社会、政策层面削弱城乡性别偏好差异。     

Does the unemployment rate affect the divorce rate? An analysis of state data 1960-2005

We analyzed data from 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1960 to 2005 to study how the unemployment rate and the divorce rate are related. Unemployment is positively related to divorce in a bivariate analysis, but the association is not significant when state and year fixed effects are included in the statistical model. When the sample is divided into time periods, unemployment is negatively and significantly associated with divorce after 1980. These findings provide the strongest support for a “cost of divorce” perspective and suggest that a high rate of unemployment decreases the rate of divorce, net of unobserved time-invariant state characteristics and period (year) trends.     

中国和印度生育政策运行机制对比研究

中国和印度是世界上两个人口最多的国家,两国都采取了相应的计划生育政策对本国的人口实施控制,但是成效却大不相同。快速增长的人口将严重制约印度的经济发展,带来诸如粮食、土地、环境、就业等一系列问题。通过对中国和印度两国生育政策运作机制的对比研究,发现两国在政策制定及其实施机制上存在的差异,探究印度计划生育政策失败的主要原因,寻求对人口生育控制的更为有效的政策实施机制。     

Producing adulthood: Adolescent employment, fertility, and the life course

Adolescent employment is typically framed as having either positive or negative effects. Yet cutting edge research yields apparently contradictory results; work lowers delinquency but also increases school dropout. Both opportunity cost and life course development theories could explain these results. This study investigates effects of employment on fertility among adolescent women, which pits life course development against opportunity cost theory. Using 2006 and 2007 American Community Surveys, individual instrumental variable and state-level difference-in-difference models (following the same cohort over time) control for self-selection and find a positive effect of employment on adolescent fertility. National Vital Statistics birth data confirm state-level results. Results for fertility (and some evidence for other early transitions) indicate that youth employment speeds the transition to adulthood, supporting life course theory. Findings suggest adolescent employment should be reconceived as promoting adult rather than positive or negative behavior.     

充分就业状态及其发展陷阱

人力资源配置效率高低的根本标志就是就业或失业程度,国际主流经济学把充分就业定义为消灭了非自愿失业的就业状态。市场供求规律调节和市场经济所特有的人口规律发挥作用的必然结果,就是供过于求的劳动力作为失业人口而存在,这是一切市场经济的常态。失业人口流动是市场经济高效率运行的根本原因所在。充分就业作为当今世界各国普遍追求的最优发展状态,归根结底是有利于人的发展的。入世后并正处在社会转型期的现代中国,仍然存在传统非效率就业的巨大路径依赖性,因此应尽快走出"充分就业陷阱"。     

试析隐性失业农村劳动力的转移与分流

农村劳动力的隐性失业问题在全国具有广泛的普遍性,对经济发展、社会稳定与和谐社会的构建已经形成制约和障碍,积极促进和帮助农村隐性失业劳动力的转移、分流、分化进而实现其充分就业对缩小地区差距、城乡差距和构建和谐社会具有举足轻重的作用.促进隐性失业农村劳动力的转移、分流与分化,应该积极推进制度变迁,深化农用地改革,正确选用农业技术,发展劳动密集型产业,提高人力资本量,改善人力资本约束,十个指头弹琴,多渠道分而化之.