Women,Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy

Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables’ influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics—namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables—female-related predictors, in particular—have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.     

The Demography of Future Global Population Aging: Indicators,Uncertainty, and Educational Composition

This is an expanded version of comments on the future of the demography of aging at an invited session of the 2008 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. In an introduction, John Haaga offers reasons for a revival of interest in population aging, including greater realization of plasticity in aging trajectories at both individual and societal levels. Linda Martin proposes that population scientists working in aging emulate those studying fertility and family planning in previous decades, learning from interventions (in this case, aimed at increasing retirement savings and reducing disability at older ages). Changes in family structure will increasingly affect new cohorts of the elderly, and Linda Waite speculates on the ways in which changes in the economy, medicine, and the legal environment could affect the social context for aging. Research on mortality at older ages is “alive and well” asserts James Vaupel, who sets out six large questions on mortality trends and differentials over time and across species. Lastly, Wolfgang Lutz expands the scope of projections, showing the considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of population aging in the developing world and the effects on future elderly of the increases in educational attainment in much of the world during the second half of the twentieth century.     

Advancing Methodological Knowledge Within State and Local Demography: a Case Study

Much of the academic literature dealing with state and local demography involves the development and evaluation of methods for estimating population. The focus on estimation methods is not surprising because they are used in many states to allocate resources. The quality control in regard to the validity and reliability afforded these methods by the traditional academic peer review process is important because, among other things, it serves to reduce the high potential for conflict that exists when resources are at stake. There are, however, methods being used by state and local demographers that have not been subject to peer review. While not necessarily unsound, these fugitive methods serve to keep the potential for conflict high because of the uncertainty regarding their validity and reliability. This paper examines just such a situation in the form of a case study. It is a discussion of a regression model developed in Nevada following the 2000 census that led to conflict over its use to estimate the population of Clark County, Nevada in 2002. The discussion reveals statistical and methodological shortcomings in this model that lead to an alternative model not subject to these shortcomings. This example illustrates how this type of analysis and discussion can lead to a wider understanding of methods on the part of practitioners through the corrective process of academic peer review. It also suggests that states in which estimates are used to allocate resources would be well-served by subjecting new methods being considered for use to academic peer review before they are adopted.     

Case study: fertility decline in Iran

Iran has experienced one of the most successful family planning programs in the developing world, with 64 percent decline in total fertility rate (TFR) between 1986 and 2000. This paper focuses on Iranians’ unique experience with implementation of a national family planning program. Recognition of sensitive moral and ethical aspects of population issues resulted in successful collaboration of technical experts and religious leaders. Involvement of local health workers, women health volunteers and rural midwives led to great community participation. Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in 2000 indicated a TFR of 2.0 births per women and 74 percent contraceptive use among married women. This case study will help policy makers and researchers in Moslem countries and other developing countries with high fertility rate to consider a successful family program as a realistic concept with positive impacts on nation’s health and human development.     

基于人口指标的群体人力资本核算理论与实证

作者以人口规模、平均受教育年限、平均工作年限和平均预期存活年限为基础指标,设计了群体人力资本核算指标体系和方法,并对改革开放以来山东省在业人口的群体人力资本积累进行了实证分析。结果显示,1978-2003年山东省在业人口的群体人力资本增长了60%。其中教育的贡献份额为51.4%,人口规模的贡献份额为46.9%,经验的贡献份额为2.0%,而健康的贡献份额为-0.3%。     

Assessing the Need for a New Medical School: A Case Study in Applied Demography

This case study illustrates how applied demographers operate in a politically charged context of competing interests—here, justifying the decision to locate a new public medical school in one medically underserved region rather than another. We show how to use demographic and other data to gauge the magnitude of future demand for physicians; formulate demographic assumptions about the future to serve decisionmakers’ needs; and frame information to help improve decision making through objective analysis. We detail the steps in projecting future physicians per capita using a method based on the economic concept of physician demand rather than the social concept of need. Our method is computationally simple, intuitive, and easily understood by policymakers. Our case study offers applied demographers a practical approach to physician workforce planning and can be used as an instructional exercise for students, assigned to replicate these projections elsewhere and distill their implications.     

Demography and COVID-19: risks,responses and impacts

Journal of Population Research -     

Demography and the environment

Demographers' interest in the environment has generally been enmeshed in broader issues of population growth and economic development. Empirical research by demographers on environmental issues other than natural-resource constraints is limited. In this paper, I briefly review past demographic thinking about population and the environment and suggest reasons for the limited scope of demographic research in this area. Next, I describe more recent demographic research on the environment and suggest several newer areas for demographic research. Finally, I consider the future of research on the environment in the field of demography.     

Demography,Culture, and Policy: Understanding Japan's Low Fertility

Insights into the causes of Japan's prolonged and sharp fall in total fertility rate come from comparing Japan with France. The two countries share dirigiste administrative approaches, family policy reform undertaken under the auspices of pragmatic right wing parties and justified on pronatalist grounds, and involvement of demographic experts in crafting and shepherding such policies. But the countries differ with respect to their total fertility rates (France 1.98, Japan 1.29) and the effectiveness of their family policies. Thus comparing them can help identify areas of divergence that might explain these differences and assist in the project of theory building. Several salient explanations are rooted in Japan's labor market: it exacts high opportunity costs from parents who interrupt their careers to raise children, keeps ideal workers from having much time for their families, assumes and reinforces a traditional gender ideology, and hires few young workers into good jobs.     

人口、文化与政策：解读日本的低生育率

通过对日法两国生育状况进行对比（法国1．98,日本1．29）,挖掘日本总和生育率急剧下降的原因。两国都采取了政府干预的行政手段以及在实用主义的右翼政党支持下进行家庭政策改革,以期提高人口出生率,但是两国家庭政策的作用效果却不尽相同。一种可能的解释是植根于日本劳动力市场的文化：它使得年轻夫妇若中断他们的职业生涯来抚养孩子需要付出高额的机会成本：使得理想的雇员无法拥有太多的时间来安排家庭生活：同时假设并强化了一种传统的社会性别意识,将女性推向非正规劳动力就业市场,迫使她们只能在“正规工作”与“生养孩子”之间做出取舍。这也是越来越多的日本年轻人宁可选择单身并推迟结婚,也不愿轻易结婚生子的重要原因。     

Historical Demography: Achievements and Prospects

Historical demography as a separate discipline came into existence when family reconstruction was first developed for the analysis of a pre-transition population. This paper assesses the significant achievements made in this field of population studies since then. Attention is also paid to equally significant findings obtained from aggregative analysis based on back projection, and to a large body of research results for the period of the demographic transition. In the last part of the paper, new research directions are discussed. Data issues as well as methodological ones are raised. Special attention is given to newly emerging Asian historical demography where different source materials require different methods and techniques, which in turn are expected to broaden the scope of the so far disproportionality fertility-oriented field. Finally, discussions are extended to economic, cultural and institutional aspects of the subject, with a plea not to isolate demographic analysis from other branches of historical research.     

Demography and the new economy

The term ‘New Economy’ is used to refer to two distinct developments. The first is the increasing importance of pure services, particularly those related to information, and the corresponding decline in the importance of the goods-producing sector. The second is the liberalization of product and labour markets and the resulting decline of institutions like lifetime full employment. This development has been particularly evident in Australia and other English-speaking countries. Although there are connections between these two developments, their demographic implications are quite different. An information-based economy implies long periods of education, late childbearing and a reversal of the trend towards early retirement. Labour market liberalization implies extensive use of redundancy as a tool for labour force flexibility and an accentuation of the trend for workers over 50 to withdraw from the labour market. This trend has been sustainable so far because the baby boom has resulted in an increase in the proportion of the population aged 25 to 54. Within the next decade, this proportion will start to decline. If current institutions are maintained, an economic «ageing crisis» will arrive at least a decade earlier than would be suggested by an examination of traditional dependency ratios.     

Evaluating Quality of Life in Urban Areas (Case Study: Noorabad City, Iran)

Quality of urban life (QOUL) has become an important field within urban studies. The increased level of attention to this topic is due to the increasing importance of QoL studies in monitoring public policies and in the role they can play as effective tools in urban management and planning. The main objective of this study is to measure the QOUL in the town of Noorabad in Iran, using subjective and objective indicators. In addition to secondary datasets, this study relies on a perception survey of households in the selected city. Based on an 11-point Likert scale, the mean of the overall life satisfaction of the respondents was found to be 6.06. At the same time, it has been found that satisfaction from employment opportunities is lowest among all other indicators. The comparison between the subjective and objective QoL in Noorabad indicated that 25 % of the households are in a state of well-being, 30.1 % are in a state of deprivation, while 24.4 % are in dissonance and 20.4 % are in a state of adaptation. Although correlation between objective and subjective dimensions of the QoL has not been found to be high, in general, the findings of this study reveal the importance of simultaneous studying of both objective and subjective dimensions of QoL. Results and findings of this study will be useful in designing and implementing future policies in the town of Noorabad.