Technology and society in the last quarter of the twentieth century

Critical times are approaching for technology and society. It will be a race between improving technology and worsening labour relations at a time when the depletion of natural resources will make itself felt. Unless far-sighted governments prepare in time for a gradual change, free enterprise and democracy will be in serious danger.     

Human Capital,Trade Openness and Growth in Argentina in the 20th Century

We estimate a production function that accounts for the economic performance of the country in the 20th century. We elaborate long term time series whereas most of the recent empirical studies on growth are based on cross section analysis. This approach allows us to follow the various regime changes that can be identified in the rich economic history of Argentina. To evaluate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) we initially test the classical Solow Model. We estimate the speed of convergence of TFP and obtain a non convergence result. This speed of convergence has declined since the 1930s, and we find a phenomenon of divergence in the period 1970–90. We then analyse the impact on production of additional variables recently highlighted in the endogenous growth literature such as the process of catch up of foreign technical progress, human capital and trade openness. Chow tests for this extended production function give us a strong probability of changes in the growth regimes. The estimation, that takes into consideration the break points identified, shows that the impact of trade openness and foreign technology is not stable throughout the century. In what concerns the impact of education on economic growth, we find a strong effect of primary education on growth, and a weaker effect of secondary-university education.     

Chronology of the last six recessions

How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans of businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of economic recessions that have been made over the last 20 years and evaluate the extent to which forecasters have been successful in their predictions. The approach used was to look closely at published forecasts in major business journals or specialized forecasting newsletters. The conclusion of the paper is that forecasters have been somewhat unsuccessful in their efforts to correctly predict the timing and depth of recessions. The implications of such a conclusion are that planners should not pursue the illusion that recessions can be accurately predicted and, instead, they should accept reality and shift the emphasis from attempting to forecast recessions to effectively monitoring the present state of the economy.     

Planning,information technology and the post-industrial society

In the course of attending exhibitions and conferences dealing with online systems and data bases and software packages, the author has collected information on the new technology of interest to the planner. He finds that in some cases design systems are being developed with no clear idea of planners' needs or of the planning function. He believes that it is necessary to establish a dialogue with the systems designer and information scientist to ensure that they are informed about the planning process, as otherwise the current breed of planners, and planning organizations, could be made obsolete and a new planner, au fait with the developing software, would take over the role.     

The role of business in society

This is one of a series of articles dealing with social and political issues relevant to business. It is intended to present some of the dilemmas which face top management in setting objectives and policies for the business. A number of key issues are isolated, matching economic objectives and social responsibilities, defining the rôle of the huge multi-national company, reconciling the different aims of owners, managers, and employees, etc. Finally the authors pose the problem: how should the modern corporation be controlled to ensure that it operates in the interests of the community at large, as well as the shareholders?     

基于熵权法的科学技术评价模型及其实证研究

以“坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续”的科学发展观内涵为指导思想,通过科技指标的海选、筛选和理性分析构建了科技综合评价指标体系。用熵权法客观地对评价指标进行赋权,建立了基于熵权法的中国“十五”期间的科学技术发展状况评价模型,并给出了“十一五”期间科技发展政策建议。研究特色有五：①根据国际关注、又好又快、可持续发展和以人为本的原则建立指标体系,使科学技术的评价反映科学发展观的要求;②通过熵权法客观地确定指标权重,避免了人为主观确定权重的随意性;③利用熵权法确定的熵值,确保了仅用24个指标反映了95．5％以上的原始信息;④通过对影响科学技术整体效果的准则层进行评价,有助于找出科技发展各环节存在的问题;⑤通过对中国“十五”期间科技发展中的主要问题的分析,给出了“十一五”期间中国科技发展的政策建议。     

House of commons papers of the eighteenth century

The paper describes the existing lists and collections of the papers printed for the British House of Commons in the eighteenth century. It explains the principles upon which the new list accompanying the Scholarly Resources reprint edition of the papers is compiled and numbered and discusses the extent and nature of the losses of ephemera shown by the author's new listing of the papers.     

Emerging organizational forms: Work and organization in the 21st century

This article begins with the premise that there is continuous and accelerating change in the Western World in the nature of work and how it is organized. An important contributory force is information technology — itself changing rapidly.When the dynamics of the external environment of organizations are added to changes in IT, we will see new forms of organizations evolving in the business world, such as the ‘starburst’ and ‘internal market’ structures.Michael Scott Morton supplies a diagram to illustrate the framework of research which the ‘1990s’ program at MIT is following — how to balance the dynamic tension between external forces and the internal dimensions of organizations to reward shareholders adequately. He refers to one of Peter Senge's ideas in The Fifth Dimension which is central in creating an organization which learns how to innovate constantly: System Thinking — the search for systemic patterns. It reinforces Scott Morton's argument, and seems a particularly appropriate discipline in a continuously turbulent business environment.     

The programmable society and the individual as a unit of data

The authors commence this paper with discussion of an extract from H.G. Wells' novel of 1920. They use this extract to remind the reader that social innovation is not a new problem and that imaginative writers may be a source of guidance on such matters. Specifically they deal with the social options created by ‘computer-driven’ information systems. They argue that this aspect of the problem of science and people is one which has a great and seriously under-estimated potential to influence the quality of life in a future society.     

Is the work society running out of work?

The growth of unemployment and underemployment in a society devoted to the work ethic creates a growing pressure for more work to be provided within a pre-existing social and economic framework. Growth of services and small businesses are unlikely to be sufficient. The public sector is widely used as a source of artificial and therefore unsatisfying work. The contrasting growth of the ‘black economy’ despite an official framework of wage rates and law suggests that work-creating forces are still strong. Relaxation of that framework and the breaking down of other rigidities in education, in attitudes to working times and to voluntary service are essential if the need to work is to be satisfied in our changing environment.     

The view from the crossroads: Brazilian culture and corporate leadership in the twenty-first century

The transfer of western leadership theories and practices across the globe has inspired criticism in recent years, suggesting the need for local/indigenous theories of leadership. Such search, however, is troublesome in countries with a heterogeneous cultural background where the constant influence of outside cultural/social/economic parameters abound. The purpose of this article is to identify local/indigenous practices of leadership in one country with a heterogeneous cultural background – Brazil. In this conceptual article, we explore selected literature to investigate the topic of Brazilian culture and its particular style of corporate leadership.