A re-evaluation of alternate methodologies in legislative voting analysis

This paper consists of a comparison of Guttman scale analysis and factor analysis as applied to legislative roll-call votes. After defining each technique, their respective shortcomings are discussed. Guttman scaling has intuitive appeal, but lacks the precision of measurement and ability to produce interval level legislator scales that factor analysis provides. Factor analysis is frequently criticized, however, because it cannot generate factors that resemble Guttman scales in composition. By reconsidering the basis for each technique, two points apparently overlooked by researchers are established. Firstly, although the techniques produce different results, both kinds are meaningful in their own right. Secondly, the techniques are not just different; they are interrelated in a definable manner. This interrelationship is developed by means of a principal components analysis of artificial roll-calls forming a perfect Guttman scale. The results are then used to establish probable interpretations of the principal components of a scalable set of roll-calls. The implication is that the precision of factor analysis need not be sacrificed even if the scaling criterion is preferred by the analyst.     

需要的价值论分析与需要价值论批判

传统的需要价值论以需要作为价值的前提和基础,这是存在着疑义的。一方面,需要本身的意义需要澄清,表现形态需要明确;另一方面,“客体对主体需要的满足即是价值”的定义也值得探讨和商榷。真正的价值,决不是简单的对需要的满足就可以定义的,它需要深入人的生活才能得到更为恰当的表述。     

基于监督博弈的证券监管成本效益分析

寻租行为直接导致了证券监管的失灵 ,本文运用博弈论中“监督博弈”命题 ,来探讨监管者自身行为的成本和效益。并以亿安科技为案例对命题进行了实证研究。     

政府决策的公民参与成本分析

公民参与需要付出成本,而成本支出则成为影响或限制政府行为和公民行为的一个重要原因。根据不同分类标准,公民参与成本的主要构成有多种划分。公民参与成本划分以及不同的参与成本对政府行为和公民行为均存在影响。这包括公民支出成本对公民行政的影响,公民支出成本对政府行为的影响,政府支出成本对公民行为的影响和政府支出成本对政府行为的影响。     

The significance of roll calls in voting bodies: A model and statistical estimation

In the long history of legislative roll call analyses, there continues to exist a particularly troubling problem: There is no satisfactory method for measuring the relative importance or significance of individual roll calls. A measure of roll call significance would be intersting in and of itself, but many have realized that it could also substantially improve empirical research. The consequence of this situation is that hundreds of researchers risk heteroskedastic disturbances (resulting in inefficient estimates and biased standard errors and test statistics), are unable to appropriately choose the roll calls most suited to their theory (resulting in analyses that may not correctly test their theory), and often use methods that create more problems than they solve (resulting in selection bias, unrealistic weighting schemes, or relatively subjective measures). This article introduces a new method designed to meet these problems. Based on an application of Box-Tiao intervention analysis, the method extracts from observed voting participation scores the “revealed preferences” of legislators as a measure of roll call significance. Applying this method to roll calls from the U.S. Senate demonstrates the success of the method and suggests its utility in applied research.     

引入品牌的需求曲线及其经济学分析

引入品牌后,品牌信用度的提高使得需求曲线发生变化,一方面,在其他条件不变的情况下,品牌信用度的提高将有效地降低消费者的选择成本,消费者“趋利避害”的本性使得在任意价格下需求量增加,需求曲线右移;另一方面,品牌信用度的提高使得品牌商品的需求弹性变小,需求曲线变陡峭。在此基础上,品牌信用度的提高通过改变需求曲线的位置,将使得均衡价格提高,且均衡数量增加,同时,将会增加消费者剩余和生产者剩余,提高社会福利水平。我们的分析也为企业摆脱“价格战”陷阱提供一个可行的思路,即通过品牌建设提高品牌信用度,使得在价格提高的条件下,需求数量增加。而只有使需求曲线改变位置方能做到该点。     

Income inequality and participation: A comparison of 24 European countries

Previous research suggests that when there is a high level of inequality, there is a low rate of participation. Two arguments are generally offered: First, inequality depresses participation because people from different status groups have fewer opportunities to share common goals. Second, people may participate more in civic and social life when they have more resources. However, until now, these explanations have not been separated empirically. Using EU-SILC data for 24 European countries, we analyze how income inequality is related to civic and social participation. Our results indicate that the main effects of inequality manifest via resources at the individual and societal level. However, independent of these resources, higher inequality is associated with lower civic participation. Furthermore, inequality magnifies the relationship between income and participation. This finding is in line with the view that inter-individual processes explain why inequality diminishes participation.     

Coincidence probabilities for simple majority and positional voting rules

With three candidates and an odd number n of voters, let Q(n, λ, p) be the probability that the winning candidate under the point-total rule that assigns 1, λ, and 0 points respectively to each first, second, and third-place vote is the same as the simple majority candidate, given that there exists a simple majority candidate, when each voter independently selects a linear preference order on the candidates by a common probability distribution p on the six linear orders on the candidates. With Q(n, λ) = Q(n, λ, p) when p assigns probability $\text{1}\text{6}$ to each order, the λ values that maximize Q(n, λ) for small n consist of open intervals in [0, $\text{1}\text{2}$]. Using quadrivariate normals, a computational form is developed for the limiting probability Q(λ) = lim_n→∞Q(n, λ). The function Q(λ) = Q(1 ? λ) for each λ ? [0, 1] and is differentiable with Q(λ) strictly increasing as λ goes from 0 to $\text{1}\text{2}$. The maximum value $\text{Q(}\text{1}\text{2}\text{)}$ is approximately. 901189. Effects of nonuniform p distributions on Q(n, λ, p) are also discussed.     

多元主体参与大学生群体性事件治理的路径分析

当今,由于复杂多变的国际环境和逐步进入"深水区"的改革等因素的影响,大学生群体性事件正逐年上升,严重影响了国家的安全和社会的稳定,这不能不引起我们的高度警惕。通过多元主体参与治理的视角来研究大学生群体性事件的防控,分析了多元主体参与治理大学生群体性事件的意义,并提出了行之有效的路径,以期为大学生群体性事件的防控提供一定的帮助。     

产业融合:基于消费需求升级的视角分析

信息通讯技术的广泛运用一方面改变和提升了产品和服务供给方的生产效率,使产业融合成为可能,并通过企业间的紧密协作促进产业融合;另一方面也赋予了消费者权力向厂商提出更高的要求。一整套解决方案要求厂商跨越企业甚至产业边界整合产品和服务;消费者对速度的要求使得厂商不得不将时间视为重要的战略武器,展开以时间为基础的竞争和紧密协作。这些来自需求方的巨大推动力,推动着企业和产业不断打破原来的边界,快速响应消费需求,在世界范围内配置最优资源,形成产业融合。     

经济回暖扩大内需不能松劲

当前我国宏观经济呈现回暖趋向,但有效需求不足仍是经济运行中的主要矛盾。能否解决好这个矛盾,关系到经济发展的全局。把扩大内需作为经济发展的基本立足点,既是缓解当前有效需求不足的重要举措,也是促进国民经济持续、快速、健康发展的战略抉择。扩大内需包括扩大投资需求和扩大消费需求。在我国经济发展现阶段,无论投资需求还是消费需求,都具有很大的扩张余地和增长潜力,足以支撑国民经济保持稳定增长的良好局面。     

民主与政治参与

一般认为政治参与是民主发展的标准和尺度。文章从民主与政治参与的关系入手,主要探讨现代民主制度下政治参与存在的局限和不足之处,特别以最近一二十年世界范围发生的巨大变化为背景,说明有关民主与政治参与方面比较容易引起误解的问题。     

政治参与与政治稳定

政治现代化的过程,既是政治民主化的过程,也是政治参与不断扩大的过程。在通常情况下,政治参与对政治稳定具有积极的作用,但政治参与与政治稳定之间并不存在完全的正相关关系,有时政治参与也会导致政治不稳定。因此,在我国推进现代化建设的过程中,如何既能够不断提高政治参与的水平,发展社会主义民主政治,又能够维护社会政治稳定,为社会现代化发展提供良好的政治环境已成为一项十分紧迫的课题。     

基于ESP课程需求分析理论对媒体类院校应用的思考

基于ESP课程需求分析的理论基础是对ESP的需求分析,前提是对需求的调查;即通过对ESP课程需求进行调查,而后针对于用人单位的对媒体类院校学生的需求有针对性地进行课程设计。基于媒体类院校用人单位对学生专业英语的需求角度来进行调查,并对调查问卷进行分析,进而提出一些可满足用人单位需求的ESP课程设置和开展,为以后高校开展ESP课程提供一定的研究方向。     

实物期权定价:复制误差和复制成本替代权衡的定性分析

实物期权定价过程中复制误差和复制成本及两者之间的权衡是实物期权乃至金融市场研究的前沿领域。本文给出了一个对此问题的定性分析,结论是实物期权定价的复制成本和复制误差替代权衡,意味着在交易成本的约束条件下,实物期权的价格均衡点不是唯一的,而是多个的。     

妇女参加生产劳动与太平天国妇女解放问题之辨析

近年来,在讨论太平天国不是一场妇女解放运动时,对妇女参加生产劳动作为妇女解放的一个重要论据的传统观点还未引起充分重视和认真讨论,笔者以马列主义为指导,认为妇女广泛参加生产劳动是出于战争之客观需要;是广西妇女劳动传统在天国中的一种自然延续;太平天国还存在大量妇女“家内劳动”;妇女参加社会生产劳动还仅仅是作为一种劳动工具,是“国家奴隶”的一种表现,不具有任何妇女解放的色彩.     

大学生参与社会实践活动意愿实证分析与提升路径

参与社会实践活动对大学生成长成才具有重要现实意义和成效,然而当前社会实践活动大学生的参与率相对较低。在对福建省四所高校大学生参与社会时间活动意愿问卷调查的基础上,就影响大学生参与社会实践意愿的因素进行了实证分析,认为是否为学生干部、是否熟悉参与方式及家人是否支持正是影响大学生参与社会实践的三大要素。相应地,在实际工作中,加强宣传协同优化社会实践环境、改变学生家长教育观念争取支持、创新形式多元筹集经费支持等举措,实为拓宽大学生社会实践参与路径之关健。     

Imagining class: A study into material social class position,subjective identification,and voting behavior across Europe

The traditional approach to class voting has largely ignored the question whether material class positions coincide with subjective class identification. Following Sosnaud et al. (2013), this study evaluates party preferences when Europeans’ material and subjective social class do not coincide. Seminal studies on voting behavior have suggested that members of lower classes are more likely to vote for the economic left and cultural right and that higher classes demonstrate the opposite pattern. Yet, these studies have on the one hand overlooked the possibility that there is a mismatch between the material class people can be classified in and the class they think they are part of, and on the other hand the consequences of this discordant class identification on voting behavior. Analyzing the 2009 wave of the European Elections Study, we find that the majority of the Europeans discordantly identify with the middle class, whereas only a minority of the lower and higher classes concordantly identify with their material social class. Further, material class only seems to predict economic voting behavior when it coincides with subjective class; for instance, individuals who have an inflated class identification are more likely to vote for the economic left, even when they materially can be classified as middle or high class. We conclude this paper with a discussion on scholarly debates concerning class and politics.     

Class locations,consumption locations,and the geography of voting in England

Much ecological analysis of voting patterns in England has been concerned to show (a) the importance of occupational class as a determinant of electoral behavior, and (b) that deviations from a predicted pattern based on class variables are consistent with the neighborhood effect hypothesis. Recently, Dunleavy has criticized both these orientations, replacing them with the concept of consumption locations. The present paper shows, using a new procedure to estimate voting at the constituency level, that there still remain spatial variations to be accounted for.     

论城市规划中的公众参与

随着城市规划从技术手段到公共政策的性质转变,实践中封闭的规划编制程序逐渐成为许多城市规划问题的源头。通过对公众参与功能和外国公众参与实践的分析,我国应增加公众参与的操作性规定,发挥社区组织和居民团体的作用,构建一个开放、透明、包容、公平的公众参与城市规划程序。