关于人力资本价值及其有效实现的研究

人力资本是一种物化于人力资源所有者身上的长期消费资本.人力资本价值的形成过程就是教育等投资和接受这些投资所放弃的机会收入等价值在劳动者身上凝结的过程.有效实现人力资本价值应着重考虑建立以人力资本为核心的个人所有制,协调人力资本与其他产权主体的利益关系,建立以产权激励、机会激励为核心的激励机制等方面问题.     

The volatility of the socially optimal level of investment

In this paper, an annual series for the socially optimal level of investment from 1960–1961 to 1993–1994 for Australia is derived from a vintage production function and compared to the actual series for investment over the same period. The vintage production function can be expected to yield a smoother socially optimal investment series than that derived from a nonvintage, homogenous capital production function. Even so, the resulting series for socially optimal investment is much more volatile than the series for actual investment. Several alternative assumptions are tried in an attempt to further smooth the socially optimal investment series. These include smoothing the assumed values of the exogenous variables, modelling adjustment costs and delivery lags, and changing the form of the production function. While these approaches do succeed in smoothing the investment series, in order for the socially optimal investment series to be as smooth as the actual series the assumed values of the parameters must be quite unrealistic. In the conclusion, we suggest that, in the future research on the socially optimal level of investment, the role of liquidity constraints and of irreversible investment should be investigated.     

Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test

This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between savings and economic growth in South Africa during the period 1950–2005. The study was motivated by the low and declining savings rate currently prevailing in South Africa, on the one hand, and the dwindling level of economic growth experienced in the country during the 1990s, on the other. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study incorporates foreign capital inflow as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between savings and economic growth—thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework. Using the cointegration-based error–correction mechanism, the study finds a bi-directional causality between savings and economic growth to prevail in the short run and a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to savings to dominate in the long run. On balance, the study finds growth-led savings to predominate in South Africa. The results also show that foreign capital inflow and savings Granger-cause each other, while economic growth Granger causes foreign capital inflow. The study, therefore, recommends that in the short run, South African policies should be geared towards achieving both higher savings and economic growth in order to boost investors’ confidence and to attract foreign capital inflow. However, in the long run, the country should shift its focus towards achieving higher economic growth, in order to boost the domestic savings and to sustain a steady flow of foreign capital investment.     

Modeling interest rate cycles in India

The present study tries to examine the behaviour of various Indian interest rates such as call money rate, and yields on secondary market securities with maturity periods of 15–91 days, 1-year, 5-years and 10-years. In the first stage, the study investigates the determinants of interest rates and finds that although the interest rates depend on some domestic macroeconomic variables such as yield spread and expected exchange rate, they are mainly affected by the movements of international interest rates, although with some lags. The policy variables such as Bank Rate and Federal Funds Rate did not show any significant impact on any of the interest rates. Further, it was found that the interest rates in the very recent period show some cyclical movements similar to that of the developed countries. Future behaviour of interest rates show that the present cycle of each interest rate would peak at different time points. This expected behaviour in domestic interest rates could be due to the integration of the domestic economy with the international money and financial market. This trend may be same in most of the emerging economies of Asia.     

外资:中国经济发展的加速剂

文章对中国引进外资不同时期的状况和特点作了分析 ,特别指出了改革开放以来外资对我国经济发展起到了举足轻重的作用。分析了引进外资的结构 ,外商直接投资占外资的大部分 ,这对稳定我国金融秩序起到了重大的作     

对外直接投资、利用外资的理论与实践分析

发展中国家的经济发展离不开对外资的利用,中国与拉美国家都经历了这一过程.陷入外资依赖恶性循环的拉美地区出现的"拉美化"现象引人深思,中国虽不会出现"拉美化"现象,但外资对中国经济安全所构成的潜在威胁依然存在.如何在"后危机时代"背景下有效地利用外资,确保复苏后经济的良性发展,是备受人们关注的课题之一.西方对外直接投资理论、利用外资理论,都存在一定的片面性.运用马克思主义学说,从生产关系角度揭示资本流动的本质,正确认识我国在国际分工体系中的地位,对于把外资的利用纳入可控制的范畴、保证国家的经济安全是十分必要的.     

On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy

This study investigates whether the term structure contains useful information about future inflation for Turkey during 1990–2000, a period of high inflation, high budget deficits, and political instability. Constant parameter and time varying parameter models are rejected by the data. The relationship between term structure of interest rates and inflation changes is found to be explained by a time-varying-parameter model with Markov-switching heteroskedastic disturbances. Thus, the term structure of interest rates is limited as a guide for monetary policy in an economy subject to regime changes such as that of Turkey. Stability can be achieved only by reducing inflation through circumscribing substantial government budget deficits and the political instability underlying them.     

The economic costs of US stock mispricing

The USAGE model for the United States is used to quantify economic costs due to stock mispricing, made operational by shocking Tobin's q. The simulations quantify a potentially large impact even in the most favorable environment, where export demand holds up, and, the dollar is pro-cyclical. A two-year investment boom in two sectors increases consumption by a Net Present Value (NPV) amount of nearly one per cent, due to a positive investment externality onto the US terms of trade. If the investment is wasted, however, the consumption loss is nearly one-half of a per cent. A 5-year ‘capital strike’ across the whole economy subsequent to the boom - mimicking financial distress from a burst bubble - shaves around 10 per cent off consumption. Given these significant costs associated with “boom” and “bust” equity markets, we consider some, policy options that might result in greater stability in these markets.     

The determinants of the benchmark interest rates in China

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of the two key benchmark interest rates in China using an array of constrained ordered probit models for quarterly frequency data from 1987 to 2013. Specifically, we estimate the behavioral equation of the People's Bank of China that models its decision-making process for revisions of the benchmark deposit rate and the lending rate. Our findings imply that the PBC's policy decisions are better understood as responses to changes in inflation and money growth, while output gaps and the exchange rate play negligible roles. We also implement in-sample fit analyses and out-of-sample forecast exercises. Our empirical findings show robust and reasonably good performances of our models in understanding dynamics of these benchmark interest rates.     

21世纪中国利用外资的新趋势及政策取向

积极利用外资,促进国内经济增长,是发展中国家经济起飞的首选战略。伴随着工业化不同发展阶段的演进,发展中国家利用外资方式呈现出从接受外援或举借外债,到引进国外直接投资,然后转向引进国际证券投资的变化轨迹。这一演变是生产力社会化发展的必然结果。在经济全球化条件下,引资方式发生新的变化,形成新的特点。中国的引资方式也毫不例外,应当顺应时代潮流,向利用外资证券化方向发展。     

Developments in and prospects for external debt position and burden of developing countries: The case of Korea

The delay of strong economic recovery by industrialized nations, slowed world export growth, and higher interest rates have worsened the financial situation of a number of developing countries which have relied on external borrowings to sustain current account deficits and protect economic development. Recently, well-publicized concerns over the ability to these countries to repay their considerable debt burden have been raised. To shed light on these concerns, the paper focuses on Korea—one of the heavier debt-holding countries. It describes the process through which Korea has acquired its external debt over the past decade, assesses the trends in its debt burden, and presents prospects for the period 1982–1986. Using the Korean experience, the paper shows that the most common indicators used for evaluating foreign debt burden, such as the long-term service ratio, need to be supplemented by other measurements. In a world economy characterized by short-term debts with variable interest rates, the paper suggests that an important tool in analyzing the external debt burden should be the short-term debt burden.     

A model of the Canadian global exchange rate: A test of the 1970s

A review of the literature indicates that no single exchange rate model has been able to track successfully the movements of the Canadian dollar for both the 1970–1976 period and the period thereafter. The purchasing power parity model, irrespective of whether based on relative wholesale prices, unit labor costs, GNP deflators, or export prices performs very poorly; the monetarist models collapse because of their strict adherence to the purchasing power parity and interest rate parity assumptions; the portfolio demand models require a significant adjustment for the post-1976 period. This paper presents a medium-term eclectic model of the global exchange rate of the Canadian dollar and examines a spectrum of broad issues that reflect on the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Canada. These issues are basically related to the interest parity assumption, the role of speculation, and the test of rational expectations. The global exchange rate is defined as the value of the Canadian dollar measured in terms of a unit of basket of currencies comprising currencies of France, West Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the USA. The model belongs to the same genre of balance of payments structural models that explain the exchange rates by balancing demand and supply of foreign currencies. The model simultaneously explains both spot and forward rates, and it has been estimated and tested by using the quarterly data for 1971–1981.     

Internal Drivers and the Specialization Status of Under-developed Countries： Evidence from China＇s High-tech Industry

将增加值率和生产率作为跨国可比的国际分工地位度量指标,引入产品内分工分析框架中,刻画发展中国家产业的国际分工地位受国内技术创新、劳动力投入、资本投入,以及FDI溢出效应等因素的影响机理,并以中国高技术产业和企业的数据进行实证检验,结果表明：国内的技术创新以及物质资本和人力资本等要素的协同性提升,是提高中国高技术产业国际分工地位的关键性内部动力,而FDI溢出效应的作用相对有限。因而中国产业升级的关键,是要挖掘和培育内部动力,而非依赖于FDI的溢出效应。     

构建企业人力资本投资效益指标体系初探

由于人力资本投资除可获得其自身投资报酬外 ,它还具有投资效益的多样性、外部性、间接性、滞后性的特征 ,因此对企业人力资本投资效益用单一的投资效益指标来进行定量描述和综合评价是不可取的。我们要进行系统、客观地描述和评价企业人力资本投资 ,就必须建立一套科学的人力资本投资效益指标体系。     

与祖辈同住:当前中国家庭的三代居住安排与青少年的学业表现

通过分析具有全国代表性的初中学生样本数据，本研究考察了影响当前中国家庭三代共同居住的决定因素、三代居住安排与青少年学业表现之间的关系及其中间机制。首先，家庭社会经济地位较低、母亲在职或单亲家庭的青少年更可能与祖辈同住。其次，代际居住安排会显著影响青少年的学业表现，控制了其他因素之后，三代共同居住（与祖辈同住）家庭的学生的学业表现要优于两代核心家庭的学生。第三，与祖辈同住的效应受到家庭社会经济地位和家庭结构的调节，来自较低阶层或非双亲家庭的学生从与祖辈同住中获益更多。最后，与祖辈同住在一定程度上通过加强亲子间的家庭社会资本这一机制作用于学生的学业表现。本文表明，在现代社会，家庭亲属网络仍然对个体的地位获得或社会流动具有十分重要的作用。     

文化资本与社会地位获得(英文)

文化资本是影响个人教育获得和社会地位获得的重要因素。基于2008年上海市社会结构调查数据,从广义文化资本出发,分别测量父母和子女文化资本对地位获得的作用。研究发现：父母和子女文化资本存量越高,子女受教育年限越长;子女文化资本对地位获得具有显著影响;在控制性别、父亲职业等变量后,文化资本越多,越有可能进入更高阶层;教育、家庭文化氛围和文化投资对地位获得具有持续且稳定的作用;文化资本是社会下层实现向上流动的有效手段。     

Five ways to ration capital: The case of a developing economy

The performances of two programming models and three “simple” investment rules, the benefit-cost ratio, internal rate of return, and present value to constrained cost ratio, are compared in solving a four-year capital rationing problem in a Latin American nation. The properties and advantages of the various approaches are discussed and policy conclusions are drawn. In addition, the effects of including project timing variants and political/ bureaucratic constraints are explored.     

经济增长:内生增长理论与中国人力资本投资

内生增长理论是现代经济增长理论中的一个核心内容.从长期经济增长率所依赖的路径来看,人力资本和技术进步作为经济增长的内生因素,可以弥补因其他要素收益递减而带来经济增长停滞这一局面.技术进步是由人力资本投资所形成的有效机制而演化成增长动力的一种必然结果.中国技术进步贡献度低下的最主要原因,是由于人力资本投入不足(人力资本积累不足)造成的.在国家财政政策干预下,以内生增长为动力,逐步形成有利于经济增长的物质资本投资向人力资本投资转换的机制.     

教育公平实现中弱势群体利益补偿机制的政策分析

“探讨弱势群体的教育利益补偿,促进教育公平”是当前教育政策研究的重要议题,这是基于我国社会现实的强烈吁求、教育公平的理性诉求和公共政府的责任使然。教育政策作为政府对社会全体成员的教育权益进行权威性分配的方案,在教育公平实现过程中扮演着重要角色,已成为教育领域弱势群体利益分配和补偿的主要手段。转变理念,民主决策,合理表达弱势群体的教育利益;明确教育政策补偿的构件,加强弱势群体补偿的针对性;加强教育政策补偿的执行力度,积极促成教育公平的实现,成为教育领域弱势群体利益补偿机制的建构策略。     

Capital markets integration and economic growth in the European Union

This paper argues that a deeper integration of capital markets in the European Union is necessary to support accelerated economic growth. Further integrated equity and bond markets will provide access to capital funding improve the allocation of capital, help mitigate market and systemic risks, and ultimately foster a counter-cyclical, sustained real economy growth. The paper provides evidence that the increases in both total portfolio equity and debt to GDP ratios in the euro area actively contribute to real GDP growth.