Candidate Sex and Congressional Elections

Abstract

In 1992, an unprecedented number of women were elected to Congress. This election seemed to debunk the notion of female disadvantage as female candidates ran better than males. Since 1992, however, female candidates have failed to compete as effectively as men in congressional elections, again raising the specter of a sex bias. In this paper, we examine 365 open seat congressional elections held since 1982 in order to ascertain whether the indicators of female success in the 1980s and early 1990s structured female candidate success and/or failure after 1992. For this study, these indicators include candidate attributes such as financial quality and candidate experience. Our examination indicates that candidate attributes have significantly weakened as predictors of open seat election outcomes, especially in female versus male races. Instead, a strong increase in the correlation of the presidential normal vote and the congressional vote in open seats since 1992 indicates the emergence of elections where candidate attributes are secondary to the partisanship of the district. Female versus male races demonstrate much higher partisan coherence than all-male open seat contests, and Democratic women run about six points behind Republican women when district partisanship is controlled. These factors, combined with the increasingly Democratic distribution of female nominations, mitigate against female gains through open seats after 1992.     

SURPRISE ME IF YOU CAN: THE INFLUENCE OF NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS IN U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

We here evaluate the heterogeneous effects of newspaper endorsements of U.S. Presidential candidates in the 100 days preceding the 2008 and 2012 elections on the probability that they win the election. Our identification strategy relies on daily variations in the winning probabilities (obtained from the Intrade prediction market) and the fact that newspapers decide their endorsements weeks before their announcement. Endorsements that are classified as surprising and consistent have the largest effect. An endorsement is surprising when the newspaper has not traditionally endorsed the candidate's party. An endorsement is inconsistent when the newspaper leans ideologically to one party but endorses a candidate from another party. (JEL L82, D7)     

Candidate emergence as movement mobilization: An analysis of Women's post-2016 electoral engagement

Political science scholarship argues that women's underrepresentation in American politics stems from a persistent shortage of female candidates. Women are less likely to run because they often perceive individual and structural obstacles that negatively impact their electoral interest. Such barriers remain intact, yet thousands of women have signaled their interest in running for office since the 2016 election by participating in candidate training programs (CTPs). Though running for office is not commonly defined as an activist activity, this article argues that theories of collective action and movement mobilization, rather than those focusing on the psychological aspects of candidate emergence, are better equipped to explain the recent increase of electoral interest. Using EMILY's List—an elite political entity that began as a grassroots social movement organization—as a case, this article integrates scholarship from sociology and political science to examine how feminist activist organizing can impact women's interest in running for public office. I first review the research on women's candidate emergence and CTPs before discussing the electoral movement strategies and the mobilizing impact of the media and collective action frames. The article reviews recent scholarship on the Women's March and the Resistance, then synthesizes the literature to examine EMILY's List and their electoral movement strategies leading up to the 2018 midterm elections. I conclude by suggesting avenues for future research that can bridge the relationship between movements and electoral politics and advance scholarly understanding of how, when, and why women run for office.     

Adolescents' Willingness to Vote for a Woman for President:

During the past two decades there has been an increase in the number of women who campaign for and attain political office. This clearly has the potential to influence attitudes toward women in politics. In particular, it has the potential to influence the attitudes of adolescents, who, according to socialization theory, are especially affected by role models. In this study we used a quasiexperimental design to examine adolescents' attitudes toward female political candidates. We found that the junior and senior high school students we surveyed did not, as a group, use candidate sex as a voting cue. However, females were more willing than males and blacks were more willing than whites to vote for the female candidate.     

Der mediale Attraktivitätsbonus

The study analyses the coverage of six regional newspapers on 25 local candidates during the last six weeks of the 2005 German national election by using quantitative content analysis. In an earlier study the physical attractiveness of the 25 candidates has been examined. The study shows that newspapers covered physically attractive candidates much more often and much more positive than unattractive candidates. This held also true when other relevant candidate characteristics (party membership, role as incumbent or challenger etc.) are controlled. The results show that journalists are victims of the same attractiveness stereotypes as other people. But in the case of journalists there may occur more impotent consequences the amount and tone of media coverage on political candidates may affect the results of election campaigns. Causes and consequences of these findings are discussed.     

Religion as a Chronically Accessible Construct

Recent studies have examined religion in the context of a chronically accessible construct, one that colors how people attend to and recall information. A national survey is used to test whether religiosity and sharing the religious affiliation with a candidate is associated with more accuracy about that candidate's religion. In addition, the role of attention to the news media is examined in combination with religion. Although attention to the news is associated with more knowledge, it does not interact with religion. Overall religious variables are moderately associated with more accuracy about religion questions than nonreligion questions about political candidates.     

Disadvantaged through discrimination? The role of employers in social stratification1

Sociologists have consistently demonstrated that a rather strong association exists between an individual's social class origin and their social class destination, even after controlling for educational attainment. One explanation for this persisting association which is rarely addressed in research in social stratification and mobility is the extent to which class inequalities in access to advantaged class positions are due to discrimination by employers. I set up a field experiment to test whether employers discriminate on the basis of class origin characteristics. I sent letters of job application for professional and managerial occupations to 2560 large UK companies, so as to compare the prospects of equally matched potential employees differing on a range of characteristics, some related to class of origin. The six treatment conditions in the experiment were: the name of the candidate, the type of school attended, the candidate's interests outside work, their sex, the university that they attended and their achieved degree class. Results suggest that employers do pay attention to the class origin characteristics tested here, and that candidates with a name, school type and interests associated with the social elite are more likely to receive a reply to their application than candidates with the equivalent non‐elite characteristics. However, the treatment conditions do not, on the whole, have significant effects on the employers' responses in and of themselves. Instead, employers appear to favour particular combinations of characteristics while penalising others.     

Gender and Black Presidential Politics: From Chisholm to Moseley Braun

SUMMARY

Carol Moseley Braun's entrance into the 2003 Democratic presidential primaries brought Representative Shirley Chisholm's 1972 presidential run back into the spotlight. Numerous questions of interest immediately come to mind. Has the political environment for Black females interested in the presidency changed? Is a Black female candidate running nationally today in a better position than thirty years ago? Did Black Americans see a Black female as a serious contender in 2003 where they did not in 1972? Were Blacks more inclined to support a Black male in the race, Al Sharpton, regardless of the qualifications of Moseley Braun? While data are limited, this article attempts to address these questions and to draw some conclusions, albeit cautiously, about the current political environment for Black female candidates.     

Policy convergence under approval and plurality voting: the role of policy commitment

Proponents of Approval Voting argue that this electoral rule leads to more centrist outcomes compared to Plurality Voting. This claim has been substantiated by scholarly work using spatial models of political competition. We revisit this issue in the context of a model of political competition in which (1) candidates are policy-motivated; (2) candidacy decisions are endogenous; and (3) candidates can credibly commit to implementing any policy. Under these assumptions we find the opposite to be true – Plurality Voting yields convergence to the median voter’s ideal policy but Approval Voting may not. We argue that this result is driven by the differential incentives for candidate entry under the two voting rules. Our results suggest that whether Approval Voting yields more centrist outcomes vis-á-vis Plurality Voting depends on the possibility of policy commitment on the part of the candidates. In an election held under PV each citizen is given one vote he can cast for one (and only one) candidate, and the candidate who gets the most votes wins the election.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF RELATIVE POLITICAL CAMPAIGN EXPENDITURES

This paper develops and tests a model of relative political campaign spending in an election formulated within a capital theory framework. Probability of election is treated as a function of the relative political capital stocks of the candidates, and campaign expenditure is viewed as the mechanism by which candidates optimally adjust their political capital stocks. If contributors are risk-neutral, then all factors that increase a candidate's initial political capital stock tend to decrease his relative campaign expenditures, while all factors that increase the value of the office to the candidate tend to increase his relative campaign expenditures. However, if contributors are risk-averse, then the former effect is theoretically indeterminate. Empirically, a candidate is more likely to outspend his opponent if he is an incumbent, a member of the weaker political party, and the younger candidate.     

Wiki-worthy: collective judgment of candidate notability

The use of socio-technical data to predict elections is a growing research area. We argue that election prediction research suffers from under-specified theoretical models that do not properly distinguish between ‘poll-like’ and ‘prediction market-like’ mechanisms understand findings. More specifically, we argue that, in systems with strong norms and reputational feedback mechanisms, individuals have market-like incentives to bias content creation toward candidates they expect will win. We provide evidence for the merits of this approach using the creation of Wikipedia pages for candidates in the 2010 US and UK national legislative elections. We find that Wikipedia editors are more likely to create Wikipedia pages for challengers who have a better chance of defeating their incumbent opponent and that the timing of these page creations coincides with periods when collective expectations for the candidate's success are relatively high.     

Sex Role Perceptions and Televised Political Advertising:

With a growing number of women seeking public office, it seems particularly important to compare public perceptions of male and female candidate performances of political television commercials, a dominant form of candidate-voter communication in modern elections. This experimental study tested reactions to both male and female candidates in each of six advertising settings. Two of these were settings traditionally associated with females, two were neutral settings. Results indicated that female candidates can be just as successful in television advertisements as male candidates, and that females are particularly successful when performing in male settings.     

Sources of Status and Influence in All Female and Mixed Sex Groups*

Hollander's (1958) theory on conformity, status, and idiosyncrasy credits was tested using female rather than male groups. Each group contained either one male or one female confederate who broke procedual norms early, in the middle, late, or never during the 15 trials of an experimental game task. For some groups the task was described as a quasi-mathematical task; for others it was described as a common game. The quasi-mathematical definition of the task and male sex of the confederate resulted in greater conformity to the confederate's choice. Contrary to Hollander's theory, previous conformity was not related to influence. The results were interpreted in terms of traditional sex role expectations and in terms of the perceptual marker function that nonconformity plays in small groups. The marker function was related to perception in Hollander's original theoretical formulation.     

The Attractiveness Halo: Why Some Candidates are Perceived More Favorably than Others

Olivola and Todorov (Elected in 100 milliseconds: appearance-based trait inferences and voting. J Nonverbal Behav, 2010) provide a convincing demonstration that competence ratings based on 1-second exposures to paired photos of US congressional candidates predict election outcomes at better than chance levels. However, they do not account for variation in competence judgments. In their analysis, Olivola and Todorov show that attractiveness, familiarity, babyfacedness and age are proximal predictors of vote choice, but find that after controlling for competence these factors no longer reliably influence the margin of electoral victory. Drawing on well-documented halo effects of attractiveness on character-based inferences and the extensive literature on mere exposure effects, we re-organize Olivola and Todorov’s analysis into a simple path model to explore the causal ordering of these factors. We find that spontaneous assessments of attractiveness and familiarity occur prior to attributions of competence, and thus exert a downstream effect on judgments of competence.     

Boy Talk/Girl Talk

Abstract

Using data from a comprehensive database of political advertisements broadcast during the 1998 congressional election cycle, this study assesses whether male and female candidates follow different campaign communications strategies. The results of the analysis demonstrate that there are systematic differences between the ways that male and female candidates communicate with voters, but that these differences are typically not sizeable. In other words, gender seems to matter in campaign communications strategies but not always for very much. Where we do observe differences, however, the findings show that they tend to reinforce gender-based stereotypes more so than work to counteract them. Thus, these differences may be partly accountable for the electoral results we observe.     

Do Candidates Run as Women and Men or Democrats and Republicans? The Impact of Party and Sex on Issue Campaigns

Previous work on the campaigns of women and men has tried to identify whether these candidates campaign for office by focusing on or downplaying gender-stereotyped issues and personality traits. We continue that investigation with a unique data set that uses all campaign advertisements created by almost 400 candidates for Congress in 2010. In examining whether candidate sex or political party identification are the primary influences on the issues candidates present to voters, we determine that all candidates, women and men, campaign as strategic politicians, crafting campaigns around the issues of the day and adopting partisan perspectives on those issues. We find no evidence that women or men attempt to “play to” gender stereotypes in their advertisements.