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1.
Mikael Svensson 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,39(1):65-85
This paper examines within-sample correlation between six different precautionary behaviors and stated willingness to pay
for a mortality risk reduction. The paper also shows estimates of the value of a statistical life based on seat belt and bicycle
helmet use as well as based on the stated willingness to pay for a risk reduction in traffic mortality. Contrary to the theoretical
expectations, no correlation is found between precautionary behavior and stated willingness to pay. One major explanation
is that females and the elderly take more precaution, but state a lower WTP for a risk reduction. The estimates of VSL from
the different approaches are $11.0 million, $5.0 million and $2.8 million from stated WTP, bicycle helmet use and seat belt
use, respectively.
相似文献
Mikael SvenssonEmail: |
2.
Testing Descriptive Utility Theories: Violations of Stochastic Dominance and Cumulative Independence 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Choices between gambles show systematic violations of stochastic dominance. For example, most people choose ($6, .05; $91, .03; $99, .92) over ($6, .02; $8, .03; $99, .95), violating dominance. Choices also violate two cumulative independence conditions: (1) If S = (z, r; x, p; y, q) R = (z, r; x, p; y, q) then S = (x, r; y, p + q) R = (x, r + p; y, q). (2) If S = (x, p; y, q; z, r) R = (x, p; y, q; z, r) then S = (x, p + q; y, r) R = (x, p; y, q + r), where 0 < z < x < x < y < y < y < z.Violations contradict any utility theory satisfying transivity, outcome monotonicity, coalescing, and comonotonic independence. Because rank-and sign-dependent utility theories, including cumulative prospect theory (CPT), satisfy these properties, they cannot explain these results.However, the configural weight model of Birnbaum and McIntosh (1996) predicted the observed violations of stochastic dominance, cumulative independence, and branch independence. This model assumes the utility of a gamble is a weighted average of outcomes\' utilities, where each configural weight is a function of the rank order of the outcome\'s value among distinct values and that outcome\'s probability. The configural weight, TAX model with the same number of parameters as CPT fit the data of most individuals better than the model of CPT. 相似文献
3.
This paper reports estimates for the ex ante tradeoffs for three specific homeland security policies that all address a terrorist attack on commercial aircraft with shoulder
mounted missiles. Our analysis focuses on the willingness to pay for anti-missile laser jamming countermeasures mounted on
commercial aircraft compared with two other policies as well as the prospect of remaining with the status quo. Our findings
are based a stated preference conjoint survey conducted in 2006 and administered to a sample from Knowledge Networks’ national
internet panel. The estimates range from $100 to $220 annually per household. Von Winterfeldt and O’Sullivan’s (2006) analysis
of the same laser jamming plan suggests that the countermeasures would be preferred if economic losses are above $74 billion,
the probability of attack is larger than 0.37 in 10 years, and if the cost of the measures is less than about $14 billion.
Our results imply that, using the most conservative of our estimates, a program with a cost consistent with their thresholds
would yield significant aggregate net benefits.
相似文献
V. Kerry SmithEmail: |
4.
Marco Casari 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(2):117-141
An agent with dynamically inconsistent preferences may deviate from her plan of action as the future draws near. An exponential
discounter may do exactly the same when facing an uncertain future. Through an experiment we compare preference-based vs.
uncertainty-based explanations for choice reversal over time by eliciting choices for pre-commitment and flexibility. Evidence
of widespread commitment favors a preference-based explanation.
相似文献
Marco CasariEmail: |
5.
Robin Pope 《Theory and Decision》1995,39(3):241-265
The terms negative utility of gambling and risk aversion conflate three things:
Factor (iii) has not been previously distinguished from (i). Factor (i) is regularly either confused with (ii) or ignored as elusive and unimportant. 相似文献
(i) | Disutility from the mere act of taking a chance: i.e. negative effects that would not exist if there were no risk or uncertainty, effects which include serious business considerations such as the availability of loans — exemplified in von Neumann and Morgenstern's famous 1947 Appendix; |
(ii) | Diminishing marginal utility of money: — exemplified in Bernoulli and Cramer's expected utility procedure; and |
(iii) | A preference for safety: — exemplified in the rank dependent utility models of Allais, Lopes, Quiggin and Yaari. |
6.
Third-generation prospect theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We present a new theory of decision under uncertainty: third-generation prospect theory (PT3). This retains the predictive power of previous versions of prospect theory, but extends that theory by allowing reference
points to be uncertain while decision weights are specified in a rank-dependent way. We show that PT3 preferences respect a state-conditional form of stochastic dominance. The theory predicts the observed tendency for willingness-to-accept
valuations of lotteries to be greater than willingness-to-pay valuations. When PT3 is made operational by using simple functional forms with parameter values derived from existing experimental evidence, it
predicts observed patterns of the preference reversal phenomenon.
相似文献
Chris StarmerEmail: |
7.
We present two theorems that yield necessary and sufficient conditions for first- and second-degree stochastic dominance deteriorations
of background risk to increase risk aversion with respect to foreground risk. We require that any change in a foreground risk
that is undesirable remains so after a background risk changes in a way that is either unfair, undesirable in the sense of
reducing expected utility, or undesirable in the sense of increasing expected marginal utility. Our results thus characterize
utility functions that are, respectively, vulnerable, proper, or standard with respect to changes in background risk.
相似文献
Arthur SnowEmail: |
8.
Christian Gollier 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(2):107-127
We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability
distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover,
increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that
when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This
can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.
相似文献
Christian GollierEmail: |
9.
For (S, Σ) a measurable space, let
and
be convex, weak* closed sets of probability measures on Σ. We show that if
∪
satisfies the Lyapunov property , then there exists a set A ∈ Σ such that minμ1∈
μ1(A) > maxμ2 ∈
(A).
We give applications to Maxmin Expected Utility (MEU) and to the core of a lower probability. 相似文献
10.
David M. Aadland Arthur J. Caplan Owen R. Phillips 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(2):149-178
A theoretical framework is presented to explain how agents respond to information under uncertainty in contingent valuation
surveys. Agents are provided with information signals and referendum prices as part of the elicitation process. Agents use
Bayesian updating to revise prior distributions. An information prompt is presented to reduce hypothetical bias. However,
we show the interaction between anchoring and the information prompt creates a systematic bias in willingness to pay. We test
our hypotheses in an experimental setting where agents are asked to make a hypothetical, voluntary contribution to a public
good. Experimental results are consistent with the model.
相似文献
David M. AadlandEmail: |
11.
Liqun Liu Andrew J. Rettenmaier Thomas R. Saving 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,38(2):159-172
Self-protection can be financed either by upfront payments or by conditional payments (or contingent fees) in which individuals
pay a provider only when a favorable outcome is realized. We find that, from the vantage point of a risk-averse individual,
conditional payments welfare dominate upfront payments in the state-independent framework, but upfront payments welfare dominate
conditional payments in the state-dependent framework. Moreover, more risk aversion always implies more self-protection under
conditional payments, for both state-independent and state-dependent frameworks. In contrast, it has been previously argued
that more risk aversion does not necessarily imply more self-protection under upfront payments.
相似文献
Liqun LiuEmail: |
12.
Mohammed Abdellaoui Han Bleichrodt Olivier L’Haridon 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(3):245-266
This paper provides an efficient method to measure utility under prospect theory. Our method minimizes both the number of
elicitations required to measure utility and the cognitive burden for subjects, being based on the elicitation of certainty
equivalents for two-outcome prospects. We applied our method in an experiment and were able to replicate the main findings
on prospect theory, suggesting that our method measures what it is intended to. Our data confirmed empirically that risk seeking
and concave utility can coincide under prospect theory. Utility did not depend on the probability used in the elicitation,
which offers support for the validity of prospect theory.
相似文献
Olivier L’HaridonEmail: |
13.
We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will
be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance
their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below
those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing
the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level.
Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.
相似文献
Richard ZeckhauserEmail: |
14.
Can ranking techniques elicit robust values? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates
whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal
phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking
methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal
phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
15.
Dinky Daruvala 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(3):265-283
This paper reports results from an economic experiment where respondents are asked to make choices between risky outcomes
for themselves and others. We investigate whether subjects’ own risk preferences and gender stereotypes are reflected in the
predictions they make for the risk preferences of others and the way this occurs. When predicting other people’s risk preferences,
the respondents tend to use a combination of their own risk preferences and stereotypes. Moreover, when making risky choices
for others, the respondents generally use a combination of their own risk preferences and their average predicted risk preference
of the targeted group.
相似文献
Dinky DaruvalaEmail: |
16.
Catherine Bobtcheff Christian Gollier Richard Zeckhauser 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,37(1):1-33
A fixed budget must be allocated to a finite number of different projects with uncertain outputs. The expected marginal productivity
of capital in a project first increases then decreases with the amount of capital invested. Such behavior is common when output
is a probability (of escaping infection, succeeding with an R&D project...). When the total budget is below some threshold,
it is invested in a single project. Above this cutoff, the share invested in a project can be discontinuous and non-monotone
in the total budget. Above an upper cutoff, all projects receive more capital as the budget increases.
相似文献
Catherine BobtcheffEmail: |
17.
Scope insensitivity and embedding are fundamental concerns in contingent valuation studies for health risk reductions. Recently,
choice experiments have increasingly been used to obtain contingent willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. We juxtapose the WTP
estimates of a choice experiment (CE) to those of the contingent valuation method (CVM) for different health risk reductions
and compare them in the extent of scope insensitivity and embedding. WTP using CVM is scope sensitive for single health risks,
but embedding is observed for multiple disease risks. In contrast, WTP based on the CE is highly scope sensitive and convex
in risk reduction levels.
相似文献
Jutta RoosenEmail: |
18.
Research suggests an association between risk perception and risk-taking behavior in a variety of contexts. There is empirical
evidence that perceived risk is generally biased and that perception of risk influences behavior. Perception of risk can be
endogenous. It is therefore more appropriate to instrument risk perception. This article studies the perception of the risks
associated with impaired driving and the relation between predicted risk perception and driving behavior. We survey a sample
of license-holders, half of whom are drivers with a past conviction for impaired driving, the other half or control group
without such conviction. Predicted perceptual biases are shown to influence actual driving behavior.
相似文献
Georges DionneEmail: |
19.
Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper reports the results of experiments designed to test whether individuals and groups abide by monotonicity with respect
to first-order stochastic dominance and Bayesian updating when making decisions under risk. The results indicate a significant
number of violations of both principles. The violation rate when groups make decisions is substantially lower, and decreasing
with group size, suggesting that social interaction improves the decision-making process. Greater transparency of the decision
task reduces the violation rate, suggesting that these violations are due to judgment errors rather than the preference structure.
In one treatment, however, less complex decisions result in a higher error rates.
相似文献
Edi KarniEmail: |
20.
Adeline Delavande 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(1):43-82
This paper develops a new metric to measure revisions to subjective expectations and proposes a survey design strategy that
enables the estimation of the metric. As an application, I analyze how women update their ex pectations about the effectiveness
of contraception methods. The women interviewed exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the way they revise their expectations
with receipt of the same information. When relating the heterogeneity in the updating process to observable characteristics,
I find that schooling, having a regular sexual partner and knowledge and use of birth control methods have a large impact
on the revision process about the effectiveness of contraceptives.
相似文献
Adeline DelavandeEmail: |