竞争中的参考价格效应及承诺

消费者的社会感知会影响其对产品和品牌的评价。当消费者进行购买选择时,经常会受到参考价格效应的影响。而广告和价格不仅是企业经常要考虑的重要决策,还会对参考价格产生重要影响。为此,一个值得研究的的问题是：在考虑参考价格效应的情况下,企业该怎样确定其动态广告和价格策略？
为了研究该问题,本文构建了一个广告和价格的动态模型,来研究一个双寡头市场环境下两个寡头企业的价格和广告决策,并以此分析参考价格效应的作用。具体而言,我们假定企业可以采用广告承诺和价格承诺中的一种,其中前者承诺其在一段时间内的广告投入量恒定不变,而后者确保价格不变。两种策略不仅会影响消费者的购买决策,也会影响竞争对手的选择。在上述假定下,我们探讨了两个寡头企业在都采用广告承诺、都采用价格承诺及一个企业采用广告承诺而另一个企业采用价格承诺等三种不同情形下的最优广告和价格决策,并以此分析了三种情形下参考价格效应对最优的广告投入及定价策略的影响。最后,通过数值分析,探讨了不同情形下企业的最优策略选择。     

Explaining the influence of time budget pressure on audit quality in Sweden

This paper is aimed at explaining how time budget pressure influences audit quality in the Swedish context. A hypothesis is deduced and tested through a survey sent to Swedish auditors. The Swedish context provides a special setting since audit firms and auditors have been facing new pressures due, for example, to the removal of statutory audits for a majority of the companies in Sweden. The findings show that time budget pressure lowers the quality of audits performed by Swedish auditors, but it is not the only explanation. Audit quality is also related to other factors such as gender, position, experience, number of clients, local office size and audit firm. Thus, the model is useful for explaining the factors influencing audit quality and could be used and expanded in future studies. The study also has practical implications showing that when trading-off between audit efforts and available resources and setting time budgets for each audit assignment, audit firms should also consider the personal characteristics of the auditors.     

A Multiperiod Audit Staff Planning Model Using Multiple Objectives: Development and Evaluation*

The audit staff planning problem, a specific type of manpower planning problem, has been modeled using goal programming and, more recently, multiple objective linear programming. Prior studies developed single-period models and did not go beyond the model building stage. This study develops a multiperiod audit staff planning model and evaluates the model using a test application involving actual decision makers (partners in public accounting firms). The multiperiod model includes seven objectives to be optimized: profit (to be maximized), late completion of work, work declined, staff augmentation, staff reduction, underutilization of the work force, and shortfall in meeting professional development targets (all to be minimized). Over a four-quarter planning horizon with one “busy season,” the model is subject to constraints with respect to the projected audit work load, ability to substitute personnel and to perform interim audit work, available staff hours (including overtime limitations), supervisory requirements, and professional development targets. Results of the test application showed that the model was capable of producing a range of values for each objective. The participants were exposed to much of that range when making their decisions. The results also showed that all objectives were important and that participants were consistent in choosing their preferred level of each objective over several runs of the model. These results and the reactions of the participants demonstrate that the model is usable by actual decision makers and has potential for a number of specific applications.     

Overcoming Incentive Constraints by Linking Decisions1

Consider a Bayesian collective decision problem in which the preferences of agents are private information. We provide a general demonstration that the utility costs associated with incentive constraints become negligible when the decision problem is linked with a large number of independent copies of itself. This is established by defining a mechanism in which agents must budget their representations of preferences so that the frequency of preferences across problems mirrors the underlying distribution of preferences, and then arguing that agents' incentives are to satisfy their budget by being as truthful as possible. We also show that all equilibria of the linking mechanisms converge to the target utility levels. The mechanisms do not require transferable utility or interpersonal comparisons of utility, and are immune to manipulations by coalitions.     

The Effects of Personality Type on Choices Made in Strategic Decision Situations*

Jung's personality-theory typology is used as a framework for exploring the effects of cognitive style on the type and radicalness of choices made in strategic decision situations. Extending the work of Haley and Stumpf [23], it is proposed that individuals with different personality-type preferences exhibit cognitive styles that are associated with specific biases in the pattern of choices they make. Through participation in an interactive behavioral simulation, 407 participants confronted over one hundred ill-structured decision situations and proposed whatever actions they perceived appropriate. The results support the hypothesized relationships that individuals with different personality-type preferences (i.e., sensing-thinking, intuition-thinking, sensing-feeling, and intuition-feeling) take patterns of actions that reflect specific biases (i.e., selective perception, positivity, social desirability, and reasoning-by-analogy, respectively). The implications of these findings for evaluating the likely effectiveness of strategic decisions and making senior-level staffing decisions are discussed.     

Accounting Performance and Capacity Investment Decisions: Evidence from California Hospitals

Capacity decisions involve trade‐offs between the cost of capacity and the opportunity costs of lost sales. Accounting researchers posit that accounting performance provides sufficient information about these trade‐offs and thus can be used to formulate simple rules to assist capacity decisions. Empirical research has not examined the role of accounting information in capacity investment decisions at the department level in a multiproduct firm in the presence of social costs. Empirical analyses using department‐level data from California hospitals for the period 1998–2005 show that hospitals are more likely to make capacity investments in departments with high accounting performance. However, in the presence of demand variability, the association between accounting performance and capacity investment is attenuated because of the resulting increase in noise in accounting performance measures. Thus, the weight on accounting performance as a decision tool for capital investments reduces when there is demand variability. Another factor that reduces the weight on accounting performance is capacity utilization. Higher capacity utilization can lead to turning away or rerouting of patients to other hospitals and negatively impacts reputation and quality of care, which increases the hospital's social costs. Hence, hospitals do not require high accounting performance before investing in a department with high capacity utilization. This empirical evidence of the role of accounting performance in capacity investment decisions fills a gap in the capacity investment literature and furthers our understanding of the interactions between accounting performance and the operational determinants of firms’ capacity investment behavior.     

Trade-offs in Online Purchase Decisions:: Two Empirical Studies in Europe

The Internet offers firms a new way to market their products and services and to interact with their end-consumers. While many firms have developed websites, very little is known about the trade-offs consumers are willing to make when making online purchases. With millions of websites competing for attention, online firms need to know in what way consumers make purchase decisions online. Consumers mainly evaluate websites on the basis of choice and convenience. In this paper, we present the results of two European studies that examine what consumers actually value in an online environment. In study 1, we assess choice-related trade-offs in terms of number of product categories, variety of products within a given category and product-related information. Conjoint analysis revealed that product-related information represents an important decision-making variable. In study 2, we assess convenience-related trade-offs in terms of logistics, fulfilment and security. Conjoint analysis revealed that fulfilment is the most important variable related to online handling. Finally, our study clearly indicates that firms have to distinguish different consumer segments on the basis of their preferences. This knowledge enables online firms to use their resources more effectively.     

Toward an Understanding of the Factors Affecting the Quality of the Audit Process*

The accounting profession has faced increasing pressure from external parties to monitor and improve the quality of the audit process. Similar to other service oriented industries, the accounting profession's ability to meet these pressures has been hampered by the lack of an objective means by which to evaluate process quality. In this research, groups of experienced auditors from two international accounting firms were used to develop and validate a set of key factors influencing the quality of the audit process and a corresponding set of measures for evaluating audit quality. The results support the belief that there exists a consensus among experienced auditors on a set of key audit quality factors which have a significant impact on overall audit quality. The results obtained go beyond those in prior audit quality research, in that the factors identified cover a broader scope and recognize the significant effect of the audit environment on process quality. The consistency between groups in the profession provides support for further use of the nominal group techniques in developing quality measures for processes in other service sector areas.     

Decisions,judgement and style

This paper, one of a series which have already appeared in previous issues, focuses on the role of people, their judgments and their styles in the process of making and taking decisions concerning the future; that future and the decisions which will shape it being part of the complex strategic planning process. The author does not deal with decision analysis but concentrates his analysis upon the delicate balance which is maintained between what Sir Geoffrey Vickers calls ‘the art of judgement’ and the quantifiable elements of decision. The author rightly makes a distinction between decision-making: and decision-taking: this distinction accurately mirrors the long and often complex consultation process which occurs in almost all organizations before a decision is actually taken. The author's analysis concentrates upon the important effect which ‘judgement styles’ can have upon an organization and its planning process. Indeed, this paper suggests quite positively that judgment styles have an important and indeed crucial effect upon the view of the future which an organization will regard as preferable as well as influencing the manner in which the planning process will operate.     

Technology Investment and Management Accounting Practice

Management accounting techniques and information are often accused of having many limitations that are likely to constrain investment in new technology. However, relatively little is known about the actual influence of management accounting practices on investment decisions. The empirical evidence of this research shows that new technology investment decisions are both highly complex and political. These decision attributes give rise to a protracted, circuitous, decision process that is very different from the rational model which dominates the capital budgeting literature. The research also shows that the management accounting system captures only a fraction of the information generated by this process and consequently has a relatively low influence on these investment decisions.     

External audit and bankruptcy prediction

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between external auditor characteristics and the likelihood of bankruptcy. We use a sample of US public companies to analyse whether auditor attributes are associated with default. We also test whether the inclusion of such attributes in bankruptcy prediction models improves their predictive ability. We find that firms audited by industry-expert auditors, large audit firms and long-tenured auditors are less likely to default. Firms with higher audit fees are more likely to default. Our results also show that the inclusion of auditor attributes significantly increases the predictive ability of bankruptcy prediction models. This paper contributes to the literature about auditing and bankruptcy prediction. Our results suggest that the auditor attributes can provide predictive signals concerning a default risk and that an external audit can play a relevant role in early warnings of financial distress. Our study also suggests that bankruptcy prediction models can become more effective if they are complemented with audit data. Our results are of interest to market participants, auditors, regulating authorities, banks and other financial institutions that are interested in credit risk assessment.     

The Effect of Competition on R&D Portfolio Investments

Although project portfolio management has been an active research area over the past 50 years, budget allocation models that consider competition are sparse. Faced with the competition, firms contemplating budget allocation for their project portfolio cannot limit their attention to the returns from their projects' target markets, as is the case for monopoly firms, but must also anticipate the competitive effects on these returns. Assuming firms allocate their budgets between projects offering incremental innovation targeting a mature market and projects offering radical innovation targeting an emerging market, we show that while the monopoly firm bases its budget allocation decision solely on the marginal returns of the markets, competing firms—as they take into account their counterparts' investment decisions—need to also consider the projects' average returns from their respective markets. This drives competing firms into incrementalism: faced with competition, firms invest larger portions of their budgets into projects targeting mature markets. This effect is amplified as the number of competing firms increases and firms allocate an even greater share of their budget into projects targeting a mature market. We further demonstrate the effects that changes to firms' individual budgets, as well as to market characteristics, have on firms' budget allocation decision.     

Deliberation: Integrating Analytical Results into Environmental Decisions Involving Multiple Stakeholders

The National Research Council has recommended the use of an analytic/deliberative decision making process in environmental restoration decisions that involve multiple stakeholders. This work investigates the use of the results of risk assessment and multiattribute utility analysis (the "analysis") in guiding the deliberation. These results include the ranking of proposed remedial action alternatives according to each stakeholder's preferences, as well as the identification of the major reasons for these rankings. The stakeholder preferences are over a number of performance measures that include the traditional risk assessment metrics, e.g., individual worker risk, as well as programmatic, cultural, and cost-related impacts. Based on these results, a number of proposals are prepared for consideration by the stakeholders during the deliberation. These proposals are the starting point for the formulation of actual recommendations by the group. In our case study, these recommendations included new remedial action alternatives that were created by the stakeholders after an extensive discussion of the detailed analytical results.     

The Role of Interorganizational and Organizational Factors on the Decision Mode for Adoption of Interorganizational Systems*

The dramatic growth of interorganizational systems (IOS) has changed the way organizations conduct their business, and has resulted in significant tangible and intangible benefits being realized by participating firms. However, the implementation of these IOS requires the cooperation and commitment of all the participating members. These members may have complex economic and business relationships among themselves that can result in a number of social, political, and economic factors influencing the adoption and implementation of IOS. This study examines the role of interorganizational and organizational factors on the decision mode for adoption of IOS, in the specific context of electronic data interchange (EDI). Four interorganizational factors, based on the socio-political framework derived from research in marketing, and five organizational factors based on research in IS were used in the study. The data for the study were collected through a large scale field survey. Two respondents, the sales/purchase manager and the IS manager, from 201 firms responded to the survey. The results of discriminant analysis of the data reveal that two interorganizational variables, competitive pressure and exercised power, and two organizational variables, internal need and top management support, are important variables to differentiate firms with proactive decision mode from firms with reactive decision mode. The study also evaluates the differences between proactive and reactive firms on three implementation outcomes. Proactive firms are found to have greater extent of adaptation, more external connectivity with trading partners, and better integration of EDI information in their internal IS applications.     

Impairment or amortization of goodwill? An analysis of CFO perceptions of goodwill accounting

Given the ongoing controversy around the accounting treatment of goodwill and the search by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) for improvements to goodwill accounting, this study surveys a global sample of 352 chief financial officers (CFOs) to understand their perceptions of adopting a goodwill impairment-only approach compared to an amortization model. More than half of the respondents agree that alternative accounting treatments of impairment testing might provide more useful information. However, almost two thirds still prefer goodwill impairment testing to the amortization process. Theoretically, the study shows that the impairment-only model preference is associated with characteristics on an individual, firm and country level. The results indicate that more expert CFOs and overall CFO perceptions of firms’ economic conditions and the role of external auditors affect preference for the goodwill accounting model. Further, there is evidence that dominant ownership structures and accounting culture affect CFO preferences. The study investigates several areas in which regulators and standard setters can intervene, thereby contributing to the debate on whether to reintroduce the amortization of goodwill.     

An Optimization Approach for Scheduling Internal Audits of Divisions

In this paper, we develop an optimization model for efficiently scheduling internal audits of multiple units within a business enterprise. The model determines an optimal mix of audit frequencies for the audit units given the risks and costs involved in the audit process. We also show one method for estimating the audit cost and loss functions needed as input to the model and demonstrate how to obtain a solution for the model. To illustrate the model's use, we solve a sample problem with eight audit units and examine the sensitivity of the solution to misestimation of the risk parameters. Our results indicate that the model is readily solvable on a personal computer, useful for choosing an efficient mix of audit frequencies and an overall audit budget, and relatively insensitive to misestimation of the risk parameters.     

The Quality of Stakeholder-Based Decisions

The increased use of stakeholder processes in environmental decision making has raised concerns about the quality of decisions these processes produce. Some claim that stakeholders make inadequate use of scientific information and analysis and are all too ready to sacrifice technical quality for political expediency. This article looks to the case study record to examine the quality of the decisions from stakeholder-based processes. The data for the analysis come from a "case survey," in which researchers coded information from 239 published case studies of stakeholder involvement in environmental decision making. These cases reflect a diversity of planning, management, and implementation activities carried out by environmental and natural resource agencies at many levels of government. Overall, the case-study record suggests that there should be little concern that stakeholder processes are resulting in low-quality decisions. The majority of cases contain evidence of stakeholders improving decisions over the status quo; adding new information, ideas, and analysis; and having adequate access to technical and scientific resources. Indeed, data suggest that it is the more intensive stakeholder processes--precisely those that have aroused recent concern--that are more likely to result in higher-quality decisions.     

模糊积分在多目标决策中的应用研究

基于模糊测度与模糊积分理论,运用层次分析法获取测度函数,研究了解决多目标决策问题的应用方法,实现了模糊积分与层次分析法的联合应用。算例表明,模糊积分理论可以用来解决多目标决策问题。     

口碑效应下网络视频定价与广告投放最优决策

近年来，网络视频成为一种重要的新型消费内容，同时网络口碑对在线内容扩散的影响也日益深刻。本文考虑网络视频收费期内用户情绪效用产生的网络口碑对视频节目扩散过程的影响，运用数理分析方法，研究了网络视频运营商关于节目价格与广告投放量的最优决策问题，并分析了节目口碑属性、节目试看、节目体验质量和收费期等因素对最优决策结果的影响。研究发现，当付费用户与普通用户的视频体验质量差异足够大时，运营商将选择广告主导型策略(广告投放水平相对较高)，反之则选择收费主导型策略(收费水平相对较高)。当节目口碑越好、试看时间越短、付费模式体验质量越低或免费模式体验质量越高时，运营商越倾向于选择收费主导型策略，相应的节目价格、广告投放量和运营商期望利润也将视条件发生不同变化。基于前述最优决策结果，运营商可进一步针对节目口碑属性对收费期进行优化。