后企业时代的职业生涯开发研究和实践:挑战和变革

进入21世纪,职业生涯开发的理论和实践都面临着重大挑战,为了回应这种挑战,职业生涯开发已经进入了一个从理论和实践上重新定义自己的重要时期,新的探索发展使职业生涯开发进入了一个全新的时代,可以被称为"后企业时代的职业生涯开发".本文从理论和实践两个方面分别讨论了职业生涯开发面临的挑战和近年来西方世界对这些挑战做出的回应,并对中国研究者和实践者应该采取的行动做了初步分析.     

企业员工职业成长研究:量表编制和效度检验

本文构建并检验了职业成长四维结构模型,开发了员工职业成长测量量表。在文献研究的基础上,分析了职业成长与相关概念之间的联系与差异。采用访谈、半结构化问卷获取原始数据,结合国外相关研究量表,经归类、汇总和预试修订等多个步骤确定职业成长初始量表。通过项目分析、探索性因素分析等方法筛选确定正式量表,运用验证性因素分析验证了职业成长的四维结构模型。实证研究发现,员工职业成长是个四因素构想,包括职业目标进展、职业能力发展、晋升速度和报酬增长。论文还对继续深入开展员工职业成长研究提出了几点展望。     

The Risk Screening for Indoor Air Pollution Chemicals in Japan

In recent years, public health problems caused by indoor air pollution have been drawing strong public concern in Japan. After conducting extensive exposure assessment, governmental agencies have taken effective measures to solve the problem; for instance, "Guidelines for indoor air quality (IAQ)" of 13 chemicals, for example, formaldehyde, toluene, and xylene, has been established. Thousands of chemicals have been identified in the indoor environment. Priority rating of those chemicals, however, was not based on the health risk level. We developed a risk-screening scheme for indoor air pollution chemicals and analyzed the current status of the risk levels of those chemicals in Japan. We researched scientific knowledge of health hazards and exposure surveys of indoor air pollution chemicals in Japan, and classified those chemicals based on the health risk level estimated from the scheme. The risk levels of 93 chemicals were characterized and six chemicals (formaldehyde, acrolein, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, benzene, tetrachloroethylene, and benzo(a)pyrene) were classified in the highest risk category.     

A Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Japan

A predictive case‐cohort model was applied to Japanese data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) for the period 1985–2020. BSE risk in cattle was estimated as the expected number of detectable cases per year. The model was comprised of a stochastic spreadsheet calculation model with the following inputs: (1) the origin and quantity of live cattle and meat and bone meal imported into Japan, (2) the age distribution of native cattle, and (3) the estimated annual basic reproduction ratio (R₀) for BSE. The estimated probability of having zero detectable cases in Japan in 2015 was 0.90 (95% CI 0.83–0.95). The corresponding value for 2020 was 0.99 (95% CI 0.98–0.99). The model predicted that detectable cases may occur in Japan beyond 2015 because of the assumption that continued transmission was permitted to occur (albeit at a very low level) after the 2001 ban on the importation and domestic use of all processed animal proteins for the production of animal feed and for fertilizer. These results reinforce the need for animal health authorities to monitor the efficacy of control measures so that the future course of the BSE epidemic in Japan can be predicted with greater certainty.     

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone,Australia

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio‐economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision‐making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement.     

Managing Technology Selection and Development Risk in Competitive Environments

Managing development decisions for new products based on dynamically evolving technologies is a complex task, especially in highly competitive industries. Product managers often have to choose between introducing an incrementally better, safe new product early and a superior, yet highly risky, product later. Recommendations for managing such performance vs. time‐to‐market trade‐offs often ignore competitive reactions to development decisions. In this paper, we study how a firm could incorporate the presence of a strategic competitor in making technology selection and investment decisions regarding new products. We consider a model in which an innovating firm and its rival can introduce a new product immediately or pursue a more advanced product for later launch. Further, the firm can reduce the uncertainty surrounding product development by dedicating more resources; the effectiveness of this investment depends on the firm's innovative capacity. Our model generates two sets of insights. First, in highly competitive industries, firms can adopt different technologies and effectively use introduction timing to mitigate the effects of price competition. More importantly, the firm could strategically invest in the advanced product to influence its rival's technology choice. We characterize equilibrium development and investment decisions of the firms, and derive innovative capacity hurdles that govern a firm's choice between the risky and safe alternatives. The effects of development flexibility—where firms might have the option to revert to the safe product if the advanced product fails—are also considered.     

纵向式职业生涯发展与发展性胜任力--基于企业人力资源管理人员的实证研究

麦克利兰提出了"胜任力"的概念,斯宾塞等人将胜任力划分为基准性胜任力与鉴别性胜任力.本文在此基础上,提出新概念-发展性胜任力,并以企业人力资源管理人员为例,通过电话访谈和问卷调查的方式,揭示了决定其纵向式职业生涯发展的发展性胜任力.     

Socioeconomic Risk in Development of Energy Systems

A soft mathematical model, taking stock of the stochastic and cooperative features of the economy of thinking in the decision making, is aggregated to unveil hidden connections between energy policy and the energy technology choices of an establishment. Starting from several assumptions on the nature of the collective decisional behavior, one obtains a probabilistic interpretation of the mechanism of penetration of energy technologies. The probability that the establishment bets on a certain technological profile is given as a solution to a Fokker-Planck equation accounting for the decision game. It provides a topological variety that accomodates possible states of the system and their trajectories, and indicates ways in which different attractors drive the technology choice in the space of the energy policy.
In this framework, a series of concepts (i.e., logistic evolution, resilience, stability, risks of disruption or crisis, energy security) can find in a natural way strikingly intuitive interpretations. Strategic games are possible on this ground, confirming facts of life and also showing predictive power. The complex and difficult to manage interdependence between energy policy and technology appears as a challenge to the long-term planning of alternative energy systems. To meet the challenge, preparedness for changes through a large freedom of choice on the technological options appears as a necessary complement to the faithful observance of the market drives, which stresses the importance of having available perceptive, coherent, reliable, and responsible mechanisms of decision making.     

The Importance of Role Models and Demographic Context for Senior Women's Work Identity Development

The lack of senior female role models continues to be cited as a key barrier to women's career success. Yet there is little academic research into the gendered aspects of role modelling in organizations, or the utility of role models at a senior level. The paper starts with a review of papers examining the construction of role models in organizational settings. This leads to the inclusion of two related areas – organizational demographics as the contextual factor affecting the availability of role models and how they are perceived, and work identity formation as a possible key explanatory factor behind the link between the lack of senior female role models and the lack of career progression to top organizational levels. The literature looking at social theories of identity formation is then considered from a gender perspective. The key gaps identified are that while the behavioural value of role models has been well documented, a better understanding is needed of how gender and organizational demography influence the role modelling process. Importantly, the symbolic value and possibly other values of female role models in the identity construction of senior women require further in‐depth investigation. Finally, this review calls for a more integrated approach to the study of role models and work identity formation, pulling together literatures on organizational demography, the cognitive construal of role models and their importance for successful work identity formation in senior women.     

自我职业生涯管理与职业生涯成功的关系研究

运用问卷调查方法,研究了自我职业生涯管理(ICM)以及职业承诺对职业生涯成功的影响及其影响机制。职业生涯成功包括职业生涯竞争力和满意度2个因素,通过对IT行业员工调查所获得的315份有效问卷的数据分析,发现在控制了人口学变量后,ICM和职业承诺仍然对职业生涯成功有预测作用,而且职业承诺的影响部分地通过ICM中介影响职业生涯成功。     

我国海外石油开发利用的国家风险评估

在对我国海外石油开发利用国家风险因素进行分析的基础上,运用模糊综合评判法构建海外石油开发利用风险评估模型,并基于层次分析法对相关风险指标体系进行权重确定;同时,选取了我国海外石油开发利用涉及的一些典型地区或国家进行石油开发利用风险评估。研究发现:政治风险是影响海外石油开发利用的非常重要风险因素;我国在中东地区进行石油开发利用的风险最大,其次是西非、北非以及俄罗斯地区。     

以科学发展观引领干部实绩考核

在长期的工作实践中,组织部门已经形成了一套传统的、比较有效的干部实绩考评方法,在干部选拔任用中发挥了积极的作用。但是,传统的考评方法也存在着一些局限性和误区,概括起来有“四重四轻”。一、重汇报,轻实效。只听数字汇报,过分强调GDP、产值、利税等经济指标的增长速度,忽视了投入、效率、损失等数据,没有深入实际调查群众生活质量是否改善、干部的工作效率是否提高、社会生产能否可持续发展等,易造成“考核出数字,数字出政绩”的后果。二、重结果,轻过程。往往只听几个观点、记几组数据,每个观点举个把事例,定性评价有余,定量分析…     

美日电子商务发展比较

美日在IT领域的发展差距体现在很多方面,电子商务是其中之一。本文比较分析了美日电子商务的规模,总结了美日发展电子商务的不同特征,并指出至少在目前,电子商务在日本具有较强的工具性和一定的封闭性,而美国的电子商务发展更能满足电子商务的本质要求。文中还探讨了造成美日之间这一发展差距的原因,及今后可能推动日本电子商务发展的有利条件。     

Engaging Expert Peers in the Development of Risk Assessments

The participation of external technical experts in the development of risk assessment documents and methodologies has expanded and evolved in recent years. Many government agencies and authoritative organizations have experts peer review important works to evaluate the scientific and technical defensibility and judge the strength of the assumptions and conclusions (OMB, 2004; IPCS, 2005; IARC, 2006; Health Canada, 2007; U.S. EPA, 2006). Expert advice has been solicited in other forms of peer involvement, including peer consultation in, for example, the U.S. EPA's Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program (VCCEP). This article discusses how the principles and practices of peer review can be extended to other types of peer involvement activities (i.e., peer input and peer consultation) to develop high-quality risk assessment work products. A comprehensive process for incorporating peer input, peer consultation, and peer review into risk assessment science is outlined. Four key principles for peer involvement-independence, inclusion of appropriate experts, transparency, and a robust scientific process-are discussed. Recent examples of peer involvement in the development of Health Canada's Priority Substances and Domestic Substance List (DSL) programs under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) serve to highlight the concepts.     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

Risk Perception and Technological Development at a Societal Level

This article tests the hypothesis that the exposure to the threat to societies posed by the introduction of new technologies is associated with a normalization of risk perception. Data collected in 2000 by the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) on environmental issues were used to explore this hypothesis. Representative samples from 25 countries were employed to assess the national levels of perceived threat to the environment associated with a series of technologies and activities. These values were correlated with economic indicators (mainly from the World Bank) of the diffusion of each of the technologies or activities in each country. Results indicate a negative association of risk perception with the level of technological prevalence (societal normalization effect) and a positive association with the rate of growth of the technology (societal sensitivity effect). These results indicate that the most acute levels of perceived environmental risk are found in those countries where the level of technological prevalence is low but where there has recently been substantial technological development. Environmental awareness is a mediator of the relationship between risk perception and the indices of technological diffusion. This result means that: (1) societal normalization of risk is not a direct consequence of prevalence of the technology, but is driven by awareness of technological development and that (2) societal sensitivity to risk is associated with lower levels of environmental awareness.     

Development of a Preliminary Framework for Informing the Risk Analysis and Risk Management of Nanoparticles

Decisions are often made even when there is uncertainty about the possible outcomes. However, methods for making decisions with uncertainty in the problem framework are scarce. Presently, safety assessment for a product containing engineered nano-scale particles is a very poorly structured problem. Many fields of study may inform the safety assessment of such particles (e.g., ultrafines, aerosols, debris from medical devices), but engineered nano-scale particles may present such unique properties that extrapolating from other types of studies may introduce, and not resolve, uncertainty. Some screening-level health effects studies conducted specifically on engineered nano-scale materials have been published and many more are underway. However, it is clear that the extent of research needed to fully and confidently understand the potential for health or environmental risk from engineered nano-scale particles may take years or even decades to complete. In spite of the great uncertainty, there is existing research and experience among researchers that can help to provide a taxonomy of particle properties, perhaps indicating a relative likelihood of risk, in order to prioritize nanoparticle risk research. To help structure this problem, a framework was developed from expert interviews of nanotechnology researchers. The analysis organizes the information as a system based on the risk assessment framework, in order to support the decision about safety. In the long term, this framework is designed to incorporate research results as they are generated, and therefore serve as a tool for estimating the potential for human health and environmental risk.     

Separation and Divorce: Effect on Family Structures and Life Conditions

The aim of this paper is to supply some basic data on separations and divorces in Italy in order to evaluate their impact on the family system both from a quantitative and qualitative point of view. The focus is on the role played by marital disruption in the observed recent increase in the number of ‘new families’ and its effects on the life conditions and economic well‐being of the women and children involved.     

Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya.⁽ 1 ⁾ The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.