The once and future crisis

The insurance crisis of the mid-1980s produced a number of legal and public policy reactions. Although many of the immediate symptoms of that crisis have disappeared, a number of its underlying causes remain. This article analyzes the continuing effect of these factors on the insurance markets, and predicts the occurrence of a milder crisis during the mid-1990s.     

Availability Crises in Insurance Markets: Optimal Contracts with Asymmetric Information and Capacity Constraints

Insurance markets sometimes exhibit "crises" in which prices rise dramatically and coverage is unavailable or is rationed at the new prices. A recent explanation for such crises is the "capacity constraint" model of Gron and Winter. Crises usually follow sudden and large depletions in insurers' equity or surplus. The capacity constraint model argues that frictional costs in replacing surplus, and limited liability, give rise to a kinked insurance supply function and that crises arise from discontinuous short term adjustments around the kink. While this model explains much about liability insurance crises, it still leaves unexplained their most prominent feature; that insurance is rationed or unavailable. We follow their insight in looking to equity shocks and capital market frictions to explain crises and combine this with a model of optimal risk sharing contracts under the information conditions characteristic of this market. We use implicit long term contracts with truth telling constraints to address information asymmetries and this allows us to model crises that exhibit rationing. Our model is tested in the market most dramatically affected by such crises in the 1980‘s, the general liability insurance market.     

The effect of 1980s tort reform legislation on general liability and medical malpractice insurance

A large number of states adopted tort reforms in the mid-1980s to limit the dramatic surge in insurance losses and premiums. Evidence based on liability insurance data by state indicates that these reforms substantially influenced general liability insurance. The levels of losses, premiums, and loss ratios (a measure of insurance profitability) all reflected the impact of the reforms. The large-scale reform efforts in 1986 were particularly influential. Medical malpractice insurance was much less sensitive to the reform efforts.     

Is the insurance aspect of producer liability valued by consumers? Liability changes and childhood vaccine consumption

Standard economic theory predicts that the forced tying of an insurance policy to the purchase of a risky product cannot be welfare enhancing. At best, such insurance is redundant due to cheaper methods of insuring against loss, and, at worst, such coverage is not demanded at all. Exploiting the change in the liability environment which occurred in the vaccine market in the early 1980s, this article seeks to identify the value that consumers place on the insurance component of producer liability. The principal finding is that the demand for immunization is not increased, and may have been reduced, by liability. This implies that consumers place no value on the insurance which they are forced to buy under this regime, leaving them worse off than they would have been without producer liability for vaccine injuries. The best estimate is that by 1985, the change in liability environment had reduced the number of children properly immunized with the DPT and polio vaccines by approximately 1 million.     

Lloyd's Financial Distress and Contagion within the US Property and Liability Insurance Industry

The intra-industry effect of Lloyd's financial distress on publicly traded US insurance companies is examined. Given Lloyd's prominence in the international insurance industry, large losses raised questions about the industry's capacity for certain types of risks and the financial solvency of other insurers. The market value of US property-liability insurers fell significantly at the announcement. This decline is related to the firm's revenues from insurance and reinsurance exposure. Results support contagion between Lloyd's distress and the US insurance industry. The study raises concerns about the potential for a systematic disruption of the supply of reinsurance in the international marketplace.     

Adverse selection and equilibrium in liability insurance markets

Models of asymmetric information in insurance markets typically consider insurance buyers with Bernoulli loss distributions differing in expected loss. This article analyzes markets where buyer loss distributions are characterized by mean-preserving spreads and insurers can classify applicants in terms of expected values but not by risk. Because liability losses are characterized by skewed continuous probability distributions, both discrete and continuous loss distributions are considered. In contrast to the single separating equilibrium in the classic Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance market, multiple separating equilibria are identified in this article: three in the discrete case and four in the continuous case. The possibility of extreme discontinuities in insurer policy offers provides a new explanation for crises in liability insurance markets.The support of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners is gratefully acknowledged.     

Moral hazard in insurance claiming: Evidence from automobile insurance

This article provides new evidence on moral hazard in insurance markets by analyzing the frequency of automobile bodily injury liability (BIL) claims. We conduct cross-sectional regressions of statewide BIL claims frequency rates on variables representing state economic, demographic, and legal characteristics that affect the marginal costs and benefits of filing claims. As an indicator of moral hazard, we use survey data on consumer attitudes toward various types of dishonest behavior relating to insurance claims. The results provide strong support for the hypothesis that attitudes toward dishonest behavior are related to BIL claims frequency, and thus provide evidence of significant moral hazard in automobile insurance markets.     

McCarran-Ferguson Act reform: More competition or more regulation?

The antitrust exemptions provided by the McCarran-Ferguson Act are often identified as the cause of a variety of problems that have plagued the property-liability insurance industry in the last decade. In particular, proponents of repeal of the Act suggest that it has facilitated anticompetitive behavior by insurers, which in turn contributed to the liability and auto insurance crises of the 1980s. We examine industry structure, behavior, and performance and assess possible market imperfections that may justify price regulation and special antitrust treatment. We find that the major barrier to effective competition is state rate regulation rather than anticompetitive behavior. We examine evidence on the causes of the liability and auto insurance crises and conclude that they are readily explained by changes in market conditions and regulatory constraints rather than anticompetitive behavior. While there is no need for the broad antitrust exemptions contained in the Act, there is a danger that repeal will lead to more inefficient price regulation unless reform of the Act includes restrictions on state rate regulation. We propose reform legislation that both narrows the industry's antitrust exmption and promotes competition.     

Impact of finance on growth: Does it vary with development levels or cyclical conditions?

Financial systems are complex and may support economic growth differently at various stages of economic development. This study of 90 countries extends the financial development-economic growth literature by using four proxies of financial development (banking, stock market, bond market and insurance), and considering a country’s level of economic development, on both a full and pre-global crisis sample. As expected financial markets have different effects on growth where the level of economic development vary. Policy makers should find that the insurance sector offers the most benefit for economic growth at all levels of development. Stock markets promote growth for middle income countries. Similarly bond markets promote growth with middle and high income countries. Some bond market and stock market results differed in the pre-crisis sample. Policies which promote trade but limit other areas such as inflation, government consumption and crises, should also support growth.     

Union carbide's Bhopal incident: A retrospective

This article examines the actual events of the Bhopal gas disaster as a prelude to considering the social treatment of catastrophic risks of this variety. In the context of the conference, Bhopal is held out to be symbolic of man-made catastrophes having sudden impact and is therefore the contrasting episode to an examination of the symbolic episode for gradual man-made catastrophes, asbestos liability. Bhopal is then connected to the circumstances which created a shortage of commercial catastrophe liability insurance in the 1980s. Its influence on the restructuring of the market is then discussed. A commentary on the buying habits of large industrial corporations is also included.     

Handicapped by old and new traps: Hungary's health care reform

Since the early 1980s, grave challenges have faced Hungarian health policy. The health status of the population stagnated between the mid-1960s and mid-1970s, and has dramatically deteriorated since then. In the 1980s the multidimensional crisis of the health care system deepened. Its overhaul must embrace every component: policy-making, ownership, financing, management, service structure, patient rights, medical education, etc. The main purpose of this paper is to describe how health policy has (or has not) responded to these challenges. First it summarizes the inheritance of the state-socialist regime, then it outlines the recent changes in social insurance legislation, and finally it compares official goals with the way the reform is actually proceeding. The paper is intended to discuss the connection between health care reform and the historic transformation of the political regime and the economy.     

Structural reforms and labor markets in Argentina

Argentina is considered to be one of the most successful cases of structural reforms in Latin America, because of the extent and rapid pace of the reforms after the hyperinflationary process of 1989–1990. At the beginning of 1991, the convertible plan was launched and inflation fell sharply. However, even when the economy is growing fast, the problems in the labor market seem to worsen. Unemployment and underemployment have risen, and an increasing number of people have fallen out of normal work. The article analyzes how changes in labor markets are closely related to the transformation process in the economic system. After a summary of the situation before the crisis of the 1980s, the article analyzes the stabilization plans applied and then discusses the current dynamics of labor markets and the policies implemented to change labor regulations. Finally, some hypotheses about future scenarios are presented.     

Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries

This paper provides an analysis of the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between stock prices and exchange rates as well as the channels through which exogenous shocks influence these markets. We use monthly data for the period January 1980 to February 2009 for four Latin America, namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We conduct our analysis by means of cointegration analysis and multivariate Granger causality tests. The main finding of our analysis suggests that stock and foreign exchange markets in these economies are positively related and that the U.S. stock market acts as a channel for these links. Moreover, it is shown that these links are independent of foreign exchange restrictions. Finally, stability tests proposed by Hansen and Johansen (1993) are applied and it is shown that the dimension of the cointegration space is sample independent while the estimated coefficients exhibit instability in recursive estimations. Instability in these long-run relationships is evident during the Mexican currency crisis of 1994-1995, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the 2007-2009 credit and financial crisis.     

给付保险金性质辨析

侵权责任、违约责任和缔约过失责任是民事责任的三种类型。就民事责任与民事义务关系而言,民法学界通说认为民事责任是违反民事义务的结果。保险事故发生导致保险标的损失或被保险人死亡、伤残,保险人应当赔偿或给付保险金,但这是保险人履行合同义务的行为,非为“承担保险责任”。     

Propitious selection in insurance

The theory of propitious selection suggests that there are risk-avoiding personalities who both take physical precautions and buy financial security (insurance). Conversely, there are risk seekers who tend to do neither. Survey evidence is presented that is consistent with the theory. Individuals who obtain motor vehicle liability coverage are less likely than others to drink-and-drive, and are more likely to engage in health-beneficial (risk-avoiding) behaviors. Propitious selection may be a general phenomenon promoting favorable selection in many real world insurance markets.This research was supported by the Harvard Injury Control Center, funded by the Centers for Disease Control. Special thanks to Jennifer Carter, Sara Solnick, and also to Beth Sprinkel of the Insurance Research Council. Useful suggestions were received from Eric Latimer, Roger Davis, Marcello Pagano, and anonymous reviewers. The raw data were obtained from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research in Storrs, Connecticut.     

How Much Internalization of Nuclear Risk Through Liability Insurance?

An important source of conflict surrounding nuclear energy is that with a very small probability, a large-scale nuclear accident may occur. One way to internalize the associated financial risks is through mandating nuclear operators to have liability insurance. This paper presents estimates of consumers' willingness to pay for increased financial security provided by an extension of coverage, based on the 'stated choice' approach. A Swiss citizen with median characteristics may be willing to pay 0.14 US cents per kwh to increase coverage beyond the current CHF 0.7 billion (bn.) (US$ 0.47 bn.). Marginal willingness to pay declines with higher coverage but exceeds marginal cost at least up to CHF 4 bn.(US$ 2.7 bn.). An extension of nuclear liability insurance coverage therefore may be efficiency-enhancing.     

The risky business of insurance pricing

The factors influencing insurance pricing decisions are assessed using the ISO product liability ratemaking files for 1980–1984. The mean loss level has a strong positive effect on manual rates and premium rates/exposure. Evidence on a variety of ambiguity measures is more mixed. As a broad generalization, risk ambiguity lowers manual rates, which may reflect exclusion of large loss outliers as being unrepresentative. Risk ambiguity tends to have a positive effect on actual pricing decisions for particular policies, especially bodily injury lines and the interactive risk-ambiguity model.     

Insurance supply with capacity constraints and endogenous insolvency risk

Negative shocks to industry capital and significant capital adjustment costs have been offered as an explanation of periodic “crises” in the property-liability insurance market. According to these capacity constraint models, in which post-shock production must meet a solvency constraint, increases in price can cause some or perhaps all of the cost of a negative shock to capital to be shifted to policyholders. This article develops a model of insurance supply with capacity constraints and endogenous insolvency risk that incorporates limited liability and potential loss of insurer intangible capital. If industry demand is inelastic with respect to price and capital, the model predicts that price will increase following a negative shock to capital, but by less than the amount needed to fully offset the shock. Equity value and the expected recovery by policyholders for post-shock production are predicted to decline. Elastic demand mitigates shock-induced price increases.     

透过"橱窗"看到的福利国家--一个基于瑞典的案例分析

瑞典福利国家制度的显著特征是覆盖面广、设计项目多、保障水平高,注重"公平"胜于注重"效率"。20世纪70年代后,这一制度的实施出现了财政危机,然而更深层次的危机,则是高福利所要求的高税率对人们工作积极性和国际竞争力的打击。因此使之成为改革的重点。瑞典改革案例给予中国重要启示:建设完善的社会保障制度,是实现经济发展与社会进步的必然选择,这既是政府的责任,也是人民的企盼;但制度设计要避免重蹈瑞典福利国家制度"过度"福利供给的覆辙。     

Behavioral insurance: Theory and experiments

“Risk and insurance” provides an illustrative set of decisions made in the presence of uncertainty. As behavioral models become more integrated into economics and finance, many of their effects are illustrated quite well within insurance markets. Especially noteworthy are the complementary roles of theory and experiments. This article reviews the interactive role of experiments and theory in analyzing insurance demand from a behavioral perspective. We pay special attention to several models of underinvestment in insurance or in other risk-mitigation markets.