ISSUE INVOLVEMENT AND RESPONSE EFFECTS IN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS

This research tests the widespread assumption that responseeffects due to variations in question form, wording, or contextwill be greatest among respondents who are least involved withan issue. A meta-analysis of results from 15 split-ballot experimentsconducted over a five-year period indicates that the responseeffects of using counterarguments or middle alternatives insurvey questions are significantly larger, as would be expected,among respondents who are less involved with a given issue thanamong those who are highly involved with it. But the effectsof question order and response order appear to be largely unrelatedto how involved a respondent is with a particular issue. Issueinvolvement, then, appears to specify some response effects,but not others.     

SELF-INTEREST AND PUBLIC OPINION TOWARD SMOKING RESTRICTIONS AND CIGARETTE TAXES

A burgeoning literature suggests that self-interest has littleinfluence on policy preferences. In sharp contrast are the findingsdiscussed in this paper: we show that self-interest plays adecisive role in shaping attitudes toward smoking restrictionsand cigarette taxes. Data from two random samples of Californiaadults collected by the Field Institute in April 1987 and February1984 indicate that nonsmokers are far more enthusiastic abouttightening smoking restrictions and increasing cigarette taxesthan smokers, particularly heavy smokers. We conclude by discussingseveral explanations for the apparent discrepancy between theseresults and the pattern of null findings characteristic of theself-interest literature.     

PRESSURE GROUPS AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURES: THE FLYPAPER EFFECT RECONSIDERED

A model of government budgeting is developed in which lobbying by interest groups can divert the allocation of funds away from the one preferred by the median voter. The model is applied to state and local governments to show that the "flypaper effect"–the tendency for lump-sum grants to increase public expenditures by more than an equivalent increase in the community's pretax income–can be explained without the customary assumption of voter fiscal illusion. Furthermore, the model predicts variation in the extent of the flypaper effect among expenditure categories, as found in previous empirical studies.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE PANAMA CANAL TREATIES OF 1977

In April 1978, after nine months of national debate, the Senatenarrowly ratified new Panama Canal treaties. Voting was apparentlyinfluenced by numerous opinion polls, which were seen as showingincreased support for the treaties. But several analysts haveshown that this interpretation was erroneous; public opinionconsistently opposed the treaties. This study attempts to determinewhat went wrong. It begins by arraying and analyzing all nationalpoll results on the topic in order to establish a coherent pictureof public opinion. It then identifies a number of polling andreporting practices which may have contributed to the misinterpretationof the findings. The study concludes with recommendations foralleviating these problems.     

POLLING ON THE ISSUES PUBLIC OPINION AND THE NUCLEAR FREEZE

Throughout the first term of the Reagan administration, thenuclear freeze movement headlined the news and scored numerouspolitical victories. Hundreds of state and local governments,as well as the U.S. House of Representatives, passed resolutionsin support of the freeze. Public opinion polls played a majorrole in the debate, as the media and freeze advocates citednumerous polls indicating overwhelming public support for theinitiative. Yet a comprehensive and detailed examination ofnational polls reveals that public support for the freeze cameheavily qualified. While Americans expressed strong supportfor the basic concept of a freeze, they expressed doubts aboutthe possibility of a verifiable and balanced freeze agreement.Furthermore, the public doubted that the Soviet Union genuinelydesired such an agreement. Most surprisingly, the public didnot pay much attention to the debate. Few Americans claimedto know or care much about the freeze initiative, and fewerstill felt positively toward the political activists behindthe freeze.     

THE IMPACT OF A PUBLIC OPTION IN THE U.S. HEALTH INSURANCE MARKET

We develop a game‐theoretical framework to examine the implications of the introduction of a nonprofit “public option” in the U.S. health insurance market. In this model, heterogeneous consumers have to choose between two competing insurance plans. One plan is offered by a profit‐maximizing private insurer; the other by social‐welfare‐maximizing public option. In equilibrium, the distinct objectives of the two insurers induce adverse selection in consumer choice: the public option covers the less healthy consumers, yielding the more profitable segment of market to the private insurer. However, our empirical results suggest that both insurers will capture significant parts of the health insurance market. (JEL I11, L10, L21, L32)     

INTEGRATED HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS: AN ASSESSMENT OF U.S. METHODS AND AN INNOVATION

We present a vision for improving household financial surveys by integrating responses from questionnaires more completely with financial statements and combining them with payments data from diaries. Integrated household financial accounts—balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows—are used to assess the degree of integration in leading U.S. household surveys, focusing on inconsistencies in measures of the change in cash. Diaries of consumer payment choice can improve dynamic integration. Using payments data, we construct a statement of liquidity flows: a detailed analysis of currency, checking accounts, prepaid cards, credit cards, and other payment instruments, consistent with conventional cash flow measures and the other financial accounts. (JEL D12, D14, E41, E42)     

PARTY AFFILIATION AND PUBLIC SPENDING: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. GOVERNORS

This paper investigates whether the party affiliation of governors (Democrat or Republican) has an impact on the allocation of state expenditures. Exploiting gubernatorial election results from 1960 to 2012 and a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), we find that Democratic governors allocate a larger share of their budget to health/hospitals and education sectors. We find no significant impact of the political party of governors on total spending, only on the allocation of funds. The results are robust to a wide range of controls and model specifications. (JEL D72, H75, H72)     

THE ROLE OF THE MEDIAN LEGISLATOR IN U.S. TRADE POLICY: A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

In this historical analysis of U.S. trade policy, we apply the median voter model to explain legislative decision making. In this model, the level of tariff protection is expected to change with changes in the median legislator. We show that this simple model does a remarkable job if explaining trade policy until the mid-1930s, when it breaks down. We offer several possible explanations for the breakdown of this model, focusing particularly on the impact of domestic and international institutional changes that may have altered the role of the median legislator in trade policy formation.     

RELEASING THE TRAP: A METHOD TO REDUCE INATTENTION BIAS IN SURVEY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO U.S. BEER TAXES

This study uses discrete choice experiments to explore the efficacy of prompts targeted at reducing inattention bias. Upon receiving feedback, inattentive respondents are given the opportunity to reanswer a so‐called “trap question” that checks for attentiveness. We find that individuals who miss trap questions and do not correctly revise their responses have significantly different choice patterns as compared to individuals who correctly answer the trap question. Adjusting for these inattentive responses has a substantive impact on policy impacts. Results, based on attentive participant responses, indicate that a minimum beer price would have to be substantial to substantially reduce beer demand. (JEL C83, Q18, Q51)     

SULPHUR AND THE U.S. GOVERNMENT: PRICE FIGHTING IN THE 1960s*

The interaction between the domestic sulphur industry and the executive branch of the U.S. Government during the Johnson administration suggests that this important extractive industry was sensitive to governmental “moral suasion.” A narrative is provided of the relationship between the industry and the administration's economists, lawyers and departmental politicians. This narrative is followed by an appropriate least squares price model. It is shown that the administration was successful in its efforts to suppress sulphur prices during 1965-66, that is, during the early stages of the commitment of U.S. forces to combat in Southeast Asia.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE END OF BUSING: (Mis) Perceptions of Policy Failure

Public opinion was largely ignored when the federal government first compelled busing for school desegregation in the 1970s. Yet, public opinion has a potentially large impact on local school boards' plans and policies when communities seek or obtain unitary status. Scholarship suggests that self-interest, racial attitudes, and philosophical values shape antibusing sentiments. Analysis of survey data from Nashville, Tennessee, shows that they do there as well. More important, though, further analysis shows that perceptions of busing's failure, which seem to be misguided, have a substantial impact on whether respondents want busing to end, even when race, self-interest, and ideological values are controlled. Perception, as mis-perception, is therefore a potentially salient factor in policy evaluation. Perceptions of policy success or failure may be socially constructed by media, elites, or people themselves. Additional research in this direction is clearly necessary.     

LOGROLLING IN THE U.S. CONGRESS

Does exchange, i.e., vote trading, occur in legislatures?!f so, is it quantitatively important or optimal? How important are political parties for the organization of logrolling coalitions? To address these questions, this paper investigates a broad range of votes where logrolling has been reported among interests favoring subsidies for urban, labor, and farm interests. The findings suggest that logrolling agreements are widespread, that many Democratic congressmen changed votes because of logrolling agreements, and that the Democratic party served to facilitate logrolling between its members. Furthermore, logrolling coalitions exhibited a strong degree if stability.     

STATE TAXES AND LEGISLATIVE TURNOVER IN THE UNITED STATES

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that term limits and, by extension, higher legislative turnover increase the overall size of government and change its spending composition. However, less is known about the turnover's impact on the composition of tax revenues. This study fills this void by exploiting exogenous variation in term limits and redistricting as instruments for legislative turnover, which is found to be positively associated with most state taxes except for the corporate income tax. We hypothesize that the negative association between legislative turnover and corporate income taxes might be influenced by a higher propensity of business owners to enter term-limited state legislatures. (JEL H7, H3)     

TRADE,GEOGRAPHY AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN U.S. MANUFACTURING

A number of studies have suggested that countries (or regions) with access to larger markets have higher wages. In this paper, we examine whether access to larger markets affects skilled and unskilled workers differently. We develop a model relating two key measures of market size, market and supplier access, to industry value added prices. We then estimate the effects of growth in these measures on factor returns in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find that growth in these measures can explain around 5% of the rise in the skill premium over the sample period. (JEL F12, F16, L60)     

STABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE U.S. PUBLIC'S KNOWLEDGE OF POLITICS

The U.S. public's current knowledge about politics is comparedwith levels of knowlege in the 1940s and 1950s. Fourteen questionsasked by Gallup on various surveys from 1945 to 1957 were includedon a larger survey of political knowledge conducted by telephonein 1989 with a randomly selected sample of 610 adult U.S. residents.On 8 of the 14 items, the percentage answering correctly in1989 was higher than in the earlier surveys (by 4–15 points).One item showed an increase of 1 percent, two were down 1 percent,and three others declined by 5 percent, 9 percent, and 10 percent.When level of education is controlled, however, levels of knowledgeappear to have declined for most of the items. A reanalysisof some of the original Gallup data is used to estimate theeffectiveness of schools in transmitting political informationin 1989 compared with the earlier years.     

THE IMPACT OF INVESTIGATIVE REPORTING ON PUBLIC OPINION AND POLICYMAKING TARGETING TOXIC WASTE

This article reports the fourth in a continuing series of casestudies that explore the impact of news media investigativejournalism on the general public, policymakers, and public policy.The media disclosures in this field experiment had limited effectson the general public but were influential in changing the attitudesof policymakers. The study describes how changes in public policymakingresulted from collaboration between journalists and governmentofficials. The authors develop a model that is a beginning steptoward specifying the cond6itions under which media investigationsinfluence public attitudes and agendas.