Demographic Change in Nonmetropolitan America, 1980 to 19901

Abstract Between 1980 and 1990, the nonmetropolitan population grew by 3.7 percent. Natural increase accounted for the entire population gain, offsetting a small migration loss (1.7%). A significant net loss of young adults from nonmetropolitan areas was only partially offset by an influx of older adults. The net gain through natural increase was small by historical standards and natural decrease became more common. The demographic trends of the 1980s were neither a repeat of the turnaround of the 1970s nor a reversion to historical patterns. Rather, they straddled the trends of the two preceding periods. These findings provide the demographic groundwork for future theoretical development. The policy implications of such population redistribution and demographic compositional shifts also are considered.     

Nonmetropolitan Population Change in the Mountain West: 1970–1995

Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.     

Recent Trends in Metropolitan-Nonmetropolitan Fertility1

Abstract Although decline and convergence in metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) fertility levels are longterm trends, a detailed analysis of the period since 1970 shows a pattern of exceptions and conditions which underscore the need for giving continued attention to differences by residence. There was a divergence of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan fertility rates in the 1970–1980 decade, but the renewed convergence since 1980 has made an important contribution to the turnaround reversal of metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change. This recent rate convergence is not a simple coming together of the age-specific rates, but the balancing of changes in opposite directions for younger and older women. Metro-nonmetro differences widened in favor of nonmetro for women 20–24 years of age and in favor of metro for women over 30 years of age. The apparent catching up of postponed first and second births is found primarily among metropolitan women over 30 years of age.     

The Recent Revival of Widespread Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Areas of the United States1

Abstract Population growth was widespread in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas of the United States during the early 1990s. More than 64 percent of the 2,277 nonmetro counties gained population between 1990 and 1992, compared with only 45 percent in the 1980s. The nonmetro population still grew at a slower pace than did the metropolitan population, but the gap was much narrower than during the 1980s. Net migration gains accounted for 43 percent of the total estimated nonmetro population increase of 879,000 between 1990 and 1992. These findings suggest it is premature to conclude that the renewed population growth in nonmetro areas first noted in the 1970s has ended.     

Consequences of Population Change for Retail/Wholesale Sector Employment in the Nonmetropolitan Great Plains: 1950–19961

Abstract A rural economic restructuring perspective and central place theory are used to assess the impact of population change on retail/wholesale sector employment for the 438 nonmetropolitan counties of the Great Plains region from 1950 to 1990. Findings indicate that county level population declined for every decade except the 1970 turnaround decade, and the greatest losses were in completely rural nonadjacent counties. The civilian labor force declined for all but the 1970 decade, when there was a substantial increase due to increased nonmetro manufacturing and the baby boom cohorts reaching labor force age. Retail/wholesale labor force increased in every decade except the 1980s. However, regression analysis found a positive and highly significant relationship between population change and retail/wholesale employment change. For this region, population decline is a major contributor to decline in the retail/wholesale employment sector at the county level. Preliminary data from the 1990–1996 period indicate a population and labor force rebound from the 1980s. However, as in the 1980s, gains are most likely concentrated in a small number of mainly urban nonadjacent counties.     

Nonmetropolitan Poor Children and Reliance on Public Assistance1

Abstract This research documents trends from 1970 through 1990 in the utilization and ameliorative effects of public assistance among poor children in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) and metropolitan (metro) America. Results indicate that the families of nonmetro poor children rely more heavily on parental earnings and less so on public assistance when compared to their metro counterparts; that there was a sharp rise over the period in reliance on public assistance, especially among nonmetro children, and a corresponding decline in reliance on earnings; that the ability of public assistance to ameliorate child poverty is modest; and that while the ameliorative effects are always greater in metro than nonmetro areas, this disparity declined over the 1980s owing partially to improvement in nonmetro areas.     

What Clean Break?: Education and Nonmetropolitan Migration Patterns, 1989–2004

Abstract Recent data suggest that nonmetropolitan America is experiencing an outmigration trend. Between 1998 and 2004, more people have moved out of nonmetropolitan areas than moved into these areas. This net outmigration trend presents a fundamental challenge to nonmetropol‐itan areas and contradicts the predictions of social scientists who argued that the rural renaissance of the 1970s represented a clean break with earlier patterns of internal migration. Using annual data from the 1989– 2004 rounds of the Current Population Survey March Demographic Supplement, this paper analyzes recent trends in metropolitan/nonmetro‐politan migration. It demonstrates that highly educated nonmetropolitan youth are leading contemporary nonmetropolitan outmigration. Contrary to the clean break theory, this paper argues that economic incentives continue to be relevant to current nonmetropolitan/metropolitan migration patterns.     

CALL FOR PAPERS

In this article historical patterns and recent trends in black migration in the United States are examined. The purpose of the article is two‐fold: (1) to examine historical changes in the volume and rates of migration between the southern region and nonsouthern regions; and (2) to determine the relative impact of migration types on the South's changeover to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval.

The findings of this study indicate that the reversal of the historical pattern of net out‐migration of blacks from the southern region occurred two decades after the turnaround for the general population. The southern region changed from sizable net out‐migration for blacks during the period before 1970 to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval. The changeover was due to a substantial decrease in the number of both southern‐born and non‐southern‐born blacks leaving the South. There were also increases in the rate of in‐migration into the region among both return migrants and nonsouthern migrants. The single most important factor influencing the turnaround was a decrease in the number of southern‐born blacks migrating out of the region. This finding is contrary to much current speculation about the role of return migrants in influencing the South's changeover to net in‐migration for the black population.     

Population Redistribution Trends in Nonmetropolitan America, 2010 to 2021☆

Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.     

The Renewal of Population Loss in the Nonmetropolitan Great Plains

Abstract An analysis of population trends in 293 nonmetropolitan Great Plains counties from 1950 to 1990 reveals that the population turnaround of the 1970s has indeed ended. During the 1980s, 84 percent of these nonmetropolitan counties had total population declines, a proportion greater than any other decade studied. A majority of counties had natural population increase, but such increases were offset by net outmigration as 96 percent of the counties had such losses during the 1980s. The influence of the independent variables on population change shifted from decade to decade. The most important variable in producing positive population trends was the ability of the county to attract retirement migrants.     

Continuities in Size of Place Preferences in the United States, 1972–19921

Abstract The directions of net migration and population redistribution in the U.S. have switched from nonmetropolitan deconcentration during the 1970s, to metropolitan concentration during the 1980s, and back to deconcentration once again in the early 1990s. The complex causes of these distribution shifts are thought to involve both structural reconfigurations of economic activities that affect the location of opportunities and residential preferences that are tied more closely to amenities and quality of life considerations. This paper uses comparable data from three representative sample surveys of the U.S. population to update and extend earlier research on the preferential basis of redistribution trends. Our analysis does not support the view that shifts in the direction of residential preferences during 1972–1992 tend to coincide with shifts in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan net migration and population redistribution. Rather, a consistent finding across all three surveys is that most people prefer their current residence type, and those who do not are almost twice as likely to prefer lower rather than higher density settings. These findings support the importance of preferences to explanations of recent population trends, but these preferences are not in isolation from the economic contexts in which they occur.     

The structural correlates of metropolitan migration: 1970-1975

This study is concerned with the debate over the supremacy of organizational versus environmental models for explaining population change within the context of metropolitan-nonmetropolitan turnaround migration. A sample of U.S. metropolitan areas is classified by a migration typology that considers sign changes or consistencies in rates of net migration between the 1960s and 1970s. "Four categories result and organizational, environmental and technological data are analyzed utilizing ridge regression with interaction terms to ascertain whether structural differences among migration categories exist." The study shows that organizational factors are more relevant for urban areas experiencing in-migration, and environmental factors are more relevant for those experiencing out-migration.     

Determinants of 1980 to 1990 Net Migration in Texas Counties: The Role of Sustenance Specialization and Dominance in International Ecosystems

Abstract Patterns of 1980–1990 migration differ markedly from those of the 1970s but they have received little conceptual or empirical analysis because of limited data and because their diversity has resisted theoretical generalization. An expanded human ecological perspective incorporating international dimensions is hypothesized to explain differentials in migration during the 1980s. Counties with key functions which operate in international ecosystems in which the United States is dominant are hypothesized to control more resources and to have the highest net inmigration. Hypotheses are tested using regression analyses of 1980–1990 net migration for Texas' 254 counties. The results generally confirm that key functional activities were related to migration but less so in nonmetropolitan areas. Implications for rural development and for further research are discussed.     

Changing Economic Opportunities,Family Structure,and Poverty in Rural Areas1

Abstract Instrustrial restructuring in the 1980s ushered in a new pattern of growing economic diversity over geographic space. The objective of this study is to examine the extent and etiology of changing spatial inequality between and within metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas, as measured by increasing or decreasing county poverty rates. Results based on data from the 1980 and 1990 census summary tape files suggest several conclusions. First, poverty rates increased more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties during the 1980s; historical patterns of metro-nonmetro economic convergence slowed over the past decade. Second, poverty rates tended to decline in nonmetro counties with traditionally high rates of poverty, thus providing counter-evidence to arguments suggesting that the gap between traditionally poor and nonpoor nonmetro counties has widened. Third, spatial differences in poverty rates and relative increases in county poverty rates over the 1980s were most strongly associated with women's employment and headship status. The results raise questions about the extent to which traditional rural economic development strategies address the potentially deleterious economic effects of rising percentages of poor female-headed families.     

Changing Linkages Between Work and Poverty in Rural America1

Abstract The changing relationship between work and poverty in non-metropolitan (nonmetro) America is documented using data from the 1980 and 1990 March supplements of the Current Population Survey. Specifically, this paper assesses changing differentials in the proportion of poor people who are working; documents the rapid rise in poverty among nonmetro and metropolitan (metro) workers during the 1979—1989 period, especially among young adults and females; and provides evidence of growing inequality between metro and nonmetro workers, a pattern that cannot be explained by differences in work attachment, human capital, or job characteristics. The results imply that poverty is a persistent if not increasingly harsh reality for workers in rural America.     

The changing impact of sustenance organization activities on non-metropolitan net migration

The effects of the changing spatial distribution of the population in the United States are examined. "Hypotheses concerning the changing relationship of sustenance organization components and nonmetropolitan net migration rates between the 1960s and 1970s are tested. Multiple regression analysis reveals the following changes in the demographic impact of five types of economic activity from the 1960s to the 1970s: manufacturing--positive to insignificant; agriculture and mining--negative to positive; service--positive effect increases; and retail--insignificant for both periods." The author notes that "the introduction of settlement pattern characteristics as control variables does not change these relationships. The [R squared] for all the sustenance activity variables taken as a whole is 21 percent for 1960 and six percent for 1970, suggesting that alternatives to the traditional explanations of nonmetropolitan demographic change should be more fully developed."     

Socioeconomic Performance in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas during the 1980s

The socioeconomic gap between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas increased during the 1980s. We test three competing explanations for this trend during the 1980s: overdependence on manufacturing, especially in nonmetro labor markets, the emergence of producer services as a catalyst of socioeconomic growth, and federal spending. Using a model that is informed by a variety of perspectives in sociology and economic geography, and commuter zones (CZs) as spatial units of analysis, we estimate the effects of manufacturing concentration, producer service concentration, and federal spending on per capita income, per capita earnings, and private nonfarm employment growth during the 1983–1988 business cycle recovery. The OLS and interaction models show that all three factors help explain why metro areas outperformed nonmetro areas during this time period. The effects of producer service concentration, however, best fit with our expectations. Implications of our findings are discussed.     

Migration of Retirement‐Age Blacks to Nonmetropolitan Areas in the 1990s

Older blacks migrated to nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) communities in the 1990s to a degree not true of the past. Some of the nonmetro counties that attracted them are well‐known retirement areas also favored by other retirees, mostly whites. Two‐thirds of black retirement counties, however, are areas in the Old South that are not attracting other retirees at a substantial rate, if at all. Although the data indicate significant rates of retirement‐age blacks migrating to 85 nonmetro counties, most migration by older blacks is to metro destinations.     

Crime in Nonmetropolitan America: A National Accounting of Trends,Incidence Rates,and Idiosyncratic Vulnerabilities1

Abstract The prevalence and nature of crime in rural America have been given relatively little research attention. An overview of the trends, incidence rates, and particular vulnerabilities nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) residents have to criminal victimization compared with their metropolitan (metro) counterparts are provided through data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Results indicate that victimization rates for all locations generally have been declining since the peak rates witnessed in the mid- 1970s, with residents of metro central cities being the most susceptible to victimization, followed by other metro and nonmetro residents, respectively. Certain subgroups of nonmetro residents, however, are as susceptible as their counterparts in metro areas who reside outside central cities to particular types of victimization. Implications for policy are discussed.     

Changing Income Inequality in Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1980 to 1990*

Abstract Income inequality has been increasing across the United States, but little is known about changing income inequality in nonmetropolitan counties. Data from the 1980 and 1990 Summary Tape Files of the U.S. Census of Population and Housing are used to estimate ordinary least squares models of change in income inequality. Household income inequality increased in a smaller share of nonmetro than metro counties from 1980 to 1990, and increases in income inequality were influenced more strongly by economic restructuring in nonmetro than in metro counties. Other factors, such as change in household structure, demographic composition, and labor supply and job quality, were generally similar in affecting income inequality in nonmetro and metro counties. The greater importance of economic restructuring in nonmetro counties indicates the lesser diversity and smaller size of local economies, and their greater vulnerability to forces of economic restructuring.