Population Redistribution Trends in Nonmetropolitan America, 2010 to 2021☆

Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.     

Demographic Change in Nonmetropolitan America, 1980 to 19901

Abstract Between 1980 and 1990, the nonmetropolitan population grew by 3.7 percent. Natural increase accounted for the entire population gain, offsetting a small migration loss (1.7%). A significant net loss of young adults from nonmetropolitan areas was only partially offset by an influx of older adults. The net gain through natural increase was small by historical standards and natural decrease became more common. The demographic trends of the 1980s were neither a repeat of the turnaround of the 1970s nor a reversion to historical patterns. Rather, they straddled the trends of the two preceding periods. These findings provide the demographic groundwork for future theoretical development. The policy implications of such population redistribution and demographic compositional shifts also are considered.     

Emerging Rural Settlement Patterns and the Geographic Redistribution of America's New Immigrants*

Abstract This paper analyzes geographic patterns of population concentration and deconcentration among the foreign‐born population during the 1990–2000 period. A goal is to examine whether the foreign‐born population, including recent arrivals, are dispersing geographically from metro gateway cities into rural and other less densely populated parts of the country. The paper also evaluates the so‐called balkanization hypothesis, which is that immigration flows run counter‐cyclical to the redistribution trends of the native‐born population, while reinforcing spatial isolation and immigrant segregation. Data for U.S. counties or county equivalents come from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census (Summary Files 1, 3 and 4). Our results suggest that America's immigrant population is dispersing spatially. Immigrants are less concentrated today than in the past and they are less segregated from other population groups, including their own racial group and whites. However, changes over the past decade have been modest. The immigrant population, even in 2000, remained considerably more concentrated than the native‐born population. The empirical results provide little evidence of geographic balkanization.     

Post‐Socialist Restructuring and Population Redistribution in Hungary*

Abstract This research focuses on pathways by which national level macro‐social transformations are transmitted to local communities. Our case is Hungary where we examine the relationship between post‐socialist economic restructuring, widespread industrial dislocations, and urban‐rural migration. Using secondary data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) and survey data from a study of 49 villages in 4 distinct rural regions, we demonstrate that post‐socialist population deconcentration involved both suburbanization and net movement to villages, especially villages that are located relatively close to cities. Contrary to our expectations, movement to villages was from nearby settlements, not from large industrial centers. Moreover, migrants to villages were substantially better off than longer term village residents in terms of their human capital and attachment to the labor force. Consequently, post‐socialist population deconcentration is not contributing to rural poverty as feared by some scholars.     

Population deconcentration in Hungary during the post-socialist transformation

This paper investigates the patterns of population redistribution in contemporary Hungary to better understand the demographic articulations of post-socialist restructuring. We analyze published data for 1980–1997, and machine-readable municipal-level data for 1990–1997 to find that post-socialist restructuring coincides with pronounced population deconcentration after several decades of steady urbanization. While suburbanization accounts for much of this deconcentration, many of the more remote villages in the nation's rural periphery also experienced net in-migration. Our findings call into question the ways in which population deconcentration may be thought of as a social indicator, raise important empirical questions about the attractiveness of remote places as resettlement locations for economically marginal populations, and assert the relevance of demographic analysis for coming to more complete understandings of the effects and implications of post-socialist restructuring.     

The Great Recession and the Allure of New Immigrant Destinations in the United States

In the 1990s, the immigrant population in the United States dispersed to non‐traditional settlement locations (what have become known as “new immigrant destinations”). This paper examines whether the allure of new destinations persisted in the 2000s with a particular focus on the internal migration of the foreign‐born during the recent deep recessionary period and its aftermath. Three specific questions motivate the analysis. First, are immigrants, much like the U.S.‐born population, becoming less migratory within the country over time? Second, is immigrant dispersal from traditional gateways via internal migration continuing despite considerable economic contraction in many new destination metropolitan areas? Third, is immigration from aboard a substitute for what appears to be declining immigrant internal migration to new destinations? The findings reveal a close correlation between the declining internal migration propensity of the U.S.‐born and immigrants in the last two decades. We also observe parallels between the geographies of migration of native‐ and foreign‐born populations with both groups moving to similar metropolitan areas in the 1990s. This redistributive association, however, weakened in the subsequent decade as new destination metropolitan areas lost their appeal for both groups, especially immigrants. There is no evidence to suggest that immigration from abroad is substituting for the decline in immigrant redistribution through internal migration to new destinations. Across destination types, the relationship between immigration from abroad and the internal migration of the foreign‐born remained the same during and after the Great Recession as in the period immediately before it.     

Migration patterns of the elderly: the case of the American Jewish population

"This article examines the growing concentration of the elderly Jewish population of the U.S. in one metropolitan region of the Sun Belt. The principal data sources used are U.S. Census counts of the population with a Yiddish mother tongue or speaking Yiddish at home, as well as 1980 data on the population of Russian ancestry. The limitations of these measures are discussed and data from local community surveys also are presented. The data show that relocation of the elderly from the North, especially to South Florida, has been occurring since the 1950s and accelerated during the 1970s. The need for further study, which may document the migration patterns of elderly members of diverse religions and ethnic groups, is pointed out."     

The Impact of Economic Freedom and Personal Freedom on Net In-Migration in the U.S.: A State-Level Empirical Analysis, 2000 to 2010

Arguably, private enterprise flourishes under conditions of increased freedom. However, increases in economic freedom can sometimes impose costs on others (negative externalities and monopoly power being prominent examples). Nevertheless, on balance, it is typically expected that the greater the degree of economic freedom, the more successfully and efficiently markets perform and the greater the prosperity created through private enterprise. These net outcomes from greater freedom accelerate economic growth and development, which in turn creates opportunities for yet further success. From a different perspective, it can be argued that greater personal freedom promotes higher levels of utility for consumers in non-economic ways. Accordingly, the present study empirically investigates whether the prospects of greater economic freedom and/or greater personal freedom in any given state vis-à-vis other states act(s) to induce a greater net influx of migrants. This empirical study of internal U.S. migration over the study period from 2000 to 2010 finds clear evidence that migrants prefer to move to those states with greater economic freedom on the one hand and greater personal freedom on the other hand.     

ESTIMATING NET INTERRACIAL MOBILITY IN THE UNITED STATES: A RESIDUAL METHODS APPROACH

This paper presents a residual methods approach to identifying social mobility across race/ethnic categories. In traditional demographic accounting models, population growth is limited to changes in natural increase and migration. Other sources of population change are absorbed by the model residual and can be estimated only indirectly. While these residual estimates have been used to illuminate a number of elusive demographic processes, there has been little effort to incorporate shifts in racial identification into formal accounts of population change. In light of growing evidence that a number of Americans view race/ethnic identities as a personal choice, not as a fixed characteristic, mobility across racial categories may play important roles in the growth of race/ethnic subpopulations and changes to the composition of the United States. To examine this potential, we derive a reduced-form population balancing equation that treats fertility and international migration as given and estimates survival from period life table data. After subtracting out national increase and net international migration and adjusting for changes in racial measurement and census coverage, we argue that the remaining error of closure provides a reasonable estimate of net interracial mobility among the native born. Using recent U.S. Census and ACS microdata, we illustrate the impact that identity shifts may have had on the growth of race/ethnic subpopulations in the past quarter century. Findings suggest a small drift from the non-Hispanic white population into race/ethnic minority groups, though the pattern varies by age and between time periods.     

Pathways to El Norte: origins, destinations, and characteristics of Mexican migrants to the United States

The geography Mexican migration to the U.S. has experienced deep transformations in both its origin composition and the destinations chosen by migrants. To date, however, we know little about how shifting migrant origins and destinations may be linked to each another geographically and, ultimately, structurally as relatively similar brands of economic restructuring have been posited to drive the shifts in origins and destinations. In this paper, we describe how old and new migrant networks have combined to fuel the well-documented geographic expansion of Mexican migration. We use data from the 2006 Mexican National Survey of Population Dynamics, a nationally representative survey that for the first time collected information on U.S. state of destination for all household members who had been to the U.S. during the 5 years prior to the survey. We find that the growth in immigration to southern and eastern states is disproportionately fueled by undocumented migration from non-traditional origin regions located in Central and Southeastern Mexico and from rural areas in particular. We argue that economic restructuring in the U.S. and Mexico had profound consequences not only for the magnitude but also for the geography of Mexican migration, opening up new region-to-region flows.     

How does inequality aversion affect inequality and redistribution?

We investigate the effects of inequality aversion on equilibrium labor supply, tax revenue, income inequality, and median voter outcomes in a society where agents have heterogeneous skill levels. These outcomes are compared to those which result from the behavior of selfish agents. A variant of Fehr-Schmidt preferences is employed that allows the externality from agents who are “ahead” to differ in magnitude from the externality from those who are “behind” in the income distribution. We find first, that inequality-averse preferences yield distributional outcomes that are analogous to tax-transfer schemes with selfish agents, and may either increase or decrease average consumption. Second, in a society of inequality-averse agents, a linear income tax can be welfare-enhancing. Third, inequality-averse preferences can lead to less redistribution at any given tax, with low-wage agents receiving smaller net subsidies and/or high-wage individuals paying less in net taxes. Finally, an inequality-averse median voter may prefer higher redistribution even if it means less utility from own consumption and leisure.     

State and Regional Policy Implications of Elderly Migration

This paper uses the 1980 Census data to estimate the size of the economic transfers associated with the 1985 to 1990 interregional migration of older persons. Total economic transfers are estimated by multiplying interregional migration flows of older persons by the average income of older persons in each migration stream. Assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for elderly migrants and an expenditure multiplier of 2, the total redistribution of income as a result of 1985 to 1990 elderly migration is estimated to be over $600 billion. The South Atlantic and Mountain regions are the recipients of the largest positive net transfers; the East North Central and West North Central regions have the largest negative net transfers.     

State and regional policy implications of elderly migration

This paper uses the 1980 Census data to estimate the size of the economic transfers associated with the 1985 to 1990 interregional migration of older persons. Total economic transfers are estimated by multiplying interregional migration flows of older persons by the average income of older persons in each migration stream. Assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for elderly migrants and an expenditure multiplier of 2, the total redistribution of income as a result of 1985 to 1990 elderly migration is estimated to be over $600 billion. The South Atlantic and Mountain regions are the recipients of the largest positive net transfers; the East North Central and West North Central regions have the largest negative net transfers.     

Mobility of the Foreign‐Born Population in the United States, 1995–2000: The Role of Gateway States

This study uses the 2000 PUMS to examine mobility among the foreign‐born population and the role of the gateway states. Between 1995 and 2000, net domestic migration of the foreign‐born population to gateway states was negative. Yet the rate of out‐migration from gateway states was lower than that from non‐gateway states. Overall, the findings do not support the idea that gateway states are “losing their hold” on their foreign‐born population. Yet trends in international and domestic migration are increasing the foreign‐born population of non‐gateway states relative to gateway states, and reducing differences in their characteristics.     

Social Security in Italy

The United States is confronting two simultaneous demographic shifts with profound implications for public policy: population aging and increasing diversity. These changes are accelerating during a dramatic economic downturn, placing entitlement reform prominently on the national policy agenda. Using decennial census data from 2000, this paper examines the nexus of these trends by examining characteristics of Latino baby boomers. In the census data, Latinos constituted 10% of the 80 million boomers; roughly one-third of Latino boomers (37%) were born in the United States or abroad to a U.S. parent; 6% were born in a U.S. territory; 21% were naturalized citizens; and 36% were noncitizens. Compared to non-Latinos, Latino baby boomers had lower levels of education, home ownership, and investment income and higher rates of material hardship and poverty; however, there was considerable variation based on citizenship status. A better understanding of Latino baby boomers will help policy makers anticipate the retirement needs of baby boomers as the United States prepares for the aging of a racially and ethnically diverse population.     

Local Economic Opportunity and the Competing Risks of Internal and U.S. Migration in Zacatecas,Mexico1

This article uses a competing risks model to examine the effects of origin economic conditions on the probability of temporary U.S. and internal labor migration in the Mexican state of Zacatecas. We measure origin economic conditions with municipal‐level indices of employment and small‐scale investment opportunities that we constructed from population and economic census data. The results of our analysis demonstrate the important influence of local employment and investment opportunities on migration outcomes. Controlling for the prior municipal rate of U.S. return migration and other factors, positive opportunities for small‐scale investment are associated with a higher risk of temporary migration to the United States. This result is consistent with investment oriented migration predicted by the new economics of labor migration theory. We also find comparable social network effects for both internal and U.S. migration. Having social ties to active migrants of one type (U.S. or internal), encourages migration of the same type and discourages migration of the other type.     

Social services for sexual minority youth: Preferences for what,where, and how services are delivered

As part of an internet-based study to investigate experiences of sexual minority youth in the U.S., 544 youth, ages 14–19, were surveyed about their need for services, where they preferred to receive these services, and their preferred method of service delivery. The survey was anonymous and youth were recruited from LGBTQ-specific listservs and venues as well as through social networking sites as a way of reaching youth often not represented in LGBTQ surveys. Youth highly endorsed many types of services, settings, and modes of delivery. Some subgroup differences emerged. Transgender youth and those uncertain about their gender identity expressed stronger interest than others in services to address stress, family issues, and self-defense, and in receiving support and guidance from LGBTQ adults. Few differences in service preferences along demographic lines such as race/ethnicity emerged; however, African American youth were more likely than others to prefer services offered in a place of worship. Contrary to predictions, geographic and community variables were not related to service type, delivery format, or location preferences.     

CALL FOR PAPERS

In this article historical patterns and recent trends in black migration in the United States are examined. The purpose of the article is two‐fold: (1) to examine historical changes in the volume and rates of migration between the southern region and nonsouthern regions; and (2) to determine the relative impact of migration types on the South's changeover to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval.

The findings of this study indicate that the reversal of the historical pattern of net out‐migration of blacks from the southern region occurred two decades after the turnaround for the general population. The southern region changed from sizable net out‐migration for blacks during the period before 1970 to net in‐migration during the 1975–1980 migration interval. The changeover was due to a substantial decrease in the number of both southern‐born and non‐southern‐born blacks leaving the South. There were also increases in the rate of in‐migration into the region among both return migrants and nonsouthern migrants. The single most important factor influencing the turnaround was a decrease in the number of southern‐born blacks migrating out of the region. This finding is contrary to much current speculation about the role of return migrants in influencing the South's changeover to net in‐migration for the black population.     

Wealth in Middle and Old Age in Mexico: The Role of International Migration1

This article examines the impact that past migration to the U.S. has on the current economic well‐being of individuals in middle or old age who have returned to Mexico. A priori, the net effect of U.S. migration on wealth among return migrants is difficult to predict; there are counteracting factors that can affect wealth positively or negatively. Using data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study 2001 and correcting for selection factors, the long‐term effect of U.S. migration for return migrants was found consistently positive in terms of their accumulated personal wealth at middle and old age. This article speculates about the possible mechanisms that can explain this apparent advantage.     

Asian Americans and Voting Participation: Comparing Racial and Ethnic Differences in Recent U.S. Elections

This research assesses the significance of race and ethnicity in the participation of Asian Americans in recent U.S. elections. It reviews the major characteristics of the nonwhite, multiethnic population in recent census surveys and discusses the necessity for voting behavior research to address effects of international migration on eligibility issues in voting participation. Results from analyzing U.S. Current Population Survey Voter Supplement files, 1994–2000, indicate that Asian Americans' apparent deficit in voting participation among voting‐age persons can be reduced, removed, or even reversed when restricting analyses only to eligible persons. Multivariate analyses controlling for a set of institutional, contextual, and individual factors show that being Asian and foreign born may have the net effect of increasing voting registration, while being U.S. born and Asian may have the contrary effect, compared to non‐Hispanic whites of comparable background. Nativity is not significant in impacting turnout among registered Asians as a whole, but U.S.‐born Asians are less likely to turn out compared to their white counterparts. Among other findings, being foreign born may enhance the registration likelihood for Chinese, Korean, and Asian Indian American citizens and the turnout likelihood of registered Korean Americans.