The calibration and cross-modal validation of ratio scales of political opinion in survey research

The aims of this paper are twofold: first, to set the ratio scaling of opinion in perspective by reviewing a series of laboratory and field experiments designed to build and validate ratio scales of political opinion; and second, to report in detail on the development of calibration procedures designed to obtain proportional judgments from respondents in a national survey.Paralleling explicitly a psychophysical paradigm established for the scaling of physical continua, these studies demonstrate that (1) the paradigm can be adapted to the scaling of sociopolitical opinions; (2) two measures suitable for use in surveys-magnitude estimation and line production-satisfy established psychophysical criteria for valid measures of response; (3) survey respondents can and do make reliable ratio estimates of strength of opinion; (4) scales measuring strength of political support, which are derived from the magnitude and line estimates of survey respondents, match closely the support scales derived in laboratory and field tests using such physical response modalities as handgrip and sound pressure; and (5) these calibration procedures can be incorporated in national opinion surveys.These results, especially the successful move from the laboratory to a conventional survey setting, provide social and behavioral scientists with a technique for generating response data that meet stringent measurement requirements. The calibration procedures described constitute a social metric that will enable researchers to test functional hypotheses in a more rigorous manner than is possible employing alternative scaling procedures.     

Detecting Discrimination: Analyzing Racial Disparities in Public Contracting

InCity of Richmond v. J. A. Croson Co.(1989), the Supreme Court established strict scrutiny as the standard applicable to affirmative action programs which set aside quotas of public contracts for minority-owned businesses, andAderand v. Pena(1995) extended the strict scrutiny standard to federal programs. Although the requirements of these decisions clearly require multivariate statistical analysis, most “disparity studies” have used a univariate comparison between the expected and the observed shares of contracts going to minority-owned firms. We examine four statistical methods—ordinary least square multiple regression, logit and tobit models, and a multivariate procedure for comparing expected and observed outcomes. Because no data are presently available at the level of specificity required byCroson,we constructed synthetic data sets to represent typical variations among large U.S. cities. Applying the statistical methods to each data set allows evaluation of the extent to which each method is able to both remove spurious and detect valid estimates of racial disparity when relevant control variables are added. Findings: (a) All four models removed apparent disparities which, although significant in univariate analysis, were known to be spurious. (b) Tobit and logit models, whose underlying assumptions better fit the nature of public contracting data, provided more accurate and more sensitive estimates than OLS regression. (c) Comparison of expected and observed outcomes within categories of control variables yielded results very similar to logit and tobit models and, because of the nature of the comparison specified inCroson,produced slightly more sensitive probability estimates.     

The probability of premarital intercourse

Data on sexual behavior collected retrospectively in a national probability sample survey of females aged 15–19 make it possible, using life table techniques, to compute the probability of having intercourse prior to marriage. Estimates are provided for whites and blacks, for the synthetic cohort based on all five ages combined, and separately for each cohort, i.e., those currently aged 15, aged 16, etc. In addition, minimum and maximum estimates, based on different assumptions regarding ever married females, are also included.     

Underestimating busyness: Indications of nonresponse bias due to work-family conflict and time pressure

International research shows that both work-family conflict and time pressure are increasing in Western societies. With these increased pressures, precisely those people who are combining work and family obligations may be missing from survey estimates. This study investigates whether the measurement of work-family conflict (WFC) and time pressure is influenced by nonresponse bias. Using the Flemish “Work, Family and Time use in Flanders”-survey and the Basic Question survey for nonrespondents of this survey, we investigate whether nonrespondents score higher on subjective and objective indicators of WFC and time pressure than respondents. Results show that nonrespondents are indeed those sample units who experience significantly more WFC and time pressure, demonstrating that WFC and time pressure related nonresponse biases exist. Implications and suggestions to reduce bias in data collections are discussed.     

How far do children move? Spatial distances after leaving the parental home

This research used geocoded data from 11 waves (2000-2010) of the German Socio-economic Panel Study to investigate the spatial distances of young adults’ initial move-outs (N = 2113) from their parents’ homes. Linear regression models predicted moving distances by factors at individual, family, household, and community level. Overall, home leavers moved across very small distances with a median value of less than 10 km. Greater distances were found for well-educated and childless home leavers who moved out at relatively young ages from high-income households located in less-urbanized regions. In line with developmental models of migration, young adults stayed closer if the parental household was still located at their place of childhood. We conclude that considering the spatial distance of move-outs may advance our understanding of individual passages to adulthood and intergenerational relations across the life course.     

金融集聚促进产业结构升级的实证研究 ——以安徽省为例

基于2005-2016年安徽省金融业和产业结构数据，利用区位熵指数测度安徽省金融集聚水平，实证检验安徽省分行业金融集聚对产业结构升级的影响效应。结果表明：长期中，银行业集聚表现出积极的推动作用，而证券业集聚虽有一定的推动作用，但作用力度不明显，保险业集聚则表现出抑制效应。短期中，银行业和证券业集聚也存在着积极作用，但没有长期效果显著，而保险业仍表现出一定的抑制作用。     

走进"围城"的独生子女:概念、规模与质疑

本文首先从概念上对与第一代独生子女婚烟有关的现象进行了区分。提出用“已婚独生子女”、“双独夫妻家庭”等概念来分别对相关现象进行界定。其次,依据作者2004年对全国12个城市1786名在职青年的抽样调查结果,从宏观上分析了成年的、已婚的、有子女的独生子女的可能分布和“双独”、“单独”、“双非”家庭的大致比例。从而为认识这一现象的规模和范围提供了经验的基础。最后,论文对现有研究的结果和结论提出了质疑。     

Effects of family structure on the risk of first premarital birth in the presence of correlated unmeasured family effects

This paper assesses the effects of family structure on the risk of a first premarital birth for a sample of women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The sample reflects the family structure and family formation experiences of a cohort of women who were at risk of out-of-wedlock childbearing during the 1980s and early 1990s. We focus on assessing the effects of family structure in the presence of correlated unmeasured family effects, which are identified through the use of sibling data. The availability of multiple sibling respondents per family permits identification of family-level unobserved heterogeneity in a multi-level context of individuals nested within families. Our models account for family-specific sources of unobserved heterogeneity in the processes generating family structure and nonmarital childbearing, and provide estimates of the association between these sources of unobserved heterogeneity along with the effects of family structure and other covariates. We find that accounting for the correlation between unobserved family-level effects in processes generating family structure and first premarital birth leads to attenuated estimates of the effects family structure on the risk of first premarital birth. This suggests that other family-level factors may play a mediating role in generating both family structure and nonmarital childbearing.     

河北省第三产业发展的区位熵评价——基于第一次经济普查资料的实证分析

本文基于2005年第一次全国经济普查数据,利用产业区位熵评价方法,对河北省第三产业中不同产业的发展强度予以探讨,揭示出其主要优势和劣势产业,并进而提出了相应的对策建议。     

Social isolation,survey nonresponse,and nonresponse bias: An empirical evaluation using social network data within an organization

Survey researchers have long hypothesized that social isolation negatively affects the probability of survey participation and biases survey estimates. Previous research, however, has relied on proxy measures of isolation, such as being a marginalized group member within a population. We re-examine the relationship between social isolation and survey participation using direct measures of social isolation derived from social network data; specifically, instrumental research and expressive friendship connections among faculty within academic departments. Using a reconceptualization of social isolation, we find that social network isolation is negatively associated with unit response. Among women (a numerical minority group within the organization), we further find that social group isolation (i.e., lacking instrumental network connections to men, the majority group in the organization) is negatively associated with survey participation. Finally, we show that some survey estimates are systematically biased due to nonparticipation from socially isolated people.     

On forming variable set composites to summarize a block recursive model

A method, described by Coleman, for forming composite variables and estimating effects in block recursive models is explicated. It is shown that two sets of estimates need to be distinguished. Coleman's approach utilizes a mixture of the two sets and is useful for a specific application. For more general purposes one set of estimates is preferred to the other; empirical examples are given.     

Individual variations in crime-related decisions

Sociological models of individual deterrence have generally assumed that there is a single decision-making strategy related to criminal behavior that may be mediated by certain social contexts. In this paper we argue that this process is also conditional on the psychological characteristics of the individual. Based on a panel study of early adolescence, evidence is presented that the effects of the severity of punishment and the perceptions of the moral “wrongness” of an act are contingent on the self-esteem of the individual. A method is proposed that enables a researcher to examine sources of individual variation within traditional, nonexperimental survey data sets.     

关于非英语专业学生英语学习动机的调查

随着社会生活和经济活动的全球化,掌握一门外语已成为现代公民必备的基本素养之一,而学习动机在很大程度上影响学习者对英语的学习。本文以相关的学习动机研究为依据,对工科院校非英语专业的245名学生进行了英语学习动机的调查与分析,进而提出一些相关建议,旨在激发和培养学生学习英语的动机,提高他们英语学习的积极性和有效性。     

Diversity preferences among employees and ethnoracial workplace segregation

Ethno-racial workplace segregation increases already existing ethno-racial inequality. While previous research has identified discriminatory employers as drivers of workplace segregation, this study addresses the role of the employees. Sociological and social psychological theory suggest that people prefer to surround themselves with people who positively confirm their social identity or who contribute with higher group status. Through web-based surveys, we measure employee attitudes and preferences concerning ethno-racial workplace diversity, to what extent they differ by ethnicity/race, and if they contain intersectional patterns. Thereafter, we use simulation models to analyze the consequences for workplace segregation that these preferences would have, if realized.The main survey results showed that all ethno-racial groups favored their own in-group as colleagues, especially European Americans. As a secondary choice, the respondents preferred the out-group with the highest labor market status. Intersectional patterns were identified, as minority women were preferred as colleagues over minority men. Our simulation model, based on the results of two surveys on stated vs. indirectly revealed preferences, showed that employee preferences were at best not diverse enough to desegregate workplaces. When based on the most common preferences (i.e. excluding a few outliers), the simulations even suggested that these preferences can cause segregation. We relate these findings to Schelling's model of segregation.     

Should we trust survey data? Assessing response simplification and data fabrication

While many factors, such as unit- and item nonresponse, threaten data quality, we focus on data contamination that arises primarily from task simplification processes. We argue that such processes can occur at two levels. First, respondents themselves may engage in various response strategies that minimize their time and effort in completing the survey. Second, interviewers and other employees of the research institute might take various shortcuts to reduce their time and/or to fulfill the requirements of their contracts; in the simplest form this can be done via copy-and-paste procedures.This paper examines the cross-national quality of the reports from principals of schools participating in the 2009 PISA. We introduce two measures of data quality to document that extreme response simplification characterizes the behavior of substantial numbers of school principals in numerous countries. Additionally, we discovered strong evidence of data fabrication in several countries.     

The quality and comparability of child care data in U.S. surveys

This paper examines the quality and comparability of child care data obtained from eight waves of data from four nationally representative data sources: the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1986 and 1988), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (1986, 1987, 1988, and 1990), the National Child Care Survey, and the National Survey of Families and Households. We examine whether different study designs and survey techniques for asking questions about child care produce similar results on both the levels and determinants of child care. We identified four main sources of difference in the data sets that could impact the quality and comparability of child care research: when the interview is conducted; screening questions used to determine who is asked about child care; the population of parents and children represented in the survey; and the way child care questions are asked. Our findings indicate that summer interviews and screening on mother's work status produce the largest differences in the levels and effects of child care across these studies. Even after removing the effects of summer interviews and screening questions, however, substantial differences exist across the studies.     

Looking for homogeneous groups of respondents and nonrespondents using latent class analysis

Concerns about decreasing response rates have led to many nonresponse studies. Unfortunately, usually only a limited amount of data is available on nonrespondents. Linking administrative data makes information available on all the sampled units including nonrespondents. Statistics Netherlands has constructed a database in which several administrative records and several surveys are connected. In this explorative study we use this dataset to look for homogenous groups of respondents and nonrespondents in survey research using latent class cluster analysis. Latent class techniques can provide insight into the problem of selective nonresponse and currently under-represented societal groups. We identify four different latent classes in a recent Dutch survey and replicate the findings for the same survey conducted 4 years later. Two of the types of sampled units have above-average response rates and the other two have below-average response rates. We also evaluate various latent class models with other response outcomes to gain insight into the contact and cooperation process.     

Measuring multiple discrimination through a survey-based methodology

This paper focuses on the concept of multiple discrimination and its measurement through survey methods. The study was designed as a quasi-experimental comparison of survey mode effects on the quality of discrimination measurement: the traditional ‘face-to-face’ survey, the conventional self-completed mode and CAWI (finally deleted due to its non-comparability). Consistent with our hypothesis, some support was obtained for the social desirability bias and survey mode effects: 1) self-administration of questionnaires favours the declaration of discriminatory attitudes and personal experiences of discrimination; 2) the effect of privacy is greater in direct indicators of discriminatory attitudes; 3) perceptions and experiences of discrimination are more frequently reported by highly educated respondents. Nevertheless, contrary to our expectations, less educated respondents are also affected by survey mode and continue to be underrepresented in self-completed methods. The current research aims to serve as a basis for further research in this area.     

Cross-national variation in the social origins and religious consequences of religious non-affiliation

I argue that the social implications of religious non-affiliation vary across cultural contexts, leading to differences across nations in both who is likely to be unaffiliated and the religious consequences of such non-affiliation. I test these propositions by examining cross-national variation in associations with non-affiliation using multilevel models and cross-sectional survey data from almost 70,000 respondents in 52 nations. The results indicate that: 1) both individual characteristics (gender, age, and marital status) and nation-level attributes (GDP, communism, and regulation of religion) strongly predict religious non-affiliation; 2) differences in non-affiliation by individual-level attributes—women vs. men, old vs. young, and married vs. single—are greatest in nations with low levels of religious regulation and high levels of economic development; and 3) the effect of religious non-affiliation on religiosity varies considerably by the political and religious context, and to a lesser extent by the level of economic development in each nation. These results highlight cultural variation in what it means to be religiously unaffiliated.     

我国电信业增速低于GDP增速原因

2007年开始,我国的电信业收入增速首次低于GDP增速,2008年,二者增幅差进一步拉大。文章分析了我国电信业运行的特征和规律。在统筹考虑各自发展水平与发展阶段及增长的不同驱动机制的基础上,研究总结了出现这一现象的本质原因,对未来二者的关系进行了判断。