Inferring Directional Migration Propensities from the Migration Propensities of Infants in the United States

Beginning with the 2010 decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau plans to drop its long-form questionnaire and to replace it with the American Community Survey (ACS). The resulting absence of the larger sample provided by the census count will complicate the measurement and analysis of internal migration flows. In addition, the strategy of averaging accumulated samples over time will mix changing migration patterns. The migration question will refer to a one-year time interval instead of the five-year interval used in the censuses between 1960 and 2000, complicating historical comparisons and the production of multiregional projections based on five-year age groups. Consequently, students of territorial mobility increasingly will find it necessary to complement or augment possibly inadequate data collected on migration with estimates obtained by means of “indirect estimation.” A method is presented that allows one to infer age-specific directional migration propensities at the regional level from birthplace-specific infant population data, which approximates infant migration propensities, and from these infers the migration propensities of all other ages. The method is applied to at the nine-division spatial scale.     

The Consequences of Migration to the United States for Short-Term Changes in the Health of Mexican Immigrants

Although many studies have attempted to examine the consequences of Mexico-U.S. migration for Mexican immigrants’ health, few have had adequate data to generate the appropriate comparisons. In this article, we use data from two waves of the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS) to compare the health of current migrants from Mexico with those of earlier migrants and nonmigrants. Because the longitudinal data permit us to examine short-term changes in health status subsequent to the baseline survey for current migrants and for Mexican residents, as well as to control for the potential health selectivity of migrants, the results provide a clearer picture of the consequences of immigration for Mexican migrant health than have previous studies. Our findings demonstrate that current migrants are more likely to experience recent changes in health status—both improvements and declines—than either earlier migrants or nonmigrants. The net effect, however, is a decline in health for current migrants: compared with never migrants, the health of current migrants is much more likely to have declined in the year or two since migration and not significantly more likely to have improved. Thus, it appears that the migration process itself and/or the experiences of the immediate post-migration period detrimentally affect Mexican immigrants’ health.     

The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country's population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This "sending-country birth cohort" method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.     

Changes in Trip Duration for Mexican Immigrants to the United States

Using the Mexican Migration Project sample, this paper explores the patterns of trip duration for Mexican immigrants to the United States and the reasons for the patterns observed. I found that the most important factors leading to changes in trip duration are US immigration policy, the conditions of the Mexican economy, and the development of social networks. It appears that the legalization of many immigrants after passage of the Immigration Reform and Control Act encouraged short-term migration, but the build-up at the US-Mexico border may have changed this pattern leading to longer duration in the United States. Furthermore, changes in the exchange rate, a devaluation of the peso relative to the dollar, for example, leads to more return migration, as immigrants are able to get more value for his dollars in Mexico. On the other hand, an expansion of networks and resources for immigrants in the United States leads to longer duration in the United States.     

生态移民与西北地区城镇化的经济学分析

本文在西方人口移民理论的基础上,分析了生态移民与城镇化的内在关联性,着重探讨了异地生态移民当中,生态移民与城镇化出现的一些问题,并就这些问题提出了相应的建议。     

Two Decades of Negative Educational Selectivity of Mexican Migrants to the United States

Immigration is commonly considered to be selective of more educated individuals. Previous US studies comparing the educational attainment of Mexican immigrants in the United States to that of the Mexican resident population support this characterization. Upward educational‐attainment biases in both coverage and measurement, however, may be substantial in US data sources. Moreover, differences in educational attainment by place size are very large within Mexico, and US data sources provide no information on immigrants' places of origin within Mexico. To address these problems, we use multiple sources of nationally representative Mexican survey data to re‐evaluate the educational selectivity of working‐age Mexican migrants to the United States over the 1990s and 2000s. We document disproportionately rural and small‐urban‐area origins of Mexican migrants and a steep positive gradient of educational attainment by place size. We show that together these conditions induced strongly negative educational selection of Mexican migrants throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We interpret this finding as consistent with low returns to education among unauthorized migrants and few opportunities for authorized migration.     

近代西北自然灾害与人口变迁——自然灾害与近代西北社会研究

以往关于人口历史的研究,多注重战争等人为因素对人口下降造成的直接影响,而忽视了天灾在人口的变化中起到的作用。综现西北近代百年历史,自然灾害给西北地区带来的第一恶果即严重的人口问题。造成人口的大量死亡和迁徒。研究西北自然灾害与人口问题的关系是透视西北近代社会的重要窗口。为我们了解西北近代史提供了重要视角。     

The Spatial Distribution of Quality of Life in the United States and Interstate Migration, 1965–1970 and 1985–1990

This study applies a relatively new method called ‘co-plot’ to examine the relationships between the 48 contiguous states of the United States and selected indicators of quality of life in 1970 and 1990, and how these characteristics coincide with five-year interstate migration rates. The findings show an overall process of polarization of quality of life throughout the country. Strong similarity was found between states of a given division or region. The states which composed New England, the Middle Atlantic and the Pacific divisions are located in the strong sector of the socio-economic space. The direction of migration is toward states of the more external belts of the country. In the second part, multiple regression analysis was applied revealing a strong effect of economic incentives on migration; over time; migration turns into a widespread phenomenon among different socio-economic groups, with income becoming less significant as a predictor of interstate migration.     

Undocumented Mexican immigrants and the earnings of other workers in the United States

This article examines the effects of undocumented Mexican immigrants on the earnings of other workers in geographical labor markets in the Southwest. The number of undocumented Mexicans included in the 1980 census in southwestern SMSAs is estimated. We then estimate the parameters of three specifications of a generalized Leontief production function with various demographic groups as substitutable factors. The statistically significant effects of undocumented Mexicans on the earnings of other groups are positive, but of slight magnitude. Legal immigrants' effects on native white earnings, however, are small and negative. The results are consistent with the possibility that undocumented Mexican immigrants' jobs complement those of other workers. The implications for public policy concerns about the effects of illegal Mexican immigration are discussed.     

Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States

Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.     

Transnationalism and Development: Mexican and Chinese Immigrant Organizations in the United States

The literature on development in economics and sociology has tended to focus on capital flows, investments, and, more recently, institutions as key causal factors. International migration, when discussed, is relegated to the status of a symptom of underdevelopment and even a factor contributing to it. The more recent literature on migrant remittances has partially reversed this view by documenting large hard currency transfers made by expatriates to their home countries. This changed approach to migration and development does not go far enough because it does not take into account the organized efforts of immigrant communities themselves. Nor does it consider important developmental synergies produced by the rising interactions between immigrant organizations and sending‐country governments. Using data from a recently completed comparative study, we document these processes for two major countries of out‐migration—Mexico and China. The study compiled inventories of migrant organizations from both countries in the United States, interviewed leaders of the major ones, and complemented these data with interviews with officials and community leaders in each sending country. Profiles of these transnational ties were constructed, exemplifying their increasing density and developmental impact at the local and national levels. Theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Simulating the Effects of Acculturation and Return Migration on the Maternal and Infant Health of Mexican Immigrants in the United States: A Research Note

A significant body of research on minority health shows that although Latino immigrants experience unexpectedly favorable outcomes in maternal and infant health, this advantage deteriorates with increased time of residence in the United States. This study evaluates the underlying assumptions of two competing hypotheses that explain this paradox. The first hypothesis attributes this deterioration to possible negative effects of acculturation and behavioral adjustments made by immigrants while living in the United States, and the second hypothesis attributes this deterioration to the mechanism of selective return migration. Hypothetical probabilistic models are simulated for assessing the relationship between duration and birth outcomes based on the assumptions of these two hypotheses. The results are compared with the empirical research on the maternal and infant health of first-generation, Mexican-origin immigrant women in the United States. The analysis provides evidence that a curvilinear pattern of duration and birth outcomes can be explained by the joint effects of both acculturation and selective return migration in which the former affects health status over the longer durations, and the latter affects health status at shorter durations.     

Migradollars: The remittances and savings of Mexican migrants to the USA

In this article, we use new data from 22 communities to estimate the total flow of dollars back into Mexico as a result of migration to the United States. Our estimates include remittances sent while working abroad and money brought back on return trips; they incorporate transfers by temporary as well as permanent US workers; they include money transferred by legal as well as illegal migrants; and they include funds sent or brought by household heads as well as other family members. We estimate that US$ 24 million in migradollars flowed into the sample communities during the survey year. In some places, the flow of US money equalled or exceeded the value of locally earned income. When generalized to all of Western Mexico, our sample suggests a regional flow of US$ 1.5 billion; and when our data are inserted into an estimation model developed earlier by Lozano Ascencio, we estimate the total flow at US$ 2 billion for Mexico as a whole. Although most of this money was spent on consumption, investments in productive activities were significant, and directly or indirectly, we conclude that migradollars play an extremely important role in Mexican economic production.This article is based on a paper, presented at the University of Chicago, 8 October 1993.     

美国西部开发中的人口迁移与城镇化及其借鉴

美国西部开发的历史，也是一个人口不断向西迁移的历史。西部形成了大量的城市，建立了自己的特色产业，人口流动在美国西部开发中起到了重要的促进作用。美国西部开发中的人口西进运动和城镇化值得中国西部开发借鉴。在中国西部开发中，要调整西部城镇发展的畸形结构，实施以大都市的扩展和县城的提升为核心的二元城镇化发展战略。     

International Migration and Educational Assortative Mating in Mexico and the United States

This paper examines the relationship between migration and marriage by describing how the distributions of marital statuses and assortative mating patterns vary by individual and community experiences of migration. In Mexico, migrants and those living in areas with high levels of out-migration are more likely to be in heterogamous unions. This is because migration increases the relative attractiveness of single return migrants while disproportionately reducing the number of marriageable men in local marriage markets. In the United States, the odds of homogamy are lower for migrants compared with nonmigrants; however, they do not vary depending on the volume of migration in communities. Migrants are more likely than nonmigrants to “marry up” educationally because the relatively small size of this group compels them to expand their pool of potential spouses to include nonmigrants, who tend to be better educated than they are. Among migrants, the odds of marrying outside of one’s education group increase the most among the least educated. In Mexican communities with high rates of out-migration, the odds of marrying outside of one’s education group are highest among those with the highest level of education. These findings suggest that migration disrupts preferences and opportunities for homogamy by changing social arrangements and normative climates.     

70年代以来美国国内人口迁移态势与成因分析

美国人口密度相对较小 ,自然增长缓慢 ,机械变动大 ,外来人口补充了其劳动力资源。 90年代以来 ,美国国内的人口迁移呈下降趋势 ,迁移规律表现为 :1 向西部、向南部向阳光地带流动 ;2 向大都市区流动 ;3 由城市向市郊转移 ,向乡间转移。其迁移规律表现为 :短距离迁移者多 ,租房户迁移多 ,2 0 - 30岁的年轻人迁移者多。形成这一态势的原因有三 :市场结构性的变化、经济利益的驱动和文化生态因素     

A family affair: Evidence of chain migration during the mass emigration from the county of Halland in Sweden to the United States in the 1890s

This paper examines the influence of individual and household factors on an individual’s propensity to emigrate from Halland, a region in south-west Sweden, to the United States during the era of mass migration in the late nineteenth century. The study has a case–control design, using individual-level longitudinal data for a group of emigrants (cases) and a group of non-emigrants (controls). Results indicate the importance of a family’s emigration history; individuals whose relatives had previously moved to the United States were more likely to emigrate themselves. In addition, the results also show how this impact varied between groups and how other factors relating to the individual’s life situation affected the migration decision. Thus, this paper shows how chain migration and migration networks play important roles during times of mass migration.     

西北地区贫困人口问题研究

长期以来,西北地区贫困人口呈现出总量比例高、生态贫困问题严重、贫困人口与少数民族人口重合性高等几大特点。生态环境恶劣、人口数量超过自然资源环境承载能力、生产经营方式落后、教育滞后、城镇辐射能力不足等因素是造成西北地区贫困人口问题的重要原因。因此,应加大扶贫力度,扩大扶贫资金来源渠道,建立农业可持续发展模式,转变贫困人口生育观念,促进经济增长方式转变,根据贫困程度进行适当的生态移民是缓解西北地区贫困问题的基本思路。     

Declining Return Migration From the United States to Mexico in the Late-2000s Recession: A Research Note

Researchers in the United States and Mexico have variously asserted that return migration from the United States to Mexico increased substantially, remained unchanged, or declined slightly in response to the 2008–2009 U.S. recession and fall 2008 global financial crisis. The present study addresses this debate using microdata from 2005 through 2009 from a large-scale, quarterly Mexican household survey, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), after first validating the ENOE against return-migration estimates from a specialist demographic survey, the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). Declines in annual return-migration flows of up to a third between 2007 and 2009 were seen among the predominantly labor-migrant groups of male migrants and all 18- to 40-year-old migrants with less than a college education; and a decline in total return migration was seen in the fourth quarter of 2008 (immediately after the triggering of the global financial crisis) compared with the fourth quarter of 2007.     

Migration stock and the issue of competing and complementary flows in United States interstate migration

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of interstate migration in the United States from 1965–1970 when a new change in direction of migration has started, and to examine the flow creation or flow diversion that results from migration to some appealing regions. Several related variables have been selected and tested for gross interstate migration flows. The results show that overall both push and pull factors have not been important. People from higher income regions migrate more, and migrants tend to move to states with higher incomes and larger population. Distance was not found to act as a significant deterrence to migration, whereas population density of origin and destination was significant. Previous migration was found to have a very strong effect on migration. The results of the study also suggested that there has been a major change in the location of growth areas in the United States during 1955–1970.The study of concurrent flow showed that the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida combined have positively influenced migratory flow between origin and destination states. Empirical results, however, also showed that California did not have flow creation or flow diversion effects on interstate migration.This research was supported partly through Organized Research Funds of The University of Texas at Arlington.