An Evaluation of Hispanic Population Estimates*

Objective. Estimates of the Hispanic population have traditionally been based on historical trends, ratios, or some variant of the cohort‐component method. In this article, we describe and test a methodology in which estimates of the Hispanic population are based on symptomatic indicators of population change such as births, deaths, and school enrollments. Methods. Using a variety of techniques, we develop Hispanic population estimates for counties in Florida. We evaluate the accuracy of those estimates by comparing them with 2000 Census counts. Results. Hispanic population estimates have larger errors than estimates of total population; errors vary considerably by population size and growth rate; some techniques perform better than others in places with particular population characteristics; and averages often perform better than individual techniques. Conclusions. In many circumstances, symptomatic data series can provide more accurate estimates of the Hispanic population than more commonly used techniques.     

Religion and Abortion Attitudes Among U.S. Hispanics: Findings from the 1990 Latino National Political Survey*

Objective. The goal of this article is to examine the relationship between religious involvement, gauged mainly in terms of affiliation and frequency of attendance at services, and abortion attitudes among three major Hispanic subgroups: Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and Cuban Americans. Method. The study analyzes data from the Latino National Political Survey, a sample of over 2,700 U.S. Hispanics completed in 1990. Results. Committed (i.e., regularly attending) Hispanic Protestants, most of whom belong to conservative groups, are more strongly pro‐life than any other segment of the Latino population, and are much more likely than others to support a total abortion ban. Committed Catholics also tend to hold pro‐life views, but they are relatively more likely to endorse an abortion ban that includes exceptions for rape, incest, and threats to the mother's life. Less devoted Catholics and Protestants generally do not differ from religiously unaffiliated Hispanics in their abortion views. There are also modest variations in the links between religious involvement and abortion attitudes across the three Latino subgroups. Conclusion. Religious factors are highly important predictors of Hispanics' preferences regarding abortion policies. Contrary to some previous discussions, it is committed Protestants, more so than Catholics, who are the staunchest opponents of abortion in the Latino population.     

Presidential Direct Action and Policy Continuity: The Case of U.S. International Population Policy*

Objectives. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the modern practice of unilateral presidential policy making in the area of U.S. international population policy. The analysis focuses on the implications of this practice in a constitutional system intended to limit and constrain direct presidential action in policy making. Methods. The authors conduct their analysis using a variety of qualitative sources, including leading studies on the topics of presidential direct action and U.S. international population policy, and government documents. Conclusions. Policy development in this area has been marked by dramatic back‐and‐forth shifts due to the modern practice of presidents making many decisions without legislative involvement. Although not the only policy area in which this practice has become the norm, the case study of U.S. international population policy reveals the pitfalls of deviating from the constitutional design of a system of balanced and constrained powers.     

Racial Representation and U.S. Senate Apportionment*

Objectives. This research note explores whether the system of assigning each state equal representation in the U.S. Senate adversely affects racial minorities, groups that often have common political interests. We also project changes in minority representation over the next 20 years using Census data. Methods. We develop a new method of assessing racial bias due to apportionment, which calculates the number of seats lost by groups due to equal representation, a more substantively meaningful statistic than correlational measures. Results. We find that both African Americans and Hispanics are substantially underrepresented due to their greater presence in high‐population states as compared to in low‐population states. Whereas bias against African Americans appears to be falling, the demographic patterns of Hispanics will make them even more underrepresented in coming years. Conclusions. These findings are especially consequential considering that malapportionment has important public policy implications, including greater per‐capita distributive benefits for smaller states. Further, given that the Senate serves as a major veto point in U.S. politics, racial bias due to equal apportionment may have a significant impact on current and future political debates relevant to minority groups.     

Categorical Imperatives: The Interaction of Latino and Racial Identification*

Objective. Most large data sets solicit “ethnic” identification and “racial” identification in separate questions. We test the relative salience of these two identifications by exploring whether individuals who chose both a Latino “ethnic” label and a “racial” label on separate survey questions still chose both of these labels when they were given a single combined question about their racial and ethnic origins. Methods. Using the May 1995 Race and Ethnicity Supplement to the Current Population Survey, we estimate a multinomial logit model of identification choices. Results. We find that most individuals who chose a Latino label and a racial label chose a Latino‐only identification. Selection of multiple labels was more common for Latinos than non‐Latinos, however. Language use, local ethnic context, national origin, and age were all significantly related to these identification choices. Conclusion. The format of “race” and “ethnicity” questions on surveys has significant implications for the identification patterns of Latinos.     

Considering economic stress and empathic traits in predicting prosocial behaviors among U.S. Latino adolescents

The goal of the current study was to examine two competing models focusing on the roles of empathy‐related traits in the relation between economic stress and prosocial behaviors. First, we examined the mediating roles of perspective taking and empathic concern in the association between economic stress and adolescents’ prosocial behaviors. Second, we examined the moderating role of perspective taking in the association between economic stress and empathic concern, as well as the links between empathic concern and prosocial behaviors. Participants consisted of 307 (46.2% girls; M age = 15.05) U.S. Latino adolescents (77.5% U.S. Mexicans) and their primary caregivers (87.9% mothers). Primary caregivers reported on family‐level economic stress, and adolescents reported on their own perspective taking, empathic concern, and their tendency to engage in six forms of prosocial behaviors. Results demonstrated support for the moderating role of perspective taking on the link between economic stress and empathic concern, which in turn, was associated with multiple forms of helping behaviors. Economic stress was also directly associated with selfless and selfish helping behaviors. The discussion focuses on the multiple roles of empathic traits in understanding the links between economic stress and prosocial outcomes in U.S. Latino youth.     

Business Mobilization and Public Policy in the U.S. States*

Objective. The goal of this study is to examine how the political mobilization of business interests influences aggregate public policy outputs in the states. We examine the relationship between business mobilization and general state policy liberalism, as well as policy that we term state “business policy climate.” Methods. We construct a measure of the “business policy climate” from a number of tax and regulatory indicators in the states and examine whether business influences it and policy liberalism using ordinary least squares regression. Results. The analysis shows that business mobilization does not influence general policy liberalism but is a significant influence on a state's business policy climate. Specifically, the dominance of a state's campaign finance system by business interests makes policy more favorable toward business. Conclusions. The extent of business mobilization in a state is an important influence on public policy outputs but is constrained by the activities of other political actors such as unions.     

Ideological Realignment in the Contemporary U.S. Electorate Revisited*

Objective. In this study, we revisit the ideological‐realignment theory proposed by Abramowitz and Saunders (1998) by assessing the varying impact a person's ideology had on his or her partisan identification for individuals in different regions and between men and women. Method. Through an examination of the NES cumulative data file and the 1992–1994 NES Panel Study, we present a series of tabular findings, an OLS regression model, and partial correlation coefficients to assess these changing subgroup dynamics. Results. Between 1978 and 1994, the impact of a person's ideology on his or her party identification grew in magnitude, while the impact of respondents' parental party identification on their own party identification waned. However, these changes were not felt uniformly throughout the electorate, with Southern white males and Southern white females exhibiting the greatest changes. In the case of Southern white males, racial issues now appear to be related to their party identification. Conclusion. We find support for the ideological‐realignment theory, but find evidence that such changes occurred rather unevenly throughout the electorate, suggesting that different dynamics of realignment may be at work simultaneously.     

Ideological Centrism and the Electoral Fortunes of U.S. Senate Candidates*

Objective. The Downsian model of electoral competition with its individual‐level assumption of proximity voting by individuals implies that candidates in two‐party systems should perform better in elections when they adopt platforms more closely mirroring preferences of average constituents. Since extant analyses do not place candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric, they do not directly test the electoral consequences of proximity to voters. This study provides a direct test. Methods. I use the NES Senate Election Study to locate candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric and use ordinary least squares regression models to analyze the effects of candidate positioning on electoral outcomes. Results. Although stiff electoral competition may make it more likely that candidates gain votes by locating near average citizens, candidate proximity does not generally have a meaningful effect on Senate elections. Conclusions. Insignificant electoral benefits from ideological centrism may help explain candidate divergence in elections and has important implications for the nature of representation.     

Cross‐Border Earnings of U.S. Natives Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. This study explores whether the earnings of U.S.‐born cross‐border workers differ from those of their U.S.‐employed counterparts. We also analyze whether the cross‐border/non‐cross‐border wage differential changed during the 1990s—a decade when U.S.‐Mexico trade intensified and the maquiladora industry expanded. Methods. Employing decennial U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000, this article estimates earnings functions and uses wage decomposition analysis to study changes in the earnings of U.S.‐born Hispanic and non‐Hispanic cross‐border workers. Results. The number of U.S.‐native cross‐border workers, while relatively small, increased significantly between 1990 and 2000, as did their earnings. A closer examination reveals that this cross‐border earnings premium only developed among non‐Hispanics. Conclusions. These findings indicate that some U.S. natives find lucrative employment opportunities on the Mexican side of the border, which might be diminished by additional restrictions for U.S.‐born residents to easily cross back and forth into Mexico.     

The Elder Latino Population in Holyoke,MA

Abstract

Holyoke's elderly Latino population's needs, as well as their patterns of service utilization, were explored through detailed interviews of 13 individual elders and a focus group of an additional 10 participants. The research uncovered a gap in the web of resources available, with some services, such as medical care, functioning well. However, there continue to be unmet needs, particularly in the areas of transportation, social and recreational activities, and sense of safety. Negative perceptions of aging and complaints of anxiety, depression, and boredom are also an area of concern.

The barriers to use of services were also explored. Recommendations for the enhanced provision and utilization of services, many suggested by the elders themselves, are offered. Implications for social work research and policy on, and practice with, Latino elders are discussed.     

Politics,Pragmatism, and Departures from the U.S. Courts of Appeals, 1954–2004*

Objective. This article uses Cox proportional hazards models to explain departures from the U.S. Courts of Appeals from 1954–2004. I argue that reforms to pension eligibility and financial incentives in 1984 extended opportunities for voluntary departures and strategic behavior, and that reasons for quitting (whether political, personal, or institutional) differed among types of departures and over time. Methods. The data represent all judge‐years from 1954–2004. Both the full period and 1954–1983 and 1984–2004 subperiods are examined. Results. The effects of political factors are limited to partial retirements and suggest judges' recognition of contentious confirmation politics since the 1980s. Personal and institutional variables dominate outright departures. Conclusions. Explanations for departures from the circuit bench differ both by type and over time. Scholars and policymakers should refine arguments regarding judicial turnover and its causes.     

Policy Divergence in Races for the U.S. House of Representatives*

Objective. This article investigates the extent to which opposing candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives adopt differing policy stances and examines explanations for policy divergence. Methods. We use a Congressional Quarterly survey of 1996 House candidates to measure policy divergence on eight issues. We then test explanations for this divergence: party pressures, primaries, third‐party candidates, campaign contributions, candidate preferences, and uncertainty. Results. Primaries, third‐party challenges, and contributions play little role in explaining policy divergence. We find that party and candidate preferences contribute to differences in the policy platforms of opposing candidates while uncertainty weakens the pressure for policy convergence. Conclusion. Imperfect information weakens pressure on candidates to adopt positions favored by the majority of voters in a district. This lack of pressure allows candidates to indulge their personal and party preferences in taking policy stances.     

Language Choice,Residential Stability,and Voting Among Latino Americans*

Objective. Students of political behavior have often found that the primary use of languages other than English impedes many forms of political participation in the United States. We develop expectations about how language choice operates with social context to influence an individual's decision to vote. Although choosing to speak a language other than English—in this case, Spanish—may affect the amount of political information individuals have at their disposal, this choice also represents their access to social and community resources that enable, rather than impede, political participation. Methods. We examine the voting behavior of Latinos, almost entirely Mexican Americans, living in south Texas counties on the U.S. border and reconsider the consequences of language choice for political behavior. Results. Controlling for past residential tenure, we find that Spanish‐speaking Latinos will be more likely to vote than English‐speaking Latinos. Conclusions. The establishment of ties to an ethnic group in a majority‐minority context over time mitigates the negative relationship between the use of Spanish as a primary language and voting.     

Social Capital and Fire Service Performance: Evidence from the U.S. States*

Objective. The present study evaluates whether areas with high levels of social capital are likely to have better fire service performance. Method. Utilizing Robert Putnam's 14‐measure index of social capital, OLS regression techniques are applied to objective data on the rate of unintentional fire deaths in the U.S. states between 1980 and 2003. Results. The findings show that social capital is associated with a low unintentional fire death rate, even when controlling for a range of important environmental constraints. However, the effects of social capital vary by its conceptual components. Conclusions. The study supports the argument that social capital is likely to be an important determinant of fire service outcomes, and suggests that the political engagement and social trust components may be the most important focus for public policies seeking to build social capital in order to reduce fire fatalities.     

Acclimation Effects and Separate Opinion Writing in the U.S. Courts of Appeals*

Objective. This article investigates the existence of a freshman effect on separate opinion authorship on the U.S. Courts of Appeals. First, we evaluate the extent to which freshman judges demonstrate unique behavior with respect to writing concurring and dissenting opinions. Second, we examine the potential for background factors to condition any freshman effect. Methods. Individual judges' decisions to author separate opinions, drawn from the Courts of Appeals Database (1960 to 1988), are modeled as a function of a host of individual‐ and circuit‐level factors, including the freshman status of the judge. Results. After controlling for alternative explanations, we find that freshman judges on the courts of appeals are less likely to author concurring and dissenting opinions. Prior federal or appellate court experience, however, does not appear to condition the freshman effect. Conclusion. Freshman circuit court judges experience significant acclimation effects following their elevation to the federal appellate bench.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.