Are Naturalized Voters Driving the California Latino Electorate? Measuring the Effect of IRCA Citizens on Latino Voting*

Objectives. The 1990s witnessed the growth and maturation of the Latino electorate in California and many scholars have posited as to the reasons. One argument is that naturalizations by way of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) drove the increases in Latino participation. In this article we investigate the extent to which this is the case. Methods. Using unpublished INS data, we offer the first empirical test of the IRCA theory by examining Latino IRCA petitions by zipcode to determine whether or not IRCA legalizations and subsequent naturalizations were the force behind increased Latino turnout, and the overall growth of the Latino vote. We merge IRCA data with Registrar of Voter data to examine real growth in the Latino vote at the zipcode level from 1996–2000 in southern California. Results. Although Latino voting grew substantially, we find that IRCA naturalizations did not spur the increases in Latino voting in the 1990s as some have expected. Instead, demographic and mobilization variables explain why the Latino vote grew between 1996 and 2000. Conclusions. As Congress debates new proposals to “legalize” the millions of undocumented immigrants living and working in this country, many will inevitably ask what impact their citizenship will have on the electorate. This study sheds some light on the relationship between amnesty programs, citizenship, and voting among Latinos.     

A panacea for Latino and Black voters? Elevated turnout in vote by mail elections

This study analyzes U.S. Census data from citywide elections in Denver, Colorado from 2004 to 2007 in order to determine if a vote by mail format facilitated participation by Latino and Black voters. The multivariate results suggest that both Latino and Black voters participated more often in vote by mail elections, although the Black turnout increase was also affected by the recent change in Colorado's registration policies.     

¿Amigo de la Raza? Reexamining Determinants of Latino Support in the U.S. Congress*

Objectives. This study updates and extends research on substantive Latino representation in the U.S. Congress. An improved method of measuring “Latino interests” is proposed. Methods. Using a scorecard from the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda as the dependent variable, standard OLS regression is employed to determine the variables that best predict how members of the 108th Congress vote on issues that are salient to the Latino community. Results. The findings indicate that Latinos are substantively represented overwhelmingly by Democrats and those from majority‐Democratic districts or states, while religion and level of constituency poverty also play a notable role. Conclusion. This study adds strong support to the “party as a substantive representative” model of minority representation. It also shows that Latinos are not more likely to be substantively represented by fellow Latinos, nor do larger Latino constituencies affect a lawmaker's propensity to vote in favor of Latino interests.     

Latinos and School Vouchers: Testing the “Minority Support” Hypothesis*

Objectives. Voucher proponents, as well as some researchers, argue that minorities and individuals of relatively low socioeconomic status (SES) particularly favor school vouchers. Little work has specifically explored Latino attitudes, with the focus typically on African‐American opinions. This article will therefore examine whether Latinos hold unique attitudes toward vouchers. Methods. Ordinal probit regression analysis of a recent national survey of Latinos, African Americans, and Anglos (non‐Latino whites). Results. In the aggregate, Latinos and African Americans are more likely than Anglos to support vouchers. The Latino population variable is statistically insignificant, however, while the African‐American measure is significant and positive. When the aggregate Latino variable is disaggregated into four major Latino national‐origin groups, Puerto Ricans are shown to hold uniquely favorable opinions about vouchers. In addition, there are no opinion differences by income and education. Conclusions. When Catholicism is taken into account, the voucher opinions of Latinos and Anglos are generally indistinct. This suggests that aggregate Latino support for vouchers may drop if Catholic affiliation further declines.     

Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon*

Objectives. I test the impact of Oregon's vote‐by‐mail system on voter turnout. Methods. To determine the impact, I create a cross‐sectional time‐series regression model of state turnout in presidential elections from 1980 to 2004 and mid‐term elections from 1982 to 2006. Results. I find that Oregon's turnout increases by around 10 percentage points of registered voters in both presidential and mid‐term elections due to the voting‐by‐mail reform. Conclusions. These results suggest that one of the reasons that the United States has comparatively lower turnout is due to its more onerous voting procedures.     

Political Mobilization in the Pews: Religious Contacting and Electoral Turnout

Objective . We probe the impact of voter contact by religious groups, in the form of direct attempts to encourage voters to vote in a certain way and the placement of voter guides in churches, on voter turnout among white evangelical Protestants, white mainline Protestants, white Roman Catholics, and black Protestants in 1994, 1996, and 1998. Methods . Using data from the 1994, 1996, and 1998 National Election Studies, we fit a series of logistic regression models of voter turnout that feature, as key predictors, variables indicating whether an individual was contacted by "any groups concerned with moral or religious issues that tried to encourage you to vote in a particular way" and whether "information about candidates, parties or political issues [was] made available in your place of worship before the election." Results . These forms of contact were most commonly experienced by white evangelicals and black Protestants, and in many instances such contacts accomplished their intended purpose. Conclusions . Interest group contacts—at least contacts from the types of groups examined here—have the potential to be no more effective than contacts by political parties, perhaps because their messages can be more narrowly targeted.     

Divided Loyalties? Understanding Variation in Latino Attitudes Toward Immigration*

Objective. In this article, we develop and test a model of competing theoretical explanations of Latino attitudes toward immigration; specifically examining their policy preferences on legal immigration, illegal immigration, and a proposed policy for dealing with illegal immigrants. We also consider whether Latino attitudes toward legal and illegal immigration are related and comprise a single coherent structure. Method. Using data from a 2004 national survey of Latinos, we perform regression, logit, and ordered logit analyses to examine the determinants of Latino attitudes toward immigration. Results. We highlight three important findings. First, our results demonstrate “within‐group” differences in immigration attitudes among Latinos, based on both national origin and generational status; we find that Mexicans are more pro‐immigration than Latinos from other countries and that foreign‐born Latinos have much more positive attitudes about immigration than second‐generation and third‐generation Latinos. Second, we find that Latino support for various aspects of immigration is primarily a function of ethnic and linguistic identity and attachment to American culture, with self‐interest, contextual variables, and political and demographic attributes playing a smaller, more specialized role. Finally, we demonstrate that Latino attitudes toward legal and illegal immigration are highly interrelated. Conclusion. There is a coherent structure underlying Latino attitudes toward legal immigration, illegal immigration, and a policy option for dealing with illegal immigrants. Our tests of competing theoretical approaches reveal the importance of national origin and ethnic attachment and acculturation in explaining differences among Latinos on their attitudes toward immigration.     

Who is early voting? An individual level examination

Objective. Early voting has been suggested as one method of increasing voter turnout. Allowing voters to cast their ballots during a longer time period may ameliorate some barriers to participation that exist. However, the question of whether early voting mobilizes previous nonvoting registrants or simply makes voting easier for those who would have participated anyway remains largely unanswered. Methods. We test these questions through the use of an individual level survey of voters in one Tennessee county. Using logistic regression, we consider the impact of demographic and attitudinal factors on the propensity to vote on election day or to use early voting. Results. We find marked differences between nonvoters and voters of either type, but we find few significant differences between early voters and traditional voters. We find little support for a mobilization effect and some evidence suggests that early voting merely conveniences those who would have voted anyway.     

Ethnic Context and Immigration Policy Preferences Among Latinos and Anglos*

Objective. We examine how the immigration policy preferences of Anglos and Latinos vary according to ethnic context. Specifically, we hypothesize that immigration policy attitudes are a product of both Latino immigrant and Latino native born group size. In contrast to previous work, which found that Latinos and Anglos react to contextual forces in an identical manner, we argue that Latino group size produces opposite reactions for Anglos and Latinos. Methods. These hypotheses are tested using an original state‐wide survey of Anglos and Latinos in Texas conducted during 2006, which is supplemented with data from the 2000 Census. Results. Our findings show that residing in a heavily Latino area produces more liberal immigration attitudes among Latinos and more conservative attitudes among Anglos. However, this result is driven not by the size of the foreign‐born Latino population, but by the size of the native‐born Latino population. Conclusion. Anti‐immigrant sentiments among Anglos appear to result, at least in part, from ethnic concerns.     

Anglo and Latino Differences in Willingness to Pay for Urban Public Services*

Objective. This research explores Anglo and Latino differences in willingness to pay for urban public services, assuming differences will impact service delivery in local government as the Latino population increases and becomes more visible. Methods. Survey data from a probability sample of Phoenix residents, now the nation's fifth largest city, are analyzed across 28 city services using multiple mechanisms that included a logit multivariate model. Results. Latinos are substantially more likely than Anglos to report willingness to pay for urban public services. These differences cut across services and are not mitigated by Latino income levels. Conclusions. Latinos are prepared to be full partners in improving service delivery in local government, even at the expense of out‐of‐pocket payment for services. Moreover, while increases in the Latino population will carry greater demand for more and high‐quality city services by Latinos, it is unlikely to alter the menu of preferred services along class or race/ethnic lines. The fact that Latinos seem generally more willing to pay for services also raises the possibility that Latinos are interested in investing in their communities, seeking more opportunities, and perhaps remaining in those communities.     

Categorical Imperatives: The Interaction of Latino and Racial Identification*

Objective. Most large data sets solicit “ethnic” identification and “racial” identification in separate questions. We test the relative salience of these two identifications by exploring whether individuals who chose both a Latino “ethnic” label and a “racial” label on separate survey questions still chose both of these labels when they were given a single combined question about their racial and ethnic origins. Methods. Using the May 1995 Race and Ethnicity Supplement to the Current Population Survey, we estimate a multinomial logit model of identification choices. Results. We find that most individuals who chose a Latino label and a racial label chose a Latino‐only identification. Selection of multiple labels was more common for Latinos than non‐Latinos, however. Language use, local ethnic context, national origin, and age were all significantly related to these identification choices. Conclusion. The format of “race” and “ethnicity” questions on surveys has significant implications for the identification patterns of Latinos.     

Political Participation Among Latinos in the United States: The Effect of Group Identity and Consciousness*

Objective. How do group identity and consciousness affect Latinos' political participation in the United States? Recent studies that examine this relationship generally focus on a single ethnic group, for example, Mexicans, or the panethnic group, Latino/Hispanic, which limits the scope of their results. This study investigates how group identity and consciousness affect the political participation of differently identified Latinos. Methods. Using the unique 2007 Latino National Survey (LNS), a telephone survey of 8,500 Latino respondents, I investigate how group identity and consciousness affect political participation, as measured by electoral and nonelectoral activities. Results. Findings suggest that Latinos who self‐identify as American are more likely to engage in political action; however, a sense of group consciousness among ethnic, panethnic, and racial‐identified Latinos alters this effect. Conclusion. The type of and extent to which Latinos engage in political action is contingent on primary self‐identity and specific aspects of group consciousness.     

Why Do People Vote? A Psychological Analysis of the Causes of Voter Turnout

A great deal of scholarship has explored why some democratic citizens vote while others do not. This article reviews that literature through a lens presuming that a person's likelihood of turning out on election day is a multiplicative function of his or her ability to vote, her or her motivation to vote, and the difficulty of obtaining the needed information and carrying out the behavior of voting. We conclude that (a) turnout is made more difficult and less likely by onerous registration procedures; (b) turnout is more likely among some demographic groups because of greater motivation or ability or less difficulty; (c) the social setting in which a person lives and the psychological dispositions he or she possesses can affect turnout by shaping motivation, ability, or difficulty; (d) characteristics of a specific electoral contest can inspire or discourage turnout; and (e) canvassing and interviewing people about an election can increase turnout, but preelection polls and election-day outcome projections do not. Consequently, an individual citizen/s turnout behavior is a joint function of his or her social location, his or her psychological dispositions, the procedures involved in voting, and events that occur at the time of each election .     

Latino cabinet appointments and young Latino voters: A preliminary look at GOP efforts to attract Latino voters

We examine whether the recent GOP efforts to make Latino cabinet appointments have appealed to young Latinos who comprise a large proportion of the Latino electorate. We found that young Latinos were not aware of many of these appointments and the appointment of Alberto Gonzales to the post of Attorney General was the most visible Latino appointment. Though many did not support Gonzales’ appointment, those we surveyed were eager to see more visible Latino appointments in the future and reported that their perceptions of the Republican Party and former President Bush were improved by the appointment. We also found that young Latinos’ support for the president was greatly impacted by their perception of presidential interest in their community and we argue that Latino representation in appointments may become increasingly important as the Latino population expands.     

Mobilized by Direct Democracy: Short‐Term Versus Long‐Term Effects and the Geography of Turnout in Ballot Measure Elections*

Objectives. A number of recent studies find that direct democracy increases voter turnout. In this article, we ask: Who does direct democracy mobilize to vote and how are they mobilized? We distinguish between long‐term and short‐term effects on voter turnout, noting that much of the current literature has focused on participatory theory. Methods. Our research design harnesses the power of geographic information systems and examines turnout in special initiative‐only elections using registered voter lists. Our model draws on individual and Census tract data, incorporated using a hierarchical generalized linear model. Results. The findings demonstrate how partisan context mitigates the potential for direct democracy to mobilize from the middle, and clarifies the dominance of short‐term as opposed to long‐term effects in increasing voter participation in ballot initiative elections. Conclusion. Mobilization via direct legislation occurs mostly because voters are actively mobilized by partisan campaigns, not because of an increase in participatory fervor.     

State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes*

Objective. This study examines the links among income inequality, voter turnout, and electoral choice at the state level in recent presidential elections. Methods. We introduce two new state‐level ecological data sets, estimated annual Gini coefficients of income inequality from 1969 to 2004 and a measure of income segregation across Census tracts within states in 1999. We test for associations among inequality, turnout, and party preference with cross‐sectional, fixed‐effects, and multilevel analyses. Results. The cross‐sectional effect of inequality on voter turnout and electoral choice is ambiguous. However, a fixed‐effects analysis links higher income inequality to lower voter turnout and also to a stronger Democratic vote. Multilevel results indicate that higher levels of economic segregation likewise are associated with depressed turnout, after controlling for individual voter characteristics and for state‐level income.