A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.     

区域人口承载能力的多因素分析——以上海为例

上海人口增长的规划控制目标,从根本上取决于其人口承载量的拓展潜力.区域人口承载能力研究,所面对的是由人口、资源、环境、经济和社会构成的复杂巨系统,必须充分重视研究对象的系统属性.本文在构建区域人口承载能力系统框架的基础上,利用主成分分析法建立综合评价模型,并对上海在不同发展阶段,与不同标准相对应的各项资源经济要素所能提供的人口承载能力进行了测算分析.     

上海养老保险制度面临的挑战及对策初探

进入21世纪,上海面临人口老龄化的挑战,迫切需要建立一个从实际出发的、较为完善的社会养老保险体系。但纵观其现行养老保险基金的运行状况,仍存在着较大的收支缺口。文章试图通过介绍上海养老保险制度的现状及其面临的问题和困难,并借鉴国外发达国家养老金的运筹情况,为上海养老保险制度的改革和完善提出一些对策和建议。     

就业与产出的互动关系研究——以上海市第三产业为例

认识就业与产出之间的互动关系是有效实施产业结构调整政策的前提与基础 ,论文以上海市第三产业为例 ,在阐述就业对产出影响的基础上 ,深入地分析了就业增长的变动与上海市第三产业产出增长变动的关系 ,并对变动的原因进行了分析与论述。结果表明 ,产出增长的变动及就业“产出效应”的下降是造成上海市第三产业就业变动的主要原因 ,并给出了保持就业均衡发展的政策建议。     

顺德市人口、资源、环境与可持续发展

本文模拟了顺德市在不实行计划生育政策的条件下的人口增长情况 ,结果发现由于计划生育 ,在 1971- 1998年间 ,顺德市少生了 5 0多万人口 ,从而使顺德市的人口、资源、环境在经济高速发展的情况下仍能基本协调。文章也分析了顺德市目前的人口、资源与环境可持续发展的状况和问题 ,并提出了一些建议     

Resources,environment, and population: the nature of future limits

The balance between world supplies of resources and the demands presented by population growth in the recent past, during the period to 2025, and for the long term is examined. Focus is on the issues, the past in terms of socioeconomic indicators, past trends in market places, and specific evidence of depletion; future demands in terms of population projections and growth in per capita demand; resource supplies to 2025; ultimate resource production possibilities; environmental constraints and risks (problems capable of control at reasonable cost, other domestic environmental problems, and potentially severe global problems); and implications. Improvement in socioeconomic indicators, relatively stable resource market prices, along with evidence of resource and environmental changes suggest that thus far the world as a whole has been able to win the race between demand and supply. For the next 50 years, during which a slowdown is projected in population growth rates and resource consumption, the most important problems to be faced are associated with the unequal distribution of resources and the transition problems of moving from 1 resource regime to another in an orderly fashion. For the long term, a projected equilibrium population of 10-12 billion can probably be sustained at a decent standard of living by more equitable distribution of food and shifts from less to more abundant resources. Ultimately, environmental and security problems associated with growing energy production and use such as increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and nuclear proliferation may be the most difficult to resolve. Although cessation of population growth would help, it does not by itself constitute a solution to the world's resource problems. Both the causes and the symptoms need to be worked on simultaneously. Understanding the true nature of the world's resource and environmental limitations is a 1st step in that direction.     

A preliminary inquiry into the problem of floating population in Shanghai city proper]

Shanghai's geographic location and socio-economic status make it the most attractive city for transient population from all over China. As a result of the country's rapid economic development and policy of "openness and domestic economy vitalization, "Shanghai has increased its economic, scientific, and cultural communication with other Chinese cities and foreign countries. The transient population has also increased greatly. Between January and June, 1984, the transient population reached 136,880,000. A study conducted at midnight on August 10, 1984 surveyed the transient population, with the following results: 1) Based on random sampling of data collected by the 46 Household Registration Committees, temporary visitors in Shanghai's residences totaled between 315,286 and 359,602 persons 2) Hotel residents: 125,000 3) People residing on boats: 19,000 4) Temporary residents in 10 suburban areas: 20,000 5) Other transient population consists of temporary factory and construction workers and farm produce vendors: 79,000 the total transient population at midnight on August 10, 1984 was 586,000 persons. 41.6% were visiting friends and relatives or came for medical assistance. 45.9% came from other provinces, 38.8% from local farm villages, 14.3% from nearby towns, and .93% from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. The transient population has contributed to the development, productivity, and supply of commodities to Shanghai, and increased the city's communication with other provinces, but measures should be taken to properly manage it. To better manage this problem, the following steps must be taken: 1) Survey the population -- number, composition, distribution, sources, and activity patterns; 2) Classify by profession and centralize management; 3) Establish methods for proper distribution and diversification of market and entertaining areas; and 4) Improve roads, communication, and hotel facilities.     

浅析上海市近年来对外来流动人口的政策变迁

本文主要是对上海市近年来对外来流动人口政策变迁的综述和浅析。根据文化程度的高低 ,一般将流动人口分为两个不同的层次 ,也相应出台了不同的政策 ,从针对层次较高的所谓“引进人才”的蓝印户口、工作证制度、以及居住证到针对层次较低的外来普通务工人员的就业证制度和综合保险政策。最后得出的结论是 :根据上海经济、社会发展变化的相应需求 ,“筑高门槛 ,开大城门” ,成为上海市对外来流动人口管理政策的基本趋势 ,外地人进入上海的难度在增加。     

The demographic situation in the ESCAP region viewed in terms of social welfare. (Abstracted information from Committee on Population,Second Session,Bangkok, Thailand,December 13-19, 1978.)

The combined population of the ESCAP region is estimated to be growing by an annual increment of 50 million people, and is expected to reach an estimated 2936 million in 1990, when it will constitute 55.4% of the total world population. Continued population growth implies a demand for food, and the majority of the ESCAP countries have to depend on imports to meet their food requirements. Main problems are to improve the capability to produce more food, to adequately provide for health services, housing, and educational facilities for a fast expanding school-age population. With the continuing high rate of population growth the labor force will continue to increase and result in a high rate of unemployment. Population planning must be made an integral part of the over-all plans for socioeconomic development of the entire region.     

"Economic growth," population,and the environment

Thought and policies on population and the environment are damaged by the concept of "economic growth," which implies that the pattern of economic change of the United States is a Nature-programmed course that will automatically elevate all nations and take care of problems of population and the environment. This doctrine is essentially a myth, which is popular because of its flattering promises. The required cause-and-effect analysis of the policies required to limit population and preserve the environment cannot prevail and save the future until the influence of wishful myths such as that of "economic growth" is radically reduced.     

Population growth,farmland, and the long-run standard of living

This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased.The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed.That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.This paper benefitted from being presented in earlier draft at a Population Association of America meeting, to the Economic History workshop at the University of Illinois, and to a seminar of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in New Delhi. We appreciate valuable comments on earlier drafts from Stanley Engerman, E. L. Jones, William McNeill, and two anonymous referees. Gunter Steinmann acknowledges financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation and a travel grant from Fulbright Commission.     

需进一步控制我国人口增长的实证分析

谈进一步控制我国人口增长是缘于“五普”人口数据不准,算全面建设小康社会人口大账的考虑,以及用生产力标准衡量的结果。文章研究认为,进一步控制我国人口增长所牵涉的问题可以通过观念更新、措施更新解决。     

基于比较研究的上海人口规模再思考

近十几年来,我国城市化进程加速,大城市规模表现出明显的扩张,根据我国人口与经济发展形势,学者们对特大城市上海未来的人口规模问题展开了激烈的争论,从不同视角提出了自己的看法。在其他学者研究成果的基础上,拟采用比较研究的新视角,参照国际经验,以完全开放的系统观,分成几条线分别对上海的人口规模等进行研讨,然后再适当考虑约束条件,把这几条线加以整合,得出未来上海最大人口规模为2600万人的结论。     

Theories and practical problems of population facing four modernizations being conscientiously studied]

The Second National Symposium on Population Theory focused on the problems of population and their solution associated with the 4 modernizations. The following issues discussed by 7 Sumposium panels are summarized: population development theory in the socialist society; population problems in China and their solution; population policies and legislation relating to population control; population distribution and migration; population estimation and population planning; and population research and the establishment of population theory. Discussants agreed that the comprehensive investigation of population principle in a socialist society is of great importance to decisionmaking in the area of China's population development policy. Several different issues arose concerning the content and critical areas in the development of a socialist population principle. More than 1 principle is operating in socialist population theory, but the most important is the principle of population reproduction. The point was made that in addition to the population principle specific to individual society, there exists principles that are common to every society. The consensus was that population growth is associated with all the economical, political, and idelogical developments and that among these the association between population growth and economic development is the most significant. The current major population problem in China was identified as maladjustment between population growth and economic development. This maladjustment has led to problems in the areas of education, employment, transportation, and housing. The fundamental solution was identified as improving economical development to increase the material reproduction and controlling the population reproduction. In addition to birth control policies, it was suggested that population policies should include the geographical distribution and migration of the population. There was wide support for the proposal to legislate population control. It was agreed that such legislation would promote the progress of population control and assure its success. Discussion of the problems of population distribution and migration concentrated on the population problems of the urban area and minority ethnic groups. It was suggested that a nationwide census be conducted in population planning, population legislation, and population theory investigation. In order to establish the socialist population theory, it is essential to clarify the subjects, scopes, and methods of population research.     

韩国人口政策及其对中国农村人口政策的启示

韩国的人口政策经历了由控制人口增长的计划生育政策到鼓励人口增长的新人口政策的转变,成功控制了人口的快速增长。缓解了人口与经济、社会资源、环境之间的矛盾,但也引起了人口老龄化、出生婴儿性别比失调等一系列社会问题。这些社会问题如今也正在中国农村上演。如能借鉴立法先行、大力发展社会福利事业、善于运用经济杠杆等经验,对维持中国农村人口的低出生率,抑制出生婴儿性别比例失调和人口老龄化的加剧具有积极的意义。     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.     

Projected consumption patterns for a stationary population

Abstract Recently economists have demonstrated a renewed interest in the population problems of a mature society. This revival of interest has been sparked by the general recognition of the relationship between population growth and environmental problems and has led to general acceptance of the proposition that ' ... a zero rate of population growth is the only equilibrium rate that can be sustained'.(1) Consequently the literature produced during the discipline's last period of similar concern, a period running from the late 1920's through the 1940's, needs re-examination. At that time economists were primarily occupied with the implications of a declining rate of population growth and most anticipated the arrival of a stationary population within the foreseeable future. For most of the economists of this earlier period the onset of a stationary or declining population was fraught with dangers for mature capitalism.     

吉林省人口增长与社会经济发展过程中存在的问题及对策研究

人口增长与社会经济发展的关系十分复杂,从人口学角度出发,运用五普及相关资料,对吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展进行分析,可以看到,虽然吉林省人口增长和社会经济发展总的形势比较良好,但依然存在诸如人口基数大、劳动力年龄人口增长快、老年人口增长快、城镇人口增长快等一系列问题,影响了社会经济的发展。     

On the relationship between population growth and economic development]

People are producers as well as consumers. If we look at only one side and ignore the other, we will be unable to reach impartial conclusions concerning the population problem. An obvious and close relationship exists between population growth and national economic development. If the two do not match each other, there will be numerous contradictory problems. For example, if the population grows too fast, serious social and economic problems will be created, such as a rise in the demand for living resources, an oversupply of the labor force, unemployment, and an insufficient availability of arable land, a shortage of public housing, more demand for health care and public transportation, and cultural and educational enterprises. In addition, a rapid population growth may cause more problems for the natural environment. As a result of overpopulation, the pressure on natural resources will be intensified and may therefore cause damage to the environment and create an ecological imbalance. All the above may bring very serious difficulties and obstacles to the advancement of socialism and modernized constructions. To avoid this, we must try to solve the population problem thoroughly and maintain a balanced relationship between the population growth and economic development.     

The End of the Demographic Transition: Relief or Concern?

Demographic transition theory might seem to imply that, after a period of exceptional population growth resulting from the time lag between mortality and fertility declines, every population, and then the whole world population will stabilize and, consequently, no more acute population problems will appear. Does the claim, recently gaining credibility, that the end of the transition is at hand actually imply a stage without major population problems? Nothing is less sure. First, it is just a claim, the realization of which still entails a period of dramatically rapid population growth in some countries, especially the poorest. But more tellingly, the end of the transition is also the end of the paradigm on which we have been relying to understand and anticipate demographic changes. Nobody knows what might ensue later: How long and low can fertility fall? How long and high can life expectancy increase? How far can population aging go? As many questions without answer and probably as many problems whose size we cannot even imagine lie ahead.