企业技术创新风险传导过程中风险迭加分析

本文基于风险传导理论，通过对技术创新风险的风险源、风险流、传导载体等关键要素的研究，探析了技术创新风险传导机理，对企业技术创新传导过程中的风险迭加进行了分析。     

企业风险传导的介质研究

我国企业风险传导的研究还处在早期阶段,本文从风险传导的诸多要素中提炼出企业风险传导常见的五个重要介质,即:管理部门的政策改变导致的风险传导;产业链条上的资金流动带来的风险传导;生产过程中的技术淘汰或创新产生的风险传导;经营中的市场价格涨跌造成的风险传导、跨国投资与贸易的汇率波动形成的风险传导。本文采用理论与实践相结合的办法,总结了企业风险传导的基本特征,希望对我国从整体上防范企业风险大面积传导起到参考与借鉴作用。     

新形势下企业内部控制风险探讨

良好的内部控制可以保证企业合规经营、会计信息真实可靠和企业经营效率的提高，而合规经营、真实的财务报告和有效率的经营也正是企业风险管理所应该达到的基本状态。从这个角度出发，内部控制是风险管理的必要环节，内部控制的动力来自企业对风险的认识和管理。相反，如果没有良好的内部控制，则往往会导致各种错误和舞弊的产生，甚至造成企业的破产倒闭，从国内的巨人集团衰败、“银广厦”案到国外的巴林银行倒闭、“安然事件”等无不是由于其内部控制缺损或失效所致。因此，内部控制是防范风险事件发生的一种长效机制。     

ERP环境下销售收款业务过程的风险评估与控制

由于信息技术的快速发展和广泛应用,企业的经营活动完全处在信息化环境之下,ERP系统的实施给传统的生产销售过程带来了便利和风险。正确识别风险并进行控制有助于企业的经营活动正常运行。本文主要对企业经营的核心环节——销售与收款业务过程进行分析,对信息化环境下可能存在的风险和控制措施进行探讨。     

企业风险传导的六种方式及其特征

企业风险无处无时不在,风险传导时有发生。企业既存在内部风险也存在外部风险、局部风险与全局风险、系统风险与非系统风险。本文从风险传导的差异出发,总结了风险传导的6种方式,揭示了风险传导的特征。有助于快速发展的我国企业防范传导性风险带来的危害,对防范大面积企业风险传导有着积极的警示作用。     

基于企业行为偏好的企业间信用担保网络与风险传染研究

本文从行为金融学视角,结合复杂网络理论和信用担保关系选择机制构建了内生性企业间信用担保网络以及企业间信用担保网络风险传染模型,仿真分析了企业间信用担保网络结构及其风险传染演化特征。研究得到如下主要结论：(1)随着时间演化,企业间信用担保网络结构呈现“弱去中心化”特征,而且企业间信用担保网络的复杂性与稳定性增强;(2)企业资信水平不仅能够提高“担保圈”风险冲击概率,而且可以降低信用担保系统的不稳定性。随着企业影响力和企业风险认知水平增大,有助于增强冲击后企业信用担保系统的稳定性。企业风险偏好较小时,保证了“担保圈”内有效的流动性供给,但当企业风险偏好不断增强时,加剧了信用担保需求方的经营困境。(3)企业风险偏好对企业影响力、企业资信水平、企业风险认知水平发挥“强化效应”。企业资信水平与企业影响力具有“互为强化效应”。企业风险认知水平的“风险制约能力”强于企业资信水平的“风险强化能力”。企业风险认知水平与企业影响力对违约企业数量的影响发挥互为逆向效应且两者强度相当。     

房地产企业财务风险管理浅析

因资产负债率高、对宏观经济政策高度敏感等特殊原因,房地产企业面临着较一般企业更大的财务风险,表现在筹资、投资、经营和收益分配等生产经营的各环节。为保证企业生产经营正常运行,房地产企业应加强对财务风险的关注,积极采取各种措施,有效控制财务风险。     

我国企业“走出去”中的政策风险防范

随着经济全球化的快速发展,为进一步开拓国际市场和利用境外资源,提高国际竞争力,我国企业大力实施“走出去”战略。由于我国企业对外投资起步较晚,缺少跨国投资与经营的丰富经验,在“走出去”过程中不可避免的遭受到各种风险。其中,“政策风险”是企业在“走出去”中遇到的最大风险。分析我国企业“走出去”的政策风险类型以及遭遇政策风险的原因,并提出有效防范政策风险的措施,无疑将对促进我国企业成功“走出去”发挥积极的作用。     

规范医院电子病历档案管理

推进医院信息化建设是医药卫生体制改革的重要内容，而电子病历是医院信息化建设的重点。2010年卫生部制定了《电子病历系统功能规范（试行）》和《电子病历基本规范（试行）》，分别从技术和管理角度对电子病历的内容予以规范。尤其是随着第二个“规范”的实施，必将对医院电子病历档案的应用产生推动作用。     

谈财务风险成因及防范对策

财务风险作为一种信号,能够全面综合反映企业的经营状况,且存在于企业财务管理工作的各个环节,它要求企业管理者要对其成因进行分析,针对其对企业经营造成的现实影响,制定适当的防范财务风险决策,完善风险管理机构.进一步防范或降低企业财务风险.达到提高企业经济效益的目的.     

A Disciplinary Perspective on the Epistemological Status of Risk

A unique multidisciplinary perspective on the risk literature is used to establish a fresh and provocative argument regarding the epistemological understanding and definition of risk. Building on economic conceptualizations that distinguish risk from uncertainty and argue that risk is an ordered application of knowledge to the unknown, the survey identifies each of the disciplines as having a particular knowledge approach with which they confront the unknown so as to order its randomness and convert it into a risk proposition. This epistemological approach suggests the concept of risk can act as a mirror, reflecting the preoccupations, strengths, and weaknesses of each discipline as they grapple with uncertainty. The conclusion suggests that the different disciplines can, and desirably should, act in concert toward a cumulative appreciation of risk that progresses our understanding of the concept. One way in which the article challenges risk experts to join disciplinary forces in a collaborative effort is to holistically appreciate and articulate the concept of political risk calculation.     

Effect of Risk Ladder Format on Risk Perception in High- and Low-Numerate Individuals

Utilizing a random sample from the general population ( N = 257), we examined the effect of the radon risk ladder on risk perception, as qualified by respondents' numeracy. The radon risk ladder provides comparative risk information about the radon equivalent of smoking risk. We compared a risk ladder providing smoking risk information with a risk ladder not providing this information. A 2 (numeracy; high, low) × 3 (risk level; high, medium, low) × 2 (smoking risk comparison: with/without) between subjects experimental design was used. A significant ( p < 0.045) three-way interaction between format, risk level, and numeracy was identified. Participants with low numeracy skills, as well as participants with high numeracy skills, generally distinguished between low, medium, and high risk levels when the risk ladder with comparative smoking risk information was presented. When the risk ladder without the comparative information about the smoking risk was presented, low-numerate individuals differentiated between risk levels to a much lesser extent than high-numerate individuals did. These results provide empirical evidence that the risk ladder can be a useful tool in enabling people to interpret various risk levels. Additionally, these results allow us to conclude that providing comparative information within a risk ladder is particularly helpful to the understanding of different risk levels by people with low numeracy skills.     

BOT项目的可控制风险研究

BOT是一种高收益与高风险并存的投资模式,在项目公司无法把握政治风险、商业风险和通货膨胀等不可控制风险的情况下,如何减小或避免可控制的资本结构风险、竣工风险和收入等风险就显得犹为重要。本文通过分析项目公司的参与约束和偿债约束,在定量的确定了项目公司资本结构要求的基础上,给出了避免可控制风险的相关条件。     

风险相关性下的信用风险、市场风险和操作风险集成度量

商业银行各种风险之间相关性的存在,对其整体风险的度量产生重要影响。本文针对商业银行的信用风险、市场风险和操作风险这三类主要风险,在考虑相关性基础上给出了风险集成过程,通过copula函数和蒙特卡洛模拟方法计算了商业银行的整体风险,同时研究了风险分散化效应和在不同copula函数下整体风险的变化情况。最后以主流文献中的数据做了实证分析,结果显示本文提出方法能够很好的描述风险损失之间的相关性,同时在能够抵御相同风险的情况下考虑相关性下的在险值与简单相加得到的在险值相比要小,这能为银行业提高资金利用率提供了一定的理论和方法依据。     

基于信用风险久期免疫的资产负债管理优化模型

用信用风险溢酬修正现金流的贴现率,构造了基于信用风险久期免疫条件;以组合收益最大为目标函数,建立了基于信用风险久期免疫的资产负债组合优化模型。本模型通过建立信用风险久期的免疫条件匹配银行的资产与负债,回避了利率风险和信用风险对银行所有者权益的影响;通过用反映违约风险的贴现率表述信用久期函数,揭示了信用风险对久期的影响;通过看跌期权公式建立了贴现率与违约风险的函数关系,揭示了违约风险对贴现率的影响。     

基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究

船舶航行风险是由各种风险因素交互作用产生。综合 HHM-RFRM 理论，构建船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型，以风险因素耦合视角探讨船舶航行风险管理问题。在船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型中结合贝叶斯定理，对船舶航行风险情景进行了定性与定量化过滤、评级。最后以大连港某从事商务活动的货船为例，验证了所提出方法的可行性。传统的风险评估方法只能评估单个风险因素对系统的影响，此评估方法克服了这一局限性，为船舶航行风险管理提供新的视角。     

基于可变风险偏好的知识型员工激励机制研究

本文研究了风险偏好与风险成本,分析了知识型员工风险偏好的特征,利用委托代理模型讨论了确定与不确定环境下员工风险偏好与企业激励强度之间的关系,并对如何协调两者的冲突以及知识型员工与企业间协调作用的特征进行了剖析.研究表明随着员工风险规避度的增大,企业应减小激励强度与风险分担;一定条件下企业和员工可协调对方的行为,但企业的激励措施居于主导地位;与一般员工相比,知识型员工的风险规避度较小且更具可变性,影响企业激励行为的能力更强,与企业间基于可变风险偏好的激励协调行为更可能发生.     

虚拟企业中的风险分析与监控

本文首先对虚拟企业中的风险进行了定性分析,并给出了虚拟企业风险分类预控粗对策表。进一步地,本文设计了虚拟企业风险核对表,并提出了一个基于Web的风险核对表发布框架,以辅助管理者对虚拟企业运行过程中的风险进行实时监控。     

Trend effects on perceived avalanche hazard

Hazard-level forecasts constitute an important risk mitigation tool to reduce loss of economic values and human life. Avalanche forecasts represent an example of this. As for many other domains, avalanche risk is communicated using a color-coded, categorical risk scale aimed at informing the public about past, current, and future risk. We report the results from three experiments in which we tested if an irrelevant past trend in forecasted avalanche danger affects perceptions of current and future avalanche risk. Our sample consisted of individuals from three different populations targeted by national avalanche warning services. All three experiments showed that the perception of avalanche risk is influenced by the trend, but that the effect is opposite for perceptions of current and expectations of future avalanche risk. While future avalanche risk is extrapolated in the same direction as the change from the previous day, we found that perceived current risk appears to be based on an average of past and current risk. These effects diminish when we provide participants with a scale indicating the exact level of avalanche danger. For most of our measurement instruments, however, the effects remain significant. These results imply that targeted populations may consider historic information more than was intended by the sender. As such, our results have implications for both avalanche warning services and risk communication in general.     

Varying Risk Comparison Elements: Effects on Public Reactions

Expanding a limited empirical base on effects of risk comparisons, a pilot experiment explored how varying elements of such comparisons might influence public response. The scenario used was a hypothetical trial of an asbestos-installing firm for putting students and staff at a junior high school at "unreasonable risk," first used by Slovic et al. (1990). Study participants played the role of jurors in the trial, asked to rate the risk, the firm's guilt, whether it should be made liable for future health effects, whether the school should be occupied in its current condition, and whether the asbestos should be removed at a cost of 3 million dollars. Opportunity samples of New Jersey residents (n= 309) received information intended to vary four comparison attributes: number of dimensions of comparison; single versus multiple ways of expressing mortality; a narrative to explain and justify the risk comparison; and the hypothetical role of the participant (juror vs. parent). The dependent variable was a hazard scale constructed from four of the five postcomparison judgments. ANOVA found format variations swamped in their effect by concern about asbestos, with the absence of a narrative and the parental role being the only attributes that increased negative risk reactions. Multiple regression analyses found that multidimensionality, narrative, role, and the presence of any risk comparison at all had significant effects when these (plus death formats) were the only independent variables. However, only multidimensionality (which increased negative reactions) retained significance when asbestos concern, risk beliefs (no safe level of exposure to a carcinogen; any exposure leads to cancer), and demographic variables were added to the analysis. Concern and risk beliefs alone explained 33% of variance in hazard scores; adding demographics and risk comparison variables only raised explained variance to 36% (having children at home and being exposed to multidimensional risk comparisons raised scores; age and income lowered them). The results underline the potentially small effect of risk comparison information on risk views (at least between subjects), but offer some insight into aspects of message design left unexplored in empirical literature to date.