克里普克的历史的因果命名理论评析

克里普克对专名词与摹状词进行了严格的区分,他的命名理论开辟了专名研究的新领域,具有重要意义,但他的命名理论仍存在不完全性,因为这一理论无法说明专名的指称在传递中发生转移等三种情况。在专名问题上,摹状词理论和历史的因果命名理论是相互补充的。     

中国货币政策非中性——货币—产出的因果关系和影响关系检验

货币—产出之间的影响关系涉及到货币政策的有效性和需求管理政策的可行性。我们对货币—产出之间影响关系的一些典型化事实进行了理论分析和统计检验 ,发现一些具有代表性的典型化事实在我国经济运行当中并不成立。这说明在目前实行稳健性货币政策的过程当中 ,我国货币政策的非中性原因和政策传导机制具有与政策工具和市场条件相关的特性。     

The role of social integration in the adverse effect of unemployment on mental health – Testing the causal pathway and buffering hypotheses using panel data

Social integration is considered crucially important for understanding the adverse effect of unemployment on mental health. Social integration is assumed to either bring about the health effects of unemployment (causal pathway hypothesis) or shield the unemployed from such effects (buffering hypothesis). However, there is scarce empirical evidence, especially based on panel data, regarding these two hypotheses. In our analysis, we use up to ten waves of the “Labour Market and Social Security” (PASS) German panel study and apply fixed effects panel regressions to account for unobserved confounders. We test several indicators that cover different aspects of social integration (numbers of strong and weak ties, conflict in the household, employed friends, general and job search-specific social support). We find no empirical support for the causal pathway hypothesis and only very limited support for the buffering hypothesis.     

Hypothesis testing in path models

The three prior criteria for linear recursive causal (path) model evaluation are shown to be equivalent to a more general technique. Hotelling's T² is introduced as a means of evaluating general hypotheses for the entire model, and some consequences of treating the model as a whole are discussed. The “twice standard error” rule is shown to be misleading for a number of reasons. An example of the application of the procedure and the computational technique is given, and some additional applications are suggested.     

激励系统的解释结构模型研究

管理学、经济学激励研究假设的不同带来了理论共享的困难。本文从系统理论出发,以当前广泛应用的激励理论为先验知识,利用解释结构模型法,构建了系统激励结构模型。该模型对管理学、经济学的研究内容进行了有机结合,为应用者提供更宽泛的激励思路和方法。同时,笔者在该模型基础上,讨论了检验激励有效性的重要环节,提出了我国国有企业激励设计中应考虑的重点问题。     

Motivation vs. relevance: Using strong ties to find a job in Urban China

While the idea that contacts matter in finding a job is intuitively appealing, we still do not know—after decades of research—how and why strong ties benefit job seekers. To resolve this confusion, we need to theorize how specific characteristics of ties are related to the mechanisms that make job search through contacts effective. We have reasons to expect that, while a contact’s motivation influences the likelihood that a job seeker receives an offer, her homophily with the job seeker on occupation and other job-relevant attributes influences the quality of the offer. The use of strong ties among university students to find jobs in China provides a unique opportunity to empirically isolate the relationship between contact characteristics and the mechanisms through which contacts benefit the job seeker. I tested my hypotheses with data on both the successful and unsuccessful job searches of 478 graduates of China’s flagship universities, who, as first-time job seekers, primarily used strong ties. Survey results are consistent with my hypotheses: job seekers who used strong ties to look for jobs had more offers—but not better offers—than those who used only formal methods.     

The impact of attitudes and behavioral costs on environmental behavior: A natural experiment on household waste recycling

Numerous studies have shown the importance of incentives as well as of attitudes in explaining pro-environmental behavior. Reported attitude effects, however, are generally rather small and exhibit considerable variation among studies. Different theoretical perspectives can account for this finding: whereas theories of rational action suggest additive effects of costs and attitudes, the low-cost hypothesis and dual-process theories imply interaction effects - in different directions, resulting from different mechanisms. The present study tries to overcome the shortcomings of past research by using advanced statistical methods to test competitive hypotheses in the context of post-consumer waste recycling. We utilize data from a natural experiment on recycling participation in Cologne/Germany (n = 1882) in which the incentive structure for recycling changed due to the conversion of the recycling scheme from a drop-off system to curbside collection. In order to avoid self-selection bias, we conducted pre- and post-treatment surveys and applied conditional fixed-effects regression models. We found that curbside collection had a strong impact on recycling participation and attitudes had a moderate effect. The interaction is negative but statistically insignificant. Our findings contradict the low-cost hypothesis and provide some evidence that environmental concerns moderate the effect of the recycling scheme. We cannot, however, reject the rational choice proposition of mere additive effects.     

Welfare myths: The transmission of values and work among TANF families

Both “welfare culture” arguments and structural explanations of poverty suggest that attitudes may have an effect on work and welfare outcomes. However, most scholars only examine objective behaviors and characteristics despite the fact that values are an underlying mechanism in explanations of the transmission of welfare and work behavior. Using data from a survey of recent welfare recipients in Louisiana and structural equation methods, we analyze causal relationships among family background, socioeconomic characteristics, attitudes, and two outcomes—TANF participation and employment. We find some support for the intergenerational transmission of welfare but not through values; we find no evidence that under the TANF system, values inhibit work.     

Balanced designs for triads tests: Two examples from English

In this paper we study two semantic domains in English, kinship and vegetables, using a new procedure for triads testing, the balanced incomplete block design. This procedure allows the use of triads tests on larger sets of words than had previously been possible. Included is a table of balanced incomplete block designs for the use of interested researchers.     

How to rig your results with a fancy coding scheme

Two types of multivariate methods are distinguished from one another: structure-seeking methods and causal modeling. The former is particularly susceptible to coding artifacts based on improper use of dummy variables or of ranking procedures. Solutions for both problems are suggested.     

The probability of premarital intercourse

Data on sexual behavior collected retrospectively in a national probability sample survey of females aged 15–19 make it possible, using life table techniques, to compute the probability of having intercourse prior to marriage. Estimates are provided for whites and blacks, for the synthetic cohort based on all five ages combined, and separately for each cohort, i.e., those currently aged 15, aged 16, etc. In addition, minimum and maximum estimates, based on different assumptions regarding ever married females, are also included.     

Preference effects on friendship choice: Evidence from an online field experiment

Observed friendship choices are constrained by social structures and thus problematic indicators for underlying personal preferences. In this paper, we report on a study demonstrating the causal effects of preference in friendship choice based on an online field experiment. Specifically, we tested two important forces that govern friendship choices: preference for shared group identity (operationalized as the desire to befriend others sharing the same place-of-origin identity) and preference for high status (operationalized as the desire to befriend others from high-status institutions). Using an online field experiment in one of the largest social network service websites in China, we investigated the causal preference effects of these two forces free from structural constraints. The results of our study confirm the preference effects on friendship choice in both of the two dimensions we tested.     

How beauty works. Theoretical mechanisms and two empirical applications on students' evaluation of teaching

Plenty of studies show that the physical appearance of a person affects a variety of outcomes in everyday life. However, due to an incomplete theoretical explication and empirical problems in disentangling different beauty effects, it is unclear which mechanisms are at work. To clarify how beauty works we present explanations from evolutionary theory and expectation states theory and show where both perspectives differ and where interlinkage appears promising. Using students' evaluations of teaching we find observational and experimental evidence for the different causal pathways of physical attractiveness. First, independent raters strongly agree over the physical attractiveness of a person. Second, attractive instructors receive better student ratings. Third, students attend classes of attractive instructors more frequently – even after controlling for teaching quality. Fourth, we find no evidence that attractiveness effects become stronger if rater and ratee are of the opposite sex. Finally, the beauty premium turns into a penalty if an attractive instructor falls short of students' expectations.     

建筑施工企业的成本管理探析

文章从当前的建筑市场现状入手,阐述了建筑施工单位企业成本管理的内涵,分析了现行成本管理模式中存在的问题。并联系国际管理体系的思想和方法推行一套符合国内实际的成本管理措施,包括推行全面的成本管理、建立可测量的目标分解、加强考核和奖惩、明确各有关部门的职责和权限、建立严密的成本管理体系、加强成本管理的全过程控制并推行信息化管理等一系列的措施,从而使建筑施工企业的成本管理更加有效,更加适应市场发展的要求。     

举贤任能 鼎峙江东──试论孙权的人才政策

千百年来，历代史家大多或扬魏抑蜀，或尊刘贬曹，但是都将鼎足而立的吴国和 吴主孙权作了陪衬。这是有失偏颇的。孙权一生得人、识人、用人的历史及其人才政策的进步 因素，可从吴国之所以形成、发展并能与魏、蜀两国长期抗衡中窥见一斑。     

Studying categorical data over time

A review of recently developed simple techniques for analyzing data in the form of proportions from replicated, cross-sectional, sample surveys. (A) One variable over time—tests for homogeneity, pooling homogeneous proportions, tests for linear trends with as few as three time points, tests for departures from linearity; (B) Two variables with a constant percentage difference—four fold tables as rudimentary causal models, decomposing change with linear flow graphs; (C) Extension of the flow graph techniques to—three or more variables and changing coefficients; (D) Comments implying panel designs are somewhat over-rated and successive cross-sections somewhat under-rated.     

Developing spatial inequalities in carbon appropriation: A sociological analysis of changing local emissions across the United States

This study examines an overlooked dynamic in sociological research on greenhouse gas emissions: how local areas appropriate the global carbon cycle for use and exchange purposes as they develop. Drawing on theories of place and space, we hypothesize that development differentially drives and spatially decouples use- and exchange-oriented emissions at the local level. To test our hypotheses, we integrate longitudinal, county-level data on residential and industrial emissions from the Vulcan Project with demographic, economic and environmental data from the U.S. Census Bureau and National Land Change Database. Results from spatial regression models with two-way fixed-effects indicate that alongside innovations and efficiencies capable of reducing environmentally harmful effects of development comes a spatial disarticulation between carbon-intensive production and consumption within as well as across societies. Implications for existing theory, methods and policy are discussed.     

The social context of assimilation: testing implications of segmented assimilation theory

Segmented assimilation theory has been a popular explanation for the diverse experiences of assimilation among new waves of immigrants and their children. While the theory has been interpreted in many different ways, we emphasize its implications for the important role of social context: both processes and consequences of assimilation should depend on the local social context in which immigrants are embedded. We derive empirically falsifiable hypotheses about the interaction effects between social context and assimilation on immigrant children’s well-being. We then test the hypotheses using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Our empirical analyses yield two main findings. First, for immigrant adolescents living in non-poverty neighborhoods, we find assimilation to be positively associated with educational achievement and psychological well-being but also positively associated with at-risk behavior. Second, there is little empirical evidence supporting our hypotheses derived from segmented assimilation theory. We interpret these results to mean that future research would be more fruitful focusing on differential processes of assimilation rather than differential consequences of assimilation.     

Verbal Ability and Socioeconomic Success: A Trend Analysis

Along with other recent analyses of American social structure, Herrnstein and Murray'sThe Bell Curveoffers several hypotheses about the increasing centrality of cognitive ability in social stratification during the 20th century. These include growing cognitive sorting in education, occupational standing, and income and—by implication—increasing stratification of children's cognitive ability by their social and economic background. However, Herrnstein and Murray provide scant evidence of growth in cognitive sorting. Using data from the General Social Survey, we test each of these hypotheses using a short verbal ability test which was administered to about 12,500 American adults between 1974 and 1994. While weaknesses of the verbal ability test preclude definitive conclusions, they provide no support whatever for any of the trend hypotheses advanced by Herrnstein and Murray.