Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect*

Objective. In this research, the presidential election cycle hypothesis is evaluated within the context of the turn‐of‐the‐month effect found in stock returns. Methods. Returns from the daily Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, and the NASDAQ Composite index are grouped into turn‐of‐the month returns and non‐turn‐of‐the‐month returns. Statistical comparisons are conducted to evaluate the returns based on administration subperiod, temporal subperiod, and party affiliation. Results. The results provide evidence of higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms. The higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns account for most of the additional returns found in the second half of presidential terms evidenced in prior research. Conclusions. The persistent higher investment returns for stocks found in the second half of presidential terms can be linked to fiscal and administrative policies that increase household liquidity prior to elections. Incumbents attempt to influence voter choice and energize core constituencies by increasing household liquidity prior to elections through fiscal and administrative policies. These actions create higher turn‐of the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms, which generate additional overall investment returns for the period.     

On Inter‐ and Intra‐Individual Redistribution of the Welfare State*

Objective. The redistributive effect of the welfare state is traditionally measured by comparing the gross and net distribution of annual income among adults. This standard approach does not account for the fact that a large share of the taxes paid by adults are paid back to the very same individuals later in life. The objective of this article is to examine the factors that determine the difference between redistribution according to the standard approach and redistribution of lifetime incomes. I also discuss under what circumstances intra‐individual redistribution is beneficial for low‐income earners. Methods. A formal model of a simple welfare state in a society with low‐ and high‐income earners is used to describe inequality of gross and net income among adults and for complete lifetime incomes. The model is calibrated with data describing the Swedish welfare state. Results. Theoretically, the redistribution of lifetime income can be bigger or smaller than the redistribution indicated by the standard approach. Swedish data suggest that most welfare states are more redistributive when a lifetime perspective is used compared to the standard approach. Conclusions. Most of the redistribution carried out by modern welfare states is so‐called intra‐individual redistribution. Compared to the situation that would arise without the welfare state, intra‐individual redistribution is likely to be favorable for low‐income earners because it compensates for inequalities in the distribution of assets and access to capital markets.     

Interstate Competition and Environmental Regulation: A Test of the Race‐to‐the‐Bottom Thesis*

Objective. This study assesses the effect of interstate competition on the stringency with which states enforce environmental regulations. Method. Pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis of state surface‐mining regulation is used to determine if the enforcement gap between a state and competitor states affects the stringency of state enforcement. Results. The results suggest that state enforcement is systematically affected by the behavior of regional competitors. States adjust their enforcement in response to competitor states when their enforcement stringency exceeds that of their competitors. When competitors' enforcement is more stringent, however, their behavior does not have a significant effect. Conclusion. This study provides empirical evidence for a race to the bottom in state environmental regulation.     

The Role of Non‐profit Organizations in the Mixed Economy of Welfare‐to‐Work in the UK and Australia

This article charts the development of welfare‐to‐work policies and compares and contrasts the traditions of delivery in the UK and Australia. We find that in the UK, employment services and social security benefit administration have been dominated by the central state, traditionally affording a key role to civil servants as direct delivery agents. However, in federal Australia, mixed economies of welfare‐to‐work operate in the different states, there is a far greater role for social services and non‐profit organizations are firmly established as key providers of frontline employment services. Since the late 1990s, UK welfare reforms have been gradually following the Australian lead in contracting non‐state actors as delivery agents. As this trend seems set to continue and intensify, we examine the Australian experience in order to reflect on the role of non‐profits in policy reform.     

Putting the child at the centre of inter‐professional cooperation in out‐of‐home care

A large part of most children's childhood is about taking part in educational and leisure‐time activities together with other children across various contexts. However, children in out‐of‐home care do not always have easy access to these possibilities for participation. In general, parents coordinate their children's everyday lives, but in the case of children in out‐of‐home care, the responsibility of care is distributed between several professionals and institutions. Research often recommends that inter‐professional cooperation should put the child at the centre and be more child focused. But what does that mean? The paper investigates theoretical understandings of ‘child centredness’ in inter‐professional cooperation. It also includes an empirical example taken from a research project that followed four children in their everyday lives in two residential homes in Denmark. The research explored how professionals work together across contexts in order to support children to take part in school and leisure‐time activities. The overall reasoning leads to the point that for children in out‐of‐home care, the possibility of exercising personal agency in their everyday life constitutes a difficult but vital issue. How children in out‐of‐home care learn how to conduct their everyday lives, is closely related to the ways professionals cooperate across contexts. It points to the need for close inter‐professional cooperation in order to encourage and support children's initiatives and engagements in activities in communities with other children.     

Wal‐Mart and County‐Wide Poverty*

Objectives. This study seeks to identify the independent effect of Wal‐Mart stores on changes in U.S. family‐poverty rates at the county level. We draw on the contributions of a number of disciplines to enhance our understanding of the broader forces that influence poverty. Methods. A key innovation is that we estimate a two‐stage regression model, in which an instrument is created for new Wal‐Mart stores from a location equation; this reduces any potential endogeneity bias in the poverty‐change equation. In addition, we use spatial econometric methods to correct for spatial dependence bias. Results. After controlling for other factors determining changes in the poverty rate over time, we find that counties with more initial (1987) Wal‐Mart stores and counties with more additions of stores between 1987 and 1998 experienced greater increases (or smaller decreases) in family‐poverty rates during the 1990s economic boom period. Conclusions. Wal‐Mart creates both benefits and costs to communities in which the chain locates. These benefits and costs need to be weighed carefully by community decisionmakers in deciding whether to provide public subsidies to the chain.     

Two‐generation preschool programme: immediate and 7‐year‐old outcomes for low‐income children and their parents

Preschool children living in low‐income families are at increased risk for poor outcomes; early intervention programmes mitigate these risks. While there is considerable evidence of the effectiveness of centre‐based programmes in other jurisdictions, there is limited research about Canadian programmes, specifically programmes that include children and parents. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a single‐site, two‐generation preschool demonstration programme for low‐income families in Canada. A single group, pre‐test (programme intake) /post‐test (programme exit) design with a 7‐year‐old follow‐up was used. Between intake and exit, significant improvements in receptive language and global development were found among the children, and significant improvements in self‐esteem, use of community resources, parenting stress and risk for child maltreatment were found among the parents. These positive improvements were sustained until the children were 7 years old. Public investment in two‐generation preschool programmes may mitigate risks for suboptimal child development and improve parental psychosocial outcomes.     

Thirteen‐ and 18‐month‐old Infants Recognize When They Need Referential Information

To learn from conspecifics, infants would be greatly advantaged by knowing when to seek information from them. Although in prior work infants used a labeler's gaze direction to infer the referent of a novel label, it was unclear whether infants in these studies recognized that they needed information or were happening upon the information by simply orienting to the labeler's voice. To address this issue, we presented 13‐ and 18‐month‐olds with either one or two novel objects and provided a novel label. If infants seek referential information, they should look more to the labeler in the presence of two objects relative to one object, because the labeler's intended referent is highly ambiguous in the two‐object case. This prediction was confirmed in two studies. In contrast, infants' looking was equivalent in the presence of one vs. two objects in a baseline phase, when no labels were provided. Thus, 13‐ and 18‐month‐olds actively seek clarifying gaze information to resolve ambiguous learning situations. Word learning appears to be a rich pragmatic process as early as the end of the first year of life.     

Children's competent social‐problem solving across the preschool‐to‐school transition: Developmental changes and links with early parenting

What is the developmental course of competent social‐problem solving (CSPS) across childhood? In this study, we sought to answer this question by tracing the development of multiple components of CSPS across 4 years spanning pre‐kindergarten to early grade 3. We also examined whether early positive parenting and sociodemographic factors predicted initial level and growth in CSPS in a sample of 585 children (52% female, 26% lower socioeconomic status, and 17% ethnic minority) and their families. CSPS components (response generation, evaluation, and efficacy) were assessed the summers prior to kindergarten and grades 1, 2, and 3. Positive parenting (warmth, involvement, and guidance) was measured the summer before kindergarten. Multilevel growth models revealed significant linear increases for CSPS, and there was some evidence that these increases were modestly related to early positive parenting and sociodemographic factors. Results underscore the importance of examining CSPS within a developmental perspective.     

Economic well‐being of low‐income single‐mother families following welfare reform in the USA

This study explored changes in net disposable income for low‐income single‐mother families before and after the 1996 welfare reform in the USA. Although many studies on welfare reform have focused on employment or total family income as a way to measure low‐income single‐mother families’ economic well‐being, little is known about their net income after expenses related to entering the workforce. This study analyzed net disposable income after tax deductions and childcare costs to provide a more accurate understanding of income changes using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the US Census Bureau. The results revealed that while low‐income single mothers were working more after welfare reform, their net disposable income decreased during this time because their earnings were low and offset by an increase in childcare costs and a decline in means‐tested benefits, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families benefits. Key Practitioner Message: ● To understand effects of the 1996 welfare reform on low‐income families’ economic well‐being; ● To understand comprehensive income sources and work related expenses of low‐income families; ● To provide policy suggestions for comprehensive childcare subsidies to support low‐income single mothers’ employment.     

Stability and change – a 7‐ to 8‐year follow‐up study of mental health problems in Norwegian children in long‐term out‐of‐home care

The aim of the study was to explore stability and change in mental health problems in Norwegian children aged 6–12 years old (n = 70) in long‐term out‐of‐home care. The children's mental health problems were assessed shortly after the placement and 7–8 years later by the caregivers and the teachers on the Revised Rutter Scales. Information on pre‐placement and placement factors were collected from the child welfare workers. At a group level the children's mental health problems had improved significantly over time according to the teachers' reports. According to the caregivers' reports, however, the children's problems were high and stable across time. Analyses aimed at detecting individual changes revealed a great variability in development according to both informants, indicating that treating the placed children as a homogenous group could be misleading. Several pre‐placement and placement variables were associated with the change in the children's mental health problems from the time of placement to the follow‐up time according to both informants' reports. However, all the predictors were accounted for by the strong effect of the children's problem scores when entering care.     

Limited Nomination Reliability Using Single‐ and Multiple‐item Measures

This article examines a variety of reliability issues as related to limited nomination sociometric measures. Peer nomination data were collected from 77 sixth grade classrooms. Results showed that, although some single‐item peer nomination measures were relatively reliable, many single‐item peer nomination measures using limited nominations were quite unreliable. Overt aggression nomination items were the only set of single‐item measures where mean classroom reliability estimates were .75 or greater. Combining multiple items led to substantially better reliability, as combining the two least reliable items for a category into a single measure made the composite more reliable than the most reliable single measure. Having more nominators in the sample also increased reliability. The limited nomination items overall tended to be less reliable than similar unlimited nomination items from other studies. The authors end with recommendations for obtaining the most reliable peer nomination data possible from a study.     

Regulating the delivery of cash‐for‐care payments across Europe

The article aims to understand how governments across Europe have modified the regulation of the delivery of cash‐for‐care schemes (CfCs) to dependent older people since the beginning of the century. In our terminology, the regulation of the CfCs delivery defines the norms, rules, and practices that public actors adopt to manage how beneficiaries can use the benefits. To discuss the regulation of CfCs delivery, we employ an original framework that take three analytical dimensions into account: the degrees of freedom in benefits' utilization (“CfCs utilization” dimension), the provision of information/orientation/advices/counselling to older people and families (“professional support” dimension), and the relationship between the delivery of CfCs and the delivery of the other publicly funded long‐term care inputs (“care system” dimension). The analysis adopts a comparative perspective, looking at six countries—Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, France, Germany, and England. Among various findings, the main one consists in showing that there has been a shared and increased interest in consolidating the regulation of CfCs delivery. This trend has been mostly directed towards the new policy aim of strengthening the professional support, a goal underestimated in the past, when this dimension was not a major topic of both debate and practice concerning CfCs across Europe.