The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth

The old age security approach is used to study the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and capital accumulation, within a Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework. It is shown that a decentralized economy will fail, in general, to achieve the Pareto optimal path. However, a pay-as-you-go social security scheme in which the old get transfers which are proportional to the number of their children may restore optimality. On the other hand, child support systems or subsidies to capital can guarantee the optimal capital: labor ratio, but not the optimal population growth rate, while a lump sum social security system can guarantee the optimal population growth rate, but not the optimal capital: labor ratio. Finally, in a monetary economy any policy aimed at correcting the interest rate will restore full optimality.An earlier version of this paper was written during a visit to the University of California, San Diego. The paper benefited from the comments of two referees.     

生育率最优路径、劳动力供给转型与经济增长

通过内生化劳动力和人力资本,以Q-Q理论为基础,根据生育率在劳动力供给和人力资本积累中的联动关系以及劳动力供给转型规律,利用动态最优控制原理,解释了殖民解放以来发展中国家先上升后下降的人口再生产过程及经济效应。结果表明:生育率的最优路径呈倒U型;整个路径存在两个鞍点均衡,只有当人力资本积累跨越某个门槛值时,第一个鞍点均衡才能过渡到另一个鞍点均衡;均衡的产出水平与劳动力折旧率成正比,与人力资本折旧率成反比。     

Pay-as-you-go social security and endogenous fertility in a neoclassical growth model

This paper theoretically studies how unfunded pay-as-you-go social security affects economic growth, the fertility rate, and welfare in a neoclassical growth model. In addition, this paper considers a more general form of child-rearing cost, which is a mixture of time and money. The first observation is that whether the fertility rate increases or not by the expansion of the pay-as-you-go social security depends on (1) the size of the monetary child-rearing cost relative to the time spent on child-rearing and (2) the current fertility and interest rate in laissez faire. The second observation is that income per worker can increase by an expansion in pay-as-you-go social security when the output elasticity of capital is sufficiently small and the payroll tax rate is high. The last finding is that welfare can be improved even though capital is underaccumulated in an economy.     

The impact of taxation on the distribution of wealth in an economy with changing population

The paper investigates into the determinants of the personal distribution of income and wealth. In an overlapping generations model all individuals are assumed to be identical except for their inherited wealth. Since life time is random the bequest of an individual and thus the inherited stock of capital of its children are stochastic variables. Taxation and social security contributions affect life cycle savings, bequests, and, eventually, the distribution of income and wealth in the society. It is shown that, in general, higher tax rates reduce distributive inequality as long as the rate of interest is exogenously given. In steady state, however, where the rate of interest is determined endogenously, increasing taxation and higher social security payments both diminish the capital labor ratio so that the rate of interest rises. If this interest effect is strong enough then it may outbalance the tendency toward more equality because higher interest rates enhance initial differences in the distribution of both income and wealth and, eventually, the inequality in the distribution of income and wealth in the society.     

西方国家社会保障制度对经济发展的影响

西方国家的社会保障制度对经济发展产生了深远的影响。一方面 ,社会保障给经济发展创造了良好的环境 ,使劳动力再生产得以正常进行 ,促进了第三产业的发展 ,解决了一批人的就业问题 ,促进了经济向前发展 ;但另一方面 ,它增加了政府开支 ,导致越来越多的经济资源用于消费 ,影响了资本积累 ,出现积累基金与消费基金比例失调 ,使经济发展失去了动力 ,又阻碍了经济发展。社会保障制度的发展必须考虑经济增长的实际状况 ,使二者保持正常比例 ,才能使社会保障制度发挥应有的作用。     

Social security,social welfare and the aging population

This study examines the effects of pay-as-you-go social security programs in aging economies when the middle-aged both educate their dependent children and subsidize the retirement of the old. Using an overlapping generations framework in which agents are three-period lived but timing of death in the third period is uncertain, we analyze the effects of social security tax schemes, under various demographic assumptions, on capital accumulation, education expenditures, social welfare, and economic growth. We find that in many cases social security crowds out education, and reduces economic growth and social welfare. Received: 29 April 1998/Accepted: 3 March 1999     

Reducing the excess burden of subsidizing the stork: joint taxation, individual taxation, and family tax splitting

Analyzing a homogenous household setting with endogenous fertility and endogenous labor supply, we demonstrate that moving from joint taxation to individual taxation and adapting child benefits so as to keep fertility constant entails a Pareto improvement. The change is associated with an increase in labor supply and consumption and a reduction of the marginal income tax, while the child benefit may move in either direction. Similarly, a move from joint taxation to some scheme of family tax splitting increases labor supply and welfare.     

On social security financial crisis

We indicate that financial crisis in social security programs might be endogenous because social security affects fertility and human capital's decisions and thus, the aggregate growth rate of the economy. These effects lead to an endogenous erosion of the financial basis of the PAYG social security program so that, as a consequence, the PAYG system is not sustainable and it requires continuous increases in the social security tax rate. I received helpful comments in an earlier version of this paper from G.S. Becker, Larry Sjaastad, two anonymous referees and participants at seminars at Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile and The University of Chicago. Remaining errors are my own responsibility. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

我国人口老龄化对经济社会的宏观和微观影响研究

2000年,我国步入人口老龄化社会。伴随着老龄化进程的加快,人口老龄化对我国经济社会发展造成一定的影响,其宏观影响主要涵盖以下几方面:减少劳动力有效供给,减缓劳动生产率速度提高,影响产业结构调整,带来储蓄率的下降、引起消费水平的变化和加重养老保障的负担等。其微观影响主要包括:改变企业劳动力的供给和成本,加重企业养老金支付负担,同时人口老龄化对老年人的基本生活产生一系列的影响。     

Effects of capital taxation on economies with different demographic changes: short term versus long term

We examine the effect of source-based capital taxation on capital accumulation in countries with endogenous fertility and free international capital mobility. When fertility is constant, a tax cut accelerates domestic capital accumulation through international arbitrage and exerts negative influences on the welfare of a foreign country. In contrast, with endogenous fertility, a tax cut by an economy with a higher tax rate and exporting capital may deter capital accumulation and hence lower the welfare in not only domestic but also foreign economies in the long term, although the tax cut may accelerate domestic capital accumulation in the short term.     

养老保险现收现付制的挤出效应——一个内生生育率模型

文章在一个内生经济增长的OLG模型框架下研究现收现付制养老保险计划的挤出效应。具体考察公共养老金税率变动对家庭的消费与储蓄、生育选择以及经济增长的长期影响。结果表明,存在向上利他动机的情况下,挤出效应的大小取决于养老基金的规模,适度规模的公共养老金计划不会挤出私人储蓄。而有利于消费增加与经济增长;较大规模的公共养老金计划会对私人自愿储蓄与消费产生负面影响,并且对储蓄的挤出作用要大于对消费的挤出。人口老龄化进程在一定程度上缓解挤出效应,促进资本积累与经济增长。     

Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy

This paper analyzes a social security policy with public debt in an overlapping generations growth model. In particular, the paper considers a situation in which population aging causes a heavy burden of social security payments where public debt is issued by the government to finance the payment. In the model presented below, an economy with an aging population may achieve two dynamically inefficient equilibria. Under certain conditions, the effects of pension reform and population aging on capital accumulation are entirely different between the two equilibria. Received: 23 July 2001/Accepted: 22 August 2002 I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee and Professor A. Cigno, the Editor of this journal, for their valuable comments and suggestions. I am also grateful to Kazuyo Tanimoto and Kiheiji Nishida for their research assistance. Any remaining errors are my own. The research reported here was conducted as part of a larger study, the “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Financial support from Kani Hoken Bunka Zaidan is also gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

An analysis of population growth in Romania]

After liberation in Romania the high birth rate, high mortality rate, and high population growth rate pattern changed to a low birth rate, low mortality rate, and low growth rate pattern. Higher standard of living and educational level, the increasing involvement of women in social and economic activities, the rapid development of cities, and the lower infant mortality rate are the 4 main factors responsible for this development. Consequently, Romania is facing a problem of increasing labor shortages. People who would otherwise be in the labor force are in school to allow the rapid development in science and technology. The increasing proportion of older retirees in the population also decreases the labor supply. Agricultural mechanization has provided labor to support industrialization in the past. Future increases will emphasize irrigation and soil improvement rather than mechanization. The Romanian government has established 6 new laws to stimulate population growth. First, award bonuses to families with more children and tax childless couples. Second, eliminate factors destabilizing families, preference to young couples, and restrict abortion and divorce. Third, protect women's societal rights through bonuses to mothers and paid maternity leave to pregnant women. Fourth, reduce mortality rate and improve people's health and life span. Fifth, better utilize the labor force and redistribute the population by economic methods. Six, use longterm procedures to achieve the best population structure and to have a younger population.     

欧盟劳动力税收和救济金制度改革及其影响

欧洲传统的福利制度造成了贫困陷阱和财政陷阱的产生,为了增加劳动力供给和鼓励就业,欧盟对劳动力税收和救济金制度进行了全面的改革。欧盟主要针对失业保险制度和社会救济金政策、最低工资政策、提前退休制度、个人所得税和社会保险税减免政策以及对有孩子家庭的激励政策等方面进行了改革。对改革的成效分析可以清楚地看到改革对劳动力供给和需求所带来的影响和效果。     

Some fundamental problems concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development]

The population growth rate is closely related to the quality of economic life, available funds for individual and social consumption, national income to be used for reproduction, and the labor employment situation. Since liberation, socialism has not been able to show its superiority, mainly because of China's large population figure, low economic productivity, low national income, and poor management in the relationship between consumption and accumulation. In order to solve these problems, we need to adequately control the pace of the population growth and match the rate of population growth with the pace of economic development. A way to increase national income is through saving and avoiding unnecessary waste. Social expenditures on education, culture, science, health and medical care, social welfare, and investment in the promotion of people's wisdom should all be increased. Meanwhile, the living standard of the people needs to be raised, and capital accumulation should also be managed so that funds will be available for industrial and economic enterprises. Existing inefficient production enterprises should be properly reorganized so that full employment may be achieved. In this way, the national economy will have more prosperity, and the people will benefit more from the Socialist policy.     

Trade, population growth, and the environment in developing countries

We examine pollution in a developing country where fertility is endogenous and wealth increases welfare through status. When the country has defective environmental laws, it has a comparative advantage in capital-intensive “dirty” goods. Gains from trade due to trade liberalization then increase income and boost population growth. With strong incentives to save, they also stimulate investment, which hampers population growth. Because population growth crowds out labor supply, production of capital-intensive dirty goods first increases and then decreases. This yields a typical environmental Kuznets path: pollution increases at the earlier stages but decreases at the later stages of development.     

Physical capital taxation and labor income taxation in an endogenous growth model with new generations

This paper examines the growth and welfare effects of physical capital taxation and labor income taxation. It is found that the impact of a rise in the physical capital tax rate on the balanced growth rate is crucially related to the birth rate, but a rise in the labor income tax rate definitely reduces the balanced growth rate regardless of the birth rate. It is also found that an increase in the physical capital income tax rate will harm the older but will benefit the younger, while an increase in the labor income tax rate will benefit the older but will harm the younger.

人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应--论中国增长可持续性的人口因素

人口转变是挑战中国经济持续增长的一个重要因素.在这个过程中,个人的生命周期和代际更替之间的相互叠加,通过劳动供给、储蓄和科技进步等渠道对长期经济增长施加影响.本文分析表明,人口转变使得中国从20世纪60年代中期开始享受人口红利,并一直持续到2015年前后.为了迎接人口老龄化冲击,中国需要通过扩大就业、加快人力资本积累和建立适合于中国国情的可持续的养老保障模式三条途径来充分挖掘未来潜在的人口红利,推动中国经济持续增长.     

中国人口结构变动与制造业出口结构优化

本文首先从理论上分析了人口结构变动对出口比较优势的影响，然后利用中国2001—2010年28个制造业和人口结构数据，采用交叉项方法实证研究了人口结构少子化和老龄化变动趋势对出口结构优化的影响。结果发现少子化使未来劳动力供给和消费减少、储蓄和投资增加；老龄化使劳动效率下降，居民预防性储蓄增加。人口结构变动使资本素变得相对充裕，劳动素相对稀缺，促使出口结构实现优化升级，由劳动密集型商品出口为主向资本密集型商品转移。     

论费改税视角下我国社会保障税的开征

随着我国费改税的进一步推进,我国已经具备开征社会保障税的条件,开征社会保障税不但能促进我国税制结构更加趋于合理,更有效的筹集社会保障资金,而且也符合我国税费制度改革和社会保障制度改革的大趋势。