Estimation of Long Memory in Integrated Variance

A stylized fact is that realized variance has long memory. We show that, when the instantaneous volatility is a long memory process of order d, the integrated variance is characterized by the same long-range dependence. We prove that the spectral density of realized variance is given by the sum of the spectral density of the integrated variance plus that of a measurement error, due to the sparse sampling and market microstructure noise. Hence, the realized volatility has the same degree of long memory as the integrated variance. The additional term in the spectral density induces a finite-sample bias in the semiparametric estimates of the long memory. A Monte Carlo simulation provides evidence that the corrected local Whittle estimator of Hurvich et al. (2005 Hurvich , C. M. , Moulines , E. , Soulier , P. ( 2005 ). Estimating long memory in volatility . Econometrica 73 ( 4 ): 1283 – 1328 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is much less biased than the standard local Whittle estimator and the empirical application shows that it is robust to the choice of the sampling frequency used to compute the realized variance. Finally, the empirical results suggest that the volatility series are more likely to be generated by a nonstationary fractional process.     

GMM inference in spatial autoregressive models

In this study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the optimal generalized method of moments estimator (OGMME) for a spatial econometric model with a first-order spatial autoregressive process in the dependent variable and the disturbance term (for short SARAR(1, 1)). We show that the estimated asymptotic standard errors for spatial autoregressive parameters can be substantially smaller than their empirical counterparts. Hence, we extend the finite sample variance correction methodology of Windmeijer (2005 Windmeijer, F. (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators. Journal of Econometrics 126(1):25–51.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the OGMME for the SARAR(1, 1) model. Results from simulation studies indicate that the correction method improves the variance estimates in small samples and leads to more accurate inference for the spatial autoregressive parameters. For the same model, we compare the finite sample properties of various test statistics for linear restrictions on autoregressive parameters. These tests include the standard asymptotic Wald test based on various GMMEs, a bootstrapped version of the Wald test, two versions of the C(α) test, the standard Lagrange multiplier (LM) test, the minimum chi-square test (MC), and two versions of the generalized method of moments (GMM) criterion test. Finally, we study the finite sample properties of effects estimators that show how changes in explanatory variables impact the dependent variable.     

A Note on Unit Root Tests and GARCH Errors: A Simulation Experiment

This article re-examines the Monte Carlo experiments in Seo (1999 Seo , B. ( 1999 ). Distribution theory for unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity . J. Econometrics 91 : 113 – 144 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) for unit root tests with GARCH errors. We report a Monte Carlo study with data generated from various GARCH(1, 1) processes where 0.8 ≤ α + β < 1 and β > α. In this case, the Dickey–Fuller test works better than the Seo test.     

Heteroskedasticity Robust Panel Unit Root Testing Under Variance Breaks in Pooled Regressions

Noting that many economic variables display occasional shifts in their second order moments, we investigate the performance of homogenous panel unit root tests in the presence of permanent volatility shifts. It is shown that in this case the test statistic proposed by Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008 Herwartz, H., Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53(1):137–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is asymptotically standard Gaussian. By means of a simulation study we illustrate the performance of first and second generation panel unit root tests and undertake a more detailed comparison of the test in Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008 Herwartz, H., Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53(1):137–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and its heteroskedasticity consistent Cauchy counterpart introduced in Demetrescu and Hanck (2012a Demetrescu, M., Hanck, C. (2012a). A simple nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root test. Economics Letters 117(2):10–13.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). As an empirical illustration, we reassess evidence on the Fisher hypothesis with data from nine countries over the period 1961Q2–2011Q2. Empirical evidence supports panel stationarity of the real interest rate for the entire subperiod. With regard to the most recent two decades, the test results cast doubts on market integration, since the real interest rate is diagnosed nonstationary.     

A Meta Analytic Approach to Testing for Panel Cointegration

We propose new tests for panel cointegration by extending the panel unit root tests of Choi (2001 Choi , I. ( 2001 ). Unit root tests for panel data . Journal of International Money and Finance 20 ( 2 ): 249 – 272 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Maddala and Wu (1999 Maddala , G. , Wu , S. ( 1999 ). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 ( S1 ): 631 – 652 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) to the panel cointegration case. The tests are flexible, intuitively appealing, and relatively easy to compute. We investigate the finite sample behavior in a simulation study. Several variants of the tests compare favorably in terms of both size and power with other widely used panel cointegration tests.     

Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Break Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Outliers and Breaks

Unit root tests with structural break developed by Zivot and Andrews (1992 Zivot , E. , Andrews , D. W. K. ( 1992 ). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10 : 251 – 270 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Perron and Rodriguez (2003 Perron , P. , Rodriguez , G. ( 2003 ). GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change . Journal of Econometrics 115 : 1 – 27 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in the presence of additive outliers and breaks are studied by simulation experiments. The results show that the Zivot–Andrews test appears to have size distortions due to the additive outliers whereas the Perron–Rodriguez test exhibits good properties of size and power. However, the two tests are biased when a second break is present but not taken into account. Furthermore, these endogenous break unit root tests tend to determine the break point incorrectly at one period behind the true break point, leading to spurious rejections of the unit root null hypothesis.     

Testing for Unit Roots and the Impact of Quadratic Trends,with an Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices

In practice a degree of uncertainty will always exist concerning what specification to adopt for the deterministic trend function when running unit root tests. While most macroeconomic time series appear to display an underlying trend, it is often far from clear whether this component is best modeled as a simple linear trend (so that long-run growth rates are constant) or by a more complicated nonlinear trend function which may, for instance, allow the deterministic trend component to evolve gradually over time. In this article, we consider the effects on unit root testing of allowing for a local quadratic trend, a simple yet very flexible example of the latter. Where a local quadratic trend is present but not modeled, we show that the quasi-differenced detrended Dickey–Fuller-type test of Elliott et al. (1996 Elliott , G. , Rothenberg , T. J. , Stock , J. H. ( 1996 ). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root . Econometrica 64 : 813 – 836 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) has both size and power which tend to zero asymptotically. An extension of the Elliott et al. (1996 Elliott , G. , Rothenberg , T. J. , Stock , J. H. ( 1996 ). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root . Econometrica 64 : 813 – 836 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) approach to allow for a quadratic trend resolves this problem but is shown to result in large power losses relative to the standard detrended test when no quadratic trend is present. We consequently propose a simple and practical approach to dealing with this form of uncertainty based on a union of rejections-based decision rule whereby the unit root is rejected whenever either of the detrended or quadratic detrended unit root tests rejects. A modification of this basic strategy is also suggested which further improves on the properties of the procedure. An application to relative primary commodity price data highlights the empirical relevance of the methods outlined in this article. A by-product of our analysis is the development of a test for the presence of a quadratic trend which is robust to whether the data admit a unit root.     

A discrete version of the half-normal distribution and its generalization with applications

A new discrete distribution depending on two parameters $\alpha >-1$ and $\sigma >0$ is obtained by discretizing the generalized normal distribution proposed in García et al. (Comput Stat and Data Anal 54:2021–2034, 2010), which was derived from the normal distribution by using the Marshall and Olkin (Biometrika 84(3):641–652, 1997) scheme. The particular case $\alpha =1$ leads us to the discrete half-normal distribution which is different from the discrete half-normal distribution proposed previously in the statistical literature. This distribution is unimodal, overdispersed (the responses show a mean sample greater than the variance) and with an increasing failure rate. We revise its properties and the question of parameter estimation. Expected frequencies were calculated for two overdispersed and underdispersed (the responses show a variance greater than the mean) examples, and the distribution was found to provide a very satisfactory fit.     

Performance of unit root tests in unbalanced panels: experimental evidence

This paper is about the validity of established panel unit root tests applied to panels in which the individual time series are of different lengths, a case often encountered in practice. Most of the tests considered work well under various types of cross-correlation which is true for both, their application in balanced as well as in unbalanced panels. A Monte Carlo study reveals that in unbalanced panels, procedures involving the computation of individual $p$ -values for each cross-section unit (or the combination thereof) are mostly superior to those relying on a pooled Dickey–Fuller regression framework. As the former are able to consider each unit separately, they do not require cutting back the “longer” time series so as to obtain the smallest “balanced” quadrangle which in turn means that no potentially valuable information is lost.     

Estimating common standard deviation of two normal populations with ordered means

Independent random samples are taken from two normal populations with means $\mu _1$ and $\mu _2$ and a common unknown variance $\sigma ^2.$ It is known that $\mu _1\le \mu _2.$ In this paper, estimation of the common standard deviation $\sigma $ is considered with respect to a scale invariant loss function. A general minimaxity result is proved and a class of minimax estimators is derived. An admissibility result is proved in this class. Further a class of equivariant estimators with respect to a subgroup of affine group is considered and dominating estimators in this class are obtained. The risk performance of some of these estimators is compared numerically.     

Conditional MSE-based discrimination of the sample mean and the post-stratification estimator in population sampling

Whenever a random sample is drawn from a stratified population, the post-stratification estimator $\tilde X$ usually is preferred to the sample mean $\tilde X$ , when the population mean is to be estimated. This is due to the fact that the variance of $\tilde X$ is asymptotically smaller than that of $\tilde X$ , while both estimators are asymptotically unbiased. However, this only holds looking at post-stratification unconditionally, when strata sample sizes are random. Conditioned on the realized sample sizes, the MSE of $\tilde X$ can be higher than that of $\tilde X$ which means that $\tilde X$ should be preferred to $\tilde X$ , even if it is biased. The conditional MSE difference of $\tilde X$ and $\tilde X$ is estimated, and using this estimation and its variance a heuristic test based on the Vysochanskiî-Petunin inequality is derived.     

A variance shift model for detection of outliers in the linear mixed measurement error models

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we extend a variance shift model, previously considered in the linear mixed models, to the linear mixed measurement error models using the corrected likelihood of Nakamura (1990 Nakamura, T. (1990). Corrected score function for errors in variables models: methodology and application to generalized linear models. Biometrika 77:127–137.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This model assumes that a single outlier arises from an observation with inflated variance. We derive the score test and the analogue of the likelihood ratio test, to assess whether the ith observation has inflated variance. A parametric bootstrap procedure is implemented to obtain empirical distributions of the test statistics. Finally, results of a simulation study and an example of real data are presented to illustrate the performance of proposed tests.     

Testing Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study

Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and nonseasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modeling. In this article, the widely used Robinson's (1994 Robinson , P. M. ( 1994 ). Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses . J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89 ( 428 ): 1420 – 1437 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) test is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes.     

Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependencies: Comparison and Implications for Modelling

Several panel unit root tests that account for cross-section dependence using a common factor structure have been proposed in the literature recently. Pesaran's (2007 Pesaran , M. H. ( 2007 ). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence . Journal of Applied Econometrics 22 : 265 – 312 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) cross-sectionally augmented unit root tests are designed for cases where cross-sectional dependence is due to a single factor. The Moon and Perron (2004 Moon , H. R. , Perron , B. (2004). Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors. Journal of Econometrics 122:81–126.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) tests which use defactored data are similar in spirit but can account for multiple common factors. The Bai and Ng (2004a Bai , J. , Ng , S. ( 2004a ). A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration . Econometrica 72 : 1127 – 1177 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) tests allow to determine the source of nonstationarity by testing for unit roots in the common factors and the idiosyncratic factors separately. Breitung and Das (2008 Breitung , J. , Das , S. ( 2008 ). Testing for unit roots in panels with a factor structure . Econometric Theory 24 : 88 – 108 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Sul (2007 Sul , D. ( 2007 ) . Panel Unit Root Tests Under Cross Section Dependence with Recursive Mean Adjustment . Mimeo : University of Auckland . [Google Scholar]) propose panel unit root tests when cross-section dependence is present possibly due to common factors, but the common factor structure is not fully exploited.

This article makes four contributions: (1) it compares the testing procedures in terms of similarities and differences in the data generation process, tests, null, and alternative hypotheses considered, (2) using Monte Carlo results it compares the small sample properties of the tests in models with up to two common factors, (3) it provides an application which illustrates the use of the tests, and (4) finally, it discusses the use of the tests in modelling in general.     

Robust Model-Based Inference for Incomplete Data via Penalized Spline Propensity Prediction

Parametric model-based regression imputation is commonly applied to missing-data problems, but is sensitive to misspecification of the imputation model. Little and An (2004 Little , R. J. A. , An , H. ( 2004 ). Robust likelihood-based analysis of multivariate data with missing values . Statistica Sinica 14 : 949 – 968 .[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a semiparametric approach called penalized spline propensity prediction (PSPP), where the variable with missing values is modeled by a penalized spline (P-Spline) of the response propensity score, which is logit of the estimated probability of being missing given the observed variables. Variables other than the response propensity are included parametrically in the imputation model. However they only considered point estimation based on single imputation with PSPP. We consider here three approaches to standard errors estimation incorporating the uncertainty due to non response: (a) standard errors based on the asymptotic variance of the PSPP estimator, ignoring sampling error in estimating the response propensity; (b) standard errors based on the bootstrap method; and (c) multiple imputation-based standard errors using draws from the joint posterior predictive distribution of missing values under the PSPP model. Simulation studies suggest that the bootstrap and multiple imputation approaches yield good inferences under a range of simulation conditions, with multiple imputation showing some evidence of closer to nominal confidence interval coverage when the sample size is small.     

A robust statistical approach to select adequate error distributions for financial returns

In this article, we propose a robust statistical approach to select an appropriate error distribution, in a classical multiplicative heteroscedastic model. In a first step, unlike to the traditional approach, we do not use any GARCH-type estimation of the conditional variance. Instead, we propose to use a recently developed nonparametric procedure [31 D. Mercurio and V. Spokoiny, Statistical inference for time-inhomogeneous volatility models, Ann. Stat. 32 (2004), pp. 577–602.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]: the local adaptive volatility estimation. The motivation for using this method is to avoid a possible model misspecification for the conditional variance. In a second step, we suggest a set of estimation and model selection procedures (Berk–Jones tests, kernel density-based selection, censored likelihood score, and coverage probability) based on the so-obtained residuals. These methods enable to assess the global fit of a set of distributions as well as to focus on their behaviour in the tails, giving us the capacity to map the strengths and weaknesses of the candidate distributions. A bootstrap procedure is provided to compute the rejection regions in this semiparametric context. Finally, we illustrate our methodology throughout a small simulation study and an application on three time series of daily returns (UBS stock returns, BOVESPA returns and EUR/USD exchange rates).     

Testing for a unit root in a nonlinear quantile autoregression framework

The nonlinear unit root test of Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell (2003 Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics 112:359–379.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) (KSS) has attracted much recent attention. However, the KSS test relies on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator, which is not robust to a heavy-tailed distribution and, in practice, the test suffers from a large power loss. This study develops three kinds of quantile nonlinear unit root tests: the quantile t-ratio test; the quantile Kolmogorov–Smirnov test; and the quantile Cramer–von Mises test. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that these tests have significantly better power when an innovation follows a non-normal distribution. In addition, the quantile t-ratio test can reveal the heterogeneity of the asymmetric dynamics in a time series. In our empirical studies, we investigate the unit root properties of U.S. macroeconomic time series and the real effective exchange rates for 61 countries. The results show that our proposed tests reject the unit roots more often, indicating that the series are likely to be asymmetric nonlinear reverting processes.     

Generalized Inferences on the Common Mean in MANOVA Models

This article presents procedures for testing hypothesis and interval estimation of the common mean vector in MANOVA models when the covariance matrices are unknown and unequal. The methods are based on the concepts of generalized p-value and generalized confidence interval. Some important statistical properties of the exact test and confidence region are given. For two multivariate normal populations, a minor modification to the combined tests given by Zhou and Mathew (1994a Zhou , L. P. , Mathew , T. ( 1994a ). Combining independent tests in multivariate linear models . J. Multivariate Anal. 51 : 265 – 276 . [Google Scholar]) is proposed. Some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed tests with others are reported. The simulation results indicate that new tests have significant gain in the power.     

Rate-optimal tests for jumps in diffusion processes

Suppose one has a sample of high-frequency intraday discrete observations of a continuous time random process, such as foreign exchange rates and stock prices, and wants to test for the presence of jumps in the process. We show that the power of any test of this hypothesis depends on the frequency of observation. In particular, if the process is observed at intervals of length $1/n$ 1 / n and the instantaneous volatility of the process is given by $ \sigma _{t}$ σ t , we show that at best one can detect jumps of height no smaller than $\sigma _{t}\sqrt{2\log (n)/n}$ σ t 2 log ( n ) / n . We present a new test which achieves this rate for diffusion-type processes, and examine its finite-sample properties using simulations.     

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Inference in Linear Regressions

The assumption that all errors share the same variance (homoskedasticity) is commonly violated in empirical analyses carried out using the linear regression model. A widely adopted modeling strategy is to perform point estimation by ordinary least squares and then perform testing inference based on these point estimators and heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. These tests, however, tend to be size-distorted when the sample size is small and the data contain atypical observations. Furno (1996 Furno , M. ( 1996 ). Small sample behavior of a robust heteroskedasticity consistent covariance matrix estimator . Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 54 : 115 – 128 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggested performing point estimation using a weighted least squares mechanism in order to attenuate the effect of leverage points on the associated inference. In this article, we follow up on her proposal and define heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators based on residuals obtained using robust estimation methods. We report Monte Carlo simulation results (size and power) on the finite sample performance of different heteroskedasticity-robust tests. Overall, the results favor inference based on HC0 tests constructed using robust residuals.