Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession

A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite declines of one to two years following the recession, in 2008–2011, American men aged 50 still spent 13 years, or two-fifths of their remaining life, working; American women of the same age spent 11 years, or one-third of their remaining life, in employment. Although educational differences in working life expectancy have been stable since the mid-1990s, racial differences started changing after the onset of the Great Recession. Our results show that although Americans generally work longer than people in other countries, considerable subpopulation heterogeneity exists. We also find that the time trends are fluctuating, which may prove troublesome as the population ages. Policies targeting the weakest performing groups may be needed to increase the total population trends.     

平均预期寿命、健康工作寿命与延迟退休年龄

我国劳动者能健康工作多久?退休年龄究竟延迟到哪一岁最为合理?这关系着广大劳动者切身利益因而是非常重大的政策性问题。本研究采用生命表技术编制了我国2005和2010年分性别人口平均预期寿命、健康预期寿命、工作寿命及健康工作寿命表,然后从劳动力健康工作的视角提出我国延迟退休的合理目标年龄。研究发现,2005和2010年,我国男女健康工作寿命都分别接近62岁和58岁。该发现的重要政策启示在于:我国当前可适当延迟退休年龄,女性比男性延迟退休的空间大,男女65岁同龄退休的时机还未成熟,建议我国延迟退休的目标年龄应以男性62岁,女性58岁为上限;从生命周期角度对我国退休年龄进行国际比较,若按男性62岁,女性58岁为退休年龄上限执行,那么我国劳动力的退休生涯与工作寿命之比将接近发达国家的平均水平;从政策的操作层面来看,我国延迟退休应女先男后或女快男慢,并采取弹性退休制度逐步推迟退休年龄。     

Differences in Life Expectancy and Disability Free Life Expectancy in Italy. A Challenge to Health Systems

Background Measures of health expectancy such as Disability Free Life Expectancy are used to evaluate and compare regional/national health statuses. These indicators are useful for understanding changes in the health status and defining health policies and decisions on the provision of services because provide useful information on possible areas needing interventions and burden of care to health systems. Methods Two databases have been used for the analysis: the Italian Health Interview Survey and the European Community Household Panel. The data were analyzed by gender and geographic area. DFLE was calculated by the Sullivan method. Results In 2005 in Italy women have a longer life expectancy than men: 84 and 78 years, respectively. But if we consider life without disability in Italy the male disadvantage reduces: men live 85% of their years without disability, women only 75%. Geographic differences do exist because Disability Free Life Expectancy is longer in Northern and in Central regions; shorter in the South. At a European level similar data can be found: on average women live longer but they have a longer time of life with disability. Conclusion In Italy women live longer but have a worse quality of health than men; in the South there is a worse quality of health. Similar findings can be identified at a European level. The Italian situation with the highest percentage of DFLE at 65 out of the total LE at 65 and one of the longest LE witnesses ageing is not necessarily associated to a worsening of health.     

中国老年人口的自理预期寿命变动——社会性别视角下的差异分析

基于2005年"小普查"及2010年"六普"汇总数据,本文利用生命表技术及Sullivan法,分析了男性与女性老年人口预期寿命、自理预期寿命及其差异的变化。研究发现,随着年龄的提高,预期寿命与自理预期寿命的性别差异均呈缩减趋势;5年间,老年人口预期寿命的性别差异在低龄阶段有略微的扩张趋势,而自理预期寿命的性别差异则在各年龄均呈扩张趋势;男性老年人口自理预期寿命占余寿的比重始终高于女性,而且与以往研究结论不同的是,5年间老年人口自理预期寿命占余寿的比重呈上升趋势,且女性该比重的上升幅度高于男性。     

中国各地区人口预期寿命及地理分布分析

平均预期寿命是世界公认的衡量人类进步的标准。本文以生命表为基础,主要依据我国第六次人口普查资料,计算各省市区的预期寿命并进行相关分析,计算结果表明,2010年中国人口平均预期寿命为78.17岁,男75.86岁,女80.68岁,已进入发达国家行列。预期寿命与婴儿死亡率呈负相关r＝-0.789,与人均国民总收入呈正相关r＝0.604。预期寿命女性比男性长4～7岁,符合一般规律。影响男性寿命低于女性的原因很多,本文重点讨论了遗传因素和生活方式的影响,并对预期寿命的地理分布进行分析。     

A Hierarchical Model for Analysing Consumption Patterns in Italy Before and During the Great Recession

The paper aims to explore how the Great Recession of the twenty-first century has impacted on the consumption behaviour of Italian households. Following a hierarchical approach, the study investigates differences in consumption behaviour at both household and regional levels. Using micro data on Italian Household Expenditure for the years 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2012, multilevel and two-step regression models have been estimated. The analysis has been performed for four different consumption categories: food, housing, work-related and leisure. The analysis reveals that the economic crisis led to increasing income elasticity for each category of consumption, especially for food, the most essential basic good. The crisis also created more marked regional disparities in the average level of expenditure.     

Care Life Expectancy: Gender and Unpaid Work in the Context of Population Aging

Population Research and Policy Review - Amid growing concern regarding the potential added burden of care due to population aging, we have very little understanding of what is the burden of care in...     

Exploring the Myth of Unhappiness in Former Communist Countries: The Roles of the Sex Gap in Life Expectancy and the Marital Status Composition

National average happiness and the difference in happiness between women and men are positively correlated in European countries. This study focuses on this cross-country relationship and tests (1) whether, after controlling for socio-economic factors, the correlation is attributed to their direct relationship, or, alternatively, explained by the sex difference in life expectancy, and (2) whether the correlation is not only exogenously explained but also endogenously generated by the sex difference in life expectancy. Performing regression analyses, this study shows that the correlation between happiness and its sex difference is spurious, and that the sex difference in life expectancy generates this correlation and accounts for about one-third of the correlation. A decline in happiness influences men’s mortality more than women’s, and widens the life expectancy gap between women and men. This in turn raises the widowhood ratio among women, lowers women’s average happiness, and reduces the happiness gap between women and men. The results obtained in this study points to the importance of controlling for the demographic composition of the population when we use aggregate happiness measures as national happiness indicators.     

中国老年人的空巢时间有多长?

在中国人口老龄化过程中,随着空巢老人比重的持续上升,老年人在空巢状态度过的时间也在不断延长.文章使用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS) 2011、2013年的数据和多状态生命表法,估计60岁及以上老年人的预期寿命和空巢预期寿命,及其性别、城乡和受教育程度差异.结果表明,中国老年人整个老年期中超过一半的余寿都处在空巢状态;女性老年人的空巢预期寿命高于男性老年人;农村老年人的空巢预期寿命高于城市老年人;而受教育水平越高,老年人空巢预期寿命也越长.另外,老年人的空巢预期寿命与他们当前所处居住状态有很大关系,当前处在空巢状态的老年人的空巢预期寿命及其占余寿比重都远远高于处于非空巢状态的老年人.     

流动人口的人力资本禀赋效应及其代际差异

招工难、找工难的现象隐藏着一个重要的经济心理学效应--禀赋效应,即个体出让某物品估价高于得到此物品愿意支付价格的现象。调查结果显示,70%的被访者存在人力资本禀赋效应,他们对自己所拥有的受教育程度应得到的收入估价是对同等受教育程度的劳动力的购买价格的2.9倍。人口学、社会和经济特征对于是否会产生人力资本禀赋效应有显著的影响作用,而禀赋效应的强弱主要受到就业身份的影响。雇员愿意出让价格大大高于雇主愿意购买价格就会出现交易困难,导致"招工难、找工难"的现象出现。事实上,雇员月工资与雇主愿意购买价格非常接近,雇员只能被迫降低愿意出让价格,以适应社会,摆脱"找工难"的困境。第一代流动人口比第二代流动人口的人力资本禀赋效应感更强。与第一代相比较,第二代流动人口中的雇员所期望的薪金更接近于雇主所愿意购买的价格。     

Health,Leisure, and Life Cycle: A Gender Approach in the Tropics

Costa Rican women make use of more types of medicines than men, which is partially explained by females´ higher incidence of stress-related symptoms, multiple roles, and little leisure time. These results are based on 2003, 2004, and 2005 surveys on medication use in Costa Rica. It adds a new country case to the broad existing literature on gender and health, which makes the existing hypotheses more robust and provides insights for future research.     

我国人口预期寿命分析与预测

本文通过对我国人口年龄和性别构成现状的分析,运用蒋庆琅法利用2003年我国人口抽样和死亡率资料编制当年的简略寿命表,估算我国现阶段人口的预期寿命。接着,对我国自解放至今人口预期寿命的变化及其原因进行分析,并最终利用我国自第四次人口普查至第五次人口普查阶段人口预期寿命增长率等相关资料,对我国人口2001-2020年的预期寿命作出预测,得出今后我国人口预期寿命将继续增长,但增长率依年度的推移而递减。     

中国人口的死亡水平及预期寿命评估——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

本文基于2010年人口普查数据,以1981年的中国人口生命表为模型生命表对2010年的人口按龄死亡模式进行修正,测算2010年的中国人口预期寿命,对20世纪80年代以来人口死亡率的变化趋势以及性别模式进行分析。研究结果发现,2010年中国人口的死亡率下降至5.58‰;人口预期寿命达到75岁,其中男性的预期寿命超过73岁,女性预期寿命为78岁;近10年间中国人口预期寿命的增幅超过4岁,高于20世纪80年代以来的任何时期。然而,2010年的人口普查数据中婴幼儿和老年人口存在严重的死亡漏报,现有的经济利益和社会制度因素的制约对人口普查数据质量的提高提出了巨大挑战。偏高的女婴死亡率虽然较2000年有所改善,但依旧存在,对女性的社会歧视仍在威胁中国的人口安全。     

Structural Pluralism and Life Expectancy in Less-Developed Countries: The Role of Women's Status

This study replicates a previous finding forthe U.S. counties that showed a strongassociation, net of controls between``structural pluralism' and lower mortality. ``Structural pluralism' refers to a community'scapacity for political competition, and is acore element of ``democracy.' Pluralism hasthis effect because it facilitates theacquisition of appropriate medical facilitiesand because it tends to optimize the biologicalfunctioning of the residents. Working from amajor component of pluralism, minorityparticipation, this hypothesis is tested byshowing that women's status in less developedcountries improves life expectancy net ofcontrols. A path analysis demonstrates thatthe structural dimensions work through healthorganization as an intervening variable, andthe future testing of biological optimizationis outlined. Location in Africa south of theSahara is a partially unexplained controlvariable that has a powerful negative impact. Interpreting women's status as a component ofpluralism explains why it predicts increasedlife expectancy for all citizens, not justwomen. It is a global dimension that affectsall the members of a community.     

Life Expectancy,Air Pollution,and Socioeconomic Factors: A Multivariate Time-Series Analysis of Beijing City,China

Social Indicators Research - This paper investigated the dynamic relationship between ife expectancy (LE) and its inflencing factors including, health care, socioeconomic, and environment factors...     

Trends in Education-Specific Life Expectancy,Data Quality,and Shifting Education Distributions: A Note on Recent Research

Several recent articles have reported conflicting conclusions about educational differences in life expectancy, and this is partly due to the use of unreliable data subject to a numerator-denominator bias previously reported as ranging from 20 % to 40 %. This article presents estimates of life expectancy and lifespan variation by education in the United States using more reliable data from the National Health Interview Survey. Contrary to prior conclusions in the literature, I find that life expectancy increased or stagnated since 1990 among all education-race-sex groups except for non-Hispanic white women with less than a high school education; there has been a robust increase in life expectancy among white high school graduates and a smaller increase among black female high school graduates; lifespan variation did not increase appreciably among high school graduates; and lifespan variation plays a very limited role in explaining educational gradients in mortality. I also discuss the key role that educational expansion may play in driving future changes in mortality gradients. Because of shifting education distributions, within an education-specific synthetic cohort, older age groups are less negatively selected than younger age groups. We could thus expect a greater concentration of mortality at younger ages among people with a high school education or less, which would be reflected in increasing lifespan variability for this group. Future studies of educational gradients in mortality should use more reliable data and should be mindful of the effects of shifting education distributions.     

Social Class and Conversion Capacity: Deprivation Trends in the Great Recession in Ireland

In this paper, we draw on Irish SILC data to examine the roles of social class, non-class risk groups and state policies in influencing enforced material deprivation as Ireland moved from a period of economic boom through deep recession and on to early recovery. We also employ Sen’s capability approach to explore the extent to which certain social risk groups differ in their capacity to convert social class-differentiated resources into increased capability in relation to avoiding material deprivation. The findings refute the notion of polarization either across time as a result of recession or as a result of more vulnerable social risk groups experiencing more pronounced social class differences. Instead, the impact of recession on social class and social risk group operated mainly in an additive manner with each having a relatively independent impact on deprivation. The exception was lone parents who were less able to convert the benefits of higher social class position into reduced deprivation levels.