一种基于客户行为时序分析的反洗钱异常交易识别方法

可疑交易报告制度是打击洗钱活动的一项基本机制,如何有效甄别可疑交易是金融机构和金融情报中心面临的一个技术难点。为辅助反洗钱分析人员从海量金融交易信息中甄别客户异常交易,本文提出一种预测误差和统计处理综合法--CPEST,通过分析客户前后行为的一致性来发现异常。CPEST建立客户行为模型,根据预测误差对客户行为进行时点异常检验,并在此基础上构造一个窗口检验,以提高对涉嫌洗钱行为的识别能力。本文在支持向量回归和核密度估计等具体实现手段的基础上,运用CPEST对实际交易和仿真数据进行分析,结果表明该方法的有效性和可行性,具有应用推广价值。     

期货市场中洗钱行为的识别

在分析期货市场洗钱者的基本手法和行为特征的基础上,来设计洗钱行为的识别指标和规则;然后,根据期货交易数据中的交易价格、盈亏变动和账户关联等方面的特征筛选出涉嫌洗钱账户;最后,利用计算机仿真模型,对识别方法进行检验,确认了方法的有效性.该识别方法有利于提高洗钱行为的监管效率,为反洗钱工作提供了一种可行的操作手段.     

Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray Application on Porous Surfaces

Antimicrobial spray products are used by millions of people around the world for cleaning and disinfection of commonly touched surfaces. Influenza A is a pathogen of major concern, leading to up to 49,000 deaths and 114,000 hospitalizations per year in the United States alone. One of the recognized routes of transmission for influenza A is by transfer of viruses from surfaces to hands and subsequently to mucous membranes. Therefore, routine cleaning and disinfection of surfaces is an important part of the environmental management of influenza A. While the emphasis is generally on spraying hard surfaces and laundering cloth and linens with high temperature machine drying, not all surfaces can be treated in this manner. The quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) approach was used to develop a stochastic risk model for estimating the risk of infection from indirect contact with porous fomite with and without surface treatment with an antimicrobial spray. The data collected from laboratory analysis combined with the risk model show that influenza A infection risk can be lowered by four logs after using an antimicrobial spray on a porous surface. Median risk associated with a single touch to a contaminated fabric was estimated to be 1.25 × 10⁻⁴ for the untreated surface, and 3.6 × 10⁻⁸ for the treated surface as a base case assumption. This single touch scenario was used to develop a generalizable model for estimating risks and comparing scenarios with and without treatment to more realistic multiple touch scenarios over time periods and with contact rates previously reported in the literature. The results of this study and understanding of product efficacy on risk reduction inform and broaden the range of risk management strategies for influenza A by demonstrating effective risk reduction associated with treating nonporous fomites that cannot be laundered at high temperatures.     

激发你的正能量! 使整个企业建立积极、正向、阳光的文化

近期,"正能量"这个词在企业界非常风靡。它指一切可以使人们积极向上、促使人们不断追求、让生活变得圆满幸福的动力和感情。在经济不景气的大环境下,释放和挥洒正能量,让整个团队和企业家自身都能乐观向上、积极进取,勇于面对一切困难和挑战,对企业来说至关重要。那么,个人和团队的正能量如何激发和提升?如何将正能量充分而完整地释放出来,推动企业     

Building Strategic Technology Alliances for Teaching and Learning

There is a major need for higher education to confront intense competition, enhance academic programs to meet the challenges of this competition, and to develop new teaching and learning strategies to meet the demands of the global marketplace. Technology and the Internet are intended to break down the barriers of time and space and enable more students to participate and collaborate with faculty and other students. Critical thresholds must be met in order to use technology to communicate, collaborate, and transform teaching and learning. Strategic technology alliances establish a partnership between technology vendors and higher education that will achieve these thresholds to meet the teaching and learning needs of the 21st century student. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Global change in agrifood grades and standards: agribusiness strategic responses in developing countries

The role of G&S has shifted from a technical instrument to reduce transaction costs in homogeneous commodity markets to a strategic instrument of competition in differentiated product markets. The nature of G&S has shifted from performance (realized characteristics of the product) to process standards. In developing countries, these changes have tended to exclude small firms and farms from participating in market growth, because of the implied investments. The three strategic responses to G&S change by agribusiness firms and farms include: (1) by large firms and multinationals, to create private G&S and private certification, labeling, and branding systems; (2) by medium-large domestic firms, to lobby governments to adopt public G&S similar to those in export markets in developed regions; (3) by small firms and farms, to ally with public and nonprofit sectors to form G&S and certification systems to access export markets and to bring institutional change to nontradable product markets. Governments should build the capacity of the poor to invest to “make the grade” implied by the new G&S.     

基于社会资本的突发事件理论分析

近年来,在全球频发的各种突发事件与社会资本运作空间的失当密不可分。在突发事件的前期,存在着社会资本原状与突发事件前期因子之间的不良互动和媾和,这种状态持续到质变的程度时,又在某种诱发因素的作用下,以积累爆发或扩散爆发等形式表现为突发事件,并产生一系列消极性的社会影响。突发事件发生和扩散的过程同时也是各种社会资本被动性应急调整、资本组织治理的过程。鉴于社会资本在突发事件中的动因作用,积极地改善社会资本的运作状况,消化突发事件的消极影响,改变社会资本误运作和优化社会资本结构的过程,对于减少突发事件的发生和积极的应对,具有十分重要的现实意义。     

Reframing Resilience: Equitable Access to Essential Services

We urgently need to put the concept of resilience into practice if we are to prepare our communities for climate change and exacerbated natural hazards. Yet, despite the extensive discussion surrounding community resilience, operationalizing the concept remains challenging. The dominant approaches for assessing resilience focus on either evaluating community characteristics or infrastructure functionality. While both remain useful, they have several limitations to their ability to provide actionable insight. More importantly, the current conceptualizations do not consider essential services or how access is impaired by hazards. We argue that people need access to services such as food, education, health care, and cultural amenities, in addition to water, power, sanitation, and communications, to get back some semblance of normal life. Providing equitable access to these types of services and quickly restoring that access following a disruption are paramount to community resilience. We propose a new conceptualization of community resilience that is based on access to essential services. This reframing of resilience facilitates a new measure of resilience that is spatially explicit and operational. Using two illustrative examples from the impacts of Hurricanes Florence and Michael, we demonstrate how decisionmakers and planners can use this framework to visualize the effect of a hazard and quantify resilience-enhancing interventions. This “equitable access to essentials” approach to community resilience integrates with spatial planning, and will enable communities not only to “bounce back” from a disruption, but to “bound forward” and improve the resilience and quality of life for all residents.     

In search of rigor, relevance, and legitimacy: what drives the impact of publications?

In this study, we introduce the concept of legitimacy to the rigor-relevance debate and investigate empirically how rigor, relevance, and legitimacy are related to the process of knowledge dissemination within a research field. We argue that this analysis has been a missing piece in the debate on rigor and relevance when institutional logics about what constitutes both elements lead researchers to act according to what they perceive to be appropriate behavior in the research field. We draw on insights from the micro and macro levels of institutional theory to show how researchers aiming to bestow legitimacy on their own work conform to these “rules of the game”. Using meta-analytical techniques, we focus on the field of strategic entrepreneurship and analyze how rigor- and relevance-related characteristics of studies in this field are linked to their legitimacy and therefore to the impact they have in the research community.     

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM)

Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).     

Reconsidering ordinary and dynamic capabilities in strategic change

Dynamic capabilities research explains the ability of firms to respond to dynamic environments by reconfiguring inert and insufficiently flexible ordinary capabilities. However, more recent research ascribes the routines that constitute ordinary capabilities the ability to evolve endogenously. This study aims to develop dynamic capability research by increasing our understanding of the relations between and the roles played by ordinary and dynamic capabilities in producing purposeful responses to environmental dynamism. Drawing on longitudinal, qualitative data, we show how ordinary capabilities make important contributions to organizational responses to dynamic environments. Our findings pose challenges to key assumptions of extant dynamic capabilities research and allow us to explicate new roles for ordinary and dynamic capabilities, thus advancing the understanding of the relation between dynamic and ordinary capabilities and advancing understanding of one of the central issues in dynamic capabilities research: firms’ capacity to respond to changing environments.     

Strategic planning as an organizational change process—Some guidelines from practice

Learning to cope with the problems and uncertainties created by today's changing business environment is a task which faces ever company. Coping with the challenge of change is not just a question of adapting or reacting to the changes, it may also involve taking new initiatives in relation to the environment itself in order to exploit the opportunities which exist.A company may need to make fundamental adjustments to its philosophy, strategies, organization and practices in order to meet the newer demands of the environment. A prime difficulty is that companies are rarely in a position to start from scratch, they have existing organizational arrangements, power distributions, well established strategies and vested interests all of which tend to resist any kind of change which is likely to upset the ‘status quo’. They also have to overcome outdated beliefs and norms if they are to progress.This article considers the use of a modified approach to strategic planning as a mechanism for helping a company to acquire the norms, organization and strategies needed to cope with today's business environment. It is based on experience gained in helping to re-organize business enterprises engaged in textiles, steel tube manufacture, light engineering, distribution (world wide) and vehicle sales and servicing and also the Government of Jersey, Channel Islands.     

Resilience of organisations and territories: The role of pivot firms

How can organisations and territories contribute to maintain a high level of innovation while at the same time adapting to a turbulent environment? We give an answer to this question by mobilizing the concept of resilience. In order to do this, we develop a conception of resilience based on two dimensions. First, an organisational dimension which refers to the capacity of an organisation to manage a disturbance to its environment and to develop a new pathway and, a territorial dimension which refers to the collective capacity of the actors to contribute to facilitate the development of territorial responses to external disturbances. We illustrate this double dimension of resilience by focusing on the role of pivot firm as major actor in a territory.     

Innovation in a waste economy

Despite the creativity of British engineers, British industry continues to lack innovative drive because of a climate inimical to commercial success. Contemporary industrial economies, unlike that of Victorian Britain, are geared to produce rapidly consumed and discarded products. Victorian engineers sought primarily to add to society's stock of capital rather than to consumption, and their designs were intended to endure rather than to promote change. All were subject to scrutiny on strict commercial criteria as a measurement of their fitness for their intended purpose. This represents a change in what society demands of the engineer. The innovator is, in Britain, subject to particular discouragements in the form of: low prestige attached to engineering, inadequate financial provision for investment, high corporate and personal taxation and bureaucratic encumbrances by government. By contrast, to flourish, innovation requires leadership, reward, recognition, a flexible economy and a flexible workforce, and adequate and cheap capital.     

Size, book-to-market, and momentum during the business cycle

The Fama–French-Methodology (1993–1998) offers cross-sectional explanations of returns by taking the specially designed portfolios SMB and HML as additional factors. It is acknowledged that these factors are related to some forms of risk (they bear premia) which, by researchers is often proposed to be related to the uncertainty with respect to macroeconomic production and aggregate consumption. In more recent research a momentum factor is included in order to improve the explanatory power of the Fama–French-Model. We use data from business cycles 1926–2007 to show that SMB represents the risks related to the very early phase of an upswing while HML may be related to the uncertainty whether a business cycle will continue to gain depth and strength (or shifts back into recession). In contrast to SMB and HML, we do not find momentum to be related to risks associated with particular phases of the business cycle.     

Generic Assessment Endpoints Are Needed for Ecological Risk Assessment

This article presents arguments for the development of generic assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment. Generic assessment endpoints would be ecological entities and attributes that are assumed to be worthy of protection in most contexts. The existence of generic assessment endpoints would neither create a requirement that they be used in every assessment nor preclude the use of other assessment endpoints. They would simply be a starting point in the process of identifying the assessment endpoints for a particular assessment. They are needed to meet legal mandates, to provide a floor for environmental degradation, to provide some consistency in environmental regulation, as exemplars for site- or project-specific assessment endpoints, to allow development of methods and models, to give risk managers the courage to act, for screening and site-independent assessments, to support environmental monitoring, to facilitate communication, and to avoid paralysis by analysis. Generic assessment endpoints should include not only a list of entities and attributes, but also explanations of each endpoint, guidance on their use and interpretation, and measures and models that could be used to estimate them.     

Selecting Indicators for Assessing Community Sustainable Resilience

Communities are complex systems subject to a variety of hazards that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. Community resilience assessment is rapidly gaining popularity as a means to help communities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruption. Sustainable resilience, a recently developed concept, requires communities to assess system‐wide capability to maintain desired performance levels while simultaneously evaluating impacts to resilience due to changes in hazards and vulnerability over extended periods of time. To enable assessment of community sustainable resilience, we review current literature, consolidate available indicators and metrics, and develop a classification scheme and organizational structure to aid in identification, selection, and application of indicators within a dynamic assessment framework. A nonduplicative set of community sustainable resilience indicators and metrics is provided that can be tailored to a community's needs, thereby enhancing the ability to operationalize the assessment process.     

基于服务化的制造企业与服务提供商的演化博弈分析

制造企业从传统制造向服务型制造转变是其转型升级、提升竞争力的重要路径之一。而企业在转型过程中受自身资源约束,往往需要服务提供商的配合。本文在构建制造企业与服务企业的收益函数基础上,建立两方非对称演化博弈模型,探究制造企业与服务提供商合作实施服务化策略的规律,并运用MATLAB仿真,深入研究相关因素对制造企业与服务提供商合作实施服务化策略的影响作用。研究表明,制造企业对服务提供商所提供服务的依赖度、服务化制造企业与未服务化制造企业间的差异化竞争度、双方合作前后的收益和成本、合作不成功造成的损失、收益的分配等因素是合作意愿的重要影响因素,且差异化竞争度比服务依赖度对合作意愿的影响作用更强烈、与收益相比博弈主体对成本的变化更敏感、服务提供商更易动摇合作的意愿、存在最优的收益分配系数使制造企业与服务提供商采取合作策略的意愿最强。     

Joined-Up Government for Welfare Administration Reform in Norway

One of the largest public sector reforms in Norway is the welfare administrative reform of 2005. The aims are to get passive beneficiaries back into work and to make the administration more user-friendly, holistic and efficient. The aims are to be achieved by increasing the administration’s capacity to address “wicked issues” by cutting across existing policy fields and administrative levels. This joined-up-government approach poses three main challenges: 1) to get a merged central government agency to work, 2) to establish constructive cooperation between the central and local authorities and 3) to coordinate front-line services with user-oriented employment and welfare offices. The article shows that increasing the capacity of government to cut across existing policy fields and handle transboundary wicked issues are still struggling to be implemented. Cooperation between sectors is however easier to achieve than cooperation between levels. The joined-up-government-approach also tends to make accountability relations more ambiguous.