Exploring spatial patterns of carbon emissions in the USA: a geographically weighted regression approach

This paper uses US county-level data and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology framework to explore the extent of geographical variability in the process that links total emissions of carbon dioxide to measures of population, affluence, and technology. Geographically weighted regression models show that there is strong evidence of spatial heterogeneity in the estimated elasticities of emissions. While this research cannot explain these regional patterns, it may provide a useful starting point to examine in detail the nature of regional variation.     

The making of a ghetto: Spatially concentrated poverty in New York City in the 1980s

In recent years a debate has arisen over which of two mechanisms — class selective household mobility or spatially focused increases in poverty — has been the driving force in concentrating poverty in certain inner-city neighborhoods. This paper utilizes a multivariate analysis to identify the processes underlying areal income-class transition in New York City during 1978–1987, and the areal characteristics that predict a consistent path of change. By anchoring the analysis at the level of the individual housing unit, this study disentangles the competing mechanisms of poverty concentration and demonstrates that both selective mobility and shifts in income class contribute to areal income-class transition, but that the latter mechanism accounts for a greater amount of change. Further, after controlling for the proportion of minority residents and public housing units in the area, the results show that location in poor areas is associated with poor in-movement, nonpoor out-movement, and downward shifts in the income class among long-term residents. These mutually reinforcing processes lead to continued decline in extreme- and high-poverty areas, while processes in the opposite direction sustain the economic vitality of low-poverty areas.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1992 meetings of the Population Association of America in Denver, Colorado.     

Fertility decline in a US population favoring large families: A hazard-model analysis of the effect of sib death on Amish fertility

This paper uses proportional hazards techniques and population data from a directory of the Old Order Amish of the Lancaster, PA settlement. It examines the effect of death of the immediately prior sibling on the risk of childbearing for up to 11 children. Prior research typically has pooled data for maternal cohorts. In contrast, separate models are estimated for each maternal cohort. The results are based on all reported first marriages of Amish women born between 1884–1973 (N = 4066). Hazard models run separately for children of each birth order reveal that net of maternal age and length of the prior birth interval (and other statistical and design controls), the death of the prior sib significantly increases the risk of a subsequent birth for the lower birth orders. Separate models by maternal cohort show that sib death increases the risk primarily for later cohorts. The pattern of effects from child mortality and other variables suggests changes in fertility behavior among the Amish, who have strong, traditional norms opposing contraception and favoring large families.     

我国出生性别比失衡区域的识别、特点及成因——基于县(市)级层面的分析

本文采用地理信息系统(GIS)的空间分析技术,利用地理信息系统分析软件(ARCView GIS)、探索性空间分析技术软件(GeoDA)、社会科学统计软件包(SPSS)等软件,对1982年、1990年和2000年三次全国人口普查的县域截面数据进行了分析。通过空间分析,识别出我国高出生性别比聚集的热点区域,并进一步对其分布、演变特点和成因进行了较深入研究,试图找到热点区域分布及变化的规律性特点。在此基础上,提出了热点区治理和跨区域治理相结合的政策思路。