人力资本促进经济增长的机理分析:国外研究述评

舒尔茨、贝克尔等人从微观与宏观两个层次分析了人力资本促进经济增长的内在机理,揭示了人力资本投资对知识、技术进步、分工与专业化发展的促进作用,进而促进生产率不断提高,并形成规模经济效应,从而实现边际效益递增,促进国民经济持续快速增长。内生经济增长理论的代表人物罗默、卢卡斯等人,则进一步提出人力资本内生化的增长模型。他们认为由于人力资本内部效应与外部效应的共同作用,不仅使人力资本投资自身呈现收益递增,而且使物质资本投资收益不递减甚至递增,从而推动整个经济持续增长。     

日本内生经济增长理论的一般性研究

文章从战后日本资源贫乏的现实出发 ,通过建立政府、资本和资源关系模型 ,研究了有限资源制约条件下实现均衡经济增长的路径。并以内生增长理论为依托 ,着重研究内生经济增长条件下的财政政策绩效。文章研究所得出的结论 :人力资本或知识资本投资可以弥补一般生产要素 (资本 )积累对经济增长贡献的不足 ,并能在更大程度上刺激经济增长。该研究对中国目前更好地保持经济增长意义重大     

如何实现碳减排约束下的经济增长--人力资本的碳减排效应分析

人力资本因素可以解决碳减排约束和经济增长之间的矛盾。通过理论和实证两方面的研究表明,技术进步是碳减排的根本途径,而人力资本建设能够促进技术进步,同样具有明显的碳减排效应,依靠人力资本建设能够实现经济增长和碳排放减少的双赢,人力资本的碳减排效应甚至超过了技术因素,因为技术进步终究是由人创造的。因此,要充分挖掘人力资本的碳减排潜力;普及减排知识,增强自觉减排意识;提高教育质量,提升公民素质。     

发展经济学对我国经济增长方式转变的启示

发展经济学在不同的发展阶段提出了不同的经济增长理论,这些理论与发展中国家经济发展的不同阶段相适应。我国的经济发展路径证明了理论与实践的一致性,比如贫困的恶性循环论与政府投资和引进外资;新古典经济增长理论与发挥劳动的比较优势;技术进步的经济增长理论与市场换技术;全要素经济增长理论与技术创新和产权制度改革等。通过理论与实际相结合历史与逻辑相统一的分析,得出目前我国转变经济增长方式应主要通过技术创新、制度创新、增加人力资本投资等结论。     

教育人力资本结构高级化促进经济增长了吗

问题提出 教育人力资本尤其高级教育人力资本是内生经济增长动力的重要源泉.以初级教育人力资本向高级教育人力资本演进为特征的教育人力资本结构高级化则能够加快经济增长动力转换,促使由依靠物质资本与低成本劳动力等要素投入驱动模式,转向以高级教育人力资本为核心的创新驱动模式,进而推动经济持续增长.但不同于发达经济体趋于完备与稳定...     

论教育培养的价值观对经济增长的决定作用

经济增长的三大关键投入要素为劳动、资本、技术,而教育则是有目的培养人的社会活动.教育培养的价值观决定着劳动者的真实劳动生产率,决定着人力资本的质量,决定着技术进步.从这三方面综合来考察,教育培养的价值观对经济增长起着决定性的作用.     

当前拉动我国农村消费的路径选择——以内生经济增长理论的视角

内生经济增长理论论证了技术和人力资本对经济增长的内生性贡献,为经济增长在各国存在的差异性和家庭收入的差异性提供了解释.当前农民工工资性收入已成为我国农户的重要收入来源,但目前的金融危机和未来政府对技术和资本密集型产业的选择,将导致农户收入下滑,必然影响农村居民的消费支出.公共财政在农村教育缺位、教育支出预期上升使教育储蓄成为农户重要的预防性储蓄,从而限制了即期消费.由于人力资本的提升对农户的未来收益和消费起着决定性作用,因此,在应对金融危机背景下,启动内需、拉动农村消费应把加大农村教育投入,强化教育培训提升农民工人力资本和完善农民工失业补偿机制作为政策选择.     

论提高农民消费水平是中国经济增长的根本动力

目前我国经济增长过分依赖出口和投资的拉动,消费对经济增长的拉动作用不足.而出口的拉动作用潜力有限,投资的拉动作用则需要消费来支撑,因此,消费需求不足尤其是农民消费需求不足就成为我国经济增长的最大症结.这种状况决定了提高农民消费水平应成为拉动我国经济增长的根本动力.而要提高农民消费水平.关键在于破解制约农民消费的"资金瓶颈"、"硬件瓶颈"和"软件瓶颈".     

经济学、经济增长理论与经济增长理论模型

一、“新”称号下的老做法自20世纪80年代中期起,西方的经济理论界又一次兴起了研究经济增长理论模型的热潮。在这股研究热潮中出现了难以计数的新的经济增长理论模型,人们通常将它们统称为“新经济增长理论”或“内生经济增长理论”。当然,“新经济增长理论”是相对于“旧”的传统经济增长理论而言的,“内生经济增长理论”则是相对于某种因素为“外生”的经济增长理论模型而言的。而这里所说的“旧”的、“外生”的传统经济增长理论模型,指的就是新古典的经济增长理论和经济增长模型,它由索洛(Solow)和斯旺(Sw an)等人提出,而完整成型的代…     

西部人力资源的经济分析

人力资本是经济增长的内生性要素和“引擎”,国内外经济学家的科学论证和国内外经济发展的实际经验都充分论证这一结论。虽然西部自然资源丰富,人力剩余,但资本存量明显不足,成为西部大开发的最大掣肘,投资于人力资本是西部经济追赶世纪腾飞并持续发展的源泉和动力;人力资本积累要坚持加强教育体制改革,实行完善的人力资本投资收益分配政策,调配人才的合理流动。     

Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test

This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between savings and economic growth in South Africa during the period 1950–2005. The study was motivated by the low and declining savings rate currently prevailing in South Africa, on the one hand, and the dwindling level of economic growth experienced in the country during the 1990s, on the other. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study incorporates foreign capital inflow as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between savings and economic growth—thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework. Using the cointegration-based error–correction mechanism, the study finds a bi-directional causality between savings and economic growth to prevail in the short run and a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to savings to dominate in the long run. On balance, the study finds growth-led savings to predominate in South Africa. The results also show that foreign capital inflow and savings Granger-cause each other, while economic growth Granger causes foreign capital inflow. The study, therefore, recommends that in the short run, South African policies should be geared towards achieving both higher savings and economic growth in order to boost investors’ confidence and to attract foreign capital inflow. However, in the long run, the country should shift its focus towards achieving higher economic growth, in order to boost the domestic savings and to sustain a steady flow of foreign capital investment.     

Gender inequality in human capital accumulation and economic growth: a comparative analysis of Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Even though the significance of human capital in the growth literature is well established, little evidence is available on the role of education on growth segregated on a gender basis. The present study has focused on the importance of female education and employment and queried to what extent gender inequality in education and employment has an impact on economic growth in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. To answer this question, a simultaneous equations model covering time period of 1975–2009 has been used and the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) has been applied. The results have confirmed that the gender gap in education has induced an adverse impact on economic growth, both directly and indirectly, through rapid population growth and low investment. Results also show that though there is gender inequality in human capital accumulation in both counties but the intensity is higher in Pakistan as compared to Sri Lanka. The study explored the opportunities to encourage the role of females in the developmental activities of these countries. In view of the fact that gender inequality in education is critical for growth, the study recommends that rather than slashing the PSDP (Public Sector Development Program), Pakistan needs to promote investment in human capital and that there should be equal opportunity for education and employment for both males and females in both south Asian Countries.     

Public investment and growth: Lessons learned from 60-years experience in Southern Italy

This article analyses the contribution of public investment to economic growth in Southern Italy in the second half of the twentieth century (1951–2011). The Bai–Perron tests suggest that economic growth followed three distinct regimes: accelerated growth in the years 1951–1973 (average growth rate 5.3%); low growth in the period 1974–1995 (average growth rate 1.6%); zero growth on average after 1995. Using cointegration analysis, we find a positive effect of public investment on per unit of labour output of the Mezzogiorno in the whole period, 1951–2011. However, the estimates of the model show statistically significant parameters of public investment in the first regime, but not in the second regime, when economic growth is sustained by business investment and technical change. The last phase of growth sees the negative influence of the social and institutional environment on the functioning of the economy. The different impact of public investment on growth over time is ascribed to changes in the quality of institutions.     

Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?

In this paper, we analyze the role played by capital goods imports in the long-run growth of developing countries. We focus in the case of the Chinese economy in the last few decades. We find evidence that the ratio of imported to domestic capital goods, that is, the composition of investment, as well as the capital accumulation (both physical and human), was key determinants of the long-run growth rate of per capita GDP over the analyzed period. Furthermore, our results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the link between trade openness and long-run growth operates mainly through imports. This finding supports some recent developments of Schumpeterian models of growth, and the very specific economic policy recommendations arising thereof. In short, these models state that, in the early stages of growth, government intervention to encourage an investment-based strategy, with emphasis on large investment efforts and the adoption of foreign technology, could be an appropriate strategy for development.     

经济制度与经济增长

人们通常认为 ,经济增长是由资本、技术、劳动力等生产要素的投入带来的 ,不考虑或很少考虑经济增长的制度因素 ,而只是把它作为研究经济增长的已知的、既定的前提或外生的变量。然而 ,制度创新却能在物质生产要素不变尤其是技术不变时提高生产率 ,促进经济增长。制度因素对经济增长起着客观的制约作用。因此 ,研究经济增长不能撇开制度因素     

SPECIAL ISSUE： REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND COORDINATED URBAN GROWTH Regional Economic Convergence Mechanisms in the Yangtze River Delta

本文运用非参数DEA分析方法,将中国经济发展的最前沿区域——长三角地区的经济增长分解为物质资本积累、效率改善、技术进步和人力资本投入等四部分,然后利用空间统计与空间计量经济分析技术,采用绝对收敛方程考察了长三角经济增长率与这四类因素的收敛效应。实证结果表明,物质资本所贡献的经济增长主导着长三角各县市区的实际经济增长;长三角区域经济增长存在显著的空间依赖性,并对经济增长的变化趋势产生明显影响;物质资本积累这一新古典经济增长因素是唯一使得长三角地区间差距缩小的因素,主导着长三角地区经济收敛的方向;人力资本、效率改善与技术进步等新经济增长因素使得长三角经济增长趋异,对长三角的经济差距也产生了深刻的影响。     

Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt during the period 1960–2001 within a trivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework (investment being the additional variable). We employ four different measures of financial development and apply Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error-correction (VEC) methodology. Our results strongly support the view that financial development and economic growth are mutually causal, that is, causality is bi-directional. Furthermore, we find that financial development causes economic growth through both increasing resources for investment and enhancing efficiency. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that the Egyptian government launched in 1991 and to improve the efficiency of the financial system to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long-term economic growth.     

储蓄率与经济增长的关系研究——基于中国1978～2008年间的数据分析

储蓄率在现代经济增长理论中占有极其重要的地位,是影响经济增长率的重要变量,大量实证研究也证实了这一点。基于中国1978～2008年间的数据,采用Granger因果检验来分析储蓄率和经济增长之间的关系,分析结果显示：经济增长率是储蓄率的Granger原因,但储蓄率对经济增长率的影响作用不显著。因此,中国宏观调控政策的重点应当放在启动消费上,适度改善投资结构,加强对可贷资金的引导和规范,保证储蓄向投资转化渠道的畅通。     

加快广西承接产业转移的战略思考

有计划、有选择、有步骤地接纳发达地区产业转移是实现广西经济又好又快发展的关键。承接产业转移,有利于从外部获得自身短缺要素,有利于继续扩大利用外资力度,扩大投资规模,有利于加快广西工业化进程,推进新一轮经济增长,促进广西经济和社会健康发展。