中国人口变动与经济增长

人口具有生产和消费的双重属性,因此人口变动与经济增长密切相关。考察中国改革开放以来的经济增长态势,以人口为中心系统地分析影响中国改革开放以来经济持续高速增长的主要因素。中国的人口变动主要从四个方面促进了改革开放以来经济持续的高速增长;如果没有其他突发性因素的冲击,单从人口变动因素来看,中国经济还可能再持续增长二十年。     

The Assessment of Quality of Life in Transitional Neighborhoods

Quality of life (QoL) is being considered as one of the fundamental concepts in contemporary era. It tries to assess the level of general welfare of the communities. Urban transitional neighborhoods possess specific situation and as a result present distinctive QoL. The major objective of this study is to identify and measure the QoL dimensions in urban transitional neighborhoods using both objective and subjective indices pertaining to Darvazeshemiran neighborhood of Tehran. In order to accomplish this and gather needed data, 244 questionnaires were distributed among Darvazeshemiran’s residents. This study suggests that there exists low level of QoL in the study area. That is 64.3 % of the residents were dissatisfied with the prevailing level of QoL. This in turn is associated with the transitional nature of this neighborhood. The residents were strongly dissatisfied with regard to the environmental qualification as opposed to accessibility status. Furthermore, this study identified five objective factors respectively regarding QoL. There exists low correlation between subjective and objective dimensions. That demands simultaneous consideration of both objective and subjective dimensions. It is argued that individual treatments of each could not accurately represent the QoL of residents.     

How Long are Exposures to Poor Neighborhoods? The Long-Term Dynamics of Entry and Exit from Poor Neighborhoods

Although discussions of poor neighborhoods often assume that their residents are a distinct population trapped in impoverished environments for long durations, no past research has examined longitudinal patterns of residence in poor neighborhoods beyond single-year transitions. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1979 to 1990 matched to census tract data, this paper provides the first estimates of duration of stay and rates of re-entry in poor (20%+ poor) and extremely poor (40%+ poor) census tracts. The results indicate that (1) there is great racial inequality in longitudinal patterns of exposure to poorneighborhoods – mostAfrican Americans will live in a poor neighborhood over a 10 year span, contrasted to only 10 percent of whites; (2) exits from high poverty neighborhoods are not uncommon, but re-entries to poor neighborhoods following an exit are also very common, especially among African Americans; and (3) length of spell in a poor neighborhood is positively associated with low income, female headship, and, most of all, black race. Little of the racial difference is accounted for by racial difference in poverty status or family structure. Implications for research and public policy are discussed.     

Global Neighborhoods: Beyond the Multiethnic Metropolis

Neighborhoods where blacks and whites live in integrated settings alongside Hispanics and Asians represent a new phenomenon in the United States. These “global neighborhoods” have previously been identified in the nation’s most diverse metropolitan centers. This study examines the full range of metropolitan areas to ask whether similar processes are occurring in other parts of the country. Is there evidence of stable racial integration in places that lack such diversity? What are the paths of neighborhood change in areas with few Hispanic or Asian residents, or areas where Hispanics are the principal minority group, or where there is no large minority presence at all? We distinguish four types of metropolitan regions: white, white/black, white/Hispanic/Asian, and multiethnic. These regions necessarily differ greatly in neighborhood composition, but some similar trajectories of neighborhood change are found in all of them. The results provide new evidence of the effect of Hispanic and Asian presence on black-white segregation in all parts of the country.     

Neighborhoods in Development: Human Development Index and Self-organizing Maps

The Human Development Index (HDI) has been instrumental in broadening the discussion of economic development beyond money-metric progress, in particular, by ranking a country against other countries in terms of the well being of their citizens. We propose self-organizing maps to explore similarities among countries using the components of the HDI rather than rankings. The similarities approach using the HDI components reveals information which is not available from ranking or bilateral comparisons. By illustrating clusters of countries, which we call “neighborhoods in development”, self-organizing maps draw out the potential for mutual policy learning among countries and shift the focus to discovering what kind of policies might have led countries change their position in the rankings.     

人口结构变化对于经济增长的影响——以江苏省为例

改革开放三十多年,中国经济蓬勃发展,社会发生了巨大的变化.人口老龄化等人口结构变化问题受到了广泛关注.人口结构的转变体现在方方面面,本文从人口结构的变化出发,包括人口年龄结构、人口性别结构、人口城乡结构、人口教育结构等,结合江苏省的实际情况进行实证研究,说明了人口老龄化,城乡人口比例失衡对于江苏经济发展有着显著的负向影响;人口教育结构的优化即高素质人才比重上升,对于江苏经济增长有着显著的正向影响;人口性别比例的失衡一定程度对于经济增长有阻碍作用.     

Economic Swings and Demographic Changes in the History of Latin America

In this paper we study the effects of short-term fluctuations in indicators of economic well-being on selected demographic response such as births, marriages and deaths at age intervals in eleven Latin American countries between 1910 and 1990. We use conventional distributed lag models to assess the magnitude and direction of effects and test a variety of hypotheses some of which have been posed to hold in Western Europe and others that are more specific and tailored to the Latin American context. We also compare the magnitude and direction of effects obtained among these countries with those obtained for pre-industrial Europe and uncover the existence of broadly similar patterns.     

Motor Vehicles in China: The Impact of Demographic and Economic Changes

While China's transportation sector is relatively small compared to other nations—both in absolute terms and relative to the size of the population—the nation is currently experiencing one of the highest annual motorization growth rates in the world. This rapid growth has raised both excitement among business leaders over the potentially enormous market for automobiles and concern among environmentalists over their further impact on the global environment. This paper examines the influence of population growth, increased urbanization, and economic development on the rapid growth of motor vehicles in China, and considers their implications for future motor vehicle growth in the country.     

中国老年人主要生活来源的现状与变化

1　引言养老问题是我国长期面临的重要问题。 2 0 0 0年第五次人口普查数据表明 ,我国 60岁及以上老年人口已达到 1 3亿人 ,65岁及以上老年人超过 882 7万人。随着我国老年人数的不断增长和人口的日益老龄化 ,老年人的养老问题越来越引起政府和社会的普遍关注。老年人的生活来源对老年生活有着极其重要的影响 ,长期以来 ,家庭养老一直被视为是我国养老的主要形式 ,而以退休金为主要生活来源与以子女供养为主要生活来源的老年人家庭在养老的经济负担上也必然存在着差异。因此 ,了解老年人的生活来源是认识中国养老问题的重要基础。在中国 1 3…     

Comparison of Urban Housing Satisfaction in Modern and Traditional Neighborhoods in Edirne,Turkey

Numerous cross-cultural studies have focused on certain aspects of urban housing conditions and their social consequences. However, most data on housing satisfaction is restricted to Western countries. Relatively little comparison has been made between these findings and those in developing areas where rapid urbanization is occurring and where concomitant problems in urban housing are emerging. Moreover, since primary cities of developing countries in the initial stage of economic development have received extensive attention in urban housing research, it would be interesting to examine a non-primary city where relatively good standards of living have been achieved. Thus, this study investigates people’s housing satisfaction in modern and historical neighborhoods. This paper addresses some conceptual and measurement issues related to the study of housing satisfaction. We build a conceptual model, which links the multiple dimensions of housing satisfaction, measured by a modified version of Bardo and Dokmeci’s (1992, Genetic, Social and General Psychology Monographs 118(3)) housing satisfaction scale, in a causal sense. An empirical examination of the model in traditional and modern neighborhoods reveals that social and environmental living conditions positively influence overall housing satisfaction. The results also indicate that the drivers of the social and environmental living conditions constructs differ between traditional and modern neighborhoods.     

Schools,Neighborhoods and Selection: Outcomes Across Metropolitan Los Angeles

What is the relationship between school segregation and neighborhood segregation across school districts in Los Angeles County, and are school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores related to levels of school segregation across these districts? We compute segregation scores using US tract level data for 2000 and use reading and mathematics scores from California State tests. Data from the Los Angeles family and neighborhood survey are used to track individual residential changes and differences in the associated Woodcock Johnson scores. We show that there is a close link between levels of school segregation and neighborhood segregation and that many suburban school districts are relatively integrated across both neighborhoods and schools. When we examine average school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores we do not find any relationship with levels of segregation. At the same time there is clear evidence of spatial sorting with poorer and lower scoring children moving into school districts (or zones with poorer achieving schools). The multi-level models of segregation and achievement show that the variance in achievement levels across districts is significantly greater than across schools within districts.     

西部地区就业结构变迁及其绩效:2000—2010

在对西部大开发中西部地区就业结构进行比较分析与合理化评价基础上,依据shift-share方法分离就业结构对劳动生产率提升的贡献。分析表明,西部大开发以来西部地区就业结构向着"高级化"方向持续演化,实现了"跨越式"调整;就业结构合理化程度也得到快速提高,但和全国水平的差距未能缩小;就业结构变迁对于劳动生产率提高贡献了很大份额;西部各省市自治区之间在就业结构状态、合理化程度方面存在着很大的差异,在同时调整过程中的步调和促进劳动生产率的贡献方面也不一致。这些结论在政策上意味着,实施西部大开发战略过程中要素市场,尤其是劳动力市场制度的建设和完善应该进一步加强。     

劳动力供求变化与我国区域经济转变——基于中部省份与沿海省份的对比分析

文章选取中部的湖北省与东南沿海的浙江、广东两省作为比较研究的对象,解析了我国当前区域经济不平衡发展的威廉姆斯(Williamson)拐点与二元经济社会发展的刘易斯(Lewis)拐点客观存在之现实,揭示了两者在市场主导下相互竞合且互为因果的内在逻辑联系,并对我国当前和今后一段时间区域经济的均衡发展提出了参考意见。     

基于VEC模型的陕西省人口结构变化与经济增长关系研究

人口结构对国家或地区经济发展具有重要作用,二者相互影响、相互制约.本文选择劳动人口所占比重、城镇人口所占比重、男女性别比例、文盲及半文盲比重与人均GDP作为研究指标,基于陕西省1989-2008年相关数据,对陕西省人口结构与经济增长关系进行了协整检验和VEC模型分析.研究结果表明:劳动力人口比重与经济增长呈现正相关,文盲及半文盲人口比重与经济增长呈现负相关;城镇人口比重和男女比例对经济发展具有重要促进作用;除开劳动人口所占比重外,其余三个指标对经济增长影响存在不同的滞后期.最后,根据分析结果提出陕西省经济发展对策建议.     

新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长？--基于VEC模型的动态实证研究

为了研究新疆人口数量变化能否促进经济增长,本文在生态环境承载力、劳动力边际产出和人口理论方面论述了人口数量变化与经济增长的相互作用机理,在此基础上通过VEC模型对人口数量、人均GDP和财政预算收入进行动态研究,结果为：长期人均GDP和人口数量成正向关系,弹性为0.33,但财政预算收入却因人口数量的增加而呈现小幅度降低,弹性为0.09。短期内人均GDP与人口数量成反向关系,财政预算收入的增加反而能够促进人口数量的增加。     

The Dual Role of Race and Immigration Among Ascending Neighborhoods in U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Population Research and Policy Review - The racial/ethnic and socioeconomic diversity of immigrants to the United States has grown since the 1990s, along with growing neighborhood socioeconomic...     

Changes in Subjective and Objective Measures of Economic Well-Being and Their Interrelationship among the Elderly in Singapore and Taiwan

Social Indicators Research -     

Neighborhoods, Ethnicity and School Choice: Developing a Statistical Framework for Geodemographic Analysis

Geodemographics as the “analysis of people by where they live” has origins in urban sociology and social mapping, and is experiencing a renaissance in applied spatial demography. However, some commentators have expressed reservations about the statistical limitations of common geodemographic practices, especially focusing on the potential internal heterogeneity of the geodemographic groupings, as well as the problem of clearly identifying predictor variables that might account for or explain the socioeconomic patterns revealed by geodemographic analyses. In this paper we argue that geodemographic typologies are structured methods for making sense of the spatial and socioeconomic patterns encoded within complex datasets such as national census data. By treating geodemographics as more a framework than a tool for analysis in its own right we are able to integrate it with the flexibility and statistical conventions offered by multilevel modeling. We demonstrate this with a case study of whether pupils from different types of neighborhood in Birmingham, England are more or less likely to attend their nearest state-funded secondary school and how that likelihood varies with the ethnic composition of the neighborhood. In so doing we build on previous research suggesting that ethnic segregation between schools is at least equal to that between neighborhoods in England and speculate in this regard on the consequences of current government plans to extend choice to parents within a schools market.