新中国外交：安全与发展的互动

1949年至今，新中国外交分别经历了以毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛和习近平为党和国家领导集体核心的五个时期。60多年来，维护国家安全和促进经济发展成为贯穿于新中国外交的两条主线，我国外交政策的形成和演进在很大程度上取决于二者的互动。在二者的作用下，新中国外交在不同时期表现为不同的形式。对之进行系统归纳和总结，对于我国探索有中国特色的大国外交之路具有十分重要的意义。它有助于开启我国外交的新征程、开创我国外交的新局面。     

珠江三角洲在中国与亚太经济中扮演的角色

珠江三角洲在中国与亚太经济中扮演的角色许小波本文试图回顾改革开放前后两个时期珠江三角洲在中国和亚太经济中扮演的不同角色、角色的演变及其在经济增长中的作用，总结从中得到的启示，并进一步分析未来１５年要使经济社会持续发展，珠江三角洲在中国与亚太经济中应该...     

我国职业中学发展历程的回顾与反思

对建国以来职业中学的发展历程进行了回顾,根据不同时期职业中学的发展特点将其分为起步调整、恢复发展、结构调整、全面改革四个发展时期。通过对每个阶段的相关政策、发展规模以及整体特点进行分析归纳,描绘出我国职业中学60年来发展变化轨迹,对职业中学发展的经验教训的总结同时,也对我国职业中学同社会经济发展的关系进行了解读。     

改革开放前后我国社会主义建设理论与实践差异探析

我国改革开放前后的社会主义建设在理论上具有传承性，实践上具有连续性，但两个时期社会主义建设的理论及实践分剐属于不同的体系和模式，理论与实践互动的结果各具特色。科学评价两个时期的社会主义建设应该突破非对即错的简单思维逻辑，客观看待不同时期不同理论成果与历史实践的实际价值。     

列宁的社会主义经济建设思想与实践研究

在列宁的社会主义经济建设实践中 ,以 1 92 1年春为界 ,分为前后两个不同时期。在这两个不同时期里 ,列宁分别实行了两种根本不同的经济政策。本文就列宁在经济政策方面出现的重大转折 ,从思想认识上和历史背景上作深入探讨和分析     

秦汉时期北方生态与民俗文化

相对于人类社会而言，生态是影响人类在一定历史时期内生存和发展的所有外部条件。生态对人类社会的诸多事象具有一定的影响。生态对秦汉时期的北方民俗的形成与存在就具有一定的影响乃至决定作用，不同的生态条件是长城以北、关中、关东等地不同风俗形成和流行的基础之一；另一方面，透过秦汉时期北方各地千差万别的习俗，我们又可洞窥生态的差异。从生态的视野透视某一时期或地区的民俗是我们研究社会历史之客体时应予以引入的新的质素。     

山东房价与商品房空置率、居民收入关系研究

利用1998年以后的有关主要统计数据,对山东房价和商品房空置率、城镇居民收入进行了关系分析。结果显示,一个时期的房价,与商品房空置率、城镇居民收入有着显著的相关关系;研究结果也表明,住房分配货币化这些年来,总体情况分析,我省房价与收入比基本稳定在相对合理的区间,但房价对不同收入群体、不同的区域有着明显的影响。     

规模经济与企业制度创新

规模经济与企业制度创新南京大学经济学系项目组产业组织规模创新与江苏经济发展的新机遇１９７９年以来，江苏经济发展的机遇可以从以下两个时期的动态变化来展开分析。第一个时期：１９７９年至８０年代中后期，这是江苏经济发展的黄金时期，不仅自始至终地抓住了主导产...     

新疆工业“低速低效”运行的原因与对策

一、新疆工业经济运行的现状与发展趋势(一)对新疆工业发展速度问题的分析.1980年至1994年与历史时期相比,新疆工业的发展速度并不慢.新疆工业总产值除了在一些特殊时期,如解放初期的国民经济“三年恢复”和“一五”时期,年均增长率在20%以上;“文革十年动乱”时期在3—7%之间之外,其他时期都在11—15%之间.但与全国相比,新疆工业发展速度相对较慢.而且,值得注意的是,自1980年以来,全国工业总产值年均增长率呈上升趋势;新疆则相反,呈下降状态.与全国一样,新疆工业内部不同所有制工业的发展速度是不平衡的.以发展速度由快至慢排序,新疆与全国不同所有制工业发展速度的排序相同,即以城乡个体工业、其他工业、集体工业、国有工业为序.与全国不同的是,新疆国有工业企业的发展速度快于全国国有工业企业的发展速度,     

资本市场系统性风险的监测与度量——基于金融压力指数的视角

在全面学习境内外机构编制金融压力指数监测系统性风险的基础上，梳理中国资本市场高风险时期列表，并通过ROC检验来筛选对高风险时期敏感的基础指标，构建了更好地反映中国资本市场风险特征的金融压力指数。本研究构建的资本市场金融压力指数能够匹配从资本市场角度监测系统性风险这一应用场景，并且该指数在2015年6—8月股市异常波动时期、2016年1月熔断机制导致短期流动性枯竭时期、2019年中美贸易摩擦加剧时期及2020年2月新冠疫情冲击资本市场时期均突破预警线，具有较好的实证效果。     

Variation in trajectories of women’s marital quality

I examine variation in trajectories of women’s marital quality across the life course. The analysis improves upon earlier research in three ways: (1) the analysis uses a sequential cohort design and data from the first 35 years of marriage; (2) I analyze rich data from a national sample; (3) I examine multiple dimensions of marital quality. Latent class growth analyses estimated on data from women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-1979 (N = 2604) suggest multiple trajectories for each of three dimensions of marital quality, including two trajectories of marital happiness, two trajectories of marital communication, and three trajectories of marital conflict. Socioeconomic and demographic covariates are then used to illustrate how factors such as income, cohabitation, and race-ethnicity set individuals at risk of poor marital quality throughout the life course by differentiating between high and low trajectories of marital quality. Women on low marital quality trajectories are, as expected, at much greater risk of divorce. Taken together, these findings show how fundamental socioeconomic and demographic characteristics contribute to subsequent marital outcomes via their influence on trajectories of marital quality as well as providing a better picture of the complexity in contemporary patterns of marital quality.     

论婚姻与信用

信用是人类婚姻关系内蕴的伦理要求及其得以维系的道德资本。婚姻的法律信用、道德信用和心理信用是婚姻质量不同程度的标示。婚姻二维性的博弈所形成的张力,使婚姻呈现出不同的信任状态。功利型婚姻信任具有脆弱性和易变性,认知型婚姻信任对婚变具有一定的抗震性,信念型婚姻信任能够降低婚变的潜在风险。     

论婚内侵权民事责任制度的构建

我国现行《婚姻法》在追究婚内侵权行为民事责任上存在严重的缺陷,不能对受害人进行有效的司法救济。基于"人格独立"、"男女平等"以及婚姻秩序的要求,在民法这一私法范畴内,构建婚内侵权民事救济机制,确定不同的侵权救济方式,以及建立夫妻一方在婚姻关系存续期间由于另一方的侵权而寻求法律保护的司法救济制度,不仅有利于遏止夫妻间的侵权行为,维护受害者的基本权利,以及婚姻家庭的稳定乃至于社会的稳定,也是我国社会发展和完善民事立法的进一步要求。     

Later first marriage and marital success

The research reported here used measures of marital success based on both marital survival and marital quality to assess how well first marriages entered at relatively late ages fare in comparison with those entered younger. Analysis of data from five American data sets indicated that the later marriages fare very well in survival but rather poorly in quality. The greatest indicated likelihood of being in an intact marriage of the highest quality is among those who married at ages 22-25, net of the estimated effects of time since first marriage and several variables that might commonly affect age at marriage and marital outcomes. The negative relationship beyond the early to mid-twenties between age at marriage and marital success is likely to be at least partially spurious, and thus it would be premature to conclude that the optimal time for first marriage for most persons is ages 22-25. However, the findings do suggest that most persons have little or nothing to gain in the way of marital success by deliberately postponing marriage beyond the mid-twenties.     

Labor Market and Socioeconomic Effects on Marital Stability

This paper reports an investigation of the effects of socioeconomic and labor market factors on the dissolution of marriages since the mid 1960s. We examine the effects of possible sources of marital disruption, including poor labor market opportunities for young adults; the economic independence and improved labor market opportunities of women; and changes in the labor market roles and expectations of women within marriage. Using the National Longitudinal Surveys of Young Men, Young Women, and Youth, we estimate the effects on marital stability of husbands′ and wives′ levels, differences and changes in educational attainment, income, and annual weeks worked. Our results suggest that average levels of couples′ educational attainment and recent work experiences positively affect marital stability. The degree to which husbands and wives differ on educational attainment and income does not affect marital stability, but the more that wives work relative to their husbands, the greater the chances of disruption. Positive changes in wives′ socioeconomic and labor force characteristics over the course of their marriages increase the odds of marital disruption.     

Housework, market work, and “doing gender” when marital satisfaction declines

When faced with a decline in marital satisfaction, are wives constrained from increasing their labor market work time in part because they “do gender?” One of the predictions of the human capital accumulation hypothesis, which assumes no constraints, is that housewives with little work experience will respond to a decline in marital satisfaction by increasing labor market work time (only). In contrast, the gender display hypothesis predicts that, in settings where the evaluations of marriage and wives’ work performance are closely intertwined, a decline in marital satisfaction among this group of housewives will increase both labor market work and housework—and the increase in housework serves as a constraint on the increase in labor market work. To evaluate these contrasting hypotheses, we analyze a panel survey of women in contemporary Japan. Results from multinomial logit regression models are more consistent with the gender display hypothesis than the human capital accumulation hypothesis. Housewives with relatively little work experience are 11 times more likely to increase the time spent on both labor market work and housework when the satisfaction of their marriage declines than when it does not. No evidence is found that, when marital satisfaction declines, these housewives are statistically significantly more likely to increase labor market work only.     

Specialization and happiness in marriage: A U.S.–Japan comparison

This paper examines the relationship between specialization and happiness in marriage in the U.S. and Japan. Our findings, based on the General Social Surveys in the U.S. and Japan, indicate both similarities and differences in the determinants of marital happiness in the two countries. In the U.S., the findings are mixed. Women’s reported marital happiness in the U.S. is more likely to follow the predictions of the bargaining model where their happiness is determined by their own income. Men’s marital happiness in the U.S. follows the predictions of the specialization model; they are happier if their wives are not working or, alternatively, if they are financially dependent on their wives. In Japan, we find support for the specialization model, particularly in the case of women; they are happier if they are specialized in the household and they have a higher household income. Our research highlights how marital quality is affected by the institutional context and the normative environment.     

舟曲藏族的婚俗研究

位于甘肃省南部的舟曲藏族具有非常独特的历史文化,由于种种原因,我国藏学界对她的研究还很欠缺,本文在田野调查的基础上,运用历史学、人类学、民族学、民俗学的相关理论对舟曲藏族的婚姻习俗展开论述,在对舟曲藏族的婚姻过程进行“深描”的基础上探讨了舟曲藏族婚俗的历史、特点,分析了其中的特殊要素和现实意义,并针对具体情况提出了相应的对策。     

Widening the social context of disablement among married older adults: Considering the role of nonmarital relationships for loneliness

Utilizing the stress process and life course perspectives, we investigated the influence of non-spousal social support on the associations between marital quality, physical disability, and loneliness among married older adults. Using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), we found that the association between physical disability and loneliness was partially accounted for by the fact that physical disability was associated with less supportive nonmarital relationships. While physically-disabled older adults in higher-quality marriages were buffered from loneliness, supportive non-martial relationships did not offset elevated loneliness among those in low-quality marriages. These associations were largely similar for men and women. Thus, although both marital and nonmarital relationships are important for loneliness, when confronted with a stressor such as disablement it is the marital relationship alone that matters.     

Assimilation by the third generation? Marital choices of white ethnics at the dawn of the twentieth century

It is well known that marital ethnic endogamy declines by immigrant generation, but there is little information on how many generations are required for full marital assimilation. This study for 1880-1910 includes information on the birthplace of men’s grandparents, so we can compare the first, second, third, and later generations. We estimate the odds of marrying a native white woman with native-born parents (NWNP) for Irish, Germans, British, and men of other ethnicities. Most groups even in their third generation still show a significantly lower rate of marital assimilation than native stock men. But mixed ancestry (having at least one NWNP parent or grandparent) can result in nearly complete marital assimilation by the third generation.