Should trade barriers be phased-out slowly? A case study of North America

A dynamic computable general is developed to analyze the effects of different phase-in rates of the Canada–US and North American Free Trade Agreements on their member countries, as well as the impact on the rest of their trading partners. The model is based on intertemporal optimization behavior of households and firms with fully specified countries/regions in which all prices and quantities are endogenously determined. I show that the size and the distribution of the welfare gains from these trade agreements are quite sensitive to the speed of trade liberalization. In particular, I find as a general rule that smaller member countries are better off under a more rapid phase-out of trade barriers, while larger member countries/regions are better off under a slower phase-out.     

Hungary in transition: a computable general equilibrium model comparison with Austria

We approach the problem of Hungary's transformation from a partially centrally planned to a market-oriented economy with a cross-country comparison using two computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of Hungary, 1977 and 1986, and one of Austria, 1976. These three models represent a continuum of small open economies and allow a “quasidynamic” analysis using static CGE models. We examine two types of transformation issues: external (trade liberalization, import price reductions, and redirection of foreign trade; “Dutch Disease reversal”) and internal (decreases in subsidy levels). Overall, it is clear that with Hungary's borrowing constraints, liberalization should not be pursued in isolation; a change in the tax structure is necessary at the same time. The results for Austria indicate that liberalization brings smaller welfare improvements accompanied by smaller increases in the current account and government deficits.     

中国—东盟自由贸易区原产地规则签证操作程序变动分析

根据中国与东盟签署的《第二议定书》,2011年1月1日起,中国—东盟自由贸易区启用新版原产地证(FormE),并对原产地规则项下的签证操作程序进行修正。此次修正的目的是促进贸易便利化,提高中国—东盟自由贸易区优惠关税的利用率。进出口企业应随时关注协议的变化,以便在与东盟国家的贸易中充分享受中国—东盟自贸协定项下的关税优惠待遇和提高通关效率。     

Agricultural policies and migration in a U.S.-Mexico free trade area: A computable general equilibrium analysis

A United States-Mexico agreement to form a free trade area (FTA) is analyzed using an 11-sector, three-country, computable general equilibrium model that explicity models farm programs and labor migration. The model incorporates both rural-urban migration within Mexico and international migration between Mexico and the United States. In the model, sectoral import demands are specified with a flexible functional form, an empirical improvement over earlier specifications, which use a constant elasticity of substitution function. Using the model, we identify trade-offs among bilateral trade growth, labor migration, and agricultural program expenditures under alternative FTA scenarios. Trade liberalization in agriculture greatly increases rural- urban migration within Mexico and migration from Mexico to the United States. Migration is reduced if Mexico grows relative to the United States and also if Mexico retains farm support programs. However, the more support that is provided to the Mexican agricultural sector, the smaller is bilateral trade growth. The results indicate a policy trade-off between rapidly achieving gains from trade liberalization and providing a transition period long enough to assimilate displaced labor in Mexico without undue strain.     

广西北部湾经济区专业化人力资本配置研究——基于需求与供给视角

专业化人力资本是经济增长的主要原因和基本动力之一,是广西北部湾经济区发展的重要保障。经济区经济增长,建设中国—东盟开放合作的物流基地、商贸基地、加工制造基地和信息交流中心,以及经济区成功运转等,构成对专业化人力资本的需求;而全国高校尤其是广西本地高校,以及海外尤其是东盟国家则构成供给方。经济区专业化人力资本的高效配置,需要国家财政加大对中西部高等教育的投入,加快经济区经济发展,建立专业化人力资本高地,努力创造人尽其才的环境,建立专业化人力资本充值市场,以及加强中国—东盟自由贸易区专业化人力资本的交流。     

重新认识WTO

世界主义主张以WTO推进贸易自由化,促进各国经济和福利增长。民族主义则反对贸易自由化。WTO正是这个两种力量妥协的产物,它既体现了世界主义也包容了民族主义。现实的贸易体制是自由贸易与保护贸易畸轻畸重的组合。WTO并不像自由贸易理论所说的那样,对民族国家只有好处,没有坏处,它对民族国家有利也有弊。     

中国与东盟国家经济合作的障碍与对策分析

2010年,中国—东盟自由贸易区将如期建成,这是中国和东盟深化合作、建立全面稳定合作关系的重要标志。与欧洲联盟及北美自由贸易区主要由发达国家构成不同,中国和东盟大多数国家都是发展中国家。要走出一条有中国—东盟自由贸易区特色的区域经济合作之路,就要整合产业结构,加强政府间的合作与交流,推动企业成为经济合作的主体。     

日美对外贸易政策的取向及启示

日本和美国的对外贸易政策是随着国内外经济环境的变化而不断地进行调整和完善的。一方面,对外贸易政策在总体趋势上呈现自由化;另一方面,又根据各自经济贸易发展的实际大力推行管理贸易。中国在对外贸易政策的选择上,既要将贸易自由化作为对外贸易政策的基本取向,更要适应国际贸易发展趋势,加大实施管理贸易的力度。     

创新:中国与东盟经贸合作发展的不竭动力

自从1991年中国与东盟建立对话关系以来,中国与东盟经贸合作快速发展,这得益于双方不断创新。组建自由贸易区、举办中国—东盟博览会等均是中国和东盟经贸合作的重大创新举措。尤其是双方积极合作,把新机制、新举措落在了实处,并使之转化成了实实在在的经济利益,惠及中国和东盟各国,乃至整个东亚地区。在今后双方关系发展的新阶段,我们应继续坚持创新,积极增强合作活力。作者建议:双方政府间应继续坚持平等互利、协商一致的原则,应充分发挥非政府组织的作用,企业间合作应以创新为本。坚持开拓创新,中国与东盟经贸合作的发展必将带来“双赢”的局面。     

中日韩自由贸易区发展进程分析

中日韩三国贸易往来密切,三国自21世纪开始都积极推进国际区域经济合作发展战略,都与其他国家和地区建立了具有特色的区域经济合作组织。中日韩自由贸易区民间可行性研究已经结束,目前进行官产学联合研究,分析中日韩各自的RTA状况及特点,分析中日韩FTA进程,有利于我国实施FTA战略和经济稳定发展。     

TBT的贸易效应及我国的应对措施

国际贸易中的技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)倾向越来越强,制约了我国利用国际市场的深度和广度,使我国贸易条件趋向恶化,贸易得益减少。应采取提高国民技术经济意识,完善与国际接轨的技术标准体系,强化技术创新体系,提升产业结构等一系列宏观、微观措施来促进我国外贸的健康发展。     

中国对越南经济发展的作用

历史上中国与越南具有类似的历史渊源,在经济与社会方面保持着较为密切的联系。中国经济对越南经济的影响举足轻重,尤其是中国的改革开放对越南经济产生深远的影响。随着中国—东盟自由贸易区建设进程的加快,双边贸易、中国对越南投资等方面得以不断深化发展,使两国的经济联系更加紧密。     

推动广西与越南经贸关系发展途径探析

中越两国关系正常化以来,特别是随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的建成,中越两国间的经贸合作越来越紧密,经济、政治、文化交流与合作活动也越来越频繁。广西作为中国通往越南、通往东南亚各国的重要门户,有着其自身的发展优势。广西政府、企业如何把握机遇、发展对越经贸合作,实现优势互补,促进地区经济发展、构建社会主义和谐社会,是我们目前也是下一阶段的研究任务。     

政经合一与中国周边外交的拓展

新世纪中国周边外交的拓展有赖于平衡安全合作与经济增长两个方面。本文首先梳理了周边外交在整个中国国际战略和外交格局中的地位,进而分别以中国亚洲贸易格局调整与企业“走出去”战略为例,论述了贸易、投资如何与安全合作、地区合作相互促进,拓展了中国的周边外交。中国～东盟自由贸易区和上海合作组织的制度建设快速增进了东南亚、中亚与中国的投资贸易关系,而投资贸易关系的深化又促进了中国的周边外交。中国与周边国家的关系进入了一个日渐均衡的相互依赖阶段。     

中国—东盟区域银行业金融机构合作分析

中国和东盟开展银行业金融机构合作不仅是中国国家整体外交的需要,也是中国金融业可持续发展、金融业发展壮大的必然要求。目前,中国与东盟银行业金融机构合作主要表现为银行边贸结算和互设金融机构。中国应抓住中国—东盟自由贸易区建成等机遇,完善合作机制,分三个层次展开与东盟国家的银行业金融机构合作。     

Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

中越婚姻制度比较研究

随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立,两国的经贸、人员交往日益密切,跨国婚姻迅猛增长。在此背景下,对中越两国婚姻法进行系统的比较研究,概括两国婚姻法异同及借鉴成功的立法经验,着重对不同之处进行析评,以期方便两国人民的交往。     

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议对东亚生产网络的影响与中国应对

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议（TPP）在美国的积极推动下发展迅速,以成员国全面零关税、知识产权保护、劳工权利和环保等议题为特点,提出建立高质量和高标准的自由贸易区。东亚生产网络格局虽逐步形成,但仍存在许多矛盾和问题,中国还处于价值链的中低端。随着美国主导TPP的不断发展,中国在东亚生产网络中的地位从外部需求、区域合作和贸易标准等多方面均面临新的挑战。中国应正视和关注TPP发展动态,完善东亚生产网络格局,推动东北亚经济合作,积极应对TPP可能带来的变化。     

中国—东盟自由贸易区:进程回顾与前景展望

通过对中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)四年半来的历程进行系统回顾和总结,重点分析早期收获计划、货物贸易自由化、服务贸易自由化、投资自由化等几个重要方面,最后对其前景及所面临的新形势和新挑战做出分析和展望。     

论南宁与东盟各国人力资源的开发与合作

人力资源开发与合作是中国-东盟自由贸易区建设的重要内容之一。随着中国-东盟自由贸易区建设的逐步推进,加强南宁与东盟各国人力资源的开发与合作成为了南宁市一项重大而紧迫的战略任务。