制度整合:中国人口新形势下政策选择

本文分析并阐述了中国在人口再生产类型进入“三低”阶段的新形势下,政策选择必然是在维持现有人口政策不变的前提下,进行多维制度整合,从而促进生育观念的根本改变。     

The elimination of contraceptive acceptor targets and the evolution of population policy in India

In 1996 the government of India announced a new national population policy that eliminated numerical targets for new contraceptive acceptors. This paper examines the history of target setting in India and factors that led to the elimination of targets. The analysis is based on published and unpublished reports on India's population policy and the family planning programme and interviews with senior Indian and foreign officials and population specialists. Five factors are identified as playing a role in the evolution from target setting to a target-free policy: (1) the research of India's academics; (2) the work of women's health advocates; (3) the support of officials in the state bureaucracy who approved the target-free approach; (4) the influence of the donors to India's family planning programme, especially the World Bank; and (5) the International Conference on Population and Development.     

Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary

Following steep falls in birth rates in Central and Eastern European countries during the economic and institutional restructuring of the early 1990s, governments made substantial efforts to stop or at least reduce the fertility decline. In Hungary, parents with three or more children could benefit from specific new policy measures: the flat-rate child-rearing support paid from the youngest child's third to eighth birthdays (signalling recognition of stay-at-home motherhood) and a redesigned and upgraded tax relief system. However, the success of these policy measures, if any, is difficult to detect in aggregate statistics. Analysing data from the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey, we rely on event history methods to examine the policies’ effects on third birth risks, especially among different socio-economic groups. The results indicate that while the child-rearing support increased third birth risks among the least educated, the generous tax relief had a similar effect for parents with tertiary education.     

From susceptibility to frailty in social networks: The case of obesity

The obesity pandemic is represented by a discrete-time Hopfield Boolean network embedded in continuous-time population dynamics. The influence of the social environment passes through a system of differential equations, whereby obesity spreads by imitation of the most influential neighbors, those who have the highest centrality indices in the network. This property is called “homophily.” Susceptibility and frailty are redefined using network properties. Projections of the spread of obesity are validated on data collected in a French high school.     

Government policy and personal family planning approval in conflict settings: The case of the Muslim minority in the Southern Philippines

Summary Certain minority groups in a number of culturally pluralistic societies have interpreted governmentally sponsored family planning programmes as vehicles for reducing one basis for potential political power, i.e. the minority group's share of the total population. This has especially been the case in societies with protracted inter-group conflict. Such a conflict situation is found in the Southern Philippines between indigenous Muslims and arriving Christian settlers. Contrasting Muslim women in predominantly Muslim and in pluralistic-Muslim minority settings into which there have been sizeable Christian incursions, we suggest that though cultural pluralism has facilitated the dissemination of the national government's position on family planning, the nature of culture contact, and inter-group conflict could have provoked personal opposition to family planning because of its links with the government.     

The role of demographic data in the operation of public policy: a case study of the job training partnership act

To work at the state and local levels, the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) requires specific kinds of demographic data. Unemployment figures, poverty information, occupational supply and demand data, wage structure, and many other types of data are used in planning and operating JTPA programs, and in modifying the performance standards by which the programs are evaluated. The decennial census provides some key data and thus some significant types of information become less timely as the decade progresses. Furthermore, the framers of the Act had little or no knowledge of the forms in which data are collected and thus definitions given in the Act do not always agree with definitions used in the demographic data which are available. The policymakers for future government benefit programs could learn from this mistake: before writing legislation which is so heavily dependent on demographic data, they should ascertain what types of data are available or can be generated for use in the program.     

Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: A search for commonalities

Near‐global fertility decline began in the 1960s, and from the 1980s an increasing number of European countries and some Asian ones achieved very low fertility (total fertility below 1.5) with little likelihood of completed cohort fertility reaching replacement level. Earlier theory aiming at explaining this phenomenon stressed the incompatibility between post‐industrial society and behaviour necessary for population replacement. Recent theory has been more specific, often concentrating on the current Italian or Spanish situations or on the contrast between them and the situation in either Scandinavia or the English‐speaking countries, or both. Such an approach ignores important evidence, especially that from German‐speaking populations. The models available concentrate on welfare systems and family expenses, omitting circumstances that may be unique to individual countries or longer‐term factors that may be common to all.     

The Role of Multiculturalism in the Discursive Rescaling of an Eastern European City

Abstract

Eastern European cities have been going through complex transformations in the wake of the revolutionary year 1989. Their restructuring has been marked by an abrupt transition from the centralized economy and totalitarianism of the communist period to the free market economy of new capitalism and democracy, under pressures for regionalization and globalization. The article looks at how City Hall texts (available in print and in digitalized form on the City Hall website) draw upon a historically rooted discourse of regional multiculturalism, constantly rearticulating it with EU neoliberal discourses of economic growth and competitiveness, participatory democracy, and interregional cooperation. The texts are thus seen as part of an ongoing strategy employed by the local authorities to rescale the city of Timi?oara, the capital of the Banat region (near the western border of the country), as an emerging multicultural regional centre and a pole of mobility. This process is taking place against the backdrop of the recontextualization of the region’s historic identity in academic texts produced by local (mostly) intellectuals, who are concerned with a reassessment of the concepts of ‘Central Europe’ and interculturalism in the postcommunist context.     

Evolution of an urban epidemic: The first 100,000 AIDS cases in New York City

Between 1981 and August 1997, 100,000 AIDS cases were reported in New York City (NYC): 77,067 men, 20,818 women, 307 teenagers, and 1,808 children. This report examines AIDS trends in NYC as the epidemic evolved from a predominantly white male epidemic among men with same sex contact (MSM) mostly from a single borough to a geographically diffuse epidemic that includes injecting drug users (IDU), persons of color, and women infected heterosexually. Case data were collected by active surveillance methods augmented by electronic laboratory based reporting. Mortality data were obtained from NYC Vital Statistics. 1990 Census data were used to derive incidence rates and prevalence by neighborhood income. Rates per 100,000 adults by neighborhood ranged from 260 to 5,500. Total AIDS incidence peaked in 1993 and has subsequently declined. Among men there was a shift from MSM to IDU as the predominant risk group, and increasing incidence among men reporting heterosexual contact. IDU was the leading risk factor among women, and women increased from 8 to 30 percent of all cases between 1982 and 1997. Unlike incidence, AIDS prevalence is rising among socially and economically marginalized populations, and will remain a major public health challenge well into the next century.     

Perceptions of quality of life in an industrializing country: The case of the Republic of Korea

Research on perceived quality of life to date has been confined to industrialized countries mostly in the West. As a result, very little has been known about the quality of life perceived and desired by the people living in industrializing countries. This study has sought to fill this void by analyzing data collected from a national sample survey conducted recently in Korea. The analysis has produced a number of results which do not accord with those from research undertaken in industrialized countries.     

The quality of urban life and the perception of livability: A case study of neighbourhoods in Benin City,Nigeria

Third World cities face many persistent planning problems. The problems persist partly because planning has not been sufficiently responsive to local peculiarities. This lack of responsiveness is in turn because of the gross scale at which problems are conceived and attacked. One of the persistent problems in all Nigerian cities is their poor environmental quality. This study, therefore, seeks to investigate the environmental problems of Benin City, capital of Bendel State of Nigeria. Six environmental dimensions are measured and analysed. A composite conceptual index of quality of life is derived from the six dimensions, and compared with an index of perceived quality for each area. The study adopts the neighbourhood as the unit in collecting and analysing data, and in proposing solutions. It is recommended that planning administration in Benin City must be decentralized, if it is to be more responsive to intra-city environmental eccentricities, and improve the quality of life.     

西安市人口合理容量测算实证研究

如何科学地测定一个城市人口的合理容量，对于确保人口与资源、环境。以及经济社会的协调发展等方面。都具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文在系统分析影响城市人口容量诸因素的基础上．运用大量统计资料和数据。建立城市人口容量预测模型，对西安市2010年和2015年的合理人口容量进行了测算。     

The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature

This paper examines the theoretical propositions and empirical evidence linking policies and fertility. More specifically, the analysis presented in this paper draws attention to the complex mechanisms that theoretically link policies and demographic outcomes: mechanisms that involve imperfect information and decisions that are rationally bound by very specific circumstances. As to the empirical evidence, studies provide mixed conclusions as to the effect of policies on fertility. While a small positive effect of policies on fertility is found in numerous studies, no statistically significant effect is found in others. Moreover, some studies suggest that the effect of policies tends to be on the timing of births rather than on completed fertility.

Gay officers in their midst: heterosexual police employees' anticipation of the consequences for coworkers who come out

While fear among gay men and lesbians about being out in a masculinist environment is not surprising, this article examines what heterosexuals expect will happen when gay men and lesbians come out. We draw on a unique dataset from a police department in the southwest United States to examine the consequences anticipated by heterosexual police department employees if a gay or lesbian officer's sexual orientation became known in the workplace. We test four main sets of factors: individual-level demographic characteristics and religious background; homophobia; organizational tolerance for discrimination; and intergroup contact theory to explain how heterosexuals expect gay and lesbian coworkers to be treated. Using ordinary least squares regression, we find that characteristics of workplaces, measured by tolerance of discrimination, as well as contact with gay men and lesbians on the job are more significant predictors of anticipated outcomes than are individual-level traits and homophobic attitudes. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our research.     

The importance of demographic analyses in state- and local-level policy evaluations: A case study analysis of property taxes in Texas,USA

The reluctance of policy-makers to incorporate detailed demographic analyses in policy analyses often means that population composition is ignored in state and local policy evaluations. This article uses standard demographic projection, standardization and rate decomposition techniques to examine the implications of changing population composition for the property tax revenue base of Texas. The authors find that if current socioeconomic differentials persist into the future, projected compositional changes in the household population of Texas will significantly impact property tax revenues. Thus revenue projections based on aggregate growth and current average property value would seriously overestimate future property tax revenues in Texas because changes in the composition of the population lead to disproportionate growth in households likely to live in lower valued housing unite. The results indicate that the continuing focus of state and local policy-makers on changes in population size alone may be ill-advised and demonstrate the increasing importance of local- and state-level demographic analysis in a period of increasing Federal devolution of service provision.     

独生子女政策对人力资本水平的影响研究--基于2005年1%人口抽样调查微观数据的实证研究

本文利用2005年1%人口抽样调查的微观数据估计了独生子女政策对中国人力资本水平的影响效应,为独生子女政策是否实现了“优生优育”的政策目标提供实证证据。研究发现,独生子女政策显著提高了独生子女的人力资本水平,促使他们获得高中及以上教育程度的概率平均提高了2．7个百分点。本文还发现,独生子女政策对人力资本水平的影响效应在城乡和性别间存在显著差异,在城市的影响效应大于农村,对女性的影响大于男性,独生子女政策一定程度上扩大了人力资本水平的城乡差距,然而对缩小性别间的人力资本差距起到积极作用,进一步研究发现人力资本水平的性别间差距缩小作用主要发生在城市内部,城市女性是独生子女政策的最大受益者。最后,本文通过缩小样本的出生时间范围、与少数民族样本的对比、控制父母亲的个人特征以及采用不同的人力资本衡量指标等方法对估计结果进行了稳健性检验,结果相当稳健。     

企业短视行为对知识失业的影响——基于北京市用人市场的调查分析

本文从市场经济的角度探求知识失业的深层次原因,通过对北京市用人市场进行问卷调查分析,发现市场经济条件下企业的短视行为是导致知识失业的重要原因之一,并提出意见和建议。     

非政府组织对流动农民工子女教育的支持——以广东省东莞市横沥镇隔坑社区服务中心为例

在二元体制下,由于社会网络缺失,国家建构起来的正式社会支持系统无法满足外来农民工的需求。这为非政府组织介入流动农民工子女教育支持提供了机遇。作为一个为外来农民工服务的非政府组织．广东省东莞市横沥镇隔坑社区服务中心除作为政府的补充为流动农民工子女提供教育类公共物品．为外来农民工提供社会支持,以便其子女完成学业,提升其融入城市的能力之外,同时还为流动农民工子女提供家庭教育方面的支持。     

Mind the Gap: The Tempo Rubato of Dwelling in Lineups

Abstract

Despite their prominence in everyday life lineups are of peripheral concern to mobility scholars. Aiming to contribute to our existing knowledge on lineups and the transitory places of everyday life writ large, this paper attempts investigates lineups at small island ferry terminals. Drawing upon fieldwork including travel to, on and from ferry boats, for a total of about 250 journeys over three years, and about 400 qualitative interviews, this mobile ethnography focuses on practices of ferry mobility in coastal British Columbia. Lineups are portrayed as complex orchestrations of rest and movement weaved through relational performances of mobility and relative immobility. As neither a place in the sedentarist nor nomadic sense, lineups defeat facile, dichotomous conceptualizations of spatialities and temporalities. Neither still nor flowing, neither public nor private, lineups are animated by idiosyncratic practices of dwelling whereby multiple and unique forms of livelihood are performed. Ferry lineups are ephemeral moorings: places where communities form and dissolve in temporary zones, as if suspended from the regular rhythms of the rest of the day and the week. On small islands lineups exist as stolen time‐spaces – an original concept that draws inspiration from the musical idea of tempo rubato and from Michel de Certeau’s (1984) treatment of tactics.     

The making of a ghetto: Spatially concentrated poverty in New York City in the 1980s

In recent years a debate has arisen over which of two mechanisms — class selective household mobility or spatially focused increases in poverty — has been the driving force in concentrating poverty in certain inner-city neighborhoods. This paper utilizes a multivariate analysis to identify the processes underlying areal income-class transition in New York City during 1978–1987, and the areal characteristics that predict a consistent path of change. By anchoring the analysis at the level of the individual housing unit, this study disentangles the competing mechanisms of poverty concentration and demonstrates that both selective mobility and shifts in income class contribute to areal income-class transition, but that the latter mechanism accounts for a greater amount of change. Further, after controlling for the proportion of minority residents and public housing units in the area, the results show that location in poor areas is associated with poor in-movement, nonpoor out-movement, and downward shifts in the income class among long-term residents. These mutually reinforcing processes lead to continued decline in extreme- and high-poverty areas, while processes in the opposite direction sustain the economic vitality of low-poverty areas.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1992 meetings of the Population Association of America in Denver, Colorado.