中国制造还具有劳动力成本优势吗

本文利用2002-2011年的制造业数据核算比较了中国与主要竞争国家的制造业单位劳动力成本,发现我国单位劳动力成本已经高于印尼、泰国和马来西亚等东南亚国家。具体地,东部地区单位劳动力成本2002年以后高于印尼,2007年超过我国中西部地区和泰国,2011年超过马来西亚;中西部地区单位劳动力成本2002年以后高于印尼,2009年超过泰国,2011年超过马来西亚,主要原因在于我国小时劳动力成本上升过快。因而,与印尼、泰国、马来西亚等东南亚国家相比,我国已不具有劳动力成本优势,再加上近年来我国人口红利的消失,中西部地区劳动力成本也已高于东南亚国家,因而,可以解释我国中西部地区为何没能及时接收东部地区的产业转移。     

Fertility in Poland during the 1980s: analysis of a maternity questionnaire

Recent fertility trends in Poland are analyzed using data from a mail survey conducted in 1984. The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of women who gave birth in 1984, their husbands, and their parents are examined. The results show an increase in fertility in the early 1980s, particularly in urban areas.     

CONVERSATIONS WITH EDWIN J.G. PITMAN

Edwin Pitman was born on 29th October, 1897, in Melbourne, Victoria. He was Professor of Mathematics at the University of Tasmania from 1926 until his retirement in 1962. His publications on distribution-free methods in Statistics established a sound basis for the development of these methods. His theoretical papers gave a sound mathematical treatment of the concepts of intrinsic accuracy and sufficiency, and a definitive treatment of estimation problems for location and scale parameters. The concept of asymptotic relative efficiency is due to him. He was elected a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science (FAA) in 1954, a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics in 1948, President of the Australian Mathematical Society in 1958 and 1959, and Vice-President of the International Statistical Institute in 1960. He was elected an Honorary Life Member of the Statistical Society of Australia in 1966, an Honorary Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society in 1965, and an Honorary Life Member of the Australian Mathematical Society in 1968.
In 1977, in honour of his eightieth birthday, the University of Tasmania conferred on him an Honorary Doctorate of Science, and the Statistical Society of Australia instituted the Pitman Medal (1979), to be awarded to a member of the Society for high distinction in Statistics.
The conversations recorded here took place in May, 1991, at Pitman's home in Hobart, Tasmania.     

得失与启示：我国统计学博士学位论文选题统计分析

 统计学博士是统计科研的中坚力量之一,其博士论文在一定程度上反映了当时我国统计学科研的热点和前沿,代表着我国统计教育的先进水平。本文通过对1987-2009年509篇统计学博士学位论文的选题及其研究内容进行统计,分析其变动规律和特点,总结选题的得失与启示,为今后科学选题以及进一步深入开展统计学术研究提供参考依据。     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

Likelihood ratio-based distribution-free sequential change-point detection

Most existing control charts are for monitoring location or scale parameters, rather than any change in process distribution such as shift in shape. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) test can detect any change in distribution. This paper develops a new distribution-free control chart by integrating a powerful two-sample nonparametric likelihood ratio GOF test into the effective change-point model. Our proposed chart is easy in computation, convenient to use, and very efficient in detecting any change in process distribution, including shifts in location, scale, and shape. It is also robust in detecting various magnitudes of shifts and especially powerful in monitoring any distributional change involving a decrease in scale.     

企业不同发展阶段治理机制和绩效的关系研究

通过对企业不同的成长阶段中股权结构、董事会结构、债务结构和内部人持股对企业绩效的影响进行理论分析,提出相关的理论假设,并在此基础上通过回归方程进行回归分析得出结论:二元制的董事会的领导权结构在成熟期企业内对企业的业绩产生了显著的影响,而在成长期企业中则不显著;独立董事对成长期和成熟期企业的业绩都有显著的有利的影响;股权制衡力在成长期企业中对企业业绩产生了显著的负影响,而在成熟期企业内并没对企业的绩效产生显著的影响;债务融资对成长期企业和成熟期企业的业绩都有显著的负影响;增加高管持股比例在成熟期企业中有利于增加企业的绩效,但是在成长期企业中则会对企业的业绩产生负面的影响;股权集中度的增加会对企业的绩效产生不利的影响,这种不利的影响在成长期企业中更为显著。     

Teacher shortages, teacher contracts and their effect on education in Africa

Summary.  To enhance primary enrolment rates, many African countries have launched large teacher recruitment programmes in recent years. Given tight budgetary constraints, teachers are no longer employed in civil service positions, but on the basis of (fixed term) contracts typically implying considerably lower salaries and a sharply reduced amount of professional training. We analyse the effect of this change on educational quality in Niger, Togo and Mali, on the basis of very informative data, which are comparable across these countries. We use a variety of estimation techniques, including a non-parametric estimation of quantile treatment effects. Our results demonstrate that contract teachers tend to reduce inequalities in student outcomes. Overall, the effects are positive in Mali, somewhat mixed in Togo and negative in Niger. This ordering is consistent with theoretical expectations related to the manner in which contract teacher programmes were implemented differently in each of the three countries under study.     

统计教育现状分析与思考

近几年统计教育规模不断下降的状况已引起人们的高度重视和思考。形成目前状况的原因,既有诸如统计法规宣传不力、人才质量与社会需求相背离、统计数据质量不高等外部原因,也有教育自身在教育模式、教育结构、教育功能、教育标准、教育资源、教学过程等方面存在的问题。我们只有理性地看待统计教育发展现状,认真分析其产生原因,逐个剖析,深入挖掘,抓住主要矛盾,加大改革力度,采取有利措施,才能促进统计教育健康稳步地发展。     

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.     

A residual-based test for autocorrelation in quantile regression models

Quantile regression (QR) models have been increasingly employed in many applied areas in economics. At the early stage, applications in the QR literature have usually used cross-sectional data, but the recent development has seen an increase in the use of QR in both time-series and panel data sets. However, testing for possible autocorrelation, especially in the context of time-series models, has received little attention. As a rule of thumb, one might attempt to apply the usual Breusch–Godfrey LM test to the residuals of a baseline QR. In this paper, we demonstrate analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations that such an application of the LM test can result in potentially large size distortions, especially in either low or high quantiles. We then propose a correct test (named the QF test) for autocorrelation in QR models, which does not suffer from size distortion. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed test performs fairly well in finite samples, across either different quantiles or different underlying error distributions.     

Nineteenth and early twentieth century statistics: Some New Zealand connections

William Stanley Jevons published his statistical analysis of the climate of Australia and New Zealand, in 1858. Florence Nightingale advised Sir George Grey to collect statistics on M a ori health. Frederick William Frankland published a significant study of mortality in New Zealand, in 1882; and in 1890 George Hogben pioneered the application of statistics to seismology. These people all contributed to statistical knowledge in New Zealand, but were not New Zealanders. Earnest Rutherford, Leslie John Comrie and Alexander Craig Aitken were born and educated in New Zealand, but they worked mainly in the UK. In 1911 Rutherford made very effective use of statistics in discovering the nuclear structure of atoms; in 1937 Comrie pioneered the use of punched-card machinery for large-scale statistical analysis; and Aitken did very important work in mathematical statistics.     

A Review of Laura S. Young's Bookbinding & Conservation by Hand: A Working Guide

Abstract

University librarians in China face many of the same challenges related to serials management that confront librarians in the United States. The authors discuss the importance for librarians in the United States, especially those working with serials, to establish and build ties with librarians in other countries, such as China. Benefits of an exchange could include sharing information about best practices, exchange of serial materials, and working together on mutually advantageous projects. Acknowledging the growing interest in international library exchange programs, the authors relate their own institution's efforts to build international ties with Fudan University in Shanghai, China, and Shaanxi Normal University in Xi'an, China. In establishing these ties, the authors have traveled to China and interviewed librarians about serials acquisition, processing, and management.     

中国国家价值链：区域关联特征与增加值收益变化

本研究通过1997、2002、2007、2012年中国区域间投入产出表,从中间品关联、增加值关联、投入产出关联三方面的视角度考察了中国8大区域间的国家价值链（NVC）现状及其演变趋势,并测算了不同地区参与NVC的增加值收益变化。研究发现,无论是中间品关联,还是增加值关联,中国8大区域间的关联程度总体呈现上升趋势,当然,不同地区也呈现分化现象：西北、京津、中部地区的国内中间品关联指数更高一些,而东北与东南沿海地区的该指数更低一些;京津、西北地区的增加值后向关联指数较大,而中部地区与北部沿海地区的增加值前向关联指数较大。从投入产出关联视角看,中国8大区域的上游度指数与下游度指数在1997年时均超过2,而且1997-2012年间,更多地区的上、下游度指数呈现上升态势。当然,从区域的角度考察,中国国内价值链不具有明显的“微笑曲线”特征。从参与NVC的增加值获益率上看,则是内陆地区普遍高于沿海地区,但随着参与GVC程度的增加,各地区从参与NVC的增加值获益率有下降的趋势。     

On correlation analysis of many‐to‐many observations: an alternative to Pearson's correlation coefficient and its application to an ecotoxicological study

Correlation studies are an important hypothesis‐generating and testing tool, and have a wide range of applications in many scientific fields. In ecological studies in particular, multiple environmental variables are often measured in an attempt to determine relationships between chemical, physical and biological factors. For example, one may wish to know whether and how soil properties correlate with plant physiology. Although correlation coefficients are widely used, their properties and limitations are often imperfectly understood. This is especially the case when one is interested in correlations between, say, trace element content in sediments and in marine organisms, where no one‐to‐one correspondence exists. We show that evaluating Pearson's correlation coefficient for either site‐specific means or composite samples results in biased estimates, and we propose an alternative estimator. We use simulation studies to demonstrate that our estimator generally has a much smaller bias and mean squared error. We further illustrate its use in a case study of the correlation between trace element content in sediments and in mussels in Lyttelton Harbour, New Zealand.     

中国上市公司雇员股票期权价值核算：2006-2018年

根据SNA2008建议将雇员股票期权作为雇员报酬处理,2017年发布的《中国国民经济核算体系（2016）》中也正式将雇员股票期权纳入国民经济核算范围,但至今尚未发布具体数据。基于此,本文以Cvitani等（2008）提出的融入了雇员股票期权主要特征的雇员股票期权定价模型为基础,结合我国股票期权附带业绩条件的分期执行模式,以沪深两市A股上市公司的数据为例,科学核算了2006-2018年我国各年份以及各行业的雇员股票期权价值。结果显示,从全国层面看,我国雇员股票期权价值总体上呈现快速增长趋势,年均增速为41.48%;从行业层面看,雇员股票期权价值集中特征明显,制造业,信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业和房地产业的雇员股票期权价值合计占全部行业的比重超过80%。结合实际核算过程中遇到的难点,本文提出了我国开展雇员股票期权核算需完善会计制度与统计制度的相关建议。     

中国省际贸易矩阵的估计与应用

基于2012年中国31省市的投入产出表,借鉴国内资金流量表、投入产出分析方法和社会核算矩阵理论编制了中国省际贸易矩阵,估计和分析了各地区省际间贸易往来规模及特征,并进行了各地区贸易往来影响效应的比较。结果发现：北京、海南等省际贸易依存度较高,四川、山东等省内贸易比例较大,江苏、北京等省际贸易总量较大,而青海、西藏等省际贸易总量较小;北京、上海等发达省份之间的贸易往来较为密切,同时一些中部省份是贸易流入的主要地区;北京、上海等呈现较强的影响力和感应度,浙江、江苏等沿海省份有着较强的感应度和较弱的影响力,宁夏、陕西等西部省份呈现较强影响力和较弱的感应度。     

The sensitivity of estimates of the change in population behaviour to realistic changes in bias in repeated surveys

Summary.  The first British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL) was conducted in 1990–1991 and the second in 1999–2001. When surveys are repeated, the changes in population parameters are of interest and are generally estimated from a comparison of the data between surveys. However, since all surveys may be subject to bias, such comparisons may partly reflect a change in bias. Typically limited external data are available to estimate the change in bias directly. However, one approach, which is often possible, is to define in each survey a sample of participants who are eligible for both surveys, and then to compare the reporting of selected events that occurred before the earlier survey time point. A difference in reporting suggests a change in overall survey bias between time points, although other explanations are possible. In NATSAL, changes in bias are likely to be similar for groups of sexual experiences. The grouping of experiences allows the information that is derived from the selected events to be incorporated into inference concerning population changes in other sexual experiences. We use generalized estimating equations, which incorporate weighting for differential probabilities of sampling and non-response in a relatively straightforward manner. The results, combined with estimates of the change in reporting, are used to derive minimum established population changes, based on NATSAL data. For some key population parameters, the change in reporting is seen to be consistent with a change in bias alone. Recommendations are made for the design of future surveys.