Comparing confidence intervals for the logarithmic series distribution

It is assumed that a small random sample of fixed size n is drawn from a logarithmic series distribution with parameter θ and that it is desired to estimate θ by means of a two-sided confidence interval. In this note Crow's system of confidence intervals is compared, in shortness of intervals, with Clopper and Pearson's, and the corresponding randomized counterparts.     

Non-parametric estimation of an acceleration parameter

Let X₁,… X_m be a random sample of m failure times under normal conditions with the underlying distribution F(x) and Y₁,…,Y_n a random sample of n failure times under accelerated condititons with underlying distribution G(x);G(x)=1?[1?F(x)]^θ with θ being the unknown parameter under study.Define:U_ij=1 otherwise.The joint distribution of _ijdoes not involve the distribution F and thus can be used to estimate the acceleration parameter θ.The second approach for estimating θ is to use the ranks of the Y-observations in the combined X- and Y-samples.In this paper we establish that the rank of the Y-observations in the pooled sample form a sufficient statistic for the information contained in the U_ii 's about the parameter θ and that there does not exist an unbiassed estimator for the parameter θ.We also construct several estimators and confidence interavals for the parameter θ.     

Some Pitman closeness properties pertinent to symmetric populations

In this paper, we focus on Pitman closeness probabilities when the estimators are symmetrically distributed about the unknown parameter θ. We first consider two symmetric estimators θ?₁ and θ?₂ and obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for θ?₁ to be Pitman closer to the common median θ than θ?₂. We then establish some properties in the context of estimation under the Pitman closeness criterion. We define Pitman closeness probability which measures the frequency with which an individual order statistic is Pitman closer to θ than some symmetric estimator. We show that, for symmetric populations, the sample median is Pitman closer to the population median than any other independent and symmetrically distributed estimator of θ. Finally, we discuss the use of Pitman closeness probabilities in the determination of an optimal ranked set sampling scheme (denoted by RSS) for the estimation of the population median when the underlying distribution is symmetric. We show that the best RSS scheme from symmetric populations in the sense of Pitman closeness is the median and randomized median RSS for the cases of odd and even sample sizes, respectively.     

Estimating with percentile grouped and truncated date from a scale parameter distribution

Data which is grouped and truncated is considered. We are given numbers n₁<…<n_k=n and we observe X_ni ),i=1,…k, and the tottal number of observations available (N> n_k is unknown. If the underlying distribution has one unknown parameter θ which enters as a scale parameter, we examine the form of the equations for both conditional, unconditional and modified maximum likelihood estimators of θ and N and examine when these estimators will be finite, and unique. We also develop expressions for asymptotic bias and search for modified estimators which minimize the maximum asymptotic bias. These results are specialized tG the zxponential distribution. Methods of computing the solutions to the likelihood equatims are also discussed.     

Interval estimation for the Pareto distribution based on the progressive Type II censored sample

For the complete sample and the right Type II censored sample, Chen [Joint confidence region for the parameters of Pareto distribution. Metrika 44 (1996), pp. 191–197] proposed the interval estimation of the parameter θ and the joint confidence region of the two parameters of Pareto distribution. This paper proposed two methods to construct the confidence region of the two parameters of the Pareto distribution for the progressive Type II censored sample. A simulation study comparing the performance of the two methods is done and concludes that Method 1 is superior to Method 2 by obtaining a smaller confidence area. The interval estimation of parameter ν is also given under progressive Type II censoring. In addition, the predictive intervals of the future observation and the ratio of the two future consecutive failure times based on the progressive Type II censored sample are also proposed. Finally, one example is given to illustrate all interval estimations in this paper.     

A small sample confidence interval for autoregressive parameters

This paper is concerned with interval estimation of an autoregressive parameter when the parameter space allows for magnitudes outside the unit interval. In this case, intervals based on the least-squares estimator tend to require a high level of numerical computation and can be unreliable for small sample sizes. Intervals based on the asymptotic distribution of instrumental variable estimators provide an alternative. If the instrument is taken to be the sign function, the interval is centered at the Cauchy estimator and a large sample interval can be created by estimating the standard error of this estimator. The interval proposed in this paper avoids estimating this standard error and results in a small sample improvement in coverage probability. In fact, small sample coverage is exact when the innovations come from a normal distribution.     

Niveaudurchagangszeiten zur charakterisierung sequentieller schätzverfahren

Let θ be a parameter of a homogenous additive stochastic process. In order to get an unbiased and efficient estimator for a function h(v) one has often to use sequential procedures. In this paper we consider processes of the socalled exponential class. We study level crossing times, which characterize certain sequential estimations. It is shown that the family of level crossing times for an increasing sequence of levels is also a process of the exponential class. The density function of the one-dimensional probability distributions of this new process is given Examples and applications conclude the paper.     

Bayesian life test sampling plans for the two parameter exponential distribution

In this paper we consider the determination of Bayesian life test acceptance sampling plans for finite lots when the underlying lifetime distribution is the two parameter exponential. It is assumed that the prior distribution is the natural conjugate prior, that the costs associated with the actions accept and reject are known functions of the lifetimes of the items, and that the cost of testing a sample is proportional to the duration of the test. Type 2 censored sampling is considered where a sample of size n is observed only until the rth failure occurs and the decision of whether to accept or reject the remainder of the lot is made on the basis of the r observed lifetimes. Obtaining the optimal sample size and the optimal censoring number are difficult problems when the location parameter of the distribution is restricted to be non-negative. The case when the positivity restriction on the location parameter is removed has been investigated. An example is provided for illustration.     

On the validation of fiducial techniques

A structured model is essentially a family of random vectors X_θ defined on a probability space with values in a sample space. If, for a given sample value x and for each ω in the probability space, there is at most one parameter value θ for which X_θ(ω) is equal to x, then the model is called additive at x. When a certain conditional distribution exists, a frequency interpretation specific to additive structured models holds, and is summarized in a unique structured distribution for the parameter. Many of the techniques used by Fisher in deriving and handling his fiducial probability distribution are shown to be valid when dealing with a structured distribution.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for the generalized poisson distribution when sample mean is larger than sample variance

The generalized Poisson distribution (GPD), studied by many researchers and containing two parameters θ and λ, has been found to fit very well data sets arising in biological, ecological, social and marketing fields. Consul and Shoukri (1985) have shown that for negative values of λ the GPD gets truncated and the model becomes deficient; however, the truncation error becomes less than 0.0005 if the minimum number of non-zero probability classes ≥ 4 for all values of θ and λ and the GPD model can be safely used in all such cases. The problem of admissible maximum likelihood (ML) estimation when the sample mean is larger than the sample variance is considered in this paper which complements the earlier work of Consul and Shoukri (1984) on the existence of unique ML estimators of θ and λ when the sample mean is smaller than or equal to the sample variance.     

TIGHT UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMITS FROM DISCRETE DATA

Consider the problem of finding an upper 1 –α confidence limit for a scalar parameter of interest ø in the presence of a nuisance parameter vector θ when the data are discrete. Approximate upper limits T may be found by approximating the relevant unknown finite sample distribution by its limiting distribution. Such approximate upper limits typically have coverage probabilities below, sometimes far below, 1 –α for certain values of (θ, ø). This paper remedies that defect by shifting the possible values t of T so that they are as small as possible subject both to the minimum coverage probability being greater than or equal to 1 –α, and to the shifted values being in the same order as the unshifted ts. The resulting upper limits are called ‘tight’. Under very weak and easily checked regularity conditions, a formula is developed for the tight upper limits.     

The Gamma Distribution as a Mixture of Exponential Distributions

A gamma distribution with arbitrary scale parameter θ and shape parameter r < 1 can be represented as a scale mixture of exponential distributions.     

Small sample distribution of the likelihood ratio test in the random effects model

In this paper we examine the small sample distribution of the likelihood ratio test in the random effects model which is often recommended for meta-analyses. We find that this distribution depends strongly on the true value of the heterogeneity parameter (between-study variance) of the model, and that the correct p-value may be quite different from its large sample approximation. We recommend that the dependence of the heterogeneity parameter be examined for the data at hand and suggest a (simulation) method for this. Our setup allows for explanatory variables on the study level (meta-regression) and we discuss other possible applications, too. Two data sets are analyzed and two simulation studies are performed for illustration.     

Fixed width confidence intervals for the location parameter of an exponential distribution

We study confidence intervals of prescribed width for the lo-cation parameter of an exponential distribution. Asymptotic expan-sions up to terms tending to zero are obtained for the coverage probability and expected sample size. The limiting distribution of the sample size is given from which an asymptotic expression for the variance of the sample size is deduced. Sequential procedures with non-asymptotic coverage probability are also investigated     

The Geometric ArcTan distribution with applications to model demand for health services

In this paper , a new discrete two–parameter distribution α ∈ ? ? {0} and 0 < θ < 1, the Geometric ArcTan (GAT) distribution is introduced. The geometric distribution is a limiting case of this model when α tends to zero. Similarly to the the latter distribution, this probabilistic family is unimodal but the mode can be located at zero or in other point of the support. Then, after deriving some of its more relevant properties , the issue of parameter investigation is investigated. Next, the GAT distribution is used to explain the demand for health services by means of a regression model. Numerical results show that this new model outperforms the negative binomial distribution.     

Computational comparison of the general weighted moments estimators of the scale parameter of a Pareto distribution with a known shape parameter with other estimators based on a multiply type II-censored sample

Wu et al. [Computational comparison for weighted moments estimators and BLUE of the scale parameter of a Pareto distribution with known shape parameter under type II multiply censored sample, Appl. Math. Comput. 181 (2006), pp. 1462–1470] proposed the weighted moments estimators (WMEs) of the scale parameter of a Pareto distribution with known shape parameter on a multiply type II-censored sample. They claimed that some WMEs are better than the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) based on the exact mean-squared error (MSE). In this paper, the general WME (GWME) is proposed and the computational comparison of the proposed estimator with the WMEs and BLUE is done on the basis of the exact MSE for given sample sizes and different censoring schemes. As a result, the GWME is performing better than the best estimator among 12 WMEs and BLUE for all cases. Therefore, GWME is recommended for use. At last, one example is given to demonstrate the proposed GWME.     

Bivariate Sign Test for One-Sample Bivariate Location Model Using Ranked Set Sample

In this article, we introduce a bivariate sign test for the one-sample bivariate location model using a bivariate ranked set sample (BVRSS). We show that the proposed test is asymptotically more efficient than its counterpart sign test based on a bivariate simple random sample (BVSRS). The asymptotic null distribution and the non centrality parameter are derived. The asymptotic distribution of the vector of sample median as an estimator of the locations of the bivariate model is introduced. Theoretical and numerical comparisons of the asymptotic efficiency of the BVRSS sign test with respect to the BVSRS sign test are also given.     

Performance of Interval Estimators for the Inverse Hypergeometric Distribution

The inverse hypergeometric distribution is of interest in applications of inverse sampling without replacement from a finite population where a binary observation is made on each sampling unit. Thus, sampling is performed by randomly choosing units sequentially one at a time until a specified number of one of the two types is selected for the sample. Assuming the total number of units in the population is known but the number of each type is not, we consider the problem of estimating this parameter. We use the Delta method to develop approximations for the variance of three parameter estimators. We then propose three large sample confidence intervals for the parameter. Based on these results, we selected a sampling of parameter values for the inverse hypergeometric distribution to empirically investigate performance of these estimators. We evaluate their performance in terms of expected probability of parameter coverage and confidence interval length calculated as means of possible outcomes weighted by the appropriate outcome probabilities for each parameter value considered. The unbiased estimator of the parameter is the preferred estimator relative to the maximum likelihood estimator and an estimator based on a negative binomial approximation, as evidenced by empirical estimates of closeness to the true parameter value. Confidence intervals based on the unbiased estimator tend to be shorter than the two competitors because of its relatively small variance but at a slight cost in terms of coverage probability.     

An information-theoretic approach to incorporating prior information in binomial sampling

The incorporation of prior information about θ, where θ is the success probability in a binomial sampling model, is an essential feature of Bayesian statistics. Methodology based on information-theoretic concepts is introduced which (a) quantifies the amount of information provided by the sample data relative to that provided by the prior distribution and (b) allows for a ranking of prior distributions with respect to conservativeness, where conservatism refers to restraint of extraneous information about θ which is embedded in any prior distribution. In effect, the most conservative prior distribution from a specified class (each member o f which carries the available prior information about θ) is that prior distribution within the class over which the likelihood function has the greatest average domination. The most conservative prior distributions from five different families of prior distributions over the interval (0,1) including the beta distribution are determined and compared for three situations: (1) no prior estimate of θ is available, (2) a prior point estimate or θ is available, and (3) a prior interval estimate of θ is available. The results of the comparisons not only advocate the use of the beta prior distribution in binomial sampling but also indicate which particular one to use in the three aforementioned situations.     

Bayesian predictive modeling for Inverse Gamma-Pareto composite distribution

Inverse Gamma-Pareto composite distribution is considered as a model for heavy tailed data. The maximum likelihood (ML), smoothed empirical percentile (SM), and Bayes estimators (informative and non-informative) for the parameter θ, which is the boundary point for the supports of the two distributions are derived. A Bayesian predictive density is derived via a gamma prior for θ and the density is used to estimate risk measures. Accuracy of estimators of θ and the risk measures are assessed via simulation studies. It is shown that the informative Bayes estimator is consistently more accurate than ML, Smoothed, and the non-informative Bayes estimators.