大数据视角下名录库更新维护——基于互联网异源异构数据整合的探讨

统计系统基本单位名录库是统计数据质量的基石,现有数据源在成本、时效性、数据提供者负担方面存在劣势。为此,提出一种互联网大数据整合视角下的名录库更新维护思路：从参与者行为、数据质量角度论证了将异源异构互联网作为名录库更新数据源的优势,讨论了名录库基本信息、属性信息及地理定位信息获取的技术手段,并给出实例应用。     

建立基本单位名录库构想

1996年 ,我们进行了第一次基本单位普查工作。因经济的发展与管理工作的需要 ,在此基础上 ,许多地方对建立基本单位名录库进行有效益的尝试 ,由于建库目标、标准、经济能力等各方面的原因 ,严格说我们的建库工作存在着一些问题 ,在全国第二次基本单位普查即将展开之际 ,如何搞好基本单位名录库设计 ,是当务之急 ,本文以第一次基本单位普查的建库经验、教训为镜 ,以法国基本单位名录库为鉴 ,以第二次基本单位普查为契机 ,就建立系统、全面、及时的基本单位名录库阐述自己的一些观点。　　 一、基本单位名录库工作的现状在统计实际工作中 ,基…     

全国基本单位名录库系统的安全管理策略

全国基本单位名录库是根据１９９６年全国基本单位普查资料第一次建立,并通过有关行政记录或统计调查定期进行更新维护的名录库。为使用户能够安全、合理、方便地使用普查资料,更好地为各项统计调查、统计制度方法改革提供服务,必须保证名录库系统的安全、完整、可用。...     

新制度下名录库更新维护工作存在的问题和建议

基本单位名录库是统计调查工作的基础,经过近十年的建设,基本单位名录库在统计工作中的作用已显得越来越重要。做好基本单位名录库工作,掌握全面准确的基本单位信息是做好统计年报、定期报表、普查、抽样调查的重要前提,对于开展统计抽样调查、推进统计方法制度改革、提高统计数据质     

浅谈基本单位名录库的更新与维护

基本单位是国家宏观调控体系中最基本的单元。无论是开展各项普查还是抽样调查方法,其重要前提和基础就是必须准确而全面的掌握统计的总体单位数。因而在此基础上建立的基本单位名录库,其统计数据要全面、完善而有效,才能基本满足各级政府及相关部门管理的需要,同时也能为各项普查和抽样调查提供完善的字典库和名录抽样框。可见,建立全面、准确的基本单位名录库具有十分重要的意义,而保证基本单位名录库的全面、准确主     

四川名录库系统建设的现状和未来(之一)

根据国办发[2001]63号文件《国务院办公厅关于认真做好第二次全国基本单位普查的通知》规定,通过这次基本单位普查,要最大限度地衔接和统一有关部门的单位认定标准和代码,加快相关部门之间的网络互联和信息共享,在中央、省、地、县四级逐步建立和完善部门间相互衔接、互为补充、信息共享且能适时更新的基本单位名录库系统,安全、高效、全方位地为各级党委、政府和行政管理部门提供决策支持。为社会公众提供信息咨询。 基本单位名录库系统是建立住第二次全国基本单位普查基础上的为中央省市县四级党委、政府宏观决策和行政管理提供信息咨询、跟踪监测和分析研究的决策支持系统和应用信息系统。基本单位名录库覆盖全国31个省及我省的21个市州、180个县(市、区)所有企业法人、事业法人、机关法人、社团法人和其他法人及法人所附属的产业活动单位的基本标识、主要属性、基本状态和主要经济指标。     

基普名录库与年报名录库衔接的探讨

在实际工作中,由于各方面的原因,一些地区为了单纯完成基本单位年报工作,对名录库进行修改时,只修改了参加年报汇总的单位,没有参加年报汇总的单位一直未被更新或已被删除,导致普查库是普查库,年报库是年报库,年报库和普查库出现了“两层皮”。普查库的更新和维护主要是通过统计年报进行的,更新和维护的过程就是普查库与年报库的衔接过程。2002年年报是第二次全国基本单位普查后的第一个年报,如何利用普查库建立     

我国基本单位名录库与美国企业登记名录库的比较

国家统计局目前提出大力开展"四大工程"建设,建设基本单位名录库是其中之首,这充分表明基本单位名录库在政府管理和统计工作中的基础作用。建立基本单位名录库的工作在我国历史不长,基于1996年第一次全国基本单位普查建立的基本单位名录库至今,仅有十几年的历程。对比美国发展了近40年     

对基本单位名录库建设的思考

难以完整的现状 近几年来，为加强行政监管，工商、税务、技监、统计、民政、编制等部门均从部门的职能出发，依据自身的行政记录，建立了各自的单位名录库。但由于多方面的原因，部门间的名录库没有相互衔接和信息共享，基本单位名录库难以适时更新，从而大大降低了其应有的作用。掌握各类基本单位的数量以及各类单位的组织形式、经济成分构成、规模结构、生产要素配置和地区、行业分布等情况，仍需依赖五年一次的基本单位普查，这不仅浪费人力和财力，也增加了基层负担。 从第二次基本单位普查过程中基普库与几个部门库的核对情况看…     

基本单位名录库应统一管理分专业维护

第一次基本单位普查以后，我国开展了基本单位名录库更新维护工作。其组织方式为统一管理、集中维护，即名录库的管理和维护集中由各级基本单位统计机构负责。维护方式为通过建立基本单位年报来实现对名录库的更新维护。按照这一模式，我国已连续五年组织开展了对名录库的更新维护工作。从实施情况看，主要存在以下问题： 1.名录库更新维护工作不能满足专业统计的需要； 2.现行的组织方式造成了基本单位统计与专业统计是“两张皮”，基本单位名录库作为各专业年定报点名录库的作用没有发挥出来； 3.基层机构设置和人员配备不健全，…     

Address register research for the 1991 census of Canada

"The current Canadian census is based on the local enumerator who lists and visits each dwelling in his/her enumeration area to drop off the questionnaires just before census day. Other approaches to compiling an address list exist, however. This paper describes current research into the use of an address register for the next Canadian census, to take place in 1991. Possible applications of an address register are described, earlier research is summarized and potential sources for an address register in the Canadian context are mentioned. The paper concludes with a number of concerns which must be addressed in addition to the more technical issues."     

How increased automation will improve the 1990 census of population and housing of the United States

"The U.S. Bureau of the Census will increase significantly the automation of operations for the 1990 Census of Population and Housing, thus eliminating or reducing many of the labor-intensive clerical operations of past censuses and contributing to the speedier release of data products. An automated address control file will permit the computer to monitor the enumeration status of an address. The automated address file will also make it possible to begin electronic data processing concurrently with data collection, and, thus, 5-7 months earlier than for the 1980 Census. An automated geographic support system will assure consistency between various census geographic products, and computer-generated maps will be possible. Other areas where automation will be introduced or increased are questionnaire editing, coding of written entries on questionnaires, and reporting of progress and cost by field offices."     

基于行政记录人口普查方法的国际比较

开展基于行政记录的人口普查被视为有效破解传统人口普查难题的途径之一,亦是顺应大数据时代充分挖掘人口行政记录资源的必然之选。本文较系统地阐述了基于行政记录人口普查方法的基本框架,尝试对“完全模式”人口普查和“组合模式”人口普查的实施步骤进行解析。基于此,本文选择芬兰、奥地利、瑞士、荷兰四个国家,分普查基本情况、行政记录类型选择和基本记录库形成、已存在统计记录系统基本结构、专门组织的抽样调查设计、不同系统间的链接途径、新人口统计信息质量评估方法等六个维度,对实施基于行政记录的人口普查方法进行了国家比较。     

价值链嵌入与经济周期联动——增加值的视角

本文利用1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年中国区域间投入产出表,从增加值的视角研究了价值链嵌入与经济周期联动性的关系。不同于存在重复统计问题的现行总值核算方法,本文基于区域流出的增加值完全分解框架,重新构建了增加值核算下的双边贸易强度和价值链贸易强度。实证结果表明双边贸易强度和价值链贸易强度分别对经济周期联动性有显著的正向和负向影响,验证了Frankel-Rose效应的存在和国内区域分工的替代性特征;从“地理偏好”角度,本文发现增加值供求的地域特征会强化价值链嵌入与经济周期联动性的关系;进一步,“第三方效应”分析表明双边贸易强度很大程度经由国内其他区域传导经济波动,而价值链贸易强度与经济周期联动性的关系则基本不受第三方效应的影响。     

Outlier Robust Small‐Area Estimation Under Spatial Correlation

Modern systems of official statistics require the estimation and publication of business statistics for disaggregated domains, for example, industry domains and geographical regions. Outlier robust methods have proven to be useful for small‐area estimation. Recently proposed outlier robust model‐based small‐area methods assume, however, uncorrelated random effects. Spatial dependencies, resulting from similar industry domains or geographic regions, often occur. In this paper, we propose an outlier robust small‐area methodology that allows for the presence of spatial correlation in the data. In particular, we present a robust predictive methodology that incorporates the potential spatial impact from other areas (domains) on the small area (domain) of interest. We further propose two parametric bootstrap methods for estimating the mean‐squared error. Simulations indicate that the proposed methodology may lead to efficiency gains. The paper concludes with an illustrative application by using business data for estimating average labour costs in Italian provinces.     

Bayesian Spatial Analysis for the Evaluation of Breast Cancer Detection Methods

This study investigated the impact of spatial location on the effectiveness of population‐based breast screening in reducing breast cancer mortality compared to other detection methods among Queensland women. The analysis was based on linked population‐based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged less than 90 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian hierarchical regression modelling approach was adopted and posterior estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. This approach accommodated sparse data resulting from rare outcomes in small geographic areas, while allowing for spatial correlation and demographic influences to be included. A relative survival model was chosen to evaluate the relative excess risk for each breast cancer related factor. Several models were fitted to examine the influence of demographic information, cancer stage, geographic information and detection method on women's relative survival. Overall, the study demonstrated that including the detection method and geographic information when assessing the relative survival of breast cancer patients helped capture unexplained and spatial variability. The study also found evidence of better survival among women with breast cancer diagnosed in a screening program than those detected otherwise, as well as lower risk for those residing in a more urban or socio‐economically advantaged region, even after adjusting for tumour stage, environmental factors and demographics. However, no evidence of dependency between method of detection and geographic location was found. This project provides a sophisticated approach to examining the benefit of a screening program while considering the influence of geographic factors.     

Information integration for constructing social statistics: history, theory and ideas towards a research programme

Summary.  More precise policy making at all levels of government has fuelled tremendous demand for small area data—smaller than ever before. At the same time, there has been an unprecedented accumulation of data in geographic information systems, administrative records databases and more sophisticated survey sampling schemes. Researchers and practitioners have been trying to combine these diverse sources of data. But how should these diverse sources of data be combined in a way that is policy relevant and statistically principled? The paper illustrates these questions with several example applications at the state, county and local level: emerging geographic information systems databases, the need for estimates of small area income, poverty, demographic and uninsurance data by health authorities, and how administrative records databases (such as licensed day care facilities, traffic counts and unemployment insurance records) are being harvested for their information content. Finally, the paper proposes approaches for integrating these diverse sources of data with different error, uncertainty and quality profiles, and surveys persistent challenges in this area.     

Perturbed robust linear estimating equations for confidentiality protection in remote analysis

National statistical agencies and other data custodians collect and hold a vast amount of survey and census data, containing information vital for research and policy analysis. However, the problem of allowing analysis of these data, while protecting respondent confidentiality, has proved challenging to address. In this paper we will focus on the remote analysis approach, under which a confidential dataset is held in a secure environment under the direct control of the data custodian agency. A computer system within the secure environment accepts a query from an analyst, runs it on the data, then returns the results to the analyst. In particular, the analyst does not have direct access to the data at all, and cannot view any microdata records. We further focus on the fitting of linear regression models to confidential data in the presence of outliers and influential points, such as are often present in business data. We propose a new method for protecting confidentiality in linear regression via a remote analysis system, that provides additional confidentiality protection for outliers and influential points in the data. The method we describe in this paper was designed for the prototype DataAnalyser system developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, however the method would be suitable for similar remote analysis systems.     

中国城乡商贸流通一体化的测度及其评价

城乡商贸流通一体化就是城乡之间在商流、物流、信息的一体化。城乡商贸流通体系一体化的度量维度包括：城乡商流一体化、城乡物流一体化和城乡信息流一体化。从三个维度建立城乡商贸流通体系一体化的评价指标体系,并运用1991—2008年间的数据对中国城乡商贸流通进行测度,并提出统筹城乡商贸的政策建议。     

SPC as a tool for creating a successful business measurement framework

Many companies are trying to get to the bottom of what their main objectives are and what their business should be doing. The new Six Sigma approach concentrates on clarifying business strategy and making sure that everything relates to company objectives. It is vital to clarify each part of the business in such a way that everyone can understand the causes of variation that can lead to improvements in processes and performance. This paper describes a situation where the full implementation of SPC methodology has made possible a visual and widely appreciated summary of the performance of one important aspect of the business. The major part of the work was identifying the core objectives and deciding how to encapsulate each of them in one or more suitable measurements. The next step was to review the practicalities of obtaining the measurements and their reliability and representativeness. Finally, the measurements were presented in chart form and the more traditional steps of SPC analysis were commenced. Data from fast changing business environments are prone to many different problems, such as the short previous span of typical data, strange distributions and other uncertainties. Issues surrounding these and the eventual extraction of a meaningful set of information will be discussed in the paper. The measurement framework has proved very useful and, from an initial circulation of a handful of people, it now forms an important part of an information process that provides responsible managers with valuable control information. The measurement framework is kept fresh and vital by constant review and modifications. Improved electronic data collection and dissemination of the report has proved very important.