Childhood and Capability Deprivation in Germany: A Quantitative Analysis Using German Socio-Economic Panel Data

Child poverty has been widely discussed in Germany since the publication of the third official Poverty and Wealth Report of the German government in 2008 which—inter alia—focused on the situation of children and families. However, child poverty is not only caused by low household incomes and impacts of child poverty are not only restricted to financial consequences. The capability approach takes into account this multidimensionality of well-being and poverty of children. It conceptualizes human well-being as not only depending on financial means but also gives the same importance to the personal and social conversion factors which determine how far financial means can be converted into personal well-being. Before 2008 the capability approach had only been applied to the well-being of adults in Germany, but not specifically to the well-being of children. However, there are several reasons why a capability analysis for children will differ from a capability analysis for adults. Adults’ capability sets comprise dimensions that are less relevant for small children while other valuable capabilities have to be added. Furthermore the capability set depends to a large extent on the age of the child. The paper focuses on a multidimensional poverty analysis in the capability perspective of 5–6 years old children. In the domains of “Education/Leisure”, “Health”, “Social Participation” and “Income” child poverty is measured by predefined indicators. The relationship to the social and personal conversion factors of the caretakers is then evaluated. Additionally, a multidimensional poverty measure is analyzed.     

Mortality transition in the Ovamboland region of Namibia, 1930-1990

Few long-term statistical series exist that can document the mortality transition in Africa. This paper uses data from the parish registers of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Namibia to study morality in Ovamboland between 1930 and 1990. The paper identifies significant discontinuities and reversals in the trend in mortality. Much of the mortality transition occurred in a rapid breakthrough concentrated between the early 1950s and early 1960s. Adult mortality fell more than existing model life tables would predict and the pattern of relatively high early-age mortality typical of modern Africa emerged only at this time. While a range of developments in Ovamboland contributed to the overall decline in mortality, the most important factor was the establishment, by the Finnish Mission, of a Western system of health care. In Ovamboland, the drive to 'good health at low cost' was articulated not through political institutions but through the church.     

Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in the Measurement of Rural Poverty: The Case of Iran

Poverty reduction is one of the major challenges confronting mankind and a principal obstacle to well-being for a large proportion of the world’s population. New paradigms of development as advocated by Chambers and others focus strongly on poverty reduction. Poverty is increasingly recognised as a multifaceted concept that can be elucidated through both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In researching poverty it is desirable to recognise both the value position of researchers and the values of local people. This paper uses qualitative and quantitative data and considers both outsiders’ and insiders’ views through the use of participatory approaches in selected rural areas of Iran. A poverty index is constructed and validated in a six-stage process. On the basis of the findings, a number of recommendations are made about appropriate approaches to the investigation of poverty.     

Modeling Disability Trajectories and Mortality of the Oldest-Old in China

This article uses a group-based modeling approach to jointly estimate disability and mortality trajectories over time based on data from the population aged 80 and older in China, and explores relations of demographic, socioeconomic, and early-life characteristics to membership in gender-specific trajectory groups. A three-group model best fits the data for both males and females. For most groups, predicted numbers of limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) increase with age, but the pace is gradual in some cases and rapid in others. For each gender, the estimated mortality probability trajectories for the three groups follow a hierarchy that is related to the predicted ADL counts at age 80. Only a few characteristics predict trajectory-group membership. Prior nonagricultural occupation is associated with less favorable disability trajectories for both genders. For females, rural residence, a greater number of children ever born, and having a father who did not work in agriculture are associated with more favorable trajectories. For a small group of males who received education, disability is moderate but changes little with age. Findings may reflect heterogeneity of survival among the least advantaged, as well as a possible expansion of morbidity among a small advantaged group.     

The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality

We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age-period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants.     

Predicting Consumption Poverty using Non-Consumption Indicators: Experiments using Indonesian Data

Household consumption expenditure data is crucial for calculating important welfare measures such as poverty headcount rate. However, collecting such data is difficult and cumbersome. As an alternative, we experiment with three methods – consumption correlates model, poverty probability model, and wealth index principal components analysis (PCA) – to predict consumption expenditure and poverty using non-consumption indicators. The purpose is to use these alternatives for rapid monitoring and appraisal of social welfare as an early warning system. We test each method’s performance and find that the consumption correlates model is the best method to predict poverty quickly and relatively accurately. We find that education level, asset ownership, and consumption pattern are the best predictors of expenditure and poverty.     

The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality

We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age–period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants.     

Community Types and Mortality in Georgia Counties

Using an “ecological regional analysis” methodology for defining types of communities and their associated mortality rates, this study of Georgia’s 159 counties finds that the suburban and town centered counties have low mortality while the city-centered type predicts low mortality for the whites. The military-centered counties do not predict. The rates for circulatory disease deaths show the same pattern. These findings are interpreted with the help of a new version of social ecology grounded in the ratio of the county’s problem-solving capacity to the threats it faces.     

Follow-up surveys for census estimates of maternal mortality: experiences from Bolivia and Mozambique

Maternal mortality measurement through special census questions will be a common practice in the 2010 census round. To check this information or make it cause-specific, some countries have experimented with follow-up surveys containing verbal autopsies or triangulation with administrative data. However, follow-up studies can be costly and not without complications. In order to assess the benefits, two such experiences are discussed in detail (Bolivia, 2002; and Mozambique 2007–2008) and two others mentioned more briefly (Islamic Republic of Iran, 1996; and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, 2008). In the former, several problems were apparent. In Mozambique, the follow-up survey used a cluster sample of 4.5% of deaths, from all causes. This design was adequate for the more common causes, but not for maternal mortality. Another problem was the large proportion of invalid cases (35.1%, plus 16% not verifiable) and the likelihood that there was a similar proportion of omitted deaths. The Bolivian census generated many invalid cases and missing ages, due in part to the flawed design of the questionnaire. This overburdened the follow-up, so that only 15% of the census deaths of women of reproductive age unrelated to pregnancy could be investigated. Once the false positives were eliminated, the results seem consistent with Growth Balance analyses, but the many classification errors compromise confidence in the results. Despite this mixed record of outcomes, it is believed that carrying out a limited number of similar studies in the current census round may be valuable, if appropriate lessons are learned from these experiences.     

Infant mortality decline in Chile: A replication

This replication of a previous analysis of the effect of sociological variables on infant mortality rates in Chile refines the earlier work by using the more numerous communes for comparisons, by presenting the basic data in the form of a path analysis, and by expanding the theory to include “health practices,” customs, such as avoiding teenage pregnancies, that are community-backed and maintained. This type of practice is then integrated into the “institutionalized problem-solving capacity” framework that guides the analysis. Urabnization and voting, the two indicators of institutionalized problem-solving capacity, predict reduced infant morality, as before. Teen pregnancies is a positive predictor, as expected, but the number of children already born does not predict. These results are net of two indicators of health technology-whether or not a physician was in attendance, and the number of clinics. Mother's education also predicted low infant morality, and the theory is applied to this well-known predictor to interpret its effect. In addition, the anomalous role of mother's education in the dominant biomedical explanation is highlighted.     

Dimensionality of the Chinese Perceived Causes of Poverty Scale: Findings Based on Confirmatory Factor Analyses

The Chinese Perceived Causes of Poverty Scale (CPCPS) was constructed to assess Chinese people’s beliefs about poverty. Four categories of explanations of poverty are covered in this scale: personal problems of poor people, lack of opportunities to escape from poverty, exploitation of poor people, and bad fate. Based on the responses of 1,519 Chinese secondary school students to the CPCPS, confirmatory factor analyses provided support for these four dimensions of the scale. By splitting the total sample into two sub-samples, further analyses showed that the CPCPS was invariant with reference to factor structure (configural invariance), factor loadings (construct-level metric covariance) and factor variances/covariances across different samples. The present findings are generally consistent with the previous findings based on exploratory factor analyses and they provide support for the use of the CPCPS for assessing beliefs about causes of poverty in Chinese people. The preparation for this work was financially supported by Wofoo Foundation.     

Poverty Diagnostics Using Poor Data: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Pro-Poor Policy Making in Lesotho

Increasingly national statistical agencies are being called upon to provide high quality data on a regular basis, to be used by governments for evidence-based policy development. Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) give impetus to this, and bring a prerequisite for comprehensive “poverty diagnosis”. Often the data that are required are not available, or are incomplete while the concepts that are to be used may be ambiguous or require adaptation to local conditions. The poverty analysis of Lesotho in this article represents a contribution towards the emerging culture of evidence-based policy-making in developing countries in that it explores changes in key poverty-related social indicators. Techniques for dealing with poor data are discussed and an approach to developing a poverty threshold adapted to the local conditions of Lesotho is described.     

Geographic Ancestry and Cause-specific Mortality in a National Population

There are marked differentials in mortality risks across regions in Finland. No exhaustive explanation to this variation has been provided, however. The aim of this paper is to analyse how geographic ancestry, as proxied by persons’ birth region and population group, interrelates with cause-specific mortality risks. Focusing on people aged between their mid-thirties and late-forties, we use longitudinal population register data that offer opportunities to account for variables that represent both persons’ social background and their own social status at young adult age. Results of Cox proportional hazard models say that these variables have substantial effects on mortality of different causes, but only a marginal impact on the variation in death rates by birth region and population group. The geographic mortality pattern is found to be specifically prominent for causes of death that are fairly unrelated to persons’ lifestyles. Our findings suggest that genetic predisposal as expressed in terms of geographic ancestry might play a relevant role in understanding mortality variation within the population of Finland.     

Variations in infant mortality rates among counties of the United States: The roles of public policies and programs

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the causes of the rapid decline in the infant mortality rate in the United States in the period after 1963. The roles of four public policies are considered: Medicaid, subsidized family planning services for low-income women, maternal and infant care projects, and the legalization of abortion. The most striking finding is that the increase in the legal abortion rate is the single most important factor in reductions in both white and nonwhite neonatal mortality rates. Not only does the growth in abortion dominate the other public policies, but it also dominates schooling and poverty.     

One-host one-parasitoid system: Population dynamics of a zygaenid mothPryeria sinica Moore in an undisturbed habitat

Summary The population dynamics ofPryeria sinica was investigated in an undisturbed area in 1976–1979. We analyzed the process stabilizing the local population by the life table approach for immature stages and the mark-recapture method for the adult stage. Females usually layed about 130 eggs in an egg-mass. The shape of the survivorship curve was convex and was characterized by a relatively low mortality in the egg and larval stages and by a relatively high mortality in the prepupal and pupal stages. The low mortality in the early stage seemed to be not only due to the peculiar life cycle of this species (larvae develop in early spring when natural enemies are not active) but due to their protective nest-webs, larval warning coloration and repellent smell. The high mortality after cocooning was caused by severe parasitization byAgrothereutes minousubae. The number of adult in the population varied by 2.10-fold, which was less than that of other gregarious moths. The life table data and field observations suggest that adult female dispersal would have acted as a stabilizing factor, andA. minousubae as a conditioning factor on the dynamics of the moth population.     

A modified Lee-Carter model for analysing short-base-period data

This paper introduces a new modified Lee-Carter model for analysing short-base-period mortality data, for which the original Lee-Carter model produces severely fluctuating predicted age-specific mortality. Approximating the unknown parameters in the modified model by linearized cubic splines and other additive functions, the model can be simplified into a logistic regression when fitted to binomial data. The expected death rate estimated from the modified model is smooth, not only over ages but also over years. The analysis of mortality data in China (2000-08) demonstrates the advantages of the new model over existing models.     

Personal Well-being in Urban China

This article reports the findings of a survey administering the personal well-being index (PWI) in six Chinese cities (N = 3,390) to ascertain the personal well-being of China’s urban population. The specific aims of the study were: (a) ascertain whether Chinese urban residents are satisfied with their lives; (b) validate the PWI using an urban sample that is representative of the urban population and larger in size than that which has been utilized in existing studies for Mainland China; (c) compare the results to existing studies for Hong Kong, Macau, rural China and single city studies which have administered the PWI in Guangdong and Shandong; (d) examine whether the responses to the PWI from participants falls within the narrow range predicted by the ‘Theory of Subjective Wellbeing Homeostasis’ and provide further evidence on whether this framework is applicable to Chinese samples; and (e) examine which participant characteristics predict personal well-being, examine whether own income and/or relative income predicts personal well-being and compare these results with previous studies for China and other countries. The data indicated a moderate level of personal well-being (PWI score = 67.1). The PWI demonstrated good psychometric properties in terms of its reliability and validity, consistent with previous published studies. The PWI was within the normative range for non-western countries and was within the narrow band predicted by the ‘Theory of Subjective Wellbeing Homeostasis’. Similar variables were found to predict personal well-being to those found in previous studies for China and elsewhere.     

Birth Outcome Measures and Infant Mortality

Recent studies have proposed alternative birth outcome measures as means of assessing infant mortality risk; nevertheless, there hasn’t yet been an integrated analysis of these approaches. We review 14 strategies, including various combinations of birth weight, gestational age, fetal growth rate, and Apgar scores—as predictors of early neonatal, late neonatal, and postneonatal mortality, and infant mortality. Using the NCHS linked birth/infant death file for 2001, we construct multivariate logit models and assess the associations between each of the 14 key birth outcome measures and four mortality outcomes. We find that all evaluated birth outcome measures are strong predictors, but Apgar scores are the strongest among all models for all outcomes, independent of birth weight and gestational age. Apgar scores’ predictive power is stronger for Mexican-, white-, and female-infants than for black- and male-infants. Second, all birth outcome measures remain significantly associated with mortality, but their predictive power reduces drastically over time. These findings suggest a rule of thumb for predicting infant mortality odds: when available, Apgar scores should always be included along with birth weight (or LBW status) and gestational age. Additionally, these findings argue for the continued study of low birthweight, gestational age, and Apgar scores as independently salient health outcomes.     

The Association Between Generalized Trust and Physical and Psychological Health Across Societies

This paper estimates a Multidimensional Poverty Index for Gauteng province of South Africa. The Alkire–Forster method is applied on Quality of Life survey data for 2011 and 2013 which offer an excellent opportunity for estimating poverty at smaller geographical areas. The results suggest that the Multidimensional Poverty Index for Gauteng is low but varies markedly by municipality and by ward, as well as across income groups. Not only are low income households more likely to be multidimensionally poor, they also suffer from higher intensities of poverty. Multidimensional poverty is highest in areas of low economic activity located on the edges of the province. However, pockets of multidimensional poverty do prevail even in better performing municipalities. Government, at all spheres, needs to devise policies that channel investments into lagging areas and avoid approaches that are indifferent to the heterogeneities that exist across localised geographical extents.     

The second great wall of China: Evolution of a successful policy of population control

Since the 1949 revolution, Chinese population policy has undergone many shifts that have alternated with general political trends. However, in the past two decades the policy has grown increasingly antinatalist as a response to slower-than-desired economic development and rapid population growth. The remarkable declines of fertility during this period have been made possible by effective contraceptive technology, efficient administration, tight political organization down to grass-roots levels, and by linking national goals of population control to patriotism. Recent minor reverses in policy and in fertility suggests that there are practical limits to such policies, but other countries have much to learn from the Chinese experience.This is an updated version of a paper published in theNPG Forum, Negative Population Growth, Inc. October, 1989.