A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

Fertility survey in the rural areas of Hubei Province]

In July, 1981, the staff of the Population Research Section of the Economics Department of Wuhan University and family planning personnel at the local level conducted a survey on fertility in the rural areas of Hubei Province. The survey was conducted in the forms of public opinion polls and individual conversations with the local people. The results of this survey can be summarized as follows: (1) Marriage Question -- the average age for first marriage is 22.54. The marriage rate is 5.3/1,000 for age 18, 35.5/1,000 for age 19, 54.2/1,000 for age 20, 171.9/1,000 for age 21, 393.5/1,000 for age 22, 717.8/1,000 for age 23, 886.3/1,000 for age 24, and 965.3/1,000 for age 25. (2) Birth Question -- average time between first marriage and first child is two years. Women between the ages of 25 and 29 average 2 children; women between the ages 20 and 24 average 1.3 children. Figures show that an unlimited population growth is already under restraint, and the fertility rate shows some obvious decline. (3) Ideological Question -- traditional beliefs favoring more children and favoring boys to girls are still strong in the minds of the people. In general, young males and females still contemplate an early marriage and wish to have two children. In order to correct the people's ideology and match it with national population policy, more work is needed in family planning.     

The family planning work in Yiyang prefecture as suggested by part of the data of the sample fertility survey]

The National Committee on Family Planning conducted a sample survey of fertility in the Yi-yang area in September 1982. The survey was focused on the marriage and fertility status of women between the ages of 15 and 67. Results from this survey show that early marriage is still very popular. Only 40% of those surveyed delayed their marriage to a later age. There is a need to educate the people on the benefits of late marriage. In addition, statistics show that the average fertility rate for a woman was 6.8 children in 1970 and 2.35 children in 1982. This recent figure is still too high when compared with the under 1.2 figure suggested by the central government. Among the total number surveyed, only 77% have taken birth control measures, and the other 23% still have not taken any birth control measures. The phenomenon shows that popular education on late marriage and having children at a later age is still urgently needed in order to further reduce the fertility rate. Married couples of childbearing age should be taught effective birth control measures and knowledge of eugenics with better education for the next generation. In this way, the masses may participate actively and positively in the national family planning campaign.     

独生子女比例、婚育意愿变动对未来政策生育率的影响

苏州市是我国计划生育政策执行得最早、最严格的地区之一,也是我国经济最为发达的地区之一.目前苏州市第一代独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄,使得政策生育率自然升高,同时经济的迅猛发展使得独生子女的婚姻观念发生深刻的变化.本文试探将婚育人口独生子女比例、婚育意愿等因素纳入预测模型,以期使得预测方法和结论更加准确.文章认为,未来15年苏州政策生育率上升0.415,而考虑婚育意愿后,现实的生育率上升仅0.23,终身生育率仍在1.5个以下,人口再生产将长期处于低生育水平.     

A preliminary analysis of negative population growth in Taicang County]

This report attempts to analyze the negative population growth and its significance in Tai-Cang County, China. Based on population data provided by local Tai-Cang authorities, family planning effectively lowered the birth rate from 11.9% between 1960-1969 to 3.0% between 1979-1983. The rate of single-child families grew enormously while the number of 2-child families reached a record low. Families with more than 2 children virtually vanished by 1983. Moreover, while a younger marriage age in 1981 and 1982 contributed to a slight increase in the birth rate, new marriage laws in 1983 caused an older marriage age and acted to lower the birth rate due to the fact that mothers were bearing children at an older age. A change in population components also influenced this low birth rate: the county population below the age of 14 is 21.2% compared with 33.6% nationally; however, the percentage of the population in this county over the age of 65 is 8.5% while the national figure is 4.9%. Finally, the marriagable population of females (i.e., 23 years old) was slightly lower between 1982-1984 due to the low birth rate seen from 1959-1961. The findings indicate that family planning is effective in lowering birth rates along with late marriages and older childbearing ages. The negative population growth in Tai-Cang County, however, is a temporary phenomenon. The indications are that the problems and shortcomings of family planning must be overcome, regional population planning must be improved, and the study of eugenics and optimum population reinforced. The report also notes that the population trend is toward aging.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

The marriage of mentally handicapped people and family planning services for them in Shanghai

This brief article discusses findings from a study by the Shanghai Population Information Center on marriage, fertility, and family planning among mentally handicapped adults in Shanghai, China, and population dynamics. The sample included 184 mentally handicapped persons aged 20-49 years (79 men and 116 women). 47 people had mild, 92 had moderate, and 45 had severe mental deficiencies. The mean age was 33 years. About 29% were married or ever married. 49 were married or ever married women. 6 spouses were mentally deficient. About 70% of the married or ever married had children. 43 had ever used contraception. The most commonly used method was the IUD. Several people had the approval of family members and were sterilized. Only 3 women were prevented from use of contraceptive services by family. 38% of the unmarried women's parents or relatives wanted their mentally deficient family members to be married before old age. 48% discouraged marriage because of the mental deficiency.     

The achievements in family planning work in Rudong County as suggested by the data of the Fertility Survey]

A 15% random sampling from Rudong County was recently taken to survey fertility rates. 1153 primary units were chosen, which included 160,832 people. Among this group were 57,050 women aged 15-67 years. Topics surveyed included: marriage, birth, contraception, and population structure. Rudong County, among the earliest counties in China to begin the work of birth control, started in the 1960s with birth control education. The natural rate of population increase by the early 1970s had already fallen. From 1974 to 1982 the average rate of natural population growth was 3.8/1000. Reproduction has gone from a rising trend to a stabilized trend. The base of the population structure pyramid has shrunk; the number of youths aged from birth to 14 years has fallen from 35.05% in 1964 to 21.77% in 1982. The number of people who must be supported (the old and the young) has decreased, lessening society's responsibility for them. 29.45% of the total population are over 65 years or under 14. Society's coefficient factor of support has fallen from 66.31% in 1964 to 41.75%. There is a decrease in the number of people marrying at a young age; the trend is toward marriage at a later age. The average age at marriage had risen from 23.81 years in 1980 to 23.89 years in 1981. The fertility rate has decreased, as has the number of offspring per woman. 1 child family is on the rise and multiple children family is on the decline. In 1981 the 1 child rate reached 92.98%, the 2 children rate was 6.63% and the multiple children rate was 0.49%. Prior to 1979 the 1 child rate was under 10%. The fertility rate fell from 136/1000 in the 1960s to 41.5/1000 in 1981.     

A preliminary survey of specialized households with single children in Tianjin rural areas

A preliminary survey of specialized households with single children in Tianjian rural areas was carried out in order to understand the impact of the economic system reform on family planning programs. Out of 180,000 specialized households, 37,000 are those of young peasants under 35, accounting for 24% of the total specialized households. The survey showed that family planning publicity could be improved in 4 ways. A change in the peasants' concept of childbearing in favor of family planning should be actively promoted. Publicity efforts should be strengthened. Both the content and methods of family planning education and publicity should be improved. Publicity should be integrated with service. Centers of publicity and guidance should become centers of publicity and service. Family planning workers should become close friends of young couples of reproductive age. Education must be integrated with service. A recent trend of having fewer children has set in. This change manifests itself in 3 ways: the state policy of making the people rich greatly encourages young couples to devote themselves to pioneering causes; after becoming rich, the peasants become aware that they should have healthier and better educated children; when the peasants become rich they worry less about their old age and other problems. The recent trend toward early marriage in rural areas should be curbed.     

Adolescent sexuality in Asia: new focus for population policy

As the age at marriage continues to rise in East and Southeast Asia, the fertility behavior of unmarried teenagers is receiving more attention from population policymakers. In addition to fertility reduction through family planning, Asian societies today consider population planning strategies in relation to national needs and social goals, including such matters as the population's growth rate, age structure, educational quality and skills. The number of single youth in Asia is growing much more rapidly than the total youth population. By the year 2010, for example, India is projected to have nearly 70 million single teenagers, aged 15-19, 188% more than in 1980. In many developing countries today, such as the Philippines and Korea, the rising age at marriage has combined with rapid urbanization, improved status for women, and more educational opportunity to alter both the behavioral norms of young people and the traditional means of social control over youth. Studies of contemporary adolescent sexuality have been conducted in 4 Asian countries. In the Philippines an overt independent youth homosexual culture was found to exist in urban and to some extent rural areas. In Thailand research revealed little conservative resistance to family planning or to contraceptives for young unmarried people. Surveys in Taiwan indicate that behavior related to dating and choice of spouse has become more liberal, and a survey in Hong Kong revealed a higher level of premarital sex and use of prostitutes among Chinese men than expected. Population policy perspectives that need to be considered in these changing times include: 1) issues of access to family planning services by unmarried people below the legal age of maturity; 2) the development of social institutions, such as exist in Thailand and the Philippines, to guide adolescents' behavior; 3) more extensive study of adolescent sexuality; 4) establishment of the scope of family policy.     

Does family planning work in a Chinese way

The demographic and economic characteristics of China make it necessary to do family planning work in China in a Chinese way. Special characteristics of China and corresponding strategies are detailed 1) China is rather underproductive and underdeveloped, with a huge population, whose growth must be curtailed while industrial and agricultural production is enhanced. 2) In the next 10 years, a large number of young people will center childbearing age, prompting a government policy favoring late marriage and one child per couple. 3) China is large and heterogeneous, and regional authorities should have some population policymaking functions to take sociocultural differences into account. 4) Male child preference ideology in rural areas has been gently combated with a resulting increase in family planning rate from 65.1% to 74.2% from 1979 to 1983. Family planning authorities have made considerable progress, as demonstrated by figures such as a drop of women's total fertility rate from 5.68 in the 60s to 2.07 in the 70s. The task at hand remains large: the population at the end of 1983 was 1,024,950,000. However, family planning is an element of state policy, the marriage law, and the constitution, and mored an more, societal ideology. Government policy equates family planning with child wellness and societal welfare and attempts supportiveness of couples showing positive birth limiting attitudes. An ample system of family planning programs and resource persons furnishes education, a variety of high quality methods are available, and contraceptive research is some of the best in the world.     

Birth limitation, late marriage and decline in the natural increase rate of the population]

Birth limitation and late marriage are two major factors which contribute to the reduction of population growth rate. These two factors should be used as the fundamental method for effectively controlling China's population growth. Facts have proved that birth limitation and late marriage are complimentary to each other and should match each other closely. Since late marriage cannot be delayed indefinitely, the average fertility rate for females under the age of 25 in their first marriage may still reach 5-6 children, provided that birth control measures are not taken. Because of this situation, at the same time that late marriage is encouraged, birth control should also be promoted positively. All married couples should be advised to have only one child. In order to ensure the everlasting practice of these two methods, certain policies concerning family planning and birth control should be formulated according to China's current economic situation. These policies include enforcement of an ideological education and social insurance practice in order to solve the problem of the high population growth rate in the countryside and effectively reach the goal of controlling China's population growth.     

Does It Matter What She Wants? The Role of Individual Preferences Against Unmarried Motherhood in Young Women’s Likelihood of a Nonmarital First Birth

Most young people in the United States express the desire to marry. Norms at all socioeconomic levels posit marriage as the optimal context for childbearing. At the same time, nonmarital fertility accounts for approximately 40 % of U.S. births, experienced disproportionately by women with educational attainment less than a bachelor’s degree. Research has shown that women’s intentions for the number and timing of children and couples’ intent to marry are strong predictors of realized fertility and marriage. The present study investigates whether U.S. young women’s preferences about nonmarital fertility, as stated before childbearing begins, predict their likelihood of having a nonmarital first birth. I track marriage and fertility histories through ages 24–30 of women asked at ages 11–16 whether they would consider unmarried childbearing. One-quarter of women who responded “no” in fact had a nonmarital birth by age 24–30. The ability of women and their partners to access material resources in adulthood were, as expected, the strongest predictors of the likelihood of nonmarital childbearing. Nonetheless, I find that women who said they would not consider nonmarital childbearing had substantially higher hazards of fertility postponement and especially of marital fertility, even after controlling for race/ethnicity, mother’s educational attainment, family of origin intactness, self-efficacy and planning ability, perceived future prospects, and markers of own educational attainment and work experience into early adulthood.     

Population goal set for China's new five-year plan

China's 7th Five-Year Plan recommends that China's total mainland population be held within the limit of 1.113 billion, with an annual average natural growth rate of about 12.4/1000. As a large number of youths will reach marriage and childbearing age during the course of the 7th Five-Year Plan, the Plan affords a high priority to the family planning program and to the control of population growth. The plan proposes 5 policies and measures to realize its goal: continuous efforts need to be made to give family planning a high priority; late marriage, late childbearing, and the 1-child family should be advocated; ideological and political education should be strengthened; scientific and technological research devoted to family planning should be intensified; and family planning communication and service centers at the county level should be consolidated and strengthened, and the family planning program should be conducted systematically and be ongoing.     

Some problems found in a retrospective survey of fertility in Haidian district, Beijing]

The results of a fertility survey undertaken in the Haidian district of Beijing, China, in 1981 are presented. The data are from a random sample of 6.3 percent of the population at selected ages. The results show an increase in age at marriage, a decrease in the interval between marriage and first birth, and a decrease in the number of pregnancies associated with the family planning program.     

The family planning work as suggested by analysis of the age at first marriage in Jiaxing Prefecture, Zhejiang Province]

Since 1970 when the big push for family planning began, China advocated late marriages. In general, the age for late marriage for female peasants is 23 years and 25 for males; for urban females and males, it is 25 and 27 years, respectively. In 1981 the New Marriage Law stipulated the age at marriage to be 20 years for females and 22 for males (these ages are lower than the ages advocated for marriage in actual practice). Despite the New Marriage Law, however, there was in 1981 an increase in the number of people who married before attaining the "late marriage age," thereby creating problems in family planning work. Since 1981, early marriages have been an increasing phenomenon (for the purposes of this essay, age at early marriage is 23 years for females and 25 for males). Jiaxing Prefecture had a 460.53% increase from 1979 to 1981 in the number of women who married early. The following findings were based on studies of Tungxiang and Pinghu Countries. Early marriages as well as "regular" marriages have increased greatly, with early marriage exceeding the number of other marriages. Urban marriages are far more moderate in number than rural marriages, partly because family planning work in urban areas is more effective. Early marriage in areas where family planning work was effective is less extreme than in areas where family planning work was ineffective. Findings from Kayuan Commune of Tungxiang County shows that 47.8% of all male marriages in 1981 were early marriages, as opposed to 6.3% in 1980. The average age for men at marriage in 1981 was 1.6 years younger than in 1980, and .75 years younger for females. Undoubtedly the New Marriage Law influenced the trend in early marriages, but the main reason is that the agarian economy is backwards. Further, traditional attitudes (e.g., "the sooner the children come the sooner the riches come") prevail.     

An analysis of major proximate determinants of our fertility]

The sample survey of fertility, in Shanghai city and Shanxi and Hebei provinces of China in 1985, provided plentiful data about fertility, marriage, contraceptive usage and breastfeeding in terms of The World Fertility Survey Model. The data, along with Bongaarts' model, was utilized to analyze the relation between several proximate determinants and fertility changes. When comparing these three geographic areas, the largest difference was breastfeeding and the smallest one was non- contraceptive usage. It was very different from the results of The World Fertility Survey in developing countries in 1977. The difference of marriage indexes among three areas was close to that of breastfeeding; but for the effects on induction of fertility, marriage index surpassed breastfeeding. There were two models showing effective efficacy on fertility decline. One was the Shanghai model, in which much more effect came from marriage delay, accounting for 71%; another was the Hebei model, induction of fertility was caused by contraceptive usage, about 53%. Both indicated that the major factor affecting fertility decline was the family planning program. Otherwise, it seemed to indicate that different factors such as social, economic development indirectly decreased fertility through family planning programs.     

Publicity and education on family planning information in Keshan County

In 1984 the Keshan (Northeast China) County Government and the Family Planning Committee initiated an education campaign to disseminate family planning information to farmers. The team of propagandists consisted primarily of full-time family planning workers. Village cadres, school teachers, and rural physicians, who are properly educated and positive about family planning work, enjoy high prestige among the workers. They were invited to be team members after training and are supported by the villagers because they come from among the local people. All the childbearing women aged 15-49 in each village were classified by the propagandist into 5 groups according to their marital and childbearing status, i.e., women at the age of puberty, women of new marriage, pregnant and lying-in women, women with children to be reared, and middle-age and old women. The women were organized into groups to attend lectures on different subjects such as population policy, relationship between population growth and socioeconomic development on the 1 hand and individuals and environment on the other. Also included were physiology, the health birth and rearing of children, and health care for women and the aged. The publicity effort included broadcasting, films, video aids, and slide shows. Increased classs were during the slack seasons, and lectures were given once a week. By 1986, about 80% of the population at childbearing age in Keshan County had attended the family planning lectures.     

深圳流动育龄妇女生育子女数的影响因素分析

本文利用“深圳市龙岗区流动人口计划生育管理与服务状况”调查数据,设计了4个模型,分别从不同角度对生育子女数、初婚初育、初婚二孩生育和初婚三孩生育的影响因素进行了多因素分析。研究结果表明,早婚和多育之间有正相关关系,它和生育意愿有一定的关联。生育意愿对生育行为的影响是非线性的,它对三孩生育的影响最强。经济收入水平对生育行为的影响很复杂,收入水平提高产生的短期效果可能是促进生育率增长。     

Adolescent fertility: worldwide concerns

There is growing concern over the adverse health, social, economic, and demographic effects of adolescent fertility. Morbidity and mortality rates ar significantly higher for teenage mothers and their infants, and early initiation of childbearing generally means truncated education, lower future family income, and larger completed family size. Adolescent fertility rates, which largely reflect marriage patterns, range from 4/1000 in Mauritania; in sub-Saharan Africa, virtually all rates are over 100. In most countries, adolescent fertility rates are declining due to rising age at marriage, increased educational and economic opportunities for young women, changes in social customs, increased use of contraception, and access to abortion. However, even if fertility rates were to decline dramatically among adolescent women in developing countries, their sheer numbers imply that their fertility will have a major impact on world population growth in the years ahead. The number of women in the world ages 15-19 years is expected to increase from 245 million in 1985 to over 320 million in the years 2020; 82% of these women live in developing countries. As a result of more and earlier premarital sexual activity, fostered by the lengthening gap between puberty and marriage, diminished parental and social controls, and increasing peer and media pressure to be sexually active, abortion and out-of-wedlock childbearing are increasing among teenagers in many developed and rapidly urbanizing developing countries. Laws and policies regarding sex education in the schools and access to family planning services by adolescents can either inhibit or support efforts to reduce adolescent fertility. Since contraceptive use is often sporadic and ineffective among adolescents, family planning services are crucial. Such programs should aim to reduce adolescents' dependence on abortion through preventive measures and increase awareness of the benefits of delayed sexual activity. Similarly, sex education should seek to provide a basis for intelligent, informed decision making. Programs tailored to reach teenagers in schools, recreational centers, and the workplace have particular potential.