农村外出劳动力回流迁移的影响因素和回流效应

文章分析农村外出劳动力回流迁移的影响因素.农村外出劳动力在城市就业、经济收入和社会保障的排斥影响他们的回流,同时回流迁移也受到家庭生活、家庭劳动力状况、家庭农业活动和农地状况等因素的影响.外出劳动力的回流迁移是“被动回流”和“主动回流”相结合的过程、是个体决策和家庭决策的综合过程.文章提出劳动力回流迁移具有“回流效应”,回流带来人力资本的补偿、促进流出地非农经济的发展和带来创业的增长.劳动力回流作为城镇化过程中内生的逆迁移流,构成乡城迁移和劳动力市场平衡的补充机制,与乡城迁移一起促进城镇化和城乡平衡发展.文章提出在城镇化过程中需要支持“迁移效应”和“回流效应”机制共同发挥作用.     

三权改革背景下土地权益与农民永久性迁移分析——来自浙江4个县市4个行政村的实证

既有研究论证了农民的非永久迁移是户籍制度以及农村土地制度造成的不正常现象。但这是不是就意味着一旦这些制度被完善,这种非永久人口迁移就将被永久迁移取代?本文基于浙江省4个县市4个行政村的家庭普查数据,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归模型,探讨在户籍、土地"三权"改革制度背景下,农民永久性迁移意愿及土地权益对其的影响机制。研究结果表明农民对于举家永久性迁移定居城镇的总体意愿并不强烈,进城落户后普遍选择继续保留"三权"。进一步探究具体的土地权益因素影响及机制发现:三权制度改革对农民的永久性迁移意愿产生显著影响;现阶段土地禀赋对农民进城落户意愿具有负向影响;土地流转不直接导致农民的永久性迁移,但其可以通过部分禀赋因素的改变(如家庭非农业就业人口)解决农地流转中农民永久性迁移的困境。控制因素中,家庭中成员外出就业情况、是否已在城镇购房或建房等指标对农民永久性迁移意愿产生显著影响。因此,为了进一步有序促进农民的永久性迁移,推动新型城镇化的发展,应加快推进"三权到人(户)、权跟人(户)走"改革,加大政策改革的宣传力度,完善农村土地经营权流转政策,关注农民理性决策中预期的风险成本收益,如土地权益、流入地的居住成本等,要解决农民想进来、进得来的问题,更要关注农民住得下、留得下的问题。     

“双重迁移”女性的就业决策和工资收入的影响因素分析——基于北京市农民工的调查

农民工的家庭化迁移是中国城市化发展的重要趋势。家庭化迁移和城乡迁移同时发生的"双重迁移"对农民工家庭造成了重大的影响,特别是对于家庭中的女性"双重迁移"引发不同以往的就业决策,并改变了农民工家庭的生活状态。文章在新家庭经济学的分析框架下,实证分析"双重迁移"中各类因素对女性就业选择和工资的影响。结果发现,家庭化迁移会减少女性居家就业和外出就业概率,降低女性就业水平。分析表明学前教育、技能培训等公共服务的可获得性能够提高流动妇女的劳动参与率,而在职培训和教育水平在提高女性农民工收入方面发挥了重要作用。     

阶层分化与农民乡城永久迁移--基于CGSS 2010数据分析

CGSS 2010的数据分析发现,只有不到1/10的农民已经实现乡城永久迁移,接近1/10的农民有乡城永久迁移意愿.阶层分化对农民乡城永久迁移具有重要影响:白领阶层农民已经永久迁移和有永久迁移意愿的比率均最高,蓝领阶层和无业、失业、半失业者阶层次之,农业劳动者阶层最低;主观阶层、阶层流动预期对农民乡城永久迁移意愿具有正向影响,主观阶层等级越高,阶层流动预期越好的农民永久迁移意愿越高.新型城镇化的制度设计应改善蓝领阶层的生存环境、加大农民的职业技能培训、拓宽农民进入白领阶层的渠道,以推进农民的城镇化进程.     

中国流动人口家庭化迁移对居留意愿的影响——基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析

在流动人口家庭化迁移背景下，准确理解当前流动人口家庭化迁移内在逻辑，对于改善流动人口市民化相关政策和推动高质量城镇化发展具有重要作用。流动人口家庭化迁移表现为流动人口及其家属迁移，不同家属之间迁移存在一定的关联逻辑，并对流动人口在城市的居留意愿产生深远影响。为此，基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据，采用倾向得分匹配模型进行了实证分析。研究发现，从单个家属迁移来看，农业户籍家庭配偶迁移显著降低了农民工居留城市的意愿，子女和父母则体现为正向作用；非农业户籍家庭配偶迁移也对其居留意愿造成了负面影响，而子女和父母迁移则不具有显著影响。从双重家属迁移来看，配偶兼具外出工作和家庭照料双重角色，使得配偶迁移在家庭化迁移中具有“牵一发而动全身”的重要作用。配偶迁移对其他家属迁移造成了显著影响，这种作用在不同户籍家庭之间存在明显不同。从多重家属迁移来看，在双重迁移的基础上的父母迁移有效促进了其居留意愿，而配偶迁移则降低了其居留意愿。因此，为推进中国流动人口市民化，需要在尊重流动人口家庭化迁移逻辑的基础上，进一步出台更为精准的家庭迁移政策，才能更好地有序促进流动人口在城市安居。     

农村劳动力迁移与土地流转动态不一致分析——基于河南省进城务工农村劳动力的调查

中国农村劳动力迁移与土地流转动态不一致已经成为农业现代化和城市化发展的瓶颈。本文首先对劳动力迁移与土地流转行为进行分类,分析二者动态不一致及趋于同步的影响因素,得出土地自用机会成本、劳动力城市永久收入和城市生活成本是决定因素。然后提出建立土地周期动态流转机制、信息化阶梯式培训机制和产业向中小城镇转移作为解决问题的途径。再依据河南省进城务工农村劳动力的调查数据进行实证分析,对理论分析的结果进行验证。最后提出政策建议。     

中国农村女性劳动力迁移的实证分析

本文利用中国健康与营养状况调查数据,通过统计描述与计量模型分析了农村女性劳动力迁移的影响因素。结果表明,农村女性劳动力在由农村向城市迁移的过程中明显受到来自家庭和性别因素的制约,在是否获取迁移机会中存在着性别差异,其根源在于女性自身的特点及其家庭、社会地位。     

非农劳动力迁移特征与影响因素分析——基于重庆的实证研究

我国的劳动力迁移问题一直是宏观经济中的一个重要问题。由于二元经济结构是中国不可回避的国情,对于农业劳动力向非农业转移的研究较多。但随着经济体制改革和市场化的进一步发展,非农业劳动力在空间上的迁移也越来越普遍。文章通过对2005年全国1%人口抽样调查中重庆市的抽样调查数据进行统计分析,描述了非农劳动力迁移的人口特征,同时基于LOGISTIC回归方程方法,研究了非农业劳动力迁移的影响因素。结果表明非农劳动力的年龄、性别、受教育程度和单位性质对迁移意愿都有显著的影响,并且与农业劳动力的迁移影响因素存在差异。     

养老保障对返乡中老年群体再次外出就业的影响

在影响返乡中老年群体再次外出就业的相关因素中,养老保障尤其值得重视。返乡农民工再次外出就业说明农村老年人口经济收入相对不足,希望通过外出就业获得部分收入的补偿,这也表明存在中老年在农村人口因养老保障不足而被迫继续外出就业的可能性。文章构建两期生命周期模型,对返乡中老年群体的养老保险参与情况影响其再次外出就业的作用机制进行理论分析,并利用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据进行实证检验。研究发现：（1）返乡中老年群体参加养老保险显著减少其再次外出就业;（2）不同类型养老保险对返乡中老年群体的外出就业存在差异性影响,返乡农民工如果获得职工基本养老保险,具有更明显的收入效应,减少他们的再次外出就业,而城乡居民养老保险的保障力度相对薄弱,还不足以改变返乡中老年群体的劳动供给行为;（3）具有养老保险对农村中老年群体劳动参与的影响存在外溢效应,养老保险降低再次外出就业,并通过增加他们的家庭劳务和隔代抚育的时间,增加其成年子女的外出就业和进城迁移。研究提出,加强农村养老保障体系建设对提高农民工和返乡农民工的生活福祉,减少城乡社会保障不平等,促进乡村振兴和城乡整体发展具有作用,对我国的劳动力市场建设也具有一定积...     

农村劳动力迁移问题的政策思考--基于迁移者角色的定位研究

本文就劳动力迁移理论提出了一种新的研究方法劳动力迁移者的角色定位.文章分别把迁移者定位于劳动力的供给者、人力资本的投资者、地区商品的消费者和家庭的生产者.文章在每一部分,首先介绍了各角色定位的模型,然后通过分析找出目前中国可能影响劳动力迁移的因素,并在此基础上,提出政策建议.文章结论是,城乡分割的户籍制度是阻碍劳动力迁移的根本原因,在逐步放松户籍管理制度的同时,给农民工以国民待遇是我们制定所有政策的根本.     

基于职业性别隔离的女性就业创业问题研究--以成都市为例

女性就业是女性发展的基本内容,是女性获得经济独立并赢得社会性别平等的重要渠道。城镇居民就业普遍存在职业性别隔离且在水平与垂直方向均有所表现,女性职业（行业）普遍收入偏低,大量女性沉淀在职级较低岗位。文章以第六次人口普查数据为基础,统计了成都市30个服务行业与30个制造行业女性劳动力占所在行业的比例和女性就业结构构成,结合成都市人力资源市场岗位供给与求职需求分析,提出女性就业创业引导方向。     

工作转换对农民工职业流动的影响效应

农民工就业流动频繁已经成为当前劳动力市场的普遍现象和重要特征,而工作转换能否带来农民工职业向上流动,实现职业地位提升？文章采用RUMIC面板数据,进一步估计工作转换对农民工职业流动方向的影响。结果发现：工作转换对职业流动产生显著负效应,工作转换导致农民工职业向下流动,职业流动没有呈现“U”型特征,但存在一定的跨期效应,重新定义工作转换进行稳健性检验仍然支持这一结论。而从根本上消除劳动力市场的制度壁垒,强化农民工职业技能培训,无疑是未来劳动力市场政策调整的主要方向。     

Fertility Decline and Increased Manifestation of Sex Bias in India

This paper argues that expectations - the process of evaluating the chances for future attainment of valued goals in the home community (stay decision) vs. alternative locations (move decision) - along with family norms about migration are major predictors of intention to move, which in turn is a proximate determinant of migration behaviour. Utilizing longitudinal data from the 1992 and 1994 waves of the Thailand National Migration Survey, logistic regression models show that a strikingly different set of expectations, household demographic indicators, and migrant capital factors were significant determinants of migration intentions for men and women; reflecting Thai gender roles. Migration intentions, in turn, predicted more permanent, but not temporary, survival strategy migration behaviour, while low household income predicted temporary but not more permanent migration behaviour. The measure of perceived family migration norms was a powerful determinant of migration behaviour, but the size of migrant networks was not a statistically significant determinant of either migration intentions or behaviour.     

Ethnic Business in der Leiharbeit – Einblicke in einen wenig bekannten Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland

Since the Agenda 2010 temporary work is even economically and politically a success story in Germany. Inside that branch you also find Ethnic Business, id est that the director of the conferrer and the employees are belonging to the same ethnic group. The recruiting strategies are most informal within the ethnic group and working for an “ethnic conferrer” oftentimes means the last chance for migrants who get no other job on the formal job market. But the temporary work-business in Germany has a bad reputation and a lot of questions are going along with Ethnic Business in that particular branch: What are the migrant’s motives for working to an ethnic conferrer? What are the attractive aspects of founding an ethnic model of temporary employment agency? Have ethnic conferrers the ability to create new stability for the migrants inside a highly unstable branch?     

维吾尔族农民工创业意愿影响因素调查

论文通过问卷调查与深入访谈等方式调研155个来自新疆南北疆不同区域的维吾尔农民工创业意愿的主要影响因素,研究结果表明,维吾尔族农民工创业的意愿受到其年龄、婚姻状况、风险偏好度、职业培训状况、汉语交流能力、文化水平、家庭人口数量、家庭收入和政府政策等多种因素的影响。其中,婚姻状况、职业培训、文化程度、语言交流、家庭收入和政府政策与维吾尔族农民工创业意愿成正相关。风险偏好与家庭收入与维吾尔族农民工创业意愿成负相关。     

Measuring Precarious Employment: A Proposal for Two Indicators of Precarious Employment Based on Set-Theory and Tested with Dutch Labor Market-Data

Scholars claim that precarious employment is rising. The precariously employed earn low wages, have little job- and income security and occupy jobs that can generally be deemed low quality. These employees are at a disproportionally high risk of poverty and are at risk of detrimental psychological effects. Despite the salience of the issue, precarious employment remains an elusive concept and has proven difficult to measure directly. Instead, measurement tends to rely on non-integrated indicators and proxies, thus introducing significant issues concerning the validity of found results. This paper proposes two integrated indicators for specific aspects of precarious employment. Indicator 1 focuses on income insecurity and is constructed using wage, supplementary income and unemployment benefit entitlements. Indicator 2 focuses on job insecurity and is constructed using contract type and unemployment duration. Additionally, to check for the coexistence of job- and income insecurity at the individual level and give a more holistic picture of precarious employment, Indicators 1 and 2 are integrated. First, previous research on precarious employment and job insecurity is reviewed to bolster the indicators’ validity. Second, the indicators are constructed using an approach grounded in crisp-set theory and data from the Dutch “Organisatie Strategisch Arbeidsmartkonderzoek” labor supply panel. Finally, the indicators are tested by assessing precarious employment over time, by educational level, sector and immigrant status.     

农村劳动力转移就业的空间决策及其个体属性影响——以安徽省四个样本村为例

农村劳动力转移就业空间决策是农村劳动力在特定目标指引下,通过具体就业途径和就业方式,进行就业地决策的过程。通过SPSS17．0的频率分析、聚类分析、交叉分析等方法,以安徽省四个样本村为例,探讨了农村劳动力在转移就业目标决策、就业途径决策、就业方式决策和就业地决策等方面的基本特征．分析了个体属性差异对转移就业空间决策的影响。研究结果表明,除外部环境外,个体属性因素深刻地影响农村劳动力转移就业空间决策,而提高人力资源,消除阻碍转移的户籍、社会保障、定居等障碍因素是提高劳动力就业质量的重要方面。     

Why do English-speaking countries have relatively high fertility?

In broad terms, the division in Europe between countries with very low fertility and countries with sustainable fertility matches Esping-Anderson’s classification of the same countries into ‘conservative’ and ‘social democratic’ (Esping-Anderson 1990). A central difference between these two types relates to their preferred models of the family. The conservative countries hold more to the ‘breadwinner’ model of the family while the social democratic countries seek higher levels of gender equity within the family and in the workplace. State support in both conservative and social democratic countries is designed to be consistent with these differing views of the family. Would we then not expect fertility to be very low in Esping-Anderson’s third group of countries, the ‘liberal’ countries, essentially English-speaking countries? By the Esping-Anderson definition, liberal countries are notable for their lack of support for families from public sources. Instead, according to Esping-Anderson, families must rely upon market provision for the services that they may need to combine work and family and they must rely on market employment to generate the income required to support their children. Contrary to this theory, whether measured by contemporary cross-sectional fertility or completed cohort fertility, with the exception of Canada, English-speaking countries now have the highest fertility rates among the countries that were classified by Esping-Anderson. Given the strength of theoretical explanation that arises from comparative studies of fertility in Europe, the paper examines why fertility in English-speaking countries seems not to follow expectation.     

Do Preferences for Job Attributes Provide Evidence of ‘Hierarchy of Needs’?

We examine whether employees’ preferences for various job attributes are associated with their individual characteristics in ways that are in line with ‘hierarchy of needs’ theories. Using data from the fifth round of the European Social Survey, we observe the influence of socio-demographic and dispositional characteristics as well as socialization experiences on opinions regarding the importance of five different desirable job attributes. An item-by-item examination of the attributes (including ‘security’ and ‘offering a high income’) reveals that dispositional factors (measured using the battery of items in Schwartz’s theory of basic personal values) influence job attitudes in expected ways, but employees also tend to place more importance on attributes that concern them more directly. For example, while female employees care more about being able to combine work and family responsibilities, younger workers value training opportunities more highly than older ones. Regarding socialization experiences, we find that job security is more important for those who have been unemployed in the past. We interpret our findings to mean that ‘hierarchy of needs’ theories are valid in the context of job attitudes in the sense that the ranking of preferred job attributes is quite predictable once individual characteristics are accounted for.     

Women’s Job Quality Across Family Life Stages: An Analysis of Female Employees Across 27 European Countries

There is little empirical evidence on how working conditions affect women’s employment and fertility choices, despite a number of studies on the impact of individual-level and institutional factors. The article addresses this gap by examining how family life stages are related to particular aspects of job quality among employed women in 27 European countries. The central argument of the analysis is that high-quality jobs are conducive to both transitions to motherhood and employment after childbirth as women select into these roles. Accordingly, mothers of young children, if employed, are expected to have relatively better quality jobs. Four dimensions of job quality are considered: job security, career progression, working time and intrinsic job quality. The results indicate that mothers with young children are more likely to hold high-quality jobs than women at other life stages with respect to working time quality and job security, but with some variation across countries for job security. The findings highlight the importance of high-quality jobs for women’s fertility decisions and labour market attachment after childbirth, with implications for European employment policy.