城城流动人口教育回报率研究北大核心CSSCI

获得更高的教育回报是人口流动的重要原因。近年来城城流动人口规模不断扩大,平均受教育水平相对较高,在向较大规模城市流动过程中实现了个体收益的增长。本文利用2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据分析教育对城城流动人口收入增长的影响,探讨其城市异质性和区域异质性以及2013-2018年教育回报率的时序变动。研究结果表明:第一,教育对流动人口收入增长具有显著正向影响,无论是只包含明瑟方程核心变量,还是引入不同特征的控制变量,个体的教育回报率均是显著正向的;第二,特大及以上规模城市中教育对城城流动人口收入增长影响显著高于其他城市;第三,2013-2017年城城流动人口教育回报率呈上升态势,2018年略有下降;第四,城市规模越大,个体受教育水平的提升越会增加流动人口进入具有较高门槛且工资相对高的职业的概率,同时也更倾向于选择成为雇员获得更高的工资收入。基于此,文章认为要尽快消除限制大城市发展和现代化都市圈建设的障碍,加快推动户籍制度改革和土地要素市场化改革,实现人口等要素合理流动和高效配置。     

劳动力就业城市选择对城市工资溢价的影响

中国逐步从定居社会转变为流迁社会,劳动力大范围流动体现在就业城市的自主选择上,该行为对城市工资溢价产生持续影响,同时城市工资溢价又影响劳动力的就业城市选择。利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,构建包含个体选择的处置效应模型,实证分析发现,中国存在城市工资溢价现象,劳动力的异质性特征和城市差异性特征显著影响就业城市选择行为;纠正劳动力城市选择的内生二元选择偏差后,发现中国特大城市和超大城市的工资溢价变大,而大城市的工资溢价消失,中小城市工资比大城市更有竞争力。中国城市体系中的首尾优势是劳动力理性选择就业城市的结果,这为中国实施差异化的城市发展政策来实现城市体系的整体优化和内部协调提供了新思路。     

人才政策对人才跨区域流动的影响——以长三角城市群为例

人才是各地推动区域经济发展、提升综合竞争力的重要支撑，各地政府试图通过制定各种形式的人才政策吸引并留住人才。不过，关于人才政策实际效能的研究较为匮乏。文章利用“58同城”的个人简历数据，以2010～2019年长三角城市群26个城市的人才流动为案例，分析了长三角城市群人才流动的网络结构和空间格局，着重探讨人才政策对人才跨区域流动的影响，以及在不同经济发展水平和收入水平下人才政策的边际效应。研究结果表明：（1）长三角城市群城际人才流动十分频繁，经济基础较好、工资收入高、产业结构和市场环境较好的城市是人才流动的辐射聚合高地；（2）长三角城市群的人才流动围绕上海、南京、苏州、杭州、合肥形成“Z”字形的空间格局，人才流向由大城市间流动演变为大城市间流动和邻近城市间流动并重的局面；（3）人才政策能够很好地吸引人才流入本地，但只有当区域经济发展水平和收入水平较高时，人才政策才会发挥作用。当经济发展水平和收入水平较低时，人才政策对人才流入影响不显著。文章据此提出了政策建议，为相关政府部门决策提供参考。     

地方品质与经济机会对劳动力流动的影响 ——基于CLDS 2016的实证分析

基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据,采用条件logit模型实证考察了决定中国城际劳动力区位选择的区域和个人因素。旨在评估流动劳动力选择目的地时地方品质、就业机会和经济结构的相对权重,以及这些地方因素在不同类型的劳动力中的作用程度。结果表明:(1)地方品质对吸引迁移人口流入有显著的正向促进作用且大于就业机会带来的效应,迁移人口会倾向于流向地方品质更好的城市。(2)通过对比地方品质和工资水平对流动人口流向选择概率的影响可以计算得到流动人口对于地方品质水平提升1个单位的支付意愿约为9.70元。(3)从异质性检验结果来看,个人消费服务、地区基础结构和公共服务对本地吸引人才流入的能力均表现出显著的带动性;年轻一代和室内工作的劳动力群体更加注重环境因素的考量,对城市品质提出了更高的要求。相比于地方品质,高教育水平劳动者受到高工资水平的调节作用更大。来自城镇的劳动者更加重视地方品质建设对自身带来的影响,而来自农村的劳动者更加注重工资报酬所带来的经济效用;流入内陆、淮北地区、特大、超大和高收入阶段的城市吸引劳动力受城市地方品质的影响效果更显著;流入内陆、淮南地区、大中小和中等收入偏上/偏下城市吸引劳动力受工资水平的影响更显著。     

发达国家城市人口规模和人口流动模式的转变

<正> 本世纪中叶以前,人们普遍认为:在人口城市化过程中,人口流动的模式是:农村→小城镇→中等城市→大城市,并且这种模式至今仍为世界人口流动的主要趋势。然而,从本世纪六十年代开始,率先步入人口城市化的若干发达国家其人口流动模式发生了令人瞩目的转变:特大或大城市→中等城市→小城镇→农村,城市人口规模构成也发生相应变动。不少发达国家是经历了大城市“膨胀病”的阵痛,为其消极的社会经济后果付出巨大代价后才转入这一模式的。值得研究的是,这一转变是否标志着人口城市化进入了新阶段?其动因是什么?本文略述浅见。     

流动人口户籍迁移意愿的分层模型研究

将2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和城市特征数据进行匹配,使用非线性分层模型分析了流动人口户籍迁移意愿的影响因素。结果表明,流动人口的个人基本特征、经济状况、流动特征对户籍迁移意愿存在单独的影响,流入城市特征不存在对流动人口户籍迁移意愿的直接影响,但通过流动人口个人层面特征跨层交互作用于流动人口的户籍迁移意愿。有子女随迁和在流入地居留时间越长的流动人口户籍迁移意愿越强,流入地的教育公共服务质量越好越会强化这种倾向;已在流入地购房、受教育程度越高、女性流动人口的户籍迁移意愿更高,流入地的人口规模越大越会加强这种作用。     

论城市的功能、发展动力与人口城市化的现实选择——城市规模经济聚集效益及其实现长期增长的条件

<正> 人口城市化同工业化现代化创造出的其他产物一样,有其多面性:社会发展的必然、与传统相冲突、产生新的问题、面临新的选择。人口城市化往往被描述成一个大量农民背井离乡流入城市,城市的失业率、犯罪率上升,交通拥挤、环境污染,人口过度集中而又不可遏止的痛苦的必然性。然而城市化在人为的限制下至今仍在进行;多数人还是向往生活在城市,而且更倾向于大城市;工厂、企业还是倾向于选址在城市,而且更倾向于企业密集的城市。这使我们不得不透过人口统计中表面上惊人的人口城市化速度而从现代城市的功能和在现代化中的作用去探     

东部不同规模城市流动人口的主观幸福感及其影响因素

基于2012年东部十省市流动人口动态监测调查数据,文章采用序次 Logistic 回归模型,对比分析了东部不同规模城市流动人口的主观幸福感及其影响因素。研究发现：东部不同规模城市流动人口的主观幸福感有着较为明显的地区差异,流动人口主观幸福感与城市规模之间存在倒 U 型关系。影响不同规模城市流动人口主观幸福感的因素不尽相同,但总体而言,影响超大城市流动人口主观幸福感的因素远远多于Ⅰ型小城市,住房性质成为经济因素中影响不同规模城市流动人口主观幸福感最为突出且普遍的因素,而社会因素对于不同规模城市流动人口主观幸福感的影响作用要大于经济因素。最后,提供了相关政策启示。     

中国城市青年的住房来源及其影响因素——基于独生属性和流动特征的实证分析

住房是实现青年安居乐业的重要条件之一。本文从社会分层理论出发,基于2009年中国城市青年状况调查数据,利用方差分析和无序多分类Logistic回归模型,着重从独生子女属性、流动特征和婚育状态等多角度实证分析城市青年的住房来源及其影响因素。研究发现城市独生子女更可能购买住房,但需要父母的帮助;流动状态会降低青年购买住房的可能性,增加租房居住的概率。结婚和生育是影响青年住房来源的重要生命事件:初婚会显著提高其购买住房的可能性;生育对于非独生子女购买住房比例增加也有作用。家庭特征和个人特征均会对青年的住房来源产生影响。解决青年的住房问题有助于降低社会分化,促进社会稳定。     

基于城市功能定位的人口规模调控方式新探

我国现有的人口调控方式目前,针对许多城市出现的城市规模膨胀、人口畸形集中、贫富差距扩大、环境污染加剧、交通拥堵严重等城市病,包括政府在内的社会各方都将其归因于人多,从而在实践中产生了直接的行政限制和间接的经济疏导两种人口调控方式。直接的行政限制方式主要是通过设置门槛控制流动人口进入,通常采用与福利保障相捆绑的户籍制度来达到控制大城市人口增长的目的。我国过去很长一段时期甚至直到现在,很多城市仍采用这种方式限制人口流入。     

成渝都市群城市体系规模分布的实证研究

本文依据分形理论,采用1990—2008年成渝都市群各等级城市非农业人口时间序列样本数据,研究了成渝都市群城市体系规模分布的分形特征。经验分析表明,成渝都市群城市体系规模分布基本满足城市＂位序—规模＂分布规律并具有分形特征,首位城市垄断地位不强,特大城市断层,大城市数量不足,中小城市发育程度较高。最后,本文据此提出了发展和完善成渝都市群城市体系的对策。     

International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013

Evidence on the demographic components of city growth in the global South is scarce, and the role played by international migration is neglected. We analyze the importance of recent international migration in cities, compare it with that of internal movements, and evaluate the growth contribution across national contexts and the urban hierarchy. Combining individual-level census data and geographic master files of metropolitan areas with indirect demographic estimation techniques, we cover 377 cities in seven countries. It is found that, in almost one third of cities, population change and replacement has been mainly determined by migration. The international component was larger than the internal one in more than half of cities. Whereas internal migration tends to decrease with rising city size, international movements tend to increase. Positive net international migration substitutes for the net losses from domestic movements in large cities, but complements the gains in intermediate-sized cities.     

A study of urban population migration and urbanization in China]

Under the auspices of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and UN funding, a study was undertaken to assess Chinese urban migration and urbanization. A 2% random sample was taken of 74 cities of varying densities (divided into 5 categories ranging from "especially large city" to "town") from 16 provinces. This encompassed 23,895 households, 1,643 collectives and 100,167 people. Major data include: 38% of the subjects had migrated at least once; 7.58% lived away from home for at least 1 year; 23.98% were temporarily away from home at the time of the study; 3.6% were at home. With the exception of the "especially large city," which absorbed 46.5% of urban migrants, more migrants entered "towns" than they did "large city." Migration to the "especially large city" fell from 56.6% in the 1950s to 32.5% between 1981-86, whereas migration into the other categories increased. For example, population movement into towns jumped from 12.3% in the 1950s to 28.6% in 1981-86. In all 5 categories, intra-province migration was larger than inter-province migration. Over half of the urban migrants moved from villages to towns. More men migrated to cities than women, but slightly more women than men migrated from villages to cities (due to marriage customs). 56.6% of migrants were between 15-30 years; 23.34% were workers; 21.54% were farmers. Reasons given for moving were many, but the most often cited was work related. Work related moves often meant that such migration was dictated, rather than voluntary. Also, social, economic and political upheavals directly affected the pattern of urban migration from 1949-86. Current government policy is to develop smaller cities and to limit the growth of already densely populated areas. Until cities can provide adequate housing, food and jobs for its inhabitants, governmental intervention in some areas will continue to be necessary.     

Networks Versus Need: Drivers of Urban Out-Migration in the Brazilian Amazon

As urbanization rates rise globally, it becomes increasingly important to understand the factors associated with urban out-migration. In this paper, we examine the drivers of urban out-migration among young adults in two medium-sized cities in the Brazilian Amazon—Altamira and Santarém—focusing on the roles of social capital, human capital, and socioeconomic deprivation. Using household survey data from 1,293 individuals in the two cities, we employ an event history model to assess factors associated with migration and a binary logit model to understand factors associated with remitting behavior. We find that in Altamira, migration tends to be an individual-level opportunistic strategy fostered by extra-local family networks, while in Santarém, migration tends to be a household-level strategy driven by socioeconomic deprivation and accompanied by remittances. These results indicate that urban out-migration in Brazil is a diverse social process, and that the relative roles of extra-local networks versus economic need can function quite differently between geographically proximate but historically and socioeconomically distinct cities.     

进城还是回村？——跨省婚迁者的空间选择

在经济社会转型、人口频繁流动的条件下,婚迁由乡到城的单向迁移转变成为城乡互动的双向流动。婚迁者留在城市还是回到乡村,要取决于多种条件。本研究通过测度跨省婚迁的性别比发现,自1990年来的20年间我国省际婚迁性别比下降近一半。全国省际婚迁性别比呈现城市-城镇-乡村两端大中间小的“微笑曲线”。在婚迁的空间选择上,男性以城市为主,女性则以乡村为主。进一步分析影响婚姻迁移的因素发现,经济变量中人均GDP对总婚迁和城市婚迁呈正向影响,城镇和乡村呈负向影响;居民收入和消费状况对婚姻迁移产生正向影响,但消费的城乡差别则对其产生负向影响;人口的城乡流动与迁移以及社会变量中各因素对跨省婚迁产生正向影响,而文化变量中的各因素则形成负向影响。     

中国老年人口迁移的选择性

本文利用2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据,描述老年人口跨地市级迁移的结构特征。研究发现,我国老年人口依旧把经济发达地带、大城市作为主要迁入地,与青壮年人口迁移方向产生同构。城乡老年迁移人口在迁移动机上存在很大的差别,城市户籍老年迁移人口受家庭因素驱动更大,农村户籍老年人的迁移原因更多元。从对迁入地的影响来看,国内老年迁移人口的迁入地过于集中,将对迁入地的社会医疗服务设施等构成巨大的压力。     

Population pressures in Latin America

In 1950 Latin America's population of 165 million was on a par with the 166 million of North America. 2 decades of growth at nearly 3% a year pushed the total to 405 million in 1985, vs. 264 million in North America. Despite substantial fertility declines since the 1960s, continued growth is ensured by the demographic momentum built into the region's large and youthful population bases. UN medium projections put the 2025 total at 779 million, compared to 345 million in North America. This Bulletin examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II and their links to economic and social changes in the region as well as their implications for international and social relations. The post World War II population surge was accompanied by massive rural-ruban and international migration, rapid urbanization, large labor shifts out of agriculture into industry and services, increased education for both men and women, and higher labor force participation for females. The rural exodus was spurred by extreme land tenure inequalities and the urban bias of postwar industrialization. The labor-saving bias of this industrialization forced exploding city populations to turn to the informal sector for jobs. Population pressures on city services and housing as well as jobs have been further exacerbated by overconcentration in a few large cities and economic downturns of the 1980s. Recent fertility declines seem to be the result of both increased access to family planning and the economic and social pressures posed by the gap between young adults' aspirations and their ability to realize them. Population and economic pressures could induce faster fertility declines than now projected but in the short run are likely to mean more employment problems, continued rapid urban growth, and even larger international immigration flows within the hemisphere, particularly to the US.     

Aboriginal migration to the cities

Aboriginal migration to the cities is frequently assumed to be adding to the population of urban Aborigines. An analysis of actual patterns of Aboriginal migration to the large Australian cities (major urban areas), using data from the 1981 and 1986 Australian Censuses, shows that the major urban areas of New South Wales and Victoria were actually losing Aboriginal population through net migration throughout the period 1976 to 1986. At both inter-State level and country-to-city lev/el, any Aboriginal migration flow in one direction tends to be almost cancelled out by a flow of similar size in the opposite direction. However, there are definite age-specific patterns. In particular, there is movement of young single adults to the cities, often counterbalanced by migration of somewhat older adults with their children to the country. Aboriginal migrants have higher levels of labour-force participation than equivalent categories of non-migrants.     

就业迁移的人力资本差别效应——以长三角为例

随着我国城市化的快速发展,人口迁移流动在城市社会生活中的影响日益突出。人口迁移流动必然引起“人”自身所拥有的人力资本的动态配置。文章主要利用2000年全国第五次人口普查迁移数据等有关数据资料,分析长三角16城市就业迁移的人力资本差别效应。研究发现,就业迁移对长三角各城市人力资本具有显著的差别效应,并且长三角内的就业迁移与长三角外的就业迁移对长三角各城市人力资本提升或稀释效应也有明显差别。研究还发现,就业迁移导致长三角人力资本城际差异缩小,尤以上海与其他15城市的差距缩小更为明显。