Invoking Public Opinion: Policy Elites and Social Security

Do policy elites invoke public opinion? When they do, are theirclaims based on evidence from public opinion surveys? To learnabout the claims that policy elites make, we examined statementsthe president and members of Congress, experts, and interestgroup leaders in congressional hearings made about Social Security.To learn about opinion data on Social Security, we conducteda Lexis-Nexis search of the archives of the Roper Center forPublic Opinion Research. Our analyses show that policy elitesdiscussing Social Security did invoke public opinion. Contraryto our expectations, however, few of the elite invocations ofpublic opinion cited specific surveys or concrete facts aboutthe distribution of opinion. Although claims directly contradictingsurvey evidence were relatively rare, only with the rather fewspecific claims by congressional elites did we find much clear-cutsupport in the available polling data. Relatively seldom couldwe find clear-cut support for the elites' general claims. Moreover,some of the most frequent claims about public opinion—couldhave been contested but seldom were. The highly visible andwell-polled case of Social Security suggests that specific,data-based elite invocations of public opinion may be even lesscommon on other, lower-visibility and less-polled issues. Italso suggests that survey research professionals might do wellto intensify their scrutiny of public discourse about publicopinion and to increase their efforts to bring scientific expertiseto bear upon such discourse.     

Examining Variance in Presidential Approval: The Case of FDR in World War II

Despite the substantive growth and increasing methodologicalsophistication of the presidential approval literature overthe last four decades, almost all analyses continue to focusexclusively on the mean of the approval distribution—thepercentage of Americans who approve of the president at a givenmoment. However, changes in the variance of popular supportfor the president may be as politically and substantively importantas shifts in the mean. To illustrate how a focus on variancecan enrich our understanding of changes in the president’spublic standing, this analysis examines the effects of the economyand World War II on the variance in popular support for FranklinD. Roosevelt. At the aggregate level, the study shows that highpeacetime unemployment and mounting casualties increased thevolatility of FDR’s standing among federal relief recipients,erstwhile his most consistent base of support. At the individuallevel, the analysis demonstrates that individuals with conflictingpartisan, economic, and war-related considerations for evaluatingthe president were more variable in their approval of Rooseveltthan were other respondents. Exporting a similar focus on varianceto other lines of research across the public opinion subfieldcould produce a richer understanding of the complex processesdriving opinion change over time.     

Letter Opinion on ERA: A Test of the Newspaper Bias Hypothesis

This paper compares letter opinion (opinions expressed in publishedletters-to-the-editor) with public opinion on ERA. Prior researchhas suggested that letter opinion is biased by atypical letterwriters or by newspaper editorial policies which are used toselect letters for publication. Drawing on a national sampleof 92 daily newspapers, no substantial difference between letteropinion and public opinion on ERA is detected. Little supportis found for the hypothesis that newspaper policies bias letteropinion.     

An Experiment on the Measurement of Political Knowledge in Surveys

In a series of articles, Mondak and colleagues argue that theconventional way of measuring political knowledge in surveysis flawed. Personality related "propensity to guess" underestimatesthe level of political knowledge in the population and distortsestimates of between group differences, when a DK alternativeis offered. This has led Mondak to recommend the use of closed-endeditems on which DKs are not explicitly offered, following bestpractice in the field of educational testing. In this article,we present the results of an experimental study which callsinto question the wisdom of this approach. Our results showlittle evidence of partial knowledge concealed within DK responses;when people who initially select a DK alternative are subsequentlyasked to provide a "best guess," they fare statistically nobetter than chance. We conclude that opinion researchers shouldbe cautious about adopting Mondak's recommendations for thedesign of political knowledge items in surveys. Received for publication February 22, 2005. Revision received October 19, 2006. Accepted for publication October 25, 2006.     

WHY THEY LIKED IKE: Tradition, Crisis, and Heroic Leadership

Much is known about Dwight Eisenhower's accomplishments as wartime general and postwar president; however, little is known about the reasons for his extraordinary popularity. Drawing from opinion polls, popular media, and related sources this article shows how Eisenhower's achievements and public conduct resonated with the concerns and values of his generation. "Symbolic leadership" theory and the "action theory" of heroic leadership frame this twofold articulation of Eisenhower's midcentury image, but we place it in a broader perspective centered on tradition, crisis, and generational change. We thus explain not only why Eisenhower's reputation was so strong during the postwar years but also why it declined so sharply after his death, even while other American leaders' reputations remained intact.     

Private Polls and Presidential Policymaking: Reagan as a Facilitator of Change

Did the Reagan administration disregard majority will when craftingits policy initiatives? Did it cater to a narrow partisan constituencyinstead? The answers to these questions will help with an assessmentof Jacobs and Shapiro’s (2000b) hypothesis that presidentssince the late 1970s have used private White House survey researchas a tool to manipulate or assuage centrist public opinion whilemeeting the policy demands of their partisan core supporters,resulting in a decline in presidential responsiveness to majoritywill. Using the actual surveys administered by Richard Wirthlin(Reagan’s pollster) between 1981 and 1983, this articlewill demonstrate the level of consistency between majority opinionon 129 policy issues and Reagan’s behavior through 1984,and it will explore the conditions under which the presidentwas more or less likely to respond to public preferences. Thedata reveal that the Reagan administration was constrained bythe popular will in predicable ways: if the policy issues wereabout domestic concerns, highly popular, and visible in themedia, then the administration acted in line with public preferencesmore than 70 percent of the time. Further, Reagan and his adviserswere selective in responding to party activists: they championedissues drawn from their conservative ideological agenda thatfit with the current tide in public opinion, while sidesteppingother issues dear to party activists that encountered strongmajority resistance. While I do not contest Jacobs and Shapiro’s(2000b) important observation that presidents often use surveyresearch to "craft talk" in an attempt to channel the publicdebate, the evidence here highlights how the president nonethelessremains constrained by the popular will, at least on domesticissues.     

Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and the 1998 House Elections

The outcome of the 1998 congressional elections was an exceptionto the rule that the president's party loses seats in midtermHouse elections. This article reviews and draws together theoreticallythe distinctive characteristics of the political context in1998 and assesses the effects of the public's evaluations ofBill Clinton (as president and as a person) and Speaker of theHouse Newt Gingrich. The findings suggest that voters' viewsof Bill Clinton as president exerted a sizable effect on theelections. A substantial influence of public opinion towardNewt Gingrich is also revealed. The estimated effects of voters'opinions of Bill Clinton as a person were much smaller. Twoestimates of the combined effects indicate that if public opiniontoward Clinton and Gingrich had been evenly balanced, the Democraticparty would have lost seats in the 1998 House elections as thepresident's party traditionally has. In addition to providinginsight into the 1998 elections, the findings answer broaderquestions about congressional elections. They also bear on importantquestions regarding the extent to which the determinants ofpolitical judgments are subject to influence ("priming") bythe political environment.     

Lyndon Johnson and the Public Polls

This article examines the relationship between President LyndonJohnson and those who take published polls. As his poll ratingsdeclined, Johnson used a number of methods to convince thosewith influence that he was more popular than the polls indicated.These methods included direct and indirect attacks on the polls,leaks of private polls, attempts to influence the results, andcourting the pollsters. The article argues that the last ofthese poses a danger to the objectivity of the pollsters. Secretlygiving advice to and taking private polls for a president areincompatible with the role of objective measurer of public opinion.     

THE RISE OF PRESIDENTIAL POLLING THE NIXON WHITE HOUSE IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

This article traces the institutional development of presidentialpolling of public opinion. We suggest that Kennedy, Johnson,and especially Nixon developed the institution of the presidencyto include a "public opinion apparatus"—an operation thatwas centralized in the White House and devoted to assemblingpublic opinion data and conducting extensive public relationsactivities. According to interviews with former officials andarchival records, this apparatus had its roots in Kennedy's1960 presidential campaign, but during the Johnson and Nixonpresidencies it developed into a regular and enduring institutionfor connecting presidential activity with public opinion.     

Fear of the "Alien Other": Cultural Anxiety and Opinions about Japan

American public opinion toward Japan grew more negative coincident with 1980s "Japan-bashing" media messages. Two theories of opinion formation provide explanations for this. Democratic representation theory understands opinions as rational responses to new information. Cultural interpretation theory holds that public opinion is based on one's receptiveness to media discourse. Opinion is neither a rational response to information nor the passive acceptance of elite dictates. People differentially interpret media messages and form opinions in a process that is shaped by media attentiveness and their subjective cultural anxieties. Survey data permit an indirect test of the two theories applied to anti-Japan opinion. OLS regression analysis performed on GSS for four time periods reveals that anti-Japan opinion is rooted less in "rational" responses to personal economic insecurity or fear of increased global competition than in racial attitudes and domestic social-cultural concerns. America's negative opinion toward Japan in the 1990s is better understood as domestic anxieties that are redirected toward a symbolic target that the mass media has highlighted.     

Woman,man, lady,horse: Jane Stewart,public relations executive

Public relations scholars know very little about the women who participated in formal public relations before the 1970s, not even about such women as Jane Stewart, who served as vice president and then president of Group Attitudes Corporation, an independent consulting firm that became a subsidiary of Hill and Knowlton of New York in 1956. Because she was virtually alone among women at the top consulting firms, Stewart was forced to perform a delicate balancing act.Jane Stewart prospered in the man's world of a Manhattan agency by accepting the conservative values of the field and the era. But she also developed a collaborative management style and maintained a female, if not feminist, perspective that at times gave her clients a different outlook on public relations problems. This article describes Stewart's career in the context of women's participation in formal public relations.The author is an assistant professor in the Henry W. Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Georgia.     

Following the "Mail Hawks": Alternative Measures of Public Opinion on Vietnam in the Johnson White House

Scholars argue that public opinion grew in importance duringthe Vietnam conflict, yet most find President Johnson was notresponsive to public opinion during the War. We amplify thesetheories by demonstrating the practical value of public opinionmail sent to the White House on Vietnam, reshaping theoriesabout the constraining role of public opinion in foreign policy.We find that the White House mail, but not opinion polling,favoring escalation of the War had a significant and positiveimpact on President Johnson's policy rhetoric. From these andsimilar findings, we conclude that the Johnson Administrationfollowed core "hawkish" political allies (those individualsdesiring a rapid escalation and quick end to the war) ratherthan those approving of a withdrawal, suggesting mail-gaugedopinion from electoral partners (and core political allies morebroadly) has value in foreign policy making.     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

Lumpers and Splitters: The Public Opinion Information that Politicians Collect and Use

Are the decisions of American policymakers informed by generaltrends in the public’s ideology or by the public’spolicy-specific preferences? In this article we discuss twoexplanations for the types of public opinion information thatpoliticians collect and use. Using a unique data set of privatepolls from the White House of Richard Nixon, we find that whenopinion data on specific policies were available, the presidentrelied on them and not on general ideology data. On less importantissues, however, we find that the president often chose notto collect policy-specific data and instead relied on generalideology data. The differential collection and use of informationby policymakers reflect varying strategic calculations. Theyalso have profound implications for representative democracyand the demands placed on citizens and governors.     

Drug Peddlers: How Four Presidents Attempted to Influence Media and Public Concern on the Drug Issue

This agenda-building study examined the presidencies of Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush to determine to what degree they influenced media and public concern for the drug issue. This study found a complex reciprocal relation between the president, the public, and the press, with results differing depending what president and newspapers were studied. However, when the data are examined across the various presidents rather than on individual leaders, the agenda-setting process is especially powerful with 8 of the 9 predicted paths proving significant. This study discovered that the president plays an equal or greater role than the media in the agenda-building process. The path between presidential statements and public approval was higher than the one between the media and the public. Although public approval polls drove both media coverage and presidential statements, the polls had a greater effect on the media. Finally, the path from presidential statements to subsequent media coverage was just as strong as the one from media coverage to subsequent presidential statements. Agenda-setting researchers, then, should not ignore the effects of the president and other officials on the agenda-setting process.     

STRUCTURING POLITICAL OPINIONS:

Political democracy assumes that citizens can form consistent political attitudes that guide their political actions, thereby communicating political preferences to elites. Responding to the longstanding debate about the democratic competence of the U.S. mass public, we use a multitiered framework of opinion formation to describe the structure of mass opinion, showing that the mass public displays relatively consistent responses across multiple issues and uses these to evaluate presidential candidates. Confirmatory factor analysis allows us to examine multiple models of political attitudes, showing the best fit to be three positively correlated general orientations for economic, social, and racial issues. We find no significant racial or educational differences in the structuring of these attitudes but some evidence of "race-coding" of economic issues and class differences in levels of support for economic and social liberalism. Liberal/conservative self-identification operates as a basic structuring principle for organizing these general orientations with liberals and conservatives assigning different salience to specific issues. These general political orientations, in turn, influence presidential evaluations net of party loyalties. Although the mass public may not be ideologically sophisticated, it is "deliberative and reasonable" in its political thinking and, in this sense, democratically competent.     

Public Management at the Ballot Box: Performance Information and Electoral Support for Incumbent English Local Governments

Publishing performance information about local public services,an increasing trend in many Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development countries, matters politically because it hasan effect on incumbent local governments' electoral support.Voters are able to use performance information to punish orreward incumbents in the elections that follow their publication,which may fill a gap in the chain of accountability betweenvoters and governments. We model the introduction of publishedComprehensive Performance Assessments of local authorities inEngland, which make summary information about performance availableto voters, as a "shock" to the relationship between voters andincumbents. Controlling for an unpublicized measure of performancechange over time, change in the local tax level, change in localeconomic conditions, and whether the local incumbent is theparty of the incumbent government at the national level, wefind negativity bias. Incumbents in local authorities in the"poor" performance category experience a substantial reductionin aggregate vote share at the election following publication,but there is no similarly sized reward for those in the highestperformance category.     

Aiming for the discursive high ground: Monsanto and the biotechnology controversy

The past several years have seen the publication of a great deal of exciting theoretical work on ideology and discourse. There has, however, been much less empirical work in the area. In this essay, we undertake a study of a specific set of discursive products developed by Monsanto Corporation in its efforts to shape public opinion and the terms of debate in the controversy over the development of biotechnology. Drawing on existing work, we suggest that relationships between signifiers and signifieds are not natural, but social creations, and that the creation of signs is often the product of social struggles. We show how Monsanto has drawn on discursive elements with historical resonance to create an image of biotechnology that the company hopes will lead to public support for the technology or, at the very least, will stifle opposition.     

Presidential Popularityand Presidential Elections

Current Research This section of POQ is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unresolved problems,methodological studies, and public opinion data not extensivelyanalyzed or interpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed,as well as hypotheses and insights that may be useful to otherstudents of public opinion. Usually, materialin this sectionis shorter, more informal, and more tentative than in precedingpages.     

Some Things That Concern Me

To improve the craft of opinion research the author makes theserecommendations: (1) emphasize the "art" side of opinion research,(2) avoid establishing strict standards of performance, (3)push for more disclosure than the present code calls for, and(4) substitute question wording for sampling error statementin public release of poll results.